Author Topic: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**  (Read 373917 times)

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DavidJunior

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #675 on: February 21, 2012, 04:56:40 PM »
And your proof that Italy is first?  Add to the knowledge base please!

The promos.

Italy is most likely an NEL, seeing that even though Mark/Bopper came in last here, they were spotted (in the promos) in both Azerbaijan (still not 100% confirmed, to my knowledge), and now Nairobi Airport

If Germany were to come before Italy, this leg would be a F7 NEL (excluding the remote possibility of another NEL between B.A. and Germany)

However, we have confirmation of 8 teams making it to Italy:
Joey and Danny (rappelling in the parking garage is in Turin)
Kerri and Stacy (their clip in the promo has also been confirmed as Italy)
Mark and Bopper (seen checking in in Italy; clip in Nairobi airport)
Nary and Jamie (beekeeping task in Tanzania; Nairobi airport clip)
Vanessa and Ralph (Nairobi airport clip; India clip)
Art and JJ (Nairobi airport clip; possible sighting in Hawaii [unconfirmed])
Dave and Rachel (Nairobi clip; Osaka sighting)
Brendon and Rachel (Nairobi clip; Hawaii sighting)

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #676 on: February 21, 2012, 05:00:57 PM »
Remember that while we THINK beekeeping is Tanzania, there is NO confirmation for that yet .

Thanks for the explanation!
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Offline coolio

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #677 on: February 21, 2012, 05:01:45 PM »
If That Multilevel car park is in Osaka,then F4 maybe:
Brendon/Rachel,Dave/Rachel,Joey/Danny,Nary/Jamie
I think we found that the car park is in Italy.

Offline weihen

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #678 on: February 21, 2012, 10:18:43 PM »
The team spotted in Hawaii should be Art/JJ,clothes matched with EP1 interview(black and dark green)



Offline hakushu8

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #679 on: February 21, 2012, 11:02:52 PM »
Guh, it pains me to say it but that seems to be the case. I was prepared to like the Guidos and not these two... let's see if my prejudgment of them will change as the episodes go.
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #680 on: February 22, 2012, 10:19:25 AM »
I believe this is the correct thread for the information I am about to present. Obtaining information on beekeeping activity in Tanzania is very difficult.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #681 on: February 22, 2012, 10:39:02 AM »
I believe this is the correct thread for the information I am about to present. Obtaining information on beekeeping activity in Tanzania is very difficult. What I have is from government studies in either 1992 or 2001, but I think given the nature of this highly decentralized activity they will be adequate for my purpose.

My purpose is to provide a more narrow geographic range for where the beekeeping task we expect to see in the Tanzania episodes or episode. I expect that teams will get to Tanzania overland from Nairobi, so the territory adjacent to that border is the most likely. Here are the regions reported to be the largest ones for beekeeping:

Arusha
Kilimanjaro
Singida
Dodoma
Rukwa
Tabora
Tanga
Mtwara
Lindi

If you recall the geography from AR11 (All-Stars), you can immediately see that Arusha and Kilimanjaro are in those border areas. 

Here are the statistics:
Tanzania Honey Production - High producing areas and Medium producing area
           Annual  Annual
           Potenial Actual
               Tons   Tons
Kahama 4,000   500
Kondoa 3,000    300
Mpanda 8,000 1,500
Kiteto    2,000     250
Sikonge 6,000 2,000
Babati    1,200   150
Urambo  6,000 1,400
Kibondo 4,000    250
Nzega    4,000    400
Handeni 3,000    150
Tabora   5,000  1,200
Kigoma 3,000      100
Chunya  6,000     400
Arumeru 1,500    100
Manyoni  8,000    600
Rufiji       2,500      50
Bukombe 5,000   800
Nkasi      1,500      50
Total 52,000 7,800 in High-Producing areas    21,700 1,400 in Medium-Producing areas

Source: National Beekeeping Programme, 2001.
This information conflicts, as Singida and Lindi honey production was listed in the 2001 study as so low that I truncated it  for space reasons  The regions of Dodma, Rukwa, Tanga, Mtwara did not even make the "really small honey production" list in the 2001 list.

So this is a bit of a conundrum. However, given where Kilimanjaro and Arusha are located, they have a reasonable chance of being the site for a beekeeping task. The previous one in Kibaoni is too far to the west to be reachable without long bus and taxi rides.

addie

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #682 on: February 22, 2012, 10:52:21 AM »
There was also a Bee Keeping Detour in Season 5, Arusha, Tanzania

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #683 on: February 22, 2012, 12:05:33 PM »
addie,

Not quite. That beekeeping was in Kibaoni as stated in my post above. It takes a long bus ride followed by a long taxi ride to get from Arusha to Kibaoni. Kibaoni is very close to the Lake Manyara Overlook.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2012, 12:45:33 PM by apskip »

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #684 on: February 22, 2012, 12:57:50 PM »
The most recent information for Tanzanian beekeeping states that beekeeping is heaviest in Kilimanjaro (major city Moshi), Arusha ()major city Arusha), Tanga (major city Tanga) and Manyara (major city Babati).

Problems of beekeeping programme are associated with man and his traditions, and with bees, and its enemies.

"Tabora Beekeepers Co-operative Society" (TBCS) was formed in 1962, with 100 beekeepers. Arusha Branch of "Wildlife Conservation Society of Tanzania", is funding "Hadza Beekeeping Scheme", to assist traditional hunters to sus-tainably use their environment through production of honey and wax. Care has to be taken when fire is used during harvest. From TBCS, Kipalapala, in 1991, 86.4 tonnes of "organic" honey were exported to UK and Netherlands. However, in 1995, only 10.6 kg honey was collected. In 1997, the following "Training Courses" were conducted: "How to teach beekeeping in Africa"; "How can we solve the prob-lem of low productivity of East African Beekeeping; "Training in beekeeping", in "Forestry Training Institute", Olmotoni; "Beekeeping in Rural Development", in Njiro Centre and Cardiff Univ., UK. Njiro Centre and B & D are co-operating on a project "Sustainable Beekeeping for Africa", funded by UK, DFID. 1st East Africa Workshop was held on "Tabora Natural Organic Honey", gathered without smoke. Nearly all honey is exported. Stored honey for a long time which means high HMF can sell as industrial honey with lower prices.

Traditional beekeeping among Wameru people of northern Tanzania. Social aspects of Ngindo beekeeping, "Tanzania-Canada Beekeeping Project" with CIDA, honey hunting and beekeeping situation in Tanga region, use of modern hives in development programme were summarized[32].

Traditional beekeeping in Tanzania, is done side by side with other socio-economic activities. Stocking of traditional hive is left to chance, excepting baited hives. Maximum occupancy in: Lindi, Mtwara, Rungwa Game Reserve, where Tanzanian traditional hives and Tanzanian commercial hives are used with: baiting, transferring swarms, dividing established colonies, and using of emergency queen rearing during April and June, in lower plains and mountains. Beekeeping industry plays an important part of the economy of arid areas.

"Arusha Beekeepers Association", held a meeting in October 1993. At Tabora, 1994, was a poor year for honey production. In this honey area, the estimated harvest of 360 tonnes could not be obtained due to lack of rain, and less than a tonne was harvested. Training in "Tropical Beekeeping" was conducted in Njiro Centre, in 1996. Fair rains, in 1999, were giving hope that the harvest would be good. TBCS were awaiting June for harvesting honey from Madaha's apiary in Malongwe Forest. The "let alone" method is discouraged by many beekeepers, but still the easiest way for catching swarms."Arumeru Beekeepers Society", Usa River, and "Tree Planting Foundation" are promoting beekeeping in Usa River, Arusha.

In Tarangaire and Manyra National Parks, bees nests are located in hollow trees.

Honey production in Tanzania is dependant on small holders beekeepers, using traditional hives for African honeybees. Over 95% of beekeeping is practised in Savannah Forests "Miombo Woodlands", the rest is carried out in banana and coffee plantations, and where trees are used for hanging hives. Average productiv-ity A. m. scutellata colony/year, using traditional hives, was 15 kg honey and 1 kg wax. Suggested formula for calculation of honey production using wax figures was discussed. Traditional uses of honey and wax in making remedies used to cure various diseases were summarized. A floral calender for beekeeping in North Tanzania was worked-up.

Output honey is mostly brewed into a special beer for Masai ceremonies or exported.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2012, 01:20:13 PM by apskip »


Offline supah

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #685 on: February 24, 2012, 12:28:40 AM »
Now we know Italy is Leg 4 and we’re assuming it is a non-elimination Leg as Mark and Bopper were the last to check in in Turin and they are seen racing later in Azerbaijan. This is probably the first of three NELs/TBCs. That would mean Legs 2 & 3 are elimination Legs. That would mean Leg 4 has 8 teams racing. Based on evidence we know those 8 teams are:

Rachel and Brendon (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)
Dave and Rachel (spotted in Japan)
Nary and Jamie (spotted in Tanzania [preview])
Vanessa and Ralph (spotted in India [preview])
Kerri and Stacy (spotted in Italy [preview])
Mark and Bopper (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview])
Joey and Danny (spotted in Italy [preview])
Art and J.J. (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)


Elliott and Andrew have been spotted at the Pit Stop in Paraguay (Leg 3)
Dave and Cherie have not been sighted past Leg 2

Basically were are 99% sure that:

Dave and Cherie will be eliminated Leg 2
Elliott and Andrew will be eliminated Leg 3

« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 12:46:44 AM by supah3ro »

Offline amazinglatinoamericafan

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #686 on: February 24, 2012, 02:09:54 AM »
Now we know Italy is Leg 4 and we’re assuming it is a non-elimination Leg as Mark and Bopper were the last to check in in Turin and they are seen racing later in Azerbaijan. This is probably the first of three NELs/TBCs. That would mean Legs 2 & 3 are elimination Legs. That would mean Leg 4 has 8 teams racing. Based on evidence we know those 8 teams are:

Rachel and Brendon (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)
Dave and Rachel (spotted in Japan)
Nary and Jamie (spotted in Tanzania [preview])
Vanessa and Ralph (spotted in India [preview])
Kerri and Stacy (spotted in Italy [preview])
Mark and Bopper (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview])
Joey and Danny (spotted in Italy [preview])
Art and J.J. (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)


Elliott and Andrew have been spotted at the Pit Stop in Paraguay (Leg 3)
Dave and Cherie have not been sighted past Leg 2

Basically were are 99% sure that:

Dave and Cherie will be eliminated Leg 2
Elliott and Andrew will be eliminated







Nary and Jaimie also aré in Kenya airport i saw in the preview of the season             

Offline ZouLy

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #687 on: February 24, 2012, 06:31:04 AM »
ROUTE TAR-20....

*MY SPEC*




TAR Aus Season 5 | Tough As Nails Season 2

Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #688 on: February 24, 2012, 06:37:53 AM »
Now we know Italy is Leg 4 and we’re assuming it is a non-elimination Leg as Mark and Bopper were the last to check in in Turin and they are seen racing later in Azerbaijan. This is probably the first of three NELs/TBCs. That would mean Legs 2 & 3 are elimination Legs. That would mean Leg 4 has 8 teams racing. Based on evidence we know those 8 teams are:

Rachel and Brendon (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)
Dave and Rachel (spotted in Japan)
Nary and Jamie (spotted in Tanzania [preview])
Vanessa and Ralph (spotted in India [preview])
Kerri and Stacy (spotted in Italy [preview])
Mark and Bopper (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview])
Joey and Danny (spotted in Italy [preview])
Art and J.J. (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)


Elliott and Andrew have been spotted at the Pit Stop in Paraguay (Leg 3)
Dave and Cherie have not been sighted past Leg 2

Basically were are 99% sure that:

Dave and Cherie will be eliminated Leg 2
Elliott and Andrew will be eliminated Leg 3



I agree and taking it a step further, there are four legs between Turin and Kerala so the first India leg probably consists of the final five. Since we know that:

Rachel and Brendon (spotted in Honolulu)
Dave and Rachel (spotted in Japan)
Vanessa and Ralph (spotted in India [preview])
Art and J.J. (spotted in Honolulu)

Only one other team besides these make it to India. We know Mark and Bopper make it to Azerbaijan, so one team that is not them is eliminated in Germany and one more team that is not them is eliminated in one of the Africa legs. The other Africa leg must be an NEL because five teams need to make it to India. The two teams eliminated in Germany and the first Africa leg must be Kerri and Stacey and the guidos. The possible caveat is that Nary and Jaime were eliminated on that leg we have a clip of them from. So there are two teams that are not the big four above that make it to Azerbaijan. One is Mark and Bopper and the other is the guidos or the agents. One of these teams is eliminated here and the other makes it to India. In India either that mystery team or Ralph and Vanessa are eliminated. The one of these that is not eliminated could make the final three if you think Dave and Rachel are being eliminated in those Osaka pitstop photos.
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Offline weihen

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #689 on: February 24, 2012, 07:04:01 AM »
Now we know Italy is Leg 4 and we’re assuming it is a non-elimination Leg as Mark and Bopper were the last to check in in Turin and they are seen racing later in Azerbaijan. This is probably the first of three NELs/TBCs. That would mean Legs 2 & 3 are elimination Legs. That would mean Leg 4 has 8 teams racing. Based on evidence we know those 8 teams are:

Rachel and Brendon (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)
Dave and Rachel (spotted in Japan)
Nary and Jamie (spotted in Tanzania [preview])
Vanessa and Ralph (spotted in India [preview])
Kerri and Stacy (spotted in Italy [preview])
Mark and Bopper (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview])
Joey and Danny (spotted in Italy [preview])
Art and J.J. (spotted in Kenya Airport [preview], Honolulu)


Elliott and Andrew have been spotted at the Pit Stop in Paraguay (Leg 3)
Dave and Cherie have not been sighted past Leg 2

Basically were are 99% sure that:

Dave and Cherie will be eliminated Leg 2
Elliott and Andrew will be eliminated Leg 3



I agree and taking it a step further, there are four legs between Turin and Kerala so the first India leg probably consists of the final five. Since we know that:

Rachel and Brendon (spotted in Honolulu)
Dave and Rachel (spotted in Japan)
Vanessa and Ralph (spotted in India [preview])
Art and J.J. (spotted in Honolulu)

Only one other team besides these make it to India. We know Mark and Bopper make it to Azerbaijan, so one team that is not them is eliminated in Germany and one more team that is not them is eliminated in one of the Africa legs. The other Africa leg must be an NEL because five teams need to make it to India. The two teams eliminated in Germany and the first Africa leg must be Kerri and Stacey and the guidos. The possible caveat is that Nary and Jaime were eliminated on that leg we have a clip of them from. So there are two teams that are not the big four above that make it to Azerbaijan. One is Mark and Bopper and the other is the guidos or the agents. One of these teams is eliminated here and the other makes it to India. In India either that mystery team or Ralph and Vanessa are eliminated. The one of these that is not eliminated could make the final three if you think Dave and Rachel are being eliminated in those Osaka pitstop photos.
I remember  Azerbaijan coming before Africa? I think Kerri/Stacy and Guidos emilinated in Germany and Azerbaijan,then F6 fly to Africa.

Offline Detoured

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #690 on: February 24, 2012, 11:34:54 PM »
I was looking through this thread, and unless I missed it, I didn't see any discussion of this photo (from the bspencer413 flickr photostream account):



Has this team been speculatively ID'd?

I have several observations about this photo...

1) The team seen in the photos is on the far right set of cables, and in the photos where team Brenchel was clearly identifiable, they were on the far left set of cables.

2) Judging from the distance between the two team members, the lower one was having a hard time and likely took at least twice the  time (or more) to reach the top as the other team member.

3) Brenchel is nowhere to be seen in this photo, but in one that is timestamped just 16 minutes later, they are seen almost at the top of the building.

Comments?

(Note: there is a much higher resolution version of this picture on the photographer's flickr account)

Offline kirby

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #691 on: February 25, 2012, 12:56:37 AM »
I have been lurking here a while and just registered.  Where has that photo been?  The lower person is wearing a red shirt so it has to be team 3.  The top looks very similar to the one Rachel(Rachel and Dave) is wearing at the starting line.

Also it looks like there are 2 bags hanging down from the building maybe counterweights or something.  On the other ropes those bags are at the top of the building.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2012, 01:37:14 AM by kirby »

Offline redskevin88

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #692 on: February 25, 2012, 01:54:14 AM »
I have been lurking here a while and just registered.  Where has that photo been?  The lower person is wearing a red shirt so it has to be team 3.  The top looks very similar to the one Rachel(Rachel and Dave) is wearing at the starting line.

Also it looks like there are 2 bags hanging down from the building maybe counterweights or something.  On the other ropes those bags are at the top of the building.

 :bigwelcome welcome to the family!

Offline cattychic

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #693 on: February 26, 2012, 11:15:10 AM »
I have been lurking here a while and just registered.  Where has that photo been?  The lower person is wearing a red shirt so it has to be team 3.  The top looks very similar to the one Rachel(Rachel and Dave) is wearing at the starting line.

Also it looks like there are 2 bags hanging down from the building maybe counterweights or something.  On the other ropes those bags are at the top of the building.

Look's like Dave and Rachel to me also. Guess we know who final 3 are now.

Offline slpdx

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #694 on: February 26, 2012, 12:04:07 PM »
I have been lurking here a while and just registered.  Where has that photo been?  The lower person is wearing a red shirt so it has to be team 3.  The top looks very similar to the one Rachel(Rachel and Dave) is wearing at the starting line.

Also it looks like there are 2 bags hanging down from the building maybe counterweights or something.  On the other ropes those bags are at the top of the building.

Look's like Dave and Rachel to me also. Guess we know who final 3 are now.

Yes, this is what I'm thinking too.  I have the feeling the teams who finished 1,2,3 last week are just going to swap positions all race and be there together at the end.  Actually the teams that finished in the top 5 in leg 1 are all really strong and I wouldn't be surprised if they are the top 5 at the end as well.  Sadly, the bottom 6 may just drop 1x1.  I hope not though....that would make for a very loooonnng race.


Offline north09

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #695 on: February 26, 2012, 12:06:00 PM »
I have been lurking here a while and just registered.  Where has that photo been?  The lower person is wearing a red shirt so it has to be team 3.  The top looks very similar to the one Rachel(Rachel and Dave) is wearing at the starting line.

Also it looks like there are 2 bags hanging down from the building maybe counterweights or something.  On the other ropes those bags are at the top of the building.

Look's like Dave and Rachel to me also. Guess we know who final 3 are now.

All I see in that photo is a building with some ropes hanging down it. I see no racers what so ever. The only racers we can see in that photo set are Brendon & Rachel and presumably Art & JJ. The third team could still be anybody.

Offline TARFansurvivor

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #696 on: February 26, 2012, 12:28:42 PM »
ROUTE TAR-20....

*MY SPEC*





I also think that this is the route for The Amazing Race 20.
Love The Amazing Race, The Apprentice and Survivor.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #697 on: February 26, 2012, 12:51:51 PM »
TARFanSurvivor and Zouly,,

Your map shows 10 pinpoints while 12 legs are needed for AR20. You must specify where the extra 3 legs will be to gain confidence that your list of countries is complete. I will agree with you if you say Tanzania, but not for any other country you have pinpointed. I believe there are still 2 unknown countries in AR20, all of them repeats from prior races.

Those may all be repeats of other countries in AR20, perhaps Tanzania or maybe Japan.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2012, 03:05:02 PM by apskip »

Offline TARFansurvivor

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #698 on: February 26, 2012, 01:00:45 PM »
TARFanSurvivor,

Your map shows 9 pinpoints while 12 legs are needed for AR20. You must specify where the extra 3 legs will be to gain confidence that your list of countries is complete. I will agree with you if you say Tanzania, but not for any other country you have pinpointed. I believe there are still 2 unknown countries in AR20, all of them repeats from prior races.
Thanks apskip i think that
Leg 5 is Germany
Leg 6 and 7 is Azerbaijan
Leg 8 is Tanzania
Leg 9 is India
Leg 10 and 11 Japan or maybe 2 legs in Tanzania, i think that Germany and India will only have one leg.
Hope that you like my answar.
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Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #699 on: February 26, 2012, 01:05:56 PM »
I have been lurking here a while and just registered.  Where has that photo been?  The lower person is wearing a red shirt so it has to be team 3.  The top looks very similar to the one Rachel(Rachel and Dave) is wearing at the starting line.

Also it looks like there are 2 bags hanging down from the building maybe counterweights or something.  On the other ropes those bags are at the top of the building.

Look's like Dave and Rachel to me also. Guess we know who final 3 are now.

All I see in that photo is a building with some ropes hanging down it. I see no racers what so ever. The only racers we can see in that photo set are Brendon & Rachel and presumably Art & JJ. The third team could still be anybody.

Actually if you zoom in on the high res copy you can see it pretty good:





Top person:

« Last Edit: February 26, 2012, 01:09:50 PM by Prophet »
Physics alone is not enough.

Those who forget history are sure to repeat it.