Author Topic: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.  (Read 8452 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Declive

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« on: December 02, 2014, 10:36:17 AM »
So , the F3 of TAR25 seems to have a 33%-33%-33% chances of winning for each team , it's very evenly matched.

Can you remember what other finales were like this?

In my opinion :

TAR3 - Anyone could win that leg , they would all deserve it.
TAR17 - Same thing , those three teams were strong.
TAR18 - Strongest F3 ever , in my opinion.
TAR19 - All teams were close.
100% commitment makes everything easy
99% commitment makes everything hard

MrDeerShank

  • Guest
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2014, 11:04:26 AM »
Every finale for TAR...


Online Leafsfan.

  • TAR Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4334
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2014, 11:11:15 AM »

Offline ZBC Company

  • aka spoler
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5095

Offline Jobby

  • TAR & RFF Fanatic
  • TAR Detectives
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 13567
  • HEHEHEHEHEHE
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2014, 11:36:12 AM »
Nope, there was without an ounce of belief in me that teams like Adam and Rebecca, Nicholas and Donald, Andrew and Dan, Brent and Caite etc. could ever win the race even if they were in the Final 3. I also didn't think Mona and Beth or Nicole and Travis stood a chance.

I think what Declive meant was that the F4 of TAR 25 seemed to be evenly matched odds to win (which I do not agree with). He was simply asking for an opinion where you think which season there was a high possibility that any of the final three could take home the win. Such as Season 3 and 17 etc. where all the F3 teams were strong and won legs before. He was simply excited and wanted a discussion. Be nice. :)


Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2014, 11:40:18 AM »
I would definitely disagree with Nick & Donald...they were with the pack until they forgot the gear at the fish shop.

Offline Jobby

  • TAR & RFF Fanatic
  • TAR Detectives
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 13567
  • HEHEHEHEHEHE
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2014, 11:55:22 AM »
I would definitely disagree with Nick & Donald...they were with the pack until they forgot the gear at the fish shop.

I was referring to overall performance. I really didn't think Nick and Don stood any chance at all and possess the set of skills to complete the final leg in first place without any blunders.

I think TAR 15 was the only instance of a finale I could remember teams changed positions like mad from tasks to tasks and that was definitely the one finale where I felt the teams were really strongly matched.. but in the end it still came down to consistency and overall performance of Meghan and Cheyne who had already won six legs with their capabilities.. and gave them the level headedness to perform in times of stress even though they started the counting poker chips task in last place.

Within the F4 of TAR 25 this time, I honestly am not convince that the Wrestlers or Amaya have what it takes to win. But if Wrestlers or Amaya managed to prove themselves this coming two legs before the finale... then it's a whole different story. (even though my heart is with amaya hopefully to do a josh and brent and win <333)

Offline Declive

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2014, 12:03:55 PM »
Definitly NOT every season for TAR , Leafs , Mrds and ZBC.

Dandrew , Brian & Ericka , Brent & Caite , Brendon & Rachel (20) in my opinion had ZERO chances to get the million dollars in their seasons , and this was clear to all of us.
100% commitment makes everything easy
99% commitment makes everything hard

Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2014, 12:07:51 PM »
Is this based on their finale performance or overall?

Offline TARloveit

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 575
  • The true winners of TAR26. Horribly robbed :(
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2014, 12:24:38 PM »
Definitly NOT every season for TAR , Leafs , Mrds and ZBC.

Dandrew , Brian & Ericka , Brent & Caite , Brendon & Rachel (20) in my opinion had ZERO chances to get the million dollars in their seasons , and this was clear to all of us.

I would have to disagree with Brendon & Rachel (S20) there. Although they were the underdogs compared to Art & JJ and Rachel & Dave, they were still a strong(ish) team. In fact, I think they would've won the season if they didn't have the error of finding the helicopters. Just my opinion though.


Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2014, 12:28:34 PM »
Definitly NOT every season for TAR , Leafs , Mrds and ZBC.

Dandrew , Brian & Ericka , Brent & Caite , Brendon & Rachel (20) in my opinion had ZERO chances to get the million dollars in their seasons , and this was clear to all of us.

I would have to disagree with Brendon & Rachel (S20) there. Although they were the underdogs compared to Art & JJ and Rachel & Dave, they were still a strong(ish) team. In fact, I think they would've won the season if they didn't have the error of finding the helicopters. Just my opinion though.

Agreed they were a strong team. So were Brian & Erika imo. I don't see how you can say someone has a zero percent chance?

Offline Jobby

  • TAR & RFF Fanatic
  • TAR Detectives
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 13567
  • HEHEHEHEHEHE
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2014, 12:48:26 PM »
I think it's basically based on your own opinion. :)

Offline Declive

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2014, 03:27:16 PM »
Brendon & Rachel (except for maybe leg1) haven't even been close to win a Leg in TAR20. Plus , they didn't gave us that GUT feeling (which other underdog teams like Josh & Brent gave us)
100% commitment makes everything easy
99% commitment makes everything hard

Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2014, 03:45:33 PM »
Brendon & Rachel   PhD Student & Event Hostess   2nd   4th   2nd   6th   5th   4th   4th   4th⊂⋑    2nd   2nd   3rd   3rd

Lots of close calls there. But it is your opinion

Offline Bookworm

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1763
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2014, 03:58:56 PM »
The final four of TAR21 were all strong
"Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better; it's not" - The Lorax

Offline Declive

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2014, 04:27:09 PM »
Brendon & Rachel   PhD Student & Event Hostess   2nd   4th   2nd   6th   5th   4th   4th   4th⊂⋑    2nd   2nd   3rd   3rd

Lots of close calls there. But it is your opinion

First leg i agree : Close call.
Paraguay leg : They were in the second flight and wouldn't win it anyway. Art & JJ had a big lead over them.
Indian legs : Dave & Rachel had a big lead on them too on both legs. Went on to win both of them confortably
100% commitment makes everything easy
99% commitment makes everything hard

Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2014, 04:52:57 PM »
ok

Offline Declive

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2014, 05:11:34 PM »
ok

SteKay , no hard feelings , please. You have your opinion and i have mine , this is a forum (a place that we can discuss those things on) , so i hope you realize that i have one opinion and you have another one , doesn't mean one of us is right or wrong here :funny:.   :hrt:
100% commitment makes everything easy
99% commitment makes everything hard

Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2014, 05:14:03 PM »
I know :lol:  :hrt: (plus we all probably have an element of bias to which teams we like/don't like :lol:)

Offline supah

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 960
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2014, 05:50:13 PM »
Definitely TAR17 & TAR18


Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2014, 06:06:11 PM »
TAR23 had very strong teams tbh. It was anyone's game

Offline Bookworm

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1763
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2014, 06:08:15 PM »
TAR23 had very strong teams tbh. It was anyone's game
until Jamy got lucky </3
"Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better; it's not" - The Lorax

Offline stekay

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2519
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2014, 06:14:37 PM »
TAR23 had very strong teams tbh. It was anyone's game
until Jamy got lucky </3

My least favourite of the 3 also :lol:

Offline Jobby

  • TAR & RFF Fanatic
  • TAR Detectives
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 13567
  • HEHEHEHEHEHE
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2014, 10:21:01 PM »
JAMY <33333333333 :funny:

MrDeerShank

  • Guest
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2014, 10:56:37 PM »
Definitly NOT every season for TAR , Leafs , Mrds and ZBC.

Dandrew , Brian & Ericka , Brent & Caite , Brendon & Rachel (20) in my opinion had ZERO chances to get the million dollars in their seasons , and this was clear to all of us.

Wrong! You can't say that one team had zero chance of winning unless they were not running the Final Leg to begin with - one team does not have a heightened chance purely due to their performance in the last X legs; the Final Leg could be their Achilles Heel, and then they come unstuck at one specific task, and hence a team that didn't do so well in the first 11 legs could propel ahead and win.

Offline LFelix

  • RFF Not So Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 35
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2014, 11:02:11 PM »
w
Definitly NOT every season for TAR , Leafs , Mrds and ZBC.

Dandrew , Brian & Ericka , Brent & Caite , Brendon & Rachel (20) in my opinion had ZERO chances to get the million dollars in their seasons , and this was clear to all of us.

Wrong! You can't say that one team had zero chance of winning unless they were not running the Final Leg to begin with - one team does not have a heightened chance purely due to their performance in the last X legs; the Final Leg could be their Achilles Heel, and then they come unstuck at one specific task, and hence a team that didn't do so well in the first 11 legs could propel ahead and win.
Well,in TAR 1 and 4,one team fell 1 day behind the other 2 and didn't have a slight chance of winning.
So,there's wasn't a 33%-33%-33% chance in EVERY TAR Finale.

Offline Declive

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2014, 11:51:15 PM »
Definitly NOT every season for TAR , Leafs , Mrds and ZBC.

Dandrew , Brian & Ericka , Brent & Caite , Brendon & Rachel (20) in my opinion had ZERO chances to get the million dollars in their seasons , and this was clear to all of us.

Wrong! You can't say that one team had zero chance of winning unless they were not running the Final Leg to begin with - one team does not have a heightened chance purely due to their performance in the last X legs; the Final Leg could be their Achilles Heel, and then they come unstuck at one specific task, and hence a team that didn't do so well in the first 11 legs could propel ahead and win.

What i'm saying : nobody believed on them. Everyone guessed them to be 3rd. And they were. The whole season they never did anything that wasn't surviving. And reached the final leg without that fire on their eyes.
100% commitment makes everything easy
99% commitment makes everything hard

Offline Gingerbeasts

  • RFF Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 55
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #27 on: December 04, 2014, 09:17:56 AM »
In TAR14, pretty much the final 3 has a chance of winning.

Offline Dånooky

  • RFF's Wasabi Bomber
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6849
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #28 on: December 15, 2014, 11:14:41 PM »
I think 9 was pretty even, as well as 17
The story so far:
In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move

Offline naejae91

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 631
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #29 on: December 16, 2014, 05:42:59 AM »
I think 9 was pretty even, as well as 17

I agree on 17 but don't agree on 9. BJ & Jyler and Eric & Jeremy have higher chance to win than Ray & Yolanda.
TAR25/TAR29: Modern classic season.

Offline Keepcopz

  • RFF Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
Re: Final Leg : Evenly-Matched Odds to Win.
« Reply #30 on: July 11, 2015, 04:54:05 AM »
Gotta add 26 to the list. Only Mike & Rochelle (who got booted in 4th anyway) that I think might had lesser chance to win. The F3 is so strong as all of them win at least 2 legs in the season and it's anyone game. (The placement shift all the time until the very end)

Though if only Hayley didn't miss the flag...  :'(