Author Topic: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**  (Read 406249 times)

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Offline NumfarPTB

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #575 on: June 11, 2012, 08:52:40 PM »
I have a probable theory that Latvia may have been visited.  If the remaining teams were in the Amsterdam area of the late afternoon of June 11th, I researched that there is one flight that could have been taken if Latvia was after Moscow and before Amsterdam. 
-airBaltic flight#617 (for June 11 2012)
-leaves RIX at 11:35am
-arrives AMS at 1:00pm

Also last season when they visited Azerbaijan, I believe there were no tweets/info until the season began to air.

Seems Likely, Leg 7 in Moscow was filmed on June 8th. Assuming there was some rest period midway through June 9th, with teams flying out of Moscow in the afternoon of that date. Leg 8 would have to happen through June 9th-10th. With rest period between Legs 8 and 9 at the night of June 10th to 11th.

However, you should check for earlier flights by that route so Phil can arrive earlier than teams.

Speculation about end city, I remember reading about Detroit, but what about Chicago?
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 09:05:34 PM by NumfarPTB »

Offline topaz

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #576 on: June 11, 2012, 09:03:28 PM »
So believed route so far:

Leg 1: USA - China
Leg 2: China-Indonesia
Leg 3: Indonesia
Leg 4: Indonesia - Bangladesh
Leg 5: Bangladesh
Leg 6: Bangladesh - Turkey
Leg 7: Turkey-Russia
Leg 8: Russia
Leg 9: Russia - Netherlands


We likely will see 1-2 more nations. Africa/or Brazil makes sense
nah, I do believe this should be their legs for TAR 21:

leg 1: USA-China
leg 2: China-Indonesia
leg 3: Indonesia
leg 4: Singapore
leg 5: Bangladesh
leg 6: Bangladesh-Istanbul, Turkey
leg 7: (hopefully) Troia (troy), Turkey
leg 8: Turkey-Moscow, Russia
leg 9: Russia/Estonia/Belarus/Slovak Republic
leg 10: Netherlands

...and I do believe only 2 legs to go before heading back to USA.  And my prediction for leg 11?  Somewhere in Belgium/France/England/Spain/Portugal/Ireland/Canada/Bermuda/Iceland/The Carribean/Cape Verde Islands.


Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #577 on: June 11, 2012, 09:17:48 PM »
Here is where the girls are running:

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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #578 on: June 11, 2012, 09:25:37 PM »
As far as we know, Russia was STILL active on June 10, so suspect they came in directly after 2 Russian legs.
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #579 on: June 11, 2012, 09:39:55 PM »
Xarles,

It's a good speculation you have on the Caribbean but I think it's too easy to spot the Amazing Race filming on small islands that are typical in the Caribbean. I think this is because at this part of AR21 WRP is trying to avoid the race being spotted wherever possible. That means that they should have a strong preference for locations that are reachable via a nonstop flight. I have taken the liberty of developing a 8 x 2 matrix based on your 8 cities and either Amsterdam or Madrid as the origin. There are no nonstop flights on Saturday June 16 (a date I picked because it is possible for the penultimate leg)  except for the following:

AMS PBM (Paramaribo) KL713 1115 1515
AMS CUR (Curacao)     KL735 0950 1325
MAD PUJ (Puerto Plata) Air Europe 33 1655 1950

It's possible there are more flights on the coming 4 days, but I will not be doing further study on this possibility.

I think my hypothesis about Central America (see the Predictions thread) is more likely but either one could happen (or west Africa or other parts of Europe).


Offline Charlie90

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #580 on: June 11, 2012, 09:44:28 PM »
Paramaribo would be great.
Just because it's one of those places in America that you don't hear a lot about.

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #581 on: June 11, 2012, 10:14:32 PM »
Looks like we've got another safe team :)

@perthct #amazingrace #amst



Dom, do you have the time that this was posted?
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Offline Dom

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #582 on: June 12, 2012, 01:36:11 AM »
Dom, do you have the time that this was posted?

I can't see the exact time, but it says 17 hours ago, so around 3-4pm Amsterdam time.

http://instagr.am/p/LvF3M7mjgZ/

Offline supah

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #583 on: June 12, 2012, 05:25:07 AM »
for the last time, THERE IS NO LEG IN SINGAPORE

this is the most likely route

So believed route so far:

Leg 1: USA - China
Leg 2: China-Indonesia
Leg 3: Indonesia
Leg 4: Indonesia - Bangladesh
Leg 5: Bangladesh
Leg 6: Bangladesh - Turkey
Leg 7: Turkey-Russia
Leg 8: Russia
Leg 9: Russia - Netherlands

there was not enough time between Istanbul and Moscow sightings to have another Turkey leg
and filming in Russia seemed to be happening from the 8th-10th of June, which most likely means we have TWO legs there

and if teams were still in Russia on the 10th, then the Netherlands was most likely the leg straight after that

anyway, Leafsfan's route is what seems to be happening, so we could potentially have two more countries left before heading to the States  :tup:

also, I've forgotten who posted it (i think it was apskip), but races usually end on a Saturday or Sunday, and I'm guesstimating the race will end like this

10 June (Sunday) - start Leg 9 (speculated in Russia)
11 June (Monday) - Leg 9 raced in Netherlands
12 June (Tuesday) - teams depart Netherlands
13 June (Wednesday) - Leg 10 raced in ______
14 June (Thursday) - Leg 11 raced in ______
15 June (Friday) - extended Pit Stop, start Leg 12 late in day
16 June (Saturday) - final leg (Leg 12) raced

OR everything could be moved back a day if Leg 10 was raced on 12 June (particularly if it was in the region around the Netherlands)
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 05:40:42 AM by supah3ro »

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #584 on: June 12, 2012, 08:28:37 AM »
LOL is it cold in Netherlands?

And Chateau just wow at how you found that.
It's very cold here for the time of the year. Just about 12 degrees and a lot of rain :(


Offline TARFansurvivor

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #585 on: June 12, 2012, 09:29:41 AM »
As far as we know, Russia was STILL active on June 10, so suspect they came in directly after 2 Russian legs.

Hard to believe a season without any new countries. :'( :'( :'( :'(
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Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #586 on: June 12, 2012, 09:37:45 AM »
TAR Days of the Week Finishes:

TAR13......April 22, 2008............Tuesday                               East to West                         Portland, Oregon
TAR14......Nov  21, 2008............Friday                                  West to East                         Maui, Hawaii
TAR15......Aug   6, 2009.............Thursday                              East to West                        Las Vegas, Nevada
TAR16......Dec  20, 2009............Sunday                                 West to East                        San Francisco, California
TAR17......June 15, 2010............Tuesday                                West to East                        Los Angeles, California
TAR18......Dec  13, 2010............Monday                                 East to West                        Miami,Florida
TAR19......July 10, 2011.............Sunday                                 East to West                        Atlanta, Georgia
TAR20......Dec 19, 2011.............Monday                                 West to East                        Oahu, Hawaii

TAR 21.....June ??, 2012............????????                                East to West                        ???????????????


General Trend of late has been to finsh the race on the start of the week........Sunday, Monday, or Tue. Destination or direction does not appear to have any affect.
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #587 on: June 12, 2012, 11:13:55 AM »
TAR Days of the Week Finishes:

TAR13......April 22, 2008............Tuesday                               East to West                         Portland, Oregon
TAR14......Nov  21, 2008............Friday                                  West to East                         Maui, Hawaii
TAR15......Aug   6, 2009.............Thursday                              East to West                        Las Vegas, Nevada
TAR16......Dec  20, 2009............Sunday                                 West to East                        San Francisco, California
TAR17......June 15, 2010............Tuesday                                West to East                        Los Angeles, California
TAR18......Dec  13, 2010............Monday                                 East to West                        Miami,Florida
TAR19......July 10, 2011.............Sunday                                 East to West                        Atlanta, Georgia
TAR20......Dec 19, 2011.............Monday                                 West to East                        Oahu, Hawaii

TAR 21.....June ??, 2012............????????                                East to West                        ???????????????


General Trend of late has been to finsh the race on the start of the week........Sunday, Monday, or Tue. Destination or direction does not appear to have any affect.

I guess it makes a huge differences how you do any analysis. For example, if you take only AR13 to ART20, you find as Dr. Rox indicates above that Sundays are 25% in that range of races. However, a more comprehensive analysis gives a much different picture of the days of the week for Amazing Race finishes:

AR1 4/8/01 Sunday
AR2 2/3/02 Sunday
AR3 7/7/02 Sunday
AR4 2/14/03 Thursday
AR5 2/27/04 Friday
AR6 7/12/04 Monday
AR7 12/19/04 Sunday
AR8 7/3/05 Sunday
AR9 12/3/05 Monday
AR10 6/24/06 Saturday
AR11 12/15/06 Sunday 
AR12 7/29/07 Sunday

Now when you combine the data for all 20 Amazing Races, you have 9/20 = 45% for Sunday, 1/20 = 5% for Saturday and the remaining 50% during weekdays. Conclude what you wish to from this information.

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #588 on: June 12, 2012, 12:08:54 PM »
I think we have to give more weight to the more recent seasons with the generally 12-leg format. We also need to consider (1) the day of the week a Race began filming, and (2) the total number of days for filming.

This season's filming began on a Saturday (local time). It does seem the filming this season has been particularly efficient, with less rest time than in some other seasons. A Friday finish would not be inconceivable to me. There's going to be disagreement about whether Amsterdam was leg 8, 9 or ten because of the incomplete information. That would also influence which day the Race might end. I suspect still that the travel from the 10th to the 11th leg is going to set up the travel for the final leg --  meaning the teams might have a long travel period to get to wherever the 11th leg is set so Phil does get ahead, and then allow Phil and the eliminated teams to get ahead of the final three teams for the final leg, So I think that the final leg this time will be between Friday and Sunday, it could set a surprise if filming ends on Thursday since it does not seem as if there was a huge amount of zig-zag this time around.
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Offline Heliox

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #589 on: June 12, 2012, 12:58:59 PM »
So although my husband left Amsterdam on Saturday his colleagues had a run in with one of the teams, while they were biking. Unfortunately when they were asked if they knew Amsterdam they just kept riding past the team when they saw the cameras. I am trying to find out description of the team that asked them.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #590 on: June 12, 2012, 01:01:32 PM »
So although my husband left Amsterdam on Saturday his colleagues had a run in with one of the teams, while they were biking. Unfortunately when they were asked if they knew Amsterdam they just kept riding past the team when they saw the cameras. I am trying to find out description of the team that asked them.

Thanks! Teams or colleagues were biking? Or both?

Poor hubby, so close....
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Offline Heliox

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #591 on: June 12, 2012, 01:44:45 PM »
I Know!! we watch TAR religiously and was hoping he would someday run into the teams.

Sorry, I wasn't clear, but the colleagues were biking and the team jumped out in front of them to ask directions. So it sounds like teams were on foot. My husband and his collegues' hotel is very close to where the teams were spotted near Central station. The conversation is going down in French on facebook and probably why no one has picked up on it here.
What I got from the last message was that the team was acting like 'typical tourists' and not watching for the bikers coming in their path. (she is obviously NOT a TAR fan).

Still waiting for a description of the team that they encountered.

Offline Alenaveda

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #592 on: June 12, 2012, 01:54:15 PM »
Daniel Greenberg ‏@danieleric17
Saw them filming Amazing Race yesterday on the streets of Amsterdam. I probably should try out.

nothing rgarding today

Daniel Greenberg ‏@danieleric17
@DomEL5 it was to big muscular guys running around in red shirts and bags with film crews in front and behind by the train station.

Sounds like the Chippendales to me!! We've seen them with red shirts and bags before!


Yes!  In Reta's pic 1 of Shangai Airport on May 29th.

If this is true, plus the pics of the other 3 teams (twins, farmers and Abby & unknown), there's (at least) one team missing to our sight.  No matter if Amsterdam is leg 8 or 9, there should be 5 teams racing.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 02:05:03 PM by Alenaveda »
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Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #593 on: June 12, 2012, 03:15:05 PM »
I think we have to give more weight to the more recent seasons with the generally 12-leg format. We also need to consider (1) the day of the week a Race began filming, and (2) the total number of days for filming.

This season's filming began on a Saturday (local time). It does seem the filming this season has been particularly efficient, with less rest time than in some other seasons. A Friday finish would not be inconceivable to me. There's going to be disagreement about whether Amsterdam was leg 8, 9 or ten because of the incomplete information. That would also influence which day the Race might end. I suspect still that the travel from the 10th to the 11th leg is going to set up the travel for the final leg --  meaning the teams might have a long travel period to get to wherever the 11th leg is set so Phil does get ahead, and then allow Phil and the eliminated teams to get ahead of the final three teams for the final leg, So I think that the final leg this time will be between Friday and Sunday, it could set a surprise if filming ends on Thursday since it does not seem as if there was a huge amount of zig-zag this time around.

Personally, I think you are jumping the gun. I think there are 1 or 2  long pit stops left.....36 hour ones. There was one in Indonesia. There is a lot of unaccounted time in this race so far. Might have been one in either Turkey or Moscow........so that would be something like this.

They were in:
Indonesia for     ~83 hours.........2 legs and 36 hour pit stop
Bangladesh for   ~ 71 hours
Turkey for          ~ 58 hours
Moscow for         ~ 72 or 75 hours, depending on flight connections going in and out             

Leg 1-China
Leg 2-Indonesia
Leg 3-Indonesia
        Long pit stop
Leg 4--Bangladesh
Leg 5--Bangladesh
Leg 6--Turkey
Leg 7--Moscow
     Long pit stop
Leg 8--Moscow
Leg 9--Amsterdam
      Long Pit Stop
Leg 10-Amsterdam II ?
Leg 11-Montreal?
Leg 12--Finale Philadephia?

If they did a Long Pit Stop in Turkey.........then probably another one after Leg 9.......thats the way it was last Race in India. Also a extra day Pit Stop in Tanzania.

I still see a Sunday finish......it is Father's Day and a lot of people will be busy with that and off the roads.......where
ever they end up.....traffic will be less in the finale city.  Places that WRP like to stage tasks will normally be closed.....so they can rent them cheaply.........Normal places that are businesses during the week, similiar to the Computer Graphics place in TAR16......the flight similator in TAR19.......I think even DC would be a lot slower than any other typical Sunday. I think there are a lot of reasons that BVM likes to finish the races on a Sunday if he can.

In the modern TAR age (since the great economic collapse) races are about 21-23 days of filming. Sunday will make 22 days.

I like Montreal for the Leg 11 destination. It has a charm about it and lots of other historical stuff near that TAR likes. It also has connections starting about 6 am to all the major East Coast cities.....if that is what TAR does this time. Boston, All 3 NYC airports, Philly, both airports in DC., Charlotte etc. Montreal would be similiar to Calgary in TAR5.......teams can clear US customs and immigration leaving Montreal and not have to mess with it at the destination. Anyway......just my two centavos.
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #594 on: June 12, 2012, 03:20:21 PM »
Can you run thru how you are getting those numbers please? For example Turkey?  Thanks!

I am doubtful of a second AMS leg though. ...
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Offline Topita

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #595 on: June 12, 2012, 03:25:56 PM »
Can you run thru how you are getting those numbers please? For example Turkey?  Thanks!

I am doubtful of a second AMS leg though. ...
Sent some info about where they were spotted in Ams to Dom El.  :)
Might give rise to some interesting speculation about what address exactly they were looking for.  :lol3:

Has TAR ever returned to the same destination for two legs?

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Offline boston_jen

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #596 on: June 12, 2012, 03:48:22 PM »
I've been thinking about logistics of trying to follow teams if they fly into Boston for the final leg, and I agree Sunday would be a pain in the neck to track teams due to various obligations that day, including a graduation party for one person and a school dance for another.  Plus Father's Day stuff.

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #597 on: June 12, 2012, 03:51:15 PM »
Can you run thru how you are getting those numbers please? For example Turkey?  Thanks!

I am doubtful of a second AMS leg though. ...

I was just taking the arrival time of the speculated flights and departure time of speculated flghts......then figuring how many hours they were there. Certainly not higher mathematics, just arithmetic. Even with waiting till early morning starts for HD filming.....lots of time out there.

For Turkey, I used the direct flight from Dubai for arrival. For departure, I used both flights to Moscow to get a possible range. But those Aeroflot flights are a problem. One arrives, to me, way to early and the other arrives too late. I have been trying to find a connection that would split he difference for arrival in Moscow.....but so far, no joy.

Well that is why I put the question mark after AmsterdamII......lol I am a little nostalgic. I used to fly through Amsterdam to Montreal to Houston a lot.......a long time ago when I lived overseas. Back in those day, KLM was my airline of choice. I never flew TWA or PanAm. They got hijacked and blown up a lot. No one ever messed with the Dutch.
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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #598 on: June 12, 2012, 05:03:33 PM »
I just remembered that the next amazing race is now shooting.
Can someone tell me please where have they been at this moment?
It is hard to find summary in forum.
-
And TAR have never visited Latvia, so if there is going to be some information - I will post it here.

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #599 on: June 12, 2012, 05:21:59 PM »
I am familiar with travel patterns, particularly across bridges and through tunnels, on Father's Day around the NYC metro area. No sane person would want to be in traffic this Sunday if they can avoid it. I have an event to attend in Manhattan and I am taking the train. I believe there will be heavy traffic around all major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 06:31:37 PM by apskip »