Author Topic: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**  (Read 222540 times)

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Offline redwings8831

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #50 on: May 27, 2012, 02:24:48 AM »
No, sorry.

Seems very definite they go thru Taipei.

Damn, this is harder than I thought.  :lol:

Are we sure they are continuing on to somewhere else from Taipei?

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #51 on: May 27, 2012, 02:27:50 AM »
Yes.

Heeee...everything I know about flight tracking, I learned in your games!  :jam:
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Offline Reilly Queens

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #52 on: May 27, 2012, 02:34:27 AM »
No, sorry.

Seems very definite they go thru Taipei.

Those were departures I found From Taipei :lol:

Offline redwings8831

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #53 on: May 27, 2012, 02:36:39 AM »
Since Peach said Taipei.. I checked flightstats and I think we got

A) Hong Kong(departures at 8:55 AM & 9:20AM & 10:00/20AM)
B) Shanghai (departures at 9:05 & 10:10AM
C) Guangzhou(10AM, 1:55PM, 2:30PM)

I don't think it will be Hong Kong as there were direct flights there from LAX tonight. I'm thinking Guangzhou or some smaller Chinese city that would require the Taipei connection.

Offline redwings8831

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #54 on: May 27, 2012, 02:39:32 AM »
Yes.

Heeee...everything I know about flight tracking, I learned in your games!  :jam:

I just find it weird that the two flights are so close to each other and thus could place all teams on the same connection flight (especially to a smaller city). Usually, flights on the first leg are one/two hours apart.


Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #55 on: May 27, 2012, 03:14:58 AM »
Okay...I think I can reveal it now...
1st destination is:Shanghai,China :hearts:

Well actually, Shanghai is the only destination that makes sense from flight stats.....there are not any other cities that fit the flight profiles except either Hong Kong or Macau.....and they might go there......but I would think after they go someplace else in China first......

Eva Air  BR15      1:35 am-6:20 am   LAX>TPE
Eva Air  BR712  10:10 am-12:05pm TPE>PNG

China Airlines  CI7     1:15-6:10   LAX>TPE
China Airlines  CI501 9:05 am-1050am  TPE>PVG
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Offline redwings8831

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #56 on: May 27, 2012, 03:16:31 AM »
Okay...I think I can reveal it now...
1st destination is:Shanghai,China :hearts:

Well actually, Shanghai is the only destination that makes sense from flight stats.....there are not any other cities that fit the flight profiles except either Hong Kong or Macau.....and they might go there......but I would think after they go someplace else in China first......

Eva Air  BR15      1:35 am-6:20 am   LAX>TPE
Eva Air  BR712  10:10 am-12:05pm TPE>PNG

China Airlines  CI7     1:15-6:10   LAX>TPE
China Airlines  CI501 9:05 am-1050am  TPE>PVG

Why separate the teams to Taipei though?

Offline Reilly Queens

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #57 on: May 27, 2012, 03:24:22 AM »
Since Peach said Taipei.. I checked flightstats and I think we got

A) Hong Kong(departures at 8:55 AM & 9:20AM & 10:00/20AM)
B) Shanghai (departures at 9:05 & 10:10AM
C) Guangzhou(10AM, 1:55PM, 2:30PM)

 :lol: :lol: :O  :lol: :lol:

Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #58 on: May 27, 2012, 03:26:40 AM »
LAX seems to be running about 10-15 minutes late tonight.....they were/have been having extremely srtong winds off the ocean the last few days.......

I suspect the teams get tickets and instructions to stay on the same alrline......no changing in Taipei........it will separate the teams by about an hour in Shanghai.
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Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #59 on: May 27, 2012, 04:12:43 AM »
If China is correct, it would be the second country after Brazil to have the first leg more than once.
-Brazil was visited first on three different seasons (2, 9, 13)
-China was last visited on the first leg on Season 10
 


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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #60 on: May 27, 2012, 06:05:39 AM »
Really? Shanghai again? Hopefully not..

Offline Dom

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #61 on: May 27, 2012, 09:46:18 AM »
Can someone speculate about the start line task and when in ET they will arrive in Shanghai.

The starting task looks amazing if those eleven large metal structures had anything to do with it!

As for arrival in Shanghai, if teams are on the two speculated flights, we can expect them to land in 12 hours and 13.5 hours from now. In New York time, that is at 10.50pm and 12.05am this evening.

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #62 on: May 27, 2012, 09:51:03 AM »
They could go to Hangzhou, they haven't been there :duno:

Offline kenchan

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #63 on: May 27, 2012, 11:44:34 AM »
Regarding those tweets with pictures from the live tweets thread...
Maddy, Kendall and Hailey all seem to be part of the same group of girls :ghug: going to Myanmar (some religious group?).
Some of them are posing together in this shot:
https://twitter.com/KendalJameson/status/206521080159027201

No wonder they all posed in the same way!   :tup:
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #64 on: May 27, 2012, 12:17:51 PM »
Okay...I think I can reveal it now...
1st destination is:Shanghai,China :hearts:

Well actually, Shanghai is the only destination that makes sense from flight stats.....there are not any other cities that fit the flight profiles except either Hong Kong or Macau.....and they might go there......but I would think after they go someplace else in China first......

Eva Air  BR15      1:35 am-6:20 am   LAX>TPE
Eva Air  BR712  10:10 am-12:05pm TPE>PNG

China Airlines  CI7     1:15-6:10   LAX>TPE
China Airlines  CI501 9:05 am-1050am  TPE>PVG

Why separate the teams to Taipei though?

I can answer the last question. Based on some studies I did of all the reasonable possibilities, nonstops to Shanghai were too separate in time from any connections in TPE, ICN, NRT, KIX, or PEK (that one was not too bad). However, having both sets of teams go through Taipei keeps them a reasonable separation apart, 75 minutes.


Offline redwings8831

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #65 on: May 27, 2012, 12:22:27 PM »
Okay...I think I can reveal it now...
1st destination is:Shanghai,China :hearts:

Well actually, Shanghai is the only destination that makes sense from flight stats.....there are not any other cities that fit the flight profiles except either Hong Kong or Macau.....and they might go there......but I would think after they go someplace else in China first......

Eva Air  BR15      1:35 am-6:20 am   LAX>TPE
Eva Air  BR712  10:10 am-12:05pm TPE>PNG

China Airlines  CI7     1:15-6:10   LAX>TPE
China Airlines  CI501 9:05 am-1050am  TPE>PVG

Why separate the teams to Taipei though?

I can answer the last question. Based on some studies I did of all the reasonable possibilities, nonstops to Shanghai were too separate in time from any connections in TPE, ICN, NRT, KIX, or PEK (that one was not too bad). However, having both sets of teams go through Taipei keeps them a reasonable separation apart, 75 minutes.

Yeah, I meant that all teams could've been on the same flight from LAX to TPE and then separated on the two flights to Shanghai. Why put them on two flights to TPE that arrive 10 minutes apart?

Offline Dom

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #66 on: May 27, 2012, 12:41:17 PM »
Yeah, I meant that all teams could've been on the same flight from LAX to TPE and then separated on the two flights to Shanghai. Why put them on two flights to TPE that arrive 10 minutes apart?

Because then you can have two distinct counters at LAX that teams need to get to. Having teams on separate flights from LAX makes them seem a lot more separate in the footage.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #67 on: May 27, 2012, 12:48:43 PM »

Yeah, I meant that all teams could've been on the same flight from LAX to TPE and then separated on the two flights to Shanghai. Why put them on two flights to TPE that arrive 10 minutes apart?

I will give a different answer: Because that is the way World Race Productions does things. They typically design using 2 specified first flights (with teams qualifying for the quicker arrival at the final destination based on some competition at or near the start line) and sometimes even 3 first flights.

Offline redwings8831

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #68 on: May 27, 2012, 12:53:02 PM »

Yeah, I meant that all teams could've been on the same flight from LAX to TPE and then separated on the two flights to Shanghai. Why put them on two flights to TPE that arrive 10 minutes apart?

I will give a different answer: Because that is the way World Race Productions does things. They typically design using 2 specified first flights (with teams qualifying for the quicker arrival at the final destination based on some competition at or near the start line) and sometimes even 3 first flights.

Since you seem to know everything, when was the last time they used two or more flights to the same connecting city that arrived so closely to each other?

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #69 on: May 27, 2012, 01:02:27 PM »

Yeah, I meant that all teams could've been on the same flight from LAX to TPE and then separated on the two flights to Shanghai. Why put them on two flights to TPE that arrive 10 minutes apart?

I will give a different answer: Because that is the way World Race Productions does things. They typically design using 2 specified first flights (with teams qualifying for the quicker arrival at the final destination based on some competition at or near the start line) and sometimes even 3 first flights.

Since you seem to know everything, when was the last time they used two or more flights to the same connecting city that arrived so closely to each other?
I will sight you the example of AR19, which did not use connecting flights, but those flights to the first destination arrived about 10 minutes apart.

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #70 on: May 27, 2012, 01:03:25 PM »
I think you mean 'cite', apskip ;)
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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #71 on: May 27, 2012, 01:21:58 PM »
China Airlines 007 crossed the International Date Line @ 10:58 am EDT. EVA Air 015 crossed the International Date Line @ 11:33 am EDT, for a differential of +35 min lead for CA007.

At 2:15pm EDT......China Air 007 has approx 3 hours and 25 minutes of flying time to Taipei. Eva Air 015 has approx 4 hours of flying time left to Taipei.

Anticipated wheels down on the runway (NOT gate arrival) @ Shanghai is

CI 501  10:30 pm EDT
BR 712  11:45 pm EDT

IF I did the time conversions correctly.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2012, 01:40:13 PM by DrRox »
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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #72 on: May 27, 2012, 01:28:17 PM »
I'm strongly speculating that one of the earlier flights out of LAX to get to Shanghai contained Phil and production to get ahead of the teams. Got to keep that in mind, folks, Phil has mentioned in the past that in some legs, its a challenge to get ahead of the teams by enough time to film all of his stand ups for a leg so he can leap frog ahead of the teams for the following leg.
Since I don't know when the teams finished departing for LAX from Pasadena, I'm not going to guess which flight that might be.
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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #73 on: May 27, 2012, 02:46:42 PM »
The best I found for Phil is to leave about 11:30 pm from LAX........connect through either Seoul or Quangzhou......and beat the teams to Shanghai by about an hour........
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 21 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #74 on: May 27, 2012, 02:51:02 PM »
Yes, unfortunately he missed all the non stops!
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