Author Topic: TAR 21 Predictions  (Read 56628 times)

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Offline Jobby

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #150 on: June 03, 2012, 02:10:49 AM »
I think they try to hit at least 4 continents EVERY season. Last season had 5 (Australia skipped), 19 had 4 (SA skipped), 18 had 5 (Africa skipped! Could have been six!), 17 had 4 (SA skipped again). Considering that they only went to two SA countries last season, I don't think they will skip it again this season. But this seems like too many continents to cover since they spent the first 4 legs? in Asia...

Leg 5-6: Africa (NEL/TBC/Keep racing leg) F8/F7 NEL?
Leg 7-9: One new middle east country + 2 European legs (F5/F4 NEL?)
Leg 10-11: South America (NEL/TBC/Keep racing leg) F4 elimination
Leg 12: USA

That will still cover 5 continents... and give every continent a good coverage? Considering they don't do 2 legs in the same country like in TAR 18. 2 legs in China, 2 legs in India, 2 legs in Australia... -_-

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #151 on: June 03, 2012, 04:48:05 AM »
I personally don't think they will visit South America this season. South America has, so far I know, never been visited two seasons in a row. If they do Africa, I think it will be Morocco, and just for one or two legs. So I think this season has a high possibility of getting three continents, or they have to visit Australia from Singapore on.


Offline JordanJones123

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #152 on: June 03, 2012, 08:48:09 AM »
Happy that there not going to spend 5 legs in Asia again, if you are right Joab... I mean, 5 in Asia? such a bore  :stare
 
Still have no clue where leg 4 will be yet, but I hope that in leg 5 they go to Africa. There are so many awesome places in Africa. I predict that if they go to Africa, they will have 3 legs, and visit 2 countries. EITHER

Leg 5. Developing, new country on the east coast (Ivory Coast!)
Leg 6. Same
Leg 7. Egypt
(Vice Versa)
or

Leg 5. South Africa
Leg 6. Developing new country anywhere (I dont mind
Leg 7. Same

This is because I believe (a) for such a prominent african nation, it is insulting that South Africa hasn't been visited since season 7 and has only had 2 pit stops. It was also showcased really well in TARAus, and shows that there are new south african provinces waiting for a visit.

Egypt is the same - Hasn't been visited in a while. A bit of civil uprest there tho so I doubt we will see it, unfortunately.

After Africa, they will head to europe for a either the remaining legs, or have a few there and then pop over to central america/canada for the penultimate leg. I have a feeling they want to rest south america, and use it for the last few legs of TAR 22, similar to the way they used it in the awesome TAR 18, except prolonged
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Offline Jimmer

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #153 on: June 03, 2012, 09:05:26 AM »
I think that WRP does not look at Asia as a whole continent, but as different regions. Asia is too massive to be considered as "1 place" compared to South America. WRP tries to visit different regions/cultures.

Offline JordanJones123

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #154 on: June 03, 2012, 10:34:33 AM »
I think that WRP does not look at Asia as a whole continent, but as different regions. Asia is too massive to be considered as "1 place" compared to South America. WRP tries to visit different regions/cultures.

I've never thought about it that way Jimmer, but its a good theory - I guess this explains for the number of times asia has been visited. What would you divide asia into?
Jet and Cord are still the best!!! Bring them back!

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Offline krabbe

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #155 on: June 03, 2012, 11:02:15 AM »
I don't think they'll visit Egypt, with the Mubarak sentencing the people are MAD. Demonstrations in big cities will disrupt the race course. As for Middle East, if they do visit it again this season, it's most likely the same old country (Qatar, Kuwait, Oman) since they're proven to be more stable than others.

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #156 on: June 03, 2012, 11:03:14 AM »
Qatar hasn't been visited

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #157 on: June 03, 2012, 12:37:20 PM »
I think that WRP does not look at Asia as a whole continent, but as different regions. Asia is too massive to be considered as "1 place" compared to South America. WRP tries to visit different regions/cultures.

I've never thought about it that way Jimmer, but its a good theory - I guess this explains for the number of times asia has been visited. What would you divide asia into?
JordanJones123,

It is a good theory but it does not explain the number of times Asia has been visited. Here are the land areas of the continents as % of the world total of 57.3 million square miles:

Asia 30.0%
Africa 20.3%
North America 16.3%
South America 12.0%
Antarctica 8.9%
Europe 6.7%
Australia/Oceania 5.2%

To interpret what this means you have to have a qualitative sense of where Amazing Races have been (a quantitative approach is possible for anyone with a lot of time to burn). I think Asia is represented at about 30% of all Amazing Race legs. I think Africa is underrepresented at about 20.3%. North America has a major underrepresentation at 16.3%. South America is represented at about 12%. Europe is the one continent that has huge overrepresentation at 6.7%. Australia/Oceania is likely overrepresented at 5.2%. Antarctica has never been visited, so it is underrepresented. 

Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #158 on: June 03, 2012, 06:09:17 PM »
Wouldn't it be more conducive to analyze the continents by population or even by economy, as that motivates infrastructure, transport, lodging, possible financial incentive, etc.? In that respect the division of legs is expected (more legs in Europe than in Africa, more legs in Asia than in South America and so on).

Also, I think we'll have a visit to Russia this year, especially if we're still in Asia in leg 4. It could end up being the inverse of TAR 14, with Asia - Asian Russia - Europe.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #159 on: June 03, 2012, 09:10:49 PM »
Peach, It's obvious that there are many wishlists being submitted. Where else do posters have to put them? Perhaps you opening a new thread just for them would be a good way to handle them.

Oh WHAT a good idea. :lol:

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http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,15213.0.html
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Offline Charlie90

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #160 on: June 03, 2012, 09:56:27 PM »
Well technically, they were still predicting.... :)

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #161 on: June 04, 2012, 09:03:19 AM »
Wouldn't it be more conducive to analyze the continents by population or even by economy, as that motivates infrastructure, transport, lodging, possible financial incentive, etc.? In that respect the division of legs is expected (more legs in Europe than in Africa, more legs in Asia than in South America and so on).

Also, I think we'll have a visit to Russia this year, especially if we're still in Asia in leg 4. It could end up being the inverse of TAR 14, with Asia - Asian Russia - Europe.
Zach,
It sure sound good, but then what would the result be?
For example if you apportion Amazing Race legs by population then here are the abbreviated results:

China 19.2%
India  17.25%
US     4.47%
Indonesia 3.39%
Brazil 2.74%
Pakistan 2.56%
Nigeria 2.32%
Russia 2.04%
Bangladesh 2.03%
Japan 1.82%
Mexico 1.6%
Philippines 1.32%
Vietnam 1.25%
Ethiopia 1.2%
Egypt 1.17%
Germany 1.17%
Iran 1.09%
Turkey 1.06%
countries listed as #21 to #240 the remainder, each with <1.0%

So, would you want an Amazing Race that visited China one out of every 5 legs (about double the historical amount) and India one out of every 6 legs (also about double the historical amount)? I wouldn't.


I think a good argument can be made (by me in a previous post) that land area is a reasonable proxy for numbers of Amazing Race legs per country. It's not perfect, but it's close enough. None of the other measures you have suggested are very easy to measure and translate into Amazing Race leg count.
 

Offline redskevin88

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #162 on: June 04, 2012, 11:22:11 PM »
My prediction is that they when to some remote part of Russia for Leg 4 where there is no Internet (or Internet connection is poor) so we have no spoilers. And for Leg 5, maybe they when to some part of Scandinavia where there are few people and so little spoilers. 

We should see the teams soon when Leg 6 and Leg 7 begin filming.

Offline Mug Costanza

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #163 on: June 04, 2012, 11:32:41 PM »
My prediction is Maldives for Leg 4. It fits geographically where the race would be heading, and it's somewhere that there wouldn't be a lot of people posting/tweeting/FB'ing spoilers, I would imagine.
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Offline tarflyonthewall

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #164 on: June 05, 2012, 03:47:14 AM »
Yeah, we're due for our every-fourth-season visit to Russia. :P

Offline dpe

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #165 on: June 05, 2012, 09:14:48 AM »
My prediction is Maldives for Leg 4. It fits geographically where the race would be heading, and it's somewhere that there wouldn't be a lot of people posting/tweeting/FB'ing spoilers, I would imagine.


Maldives is a huge tourist location. probably lots of people w/phones for tweeting.

Offline Jobby

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #166 on: June 06, 2012, 02:34:15 PM »
Peach, It's obvious that there are many wishlists being submitted. Where else do posters have to put them? Perhaps you opening a new thread just for them would be a good way to handle them.

Oh WHAT a good idea. :lol:

3+ years and counting:

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,15213.0.html

 :lol: :lol:

 :lol: :lol: :lol:

Anyway, I remembered learning in Geog that Istanbul is the only city in the world lying on two continent, Asia and Europe.

So... can we assume they skipped the whole Africa.. or can they actually go back down again after (Istanbul.. leg 4?) and rumoured (leg 5 AND/OR 6?). I don't think so right.. they're more likely to do 2 to 3 legs in Europe, 2 legs in South America.. then back to USA?

addie

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #167 on: June 06, 2012, 02:36:25 PM »
I predict we will have a 3 continent race, and maby a leg in the Carribean or Central America

Offline weihen

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #168 on: June 06, 2012, 10:16:21 PM »
I think they won't visit Africa this season...
« Last Edit: June 07, 2012, 05:28:55 AM by weihen »

Offline dpe

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #169 on: June 08, 2012, 01:54:38 PM »
Now that they are in Moscow, I think it's a good possibility they go to Scandinavia. Then into Europe. With 5 legs left, 4 not counting the last in the U.S., another in Russia or former Soviet Union country, 1 or 2 in Scandinavia, then Europe.


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #170 on: June 08, 2012, 02:52:57 PM »
I think they won't visit Africa this season...


I think they will. :tup:
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Offline topaz

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #171 on: June 08, 2012, 08:31:58 PM »
I think they won't visit Africa this season...


I think they will. :tup:
me too, and I'm thinking that Africa will be the last continent to visit for TAR 21 after Europe and the best and even the safest country to get there is hopefully they'll visit to Cape Verde Island as the newest country to feature it.  Then their final destination is either to Washington, Boston or New Orleans. :)

Offline supah

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #172 on: June 08, 2012, 09:00:17 PM »
i PREDICT TAR21 will finish off like this

Leg 1 (United States - China)
Leg 2 (China - Indonesia)
Leg 3 (Indonesia)
Leg 4 (Indonesia - Bangladesh)
Leg 5 (Bangladesh)
Leg 6 (Bangladesh - Turkey)
Leg 7 (Turkey - Russia)
Leg 8 (Russia - Latvia)
Leg 9 (Latvia - Spain)
Leg 10 (Spain)
Leg 11 (Spain - Morocco)
Leg 12 (Morocco - United States)

Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #173 on: June 08, 2012, 10:03:44 PM »
I think they won't visit Africa this season...


I think they will. :tup:

Just for scope, there are direct flights to the US from Cairo, Casablanca, Accra, Dakar, Johannesburg, and I think Cape Town and Addis Ababa. Since these flights are mainly toward New York or Washington, they could go just about anywhere with only a single connection.

Or if they want to go to DC while I'm visiting school that would be cool too.

Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 21 Predictions
« Reply #174 on: June 11, 2012, 04:47:28 PM »
I hope Iceland is visited again, and if so it would be good place for the 11th leg (penultimate leg)
Then the Final Leg would have teams fly nonstop direct on Icelandair to these cities in the US: (in parenthesis was the last time city was visited on final leg)
-Boston
-Denver (TAR9)
-Minneapolis
-New York City/JFK (TAR10)
-Orlando/Sanford
-Seattle (TAR3)
-Washington/Dulles
The reason I predict Iceland would be the penultimate leg is due to the fact it was last visited on TAR6, most of that visit was mainly in the countryside where they camped out on the glacier.  Reykjavik the capital city was never visited thats my reason.