Author Topic: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)  (Read 81119 times)

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Offline georgiapeach

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The TAR casting thread has NOT updated its homepage. Same one for pre-29.

However, the FAQ's alone have been updated, and now read:

Quote
We are casting now for a race that travels sometime between October 2016 and January 2017,  for approximately 25-30 days.

http://www.theamazingracecasting.com/Faq

Interesting indeed, as TAR 30 has widely been speculated to be another returning racers of some sort.

If I remember correctly, the Application page for the last All-Stars was not updated before the Race. ???

This is interesting because for the first time in ages we are not on the Fall Schedule. Possibly to give TPTB a chance to take a close look at 29 and be sure this unusual cast worked as well as we hoped. Possibly to see what the Emmy brings. Possibly due to ratings.

But 30 filming was never in doubt from what I have been hearing.

But this may suggest that there is some consideration now being given for a non all returning racers season. Or not.  :funny:

Giving all this, seems time to proceed with some pre-race SPECULATION, discussion on the possibility of returning racers vs not, and more.

Note that this is NOT a Wishlist thread. Educated spec on locations is okay, as is discussion on casting.

But WISHLISTS will be deleted.

I don't think we can avoid discussion of the cast and locations of TAR 29, but ANY OUTCOME REVEALS will NOT be allowed. So please be VERY careful.

Have fun!


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Offline georgiapeach

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I ♥ TAR got us started, here is that post!

I hope it isn't to early for this thread... 

Season 30 is supposed to filming sometime between October 2016 and January 2017 according to TAR casting website.

So let's speculate!  :conf: :cheer:



From last 4 seasons, 3 seasons were with some gimmick so I guess TAR 30 will be another classic one, also because it's beggining of new "3x" era, so they will try this season to be memorable.

My guess is only 4 MF teams because of TAR 26/TAR 29 with 9 MF teams in casts, and TAR 27/TAR 28 where all 5 MF teams made F7. Combination of 4 MM & 3 FF or 4 FF & 3 MM then.


Route:

South America - We had SA visited 4 seasons in the row which is record for TAR, so I'm think no SA for this season. Definitely not in the first legs again, I think.

Australia and Oceania - Last visit in season 22. I think it's time. Melbourne? Tasmania?

Africa - I would say yes. Guessing some safari legs in already visited country.

Asia - already visited countries, maybe Laos finally? Classic combination of chaotic dirty legs + 1 leg in modern city ala Tokio, Hong Kong, Singapur, imo.

Europe - I would rule out France, Belgium and Germany because of migration crisis and threat of terrorist attacks. No Russia, Ukraine and Turkey because of politic situation. They love doing "winter" legs at this time, so probably some mountain area in West Europe or Scandinavia.


My final guess is 5 continents race without SA.  :)

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Online Maanca

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 They seem to like to theme the even-numbered seasons lately. 24 was all-returnees, 26 was all-dating, and 28 was all-social media.

30 is possible for returnees, since there was also a 6 season gap between the last one, Unfinished Business.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2016, 11:04:04 PM by Maanca »

Offline gamerfan09

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We need a good returnee season to erase 24. Look at Unfinished Business and All-Stars 1, both were pretty good in the ratings!
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Offline dryedmangoez

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Well, wherever TAR29 ends up airing, I hope it does well enough to not banish TAR30 to CBS All Access.


Offline I ♥ TAR

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I really hope it's either full returnees or full newbies season then. No mixed season, please! (It never worked in Survivor.) ALSO NO THREE PEATERS!!!


There are some obvious choices who would be 99% asked to race again:
Kim & Alli (25)
Hayley & Blair (26)
Tiffany & Krista (27)
Tyler & Corey (28)

High chance of being asked back:
Adam & Bethany (25)
Jeff & Jackie (26) - because of BB
Tanner & Josh (27)
Denise & James Earl/Sherri & Cole - but they would compete for 1 spot, imo.

This is just speculation based on how popular/memorable that teams are.  :)

Offline stekay

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Despite previously not going back to older seasons I wonder if the success of Survivor digging into its archive for returnees would inspire TAR to also finally consider going back pre UB.

Offline fossil-racer

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Despite previously not going back to older seasons I wonder if the success of Survivor digging into its archive for returnees would inspire TAR to also finally consider going back pre UB.
I would like this but with a 11 team norm, I think they should stick with TAR 25-TAR29. Some great teams the past couple of seasons.
Honestly, they should make TAR 30 the last season and end with a all-stars or move the show to all-access.

For TAR 30, they are bound to go back to Australia/Oceania. Its been a long time.

If they do all newbies, they need like a fresh out of this world all around good cast, like or better than TAR 25. (TAR CAN casting is a good starting pt.)
I don't think they'll they do another gimmick season but if they do, make it interesting like Olympic teams/route or 12 teams of Brain Brawn and Beauty.
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Offline Brannockdevice

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For speculation about locations, particularly countries visited, I'm going to look at the last 10 seasons (20-29).

There were 8 new countries visited during this period (Paraguay, Azerbaijan, Malta, Monaco, Zimbabwe, Colombia, Armenia, & Georgia); although not technically countries themselves, French Polynesia, Northern Ireland, and Wales could be included in this list. That averages out to about 1 new country per season, so I predict one new country to be visited in Season 30. As for that, let's look at other countries first.

So I looked at each country visited in each season, including French Polynesia, Northern Ireland, & Wales (but not the US Virgin Islands, as it is a territory of the host country - the United States). I produced the following list. Note that the number next to each country is the number of times the country had been visited before each respective season. The number next to each season number is each of its countries added up. I'm going to call the number next to each season number it's "score."

Twenty (29)
• Argentina (4)
• Paraguay (0)
• Italy (4)
• Germany (6)
• Azerbaijan (0)
• Tanzania (2)
• India (9)
• Japan (4)

Twenty One (27)
• China (9)
• Indonesia (1)
• Bangladesh (1)
• Turkey (1)
• Russia (5)
• Netherlands (3)
• Spain (2)
• France (5)

Twenty Two (23)
• French Polynesia (0)
• New Zealand (3)
• Indonesia (2)
• Vietnam (3)
• Botswana (1)
• Switzerland (3)
• Germany (7)
• Scotland (1)
• Northern Ireland (0)
• England (3)

Twenty Three (21)
• Chile (3)
• Portugal (1)
• Norway (2)
• Poland (1)
• Austria (4)
• United Arab Emirates (2)
• Indonesia (3)
• Japan (5)

Twenty Four (31)
• China (10)
• Malaysia (4)
• Sri Lanka (1)
• Italy (5)
• Switzerland (4)
• Spain (3)
• England (4)
• Wales (0)

Twenty Five (22)
• England (5)
• Scotland (2)
• Denmark (1)
• Sweden (3)
• Morocco (2)
• Italy (6)
• Malta (0)
• Singapore (2)
• Philippines (1)

Twenty Six (31)
• Japan (6)
• Thailand (5)
• Germany (8)
• France (6)
• Monaco (0)
• Namibia (1)
• Netherlands (4)
• Peru (1)

Twenty Seven (45)
• Brazil (4)
• Argentina (5)
• Zambia (1)
• Zimbabwe (0)
• France (7)
• Netherlands (5)
• Poland (2)
• India (10)
• China (11)

Twenty Eight (33)
• Mexico (1)
• Colombia (0)
• Switzerland (5)
• France (8)
• Armenia (0)
• Georgia (0)
• United Arab Emirates (3)
• Indonesia (4)
• China (12)

Twenty Nine (27)
• Panama (2)
• Brazil (5)
• Tanzania (3)
• Norway (3)
• Italy (7)
• Greece (1)
• Vietnam (4)
• South Korea (2)

The average score is 28.9, so I'm going to reasonably assume Season Thirty will have a score of 29. So how will it get to 29? Well, it depends on the countries visited. Of the last ten seasons, all but one visited either 8 or 9 foreign countries, with Season Twenty Two visiting 10. Let's be liberal and say that Season Thirty will visit nine foreign countries. If just two of those are China and India, then Season Thirty will already have a score of 24! Unless the remaining countries have only been visited once before or not at all, then the score will overshoot our goal of 29.

So, let's talk about continents. As I ❤️ TAR mentioned, South America will probably be skipped, as it has been visited in each of the last four seasons. Seasons Twenty Eight and Twenty Nine both visited North America, both Spanish-Speaking countries (Mexico and Panama, respectively). As such I believe Season Thirty will skip North America UNLESS it is an English speaking country like Belize, Canada, the Bahamas, or a small Caribbean island. But I personally believe this chance is small. As for Africa, I personally do not think it will be visited. It has been visited in six of the last ten seasons. It's a true toss up honestly, but I personally think it will be skipped.

With this, I can predict a visit to Oceania, Asia, and Europe, probably in that order too. If Season Thirty starts off with two legs in Australia (as everyone - including me - is predicting), it will start out with a score of 4. So, legs 3-11 will have a combined score of 25, with 7 or 8 countries left to visit. Let's just divide up the remaining 9 legs between Asia and Europe for all intents and purposes, and say that legs 3-6 are in Asia and 7-11 are in Europe. Where will legs 3, 4, 5, & 6 going to take place? I'd say safe guessed are countries with scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3 are as follows:

Asian Countries with Scores of 0:
• Brunei
• Laos
• Myanmar
• Qatar
• Nepal
• Bhutan
• Kyrgyzstan
• Uzbekistan
• Jordan
 
Asian Countries with Scores of 1:
• Armenia
• Azerbaijan
• Georgia
• Kazakhstan
• Kuwait
• Mongolia

Asian Countries with Scores of 2:
• Bangladesh
• Cambodia
• Oman
• Philippines
• Sri Lanka
• Taiwan

Asian Countries with Scores of 3:
• Singapore
• South Korea

Now of course South Korea and the Caucasus are out. I'd reasonably assume Philippines, Brunei or Laos, and Singapore to take up legs 3-5 or 6, with leg 6 or possibly 7 in the Middle East or one of the Stans.

Now if legs 1-6 follow as stated, we have achieved a score of between 10-15. With legs 7-11 in Europe, we have roughly 14-19 points to go to achieve our goal of 29. This will be pretty easy, especially considering that every winter season since Season Fourteen has visited a Germanic country in Central Europe. If we say leg 7 is in Germany, that adds 9 points to our score! This is okay, as there are several unvisited countries in Europe. Let's analyze Europe as we just did with Asia:

European countries with a score of 0:
• Latvia
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Luxembourg
• Bulgaria
• Serbia
• Albania
• Bosnia & Herzegovina
• Montenegro
• Macedonia

European countries with a score of 1:
• Belgium
• Croatia
• Czech Republic
• Estonia
• Finland
• Hungary
• Iceland
• Ireland
• Lithuania
• Liechtenstein
• Malta
• Monaco
• Romania
• Ukraine

European countries with a score of 2:
• Denmark
• Greece
• Portugal
• turkey

European countries with a score of 3:
• Poland

I'd say that, especially with a leg or two in countries with a high score like Germany, France, or Italy, 3 or 4 legs could be located in countries with scores of one or zero!

As for the finale. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the there have only been three times the finale had teams fly from Europe to the West Coast (Seasons Thirteen, Fifteen, and Twenty Four). I'd say a finale in Seattle or California is inviting, especially since these three seasons ended in Portland (13) and Las Vegas (15 & 24).

Thus concludes my analysis. Enjoy :)
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Offline Marionete

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Really nice and thorough analysis! But I wouldn't buy into the scores that much.

I really see Australia being visited, that is really a no brainer as far as speculation goes. But I definitely think they'll visit Africa, too - just for the scenic, culture-shock legs that viewers usually appreciate. Same goes for snowy legs in Switzerland/Germany/Austria (only scenic though :lol:).

I expect the middle-east to be visited, too. Bar season 28 it has really been a while! A revisit to Oman/Azerbaijan is plausible, and I wouldn't be surprised at a Qatar visit either - it'd be a first time country similar to UAE, which production seems to like.


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Like your analysis, Brannock and Marionete. For me, my chances for season 30 visits:

Oceania - agree as above, will see both Australia and New Zealand as the first 3 legs, with Australia as two separate legs, in which Australia is long overdue.
Asia - much of East Asia will be skipped as have it done visiting in the last four seasons. Some parts of Southeast Asia is certainly to be visited. Parts of the Philippines have never visited by original TAR, but they'd recently done Manila in TAR 25 and Palawan in the earlier seasons. Legazpi is certainly a good place for foreigners with beautiful culture. Cambodia is overdue to wait, especially Siem Reap or Phnom Penh, which Siem Reap is well traveled to foreigners.
Africa - certainly saying yes after having had Safari legs in TAR 26 and TAR 27, its time to visit the Southern coast of Africa. South Africa is way long overdue for a long time.
Europe - definitely rule out overused countries such as Austria/France/Germany/Italy/Netherlands/Switzerland/UK. Underused and minimal countries such as Belgium, Croatia and Spain will be likely visited. The Croatian capital city of Zagreb has never visited in any TAR before which has a vast and unique cultural city.
South America - for four consecutive seasons, it will be skipped forever and no SA for this season.
North America - no Mexico/Panama, but we had a Caribbean penultimate leg once in TAR 7 and it would likely to be hosted, especially Jamaica.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 10:50:33 AM by claude_24hrs »
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Offline georgiapeach

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South America - for four consecutive seasons, it will be skipped forever and no SA for this season.



???
Season 28 went to Colombia. In South America.

Season 27 went to Brazil and Argentina. In South America.
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Offline Marionete

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And season 26 went to Peru, season 29 went to Brazil. :)
I also think South America will be skipped for TAR30.

Offline georgiapeach

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I though Claude was saying we had not been in 4 seasons... Give the girl some coffee!
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Online BritishTARFan

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Locations wise;

Due to it being their summer, Oceania will most likely be visited. Australia will most likely be visited, most likely Melbourne, with a rural leg in maybe Tasmania or Port Campbell. New Zealand could have a leg I'd hope Queenstown but maybe the North Island.

Asia I think we'll be visited but maybe only 2-3 legs. I think East & South Asia will be skipped so maybe just SE Asia: Possibilities include Philippines, Burma, Laos, Malaysia & Singapore. But India could be seen.

Africa could be seen again, rule out Kenya since we just saw Tanzania, we could see South Africa, Mozambique, Malawi, Ethiopia & Lesotho. I think South Africa has a very high Chance.

Although unlikely The Middle East could see a visit, I'd say Doha, Qatar and Jordan are most likely, depending if they want a modern city or more Arab culture. I'd want a Turkish Visit as its my favourite country but with the situation now it's unlikely.

For Europe I have no clue. I feel they'll just visit regulars anyway  :groan:. Spain could be visited, UK could be seen but I'd rather Ireland. Belgium would be good as well as Luxembourg. I wouldn't mind a leg in Dresden as its such a beautiful place. For Eastern Europe possibilities include Russia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary & Croatia.

The Americas I think will most likely be skipped, we could see Canada, or somewhere in the Caribbean.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2016, 04:11:45 AM by BritishTARFan »


Offline ovalorange

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Uh, everyone's been saying for the past couple of seasons that we'll skip North/South America because it's been visited recently and every time we end up starting there :lol:

I wouldn't pay too much attention to where they've been recently, production clearly don't care much about that.

We had the France slaughtering in 26-28;
UK overload in 22/24/25;
Netherlands in 26/27;
Indonesia from 19-23 (minus 20) +28;
And just recently Brazil for 27/29

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw something really recently visited again in 30.

Also those 30 filming dates will be Summer for Oceania :)
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Online BritishTARFan

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Uh, everyone's been saying for the past couple of seasons that we'll skip North/South America because it's been visited recently and every time we end up starting there :lol:

I wouldn't pay too much attention to where they've been recently, production clearly don't care much about that.

We had the France slaughtering in 26-28;
UK overload in 22/24/25;
Netherlands in 26/27;
Indonesia from 19-23 (minus 20) +28;
And just recently Brazil for 27/29

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw something really recently visited again in 30.

Also those 30 filming dates will be Summer for Oceania :)

Yeah I knew that didn't phrase it right ???

But often these repeats are very different. I mean apart from them being in France The Cτte d'Azur, Paris & Chamonix are all very different. Indonesia was visited so much I think to make up for not previously visiting it. Amsterdam & Rotterdam are very different places. Rio is your be beachy Brazil leg with copacabana beach whereas Sγo Paulo is busy city Brazil. And for the UK I have no response  :funny:

Offline ovalorange

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Well you would hope they're somewhat different, otherwise it's boring to see the same places over again! Also that wasn't just a direct reply to you, but to everyone posting in the pre-race spec over the past few seasons.

But I guess I'm just saying I wouldn't be ruling anything out 100% just because we went there last season or the time before.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2016, 11:54:38 PM by ovalorange »
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Offline TARUSAFan

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New countries are absolutely welcome. There's a long long list of them with Israel, Fiji, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Luxembourg, The Bahamas, Maldives, Qatar, Myanmar to name a few. Production surprised us with a Greece visit after 20 seasons in Season 29, so I'm hopeful that underused countries that haven't been visited in a long will hopefully be visited in Season 30.

If production does create legs in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Mauritius, Spain, Finland, Ireland, Belgium and Canada + a stellar cast with no twists I'll be happy.

:conf:
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 05:16:23 AM by TARUSAFan »

Offline BourkieBoy

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Visit Melbourne, Australia. That's all I want. Will the contestants be from Seasons 25-30?

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They're all going to be from TAR 30 :)
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Offline cbacbacba1

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I speculate (and hope that) they will visit the following countries in a westard route
Total : 9 Countries, 4 Continents (2 New countries)

Leg 1 : Melbourne, Australia
Leg 2 : Rural place in Australia (Cairns / Darwin)

Australia is way overdue to be visited (12 seasons gap since TAR 18). Usually the first leg will be in a place where air travel is more convenient from the US.
Therefore, I think they will choose a big city to host Leg 1, before going to a rural place to show the adventurous Australia.
In this case, Melbourne is probably the first choice.

Leg 3 : Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

The new country for this season. A good showcase of Huli culture, alike the New Zealand native culture in TAR 13

Leg 4 : Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Leg 5 : Vientiane, Laos

Cambodia is way overdue again (season 15), plus the canceled visit to Laos from season 19, forming the tropic Asia legs for this season

Leg 6 : Mumbai, India
Leg 7 : Rural India

India is always great place to host chaotic legs, especially in the big city of Mumbai, which itself is not visited for a long long period of time (last was season 12)
Rural India is only visited in TAR 4 where Tian & Jaree broke their record. This leg could also be the Emmy - winning episode which provides "inspirational message" for the audience

Leg 8 : Helsinki, Finland

Icy scenery to replace the commonly-used Switzerland
 
Leg 9 : Budapest, Hungary

City with beautiful night view, can host a good night leg, like Berlin in season 22

Leg 10 : Barcelona, Spain
Leg 11 : Madrid, Spain

Return to some countries that are commonly visited to end the race
Train travel is to be arranged when traveling from Barcelona to Spain, in order to shorten the gap between teams (like Shanghai > Xian in season 6)
Leg 11 is usually hosted in place where air travel is convenient enough to get racers back to US easily
Madrid definitely suits this case

Offline walkingpneumonia

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I think TPTB should try a 90% USA route. It seems to work for TAR Canada (America Light).
Other than the start or end legs (and the awful Family Edition), we don't get to see much of the USA . Its time to change that, because there are so many amazing places in the country to showcase.
And there are business and sponsorship opportunities that could be taken advantage of to cut costs.
  • Domestic self driving legs open up the opportunity for auto manufacturers to sponsor multiple leg production. Look at how Chevrolet has offset the production costs of many TAR Canada legs.
  • Regional/state tourism bureaus could cough up sponsorship money. Again, when you look at the credits on TAR Canada you can see that most legs  received some sort of promotional consideration from city or provincial authorities.
Since we've mostly lost "airport drama" in the last few seasons due to budget constraints (pre-bought tickets) a lack of international air travel wouldn't really be missed. Domestic air travel on the other hand opens up many opportunities for teams to make spectacular mistakes. Imagine a race starting in LA where teams are told to "travel" to Las Vegas. Do you drive your Chevy Camaro to LAX or Burbank? Or do you drive directly to LAS? I think that would put the "Race" back in The Amazing Race.
As far as casting... for personal reasons I think its should be past racers teamed with superfans...
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Offline BourkieBoy

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I speculate (and hope that) they will visit the following countries in a westard route
Total : 9 Countries, 4 Continents (2 New countries)

Leg 1 : Melbourne, Australia
Leg 2 : Rural place in Australia (Cairns / Darwin)

Australia is way overdue to be visited (12 seasons gap since TAR 18). Usually the first leg will be in a place where air travel is more convenient from the US.
Therefore, I think they will choose a big city to host Leg 1, before going to a rural place to show the adventurous Australia.
In this case, Melbourne is probably the first choice.

Leg 3 : Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

The new country for this season. A good showcase of Huli culture, alike the New Zealand native culture in TAR 13

Leg 4 : Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Leg 5 : Vientiane, Laos

Cambodia is way overdue again (season 15), plus the canceled visit to Laos from season 19, forming the tropic Asia legs for this season

Leg 6 : Mumbai, India
Leg 7 : Rural India

India is always great place to host chaotic legs, especially in the big city of Mumbai, which itself is not visited for a long long period of time (last was season 12)
Rural India is only visited in TAR 4 where Tian & Jaree broke their record. This leg could also be the Emmy - winning episode which provides "inspirational message" for the audience

Leg 8 : Helsinki, Finland

Icy scenery to replace the commonly-used Switzerland
 
Leg 9 : Budapest, Hungary

City with beautiful night view, can host a good night leg, like Berlin in season 22

Leg 10 : Barcelona, Spain
Leg 11 : Madrid, Spain

Return to some countries that are commonly visited to end the race
Train travel is to be arranged when traveling from Barcelona to Spain, in order to shorten the gap between teams (like Shanghai > Xian in season 6)
Leg 11 is usually hosted in place where air travel is convenient enough to get racers back to US easily
Madrid definitely suits this case

I agree with this route, but I would make some minor changes:
Leg 2: NEEDS TO BE IN TASMANIA! This island nation is just so beautiful!
Legs 6 and 7: Need to take place in Sri Lanka. India is overused
 :funny:


 

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