Author Topic: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)  (Read 28606 times)

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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #150 on: February 16, 2017, 07:03:18 AM »
I don't think we know or ever will know the budget details. But I found it interesting that the Casting Call was supported by Taiwan. I see the Travel Show itself, but a casting call is new I believe. By all reports they were very gracious hosts, so  :tu !! But strange...
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Offline docol

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #151 on: February 16, 2017, 09:48:57 AM »
so...any hints on when we can start tracking racers again?  :bump
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Offline Marionete

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #152 on: February 17, 2017, 01:07:41 PM »
Question, about how much of TAR's budget is subsidized by the local tourism offices/departments? Do some countries pay more than others? (Maybe some not at all? and they only provide logistical support, etc?)

I only ask because it got me thinking about how Indonesia basically paid for half of TARA5. And if TARUS is to survive past TAR29, one way that would be possible is for them to reach out to countries/local offices who would be willing to basically pay for that TAR commercial time, lessening the "out of pocket" expense for TAR itself which will surely have an even lower budget moving forward, regardless.
Hmm... I understand the budget matters, but don't you think that, if TAR keeps losing viewers (or even stays steadily 'low' as it is now), CBS will try to find new shows to replace it and potentially get more viewers? Hunted seems like such a trial to me tbh..

Offline dryedmangoez

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #153 on: February 18, 2017, 02:37:27 AM »
Hmm... I understand the budget matters, but don't you think that, if TAR keeps losing viewers (or even stays steadily 'low' as it is now), CBS will try to find new shows to replace it and potentially get more viewers? Hunted seems like such a trial to me tbh..
Obviously. It'll already take a miracle for TAR30 to ever exist. That's why if ever that miracle happened, getting funded by local tourism agencies may help make it happen like Indonesia did for TARA5.

Offline RealityFan11

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #154 on: February 18, 2017, 12:27:01 PM »
Countries I think will be visited on TAR30:
● Australia
● Fiji
● Japan
● Taiwan
● India
● Germany
● Switzerland

Countries I want to be viisted on TAR30
● South Africa
● Kenya
● Cyprus
● Belize
● Finland


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #155 on: February 18, 2017, 12:36:12 PM »
Let's use the WISHLIST thread please.

Since Taiwan and Fiji sponsored the latest casting call we could def see them.
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Offline BourkieBoy

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #156 on: February 18, 2017, 04:50:01 PM »
Countries I think will be visited on TAR30:
● Australia
● Fiji
● Japan
● Taiwan
● India
● Germany
● Switzerland

Countries I want to be viisted on TAR30
● South Africa
● Kenya
● Cyprus
● Belize
● Finland

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Offline RealityFan11

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #157 on: February 20, 2017, 03:48:54 PM »
For speculation about locations, particularly countries visited, I'm going to look at the last 10 seasons (20-29).

There were 8 new countries visited during this period (Paraguay, Azerbaijan, Malta, Monaco, Zimbabwe, Colombia, Armenia, & Georgia); although not technically countries themselves, French Polynesia, Northern Ireland, and Wales could be included in this list. That averages out to about 1 new country per season, so I predict one new country to be visited in Season 30. As for that, let's look at other countries first.

So I looked at each country visited in each season, including French Polynesia, Northern Ireland, & Wales (but not the US Virgin Islands, as it is a territory of the host country - the United States). I produced the following list. Note that the number next to each country is the number of times the country had been visited before each respective season. The number next to each season number is each of its countries added up. I'm going to call the number next to each season number it's "score."

Twenty (29)
Argentina (4)
Paraguay (0)
Italy (4)
Germany (6)
Azerbaijan (0)
Tanzania (2)
India (9)
Japan (4)

Twenty One (27)
China (9)
Indonesia (1)
Bangladesh (1)
Turkey (1)
Russia (5)
Netherlands (3)
Spain (2)
France (5)

Twenty Two (23)
French Polynesia (0)
New Zealand (3)
Indonesia (2)
Vietnam (3)
Botswana (1)
Switzerland (3)
Germany (7)
Scotland (1)
Northern Ireland (0)
England (3)

Twenty Three (21)
Chile (3)
Portugal (1)
Norway (2)
Poland (1)
Austria (4)
United Arab Emirates (2)
Indonesia (3)
Japan (5)

Twenty Four (31)
China (10)
Malaysia (4)
Sri Lanka (1)
Italy (5)
Switzerland (4)
Spain (3)
England (4)
Wales (0)

Twenty Five (22)
England (5)
Scotland (2)
Denmark (1)
Sweden (3)
Morocco (2)
Italy (6)
Malta (0)
Singapore (2)
Philippines (1)

Twenty Six (31)
Japan (6)
Thailand (5)
Germany (8)
France (6)
Monaco (0)
Namibia (1)
Netherlands (4)
Peru (1)

Twenty Seven (45)
Brazil (4)
Argentina (5)
Zambia (1)
Zimbabwe (0)
France (7)
Netherlands (5)
Poland (2)
India (10)
China (11)

Twenty Eight (33)
Mexico (1)
Colombia (0)
Switzerland (5)
France (8)
Armenia (0)
Georgia (0)
United Arab Emirates (3)
Indonesia (4)
China (12)

Twenty Nine (27)
Panama (2)
Brazil (5)
Tanzania (3)
Norway (3)
Italy (7)
Greece (1)
Vietnam (4)
South Korea (2)

The average score is 28.9, so I'm going to reasonably assume Season Thirty will have a score of 29. So how will it get to 29? Well, it depends on the countries visited. Of the last ten seasons, all but one visited either 8 or 9 foreign countries, with Season Twenty Two visiting 10. Let's be liberal and say that Season Thirty will visit nine foreign countries. If just two of those are China and India, then Season Thirty will already have a score of 24! Unless the remaining countries have only been visited once before or not at all, then the score will overshoot our goal of 29.

So, let's talk about continents. As I ❤️ TAR mentioned, South America will probably be skipped, as it has been visited in each of the last four seasons. Seasons Twenty Eight and Twenty Nine both visited North America, both Spanish-Speaking countries (Mexico and Panama, respectively). As such I believe Season Thirty will skip North America UNLESS it is an English speaking country like Belize, Canada, the Bahamas, or a small Caribbean island. But I personally believe this chance is small. As for Africa, I personally do not think it will be visited. It has been visited in six of the last ten seasons. It's a true toss up honestly, but I personally think it will be skipped.

With this, I can predict a visit to Oceania, Asia, and Europe, probably in that order too. If Season Thirty starts off with two legs in Australia (as everyone - including me - is predicting), it will start out with a score of 4. So, legs 3-11 will have a combined score of 25, with 7 or 8 countries left to visit. Let's just divide up the remaining 9 legs between Asia and Europe for all intents and purposes, and say that legs 3-6 are in Asia and 7-11 are in Europe. Where will legs 3, 4, 5, & 6 going to take place? I'd say safe guessed are countries with scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3 are as follows:

Asian Countries with Scores of 0:
Brunei
Laos
Myanmar
Qatar
Nepal
Bhutan
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Jordan
 
Asian Countries with Scores of 1:
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kuwait
Mongolia

Asian Countries with Scores of 2:
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Oman
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Taiwan

Asian Countries with Scores of 3:
Singapore
South Korea

Now of course South Korea and the Caucasus are out. I'd reasonably assume Philippines, Brunei or Laos, and Singapore to take up legs 3-5 or 6, with leg 6 or possibly 7 in the Middle East or one of the Stans.

Now if legs 1-6 follow as stated, we have achieved a score of between 10-15. With legs 7-11 in Europe, we have roughly 14-19 points to go to achieve our goal of 29. This will be pretty easy, especially considering that every winter season since Season Fourteen has visited a Germanic country in Central Europe. If we say leg 7 is in Germany, that adds 9 points to our score! This is okay, as there are several unvisited countries in Europe. Let's analyze Europe as we just did with Asia:

European countries with a score of 0:
Latvia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Luxembourg
Bulgaria
Serbia
Albania
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Montenegro
Macedonia

European countries with a score of 1:
Belgium
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Finland
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Lithuania
Liechtenstein
Malta
Monaco
Romania
Ukraine

European countries with a score of 2:
Denmark
Greece
Portugal
turkey

European countries with a score of 3:
Poland

I'd say that, especially with a leg or two in countries with a high score like Germany, France, or Italy, 3 or 4 legs could be located in countries with scores of one or zero!

As for the finale. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the there have only been three times the finale had teams fly from Europe to the West Coast (Seasons Thirteen, Fifteen, and Twenty Four). I'd say a finale in Seattle or California is inviting, especially since these three seasons ended in Portland (13) and Las Vegas (15 & 24).

Thus concludes my analysis. Enjoy :)
Netherlands was actually visited 4 times prior to TAR21, so when you add up the scores you are 3 points off, however the average is 29.2 which rounds to 29 so you're good

Offline WalterC

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #158 on: February 20, 2017, 04:23:11 PM »
Well, I am hoping for a Season 30, and think it would be the good time to give it a final sendoff. And 30 is a nice round number, to cap off a nice run on TV.

But with CBS, I don't see it as likely. And even more rare to do final sendoffs with reality shows.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #159 on: February 20, 2017, 06:14:21 PM »
I am thinking/hoping it is WHEN not IF.  And that it will be a yearly show thereafter.

But :duno:
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Offline GMR 602

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #160 on: February 20, 2017, 07:05:13 PM »
Why are they wasting money on casting calls if they are not going to shoot 30?

I Think this show is quite cheap to produce and does amazing in Canada and most countries outside of the US

I think 29 will do especially well

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Pre
« Reply #161 on: February 20, 2017, 07:14:22 PM »
Why are they wasting money on casting calls if they are not going to shoot 30?



"They" meaning who??  CBS??

CBS did NOT pay for the SF casting call. Taiwan Tourism did.


And let's say :thankyou:
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Offline theamazingracer21

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Re: TAR 30: Pre
« Reply #162 on: February 20, 2017, 09:22:26 PM »
Why are they wasting money on casting calls if they are not going to shoot 30?



"They" meaning who??  CBS??

CBS did NOT pay for the SF casting call. Taiwan Tourism did.


And let's say :thankyou:
Thank you Taiwan Tourism.

Offline TARUSAFan

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #163 on: February 20, 2017, 09:39:36 PM »
I'm hoping that Season 30 will never be the last ever season. I would be so freaking pissed. It was TAR that fuelled my passion to travel.

Offline BourkieBoy

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #164 on: February 20, 2017, 10:50:52 PM »
TAR 30 NEEDS to come!
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Offline Marionete

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #165 on: February 21, 2017, 11:24:49 AM »
I don't really understand some people here saying that TAR is a cheap show to make ??? Surely buying so many tickets last minute (for all the production), paying for the teams stays and various props is expensive?

I am certainly unable to give concrete sums, but I'd assume TAR is much much more expensive that BB or Survivor.

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Re: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)
« Reply #166 on: February 21, 2017, 05:44:05 PM »
I don't remember the source but Reality is almost always cheaper than Scripted shows.

Offline Plaidmoon

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I don't really understand some people here saying that TAR is a cheap show to make ??? Surely buying so many tickets last minute (for all the production), paying for the teams stays and various props is expensive?

I am certainly unable to give concrete sums, but I'd assume TAR is much much more expensive that BB or Survivor.

Production generally doesn't have to buy tickets at the last minute. They know in advance where the race is going. Maybe every once in a while events cause them to have to make a last minute change in plans, but not often enough to be a budget buster. Even Phil and BVM can probably buy tickets in advance. Teams and camera crews have to buy last minute tickets at high cost, but the cost goes down as teams get eliminated. Even in an early leg, with 40-50 people buying last minute tickets, it probably doesn't often exceed $100,000 for the last minute tickets and that's not an overly big expense for an hour long show that doesn't have to pay for a studio or build sets, etc. Overall, travel is probably the biggest expense for the show.

 

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