Author Topic: TAR 19 Speculation and Discussion of SPOILERS (Read 508689 times)

Declive · « **Reply #450 on:** June 28, 2011, 04:01:56 PM »

No. I just posted what i think it's gonna happen.
But i think europe would be on the leg7,probably Servia,Spain or Portugal,what do you guys think?

apskip · « **Reply #451 on:** June 28, 2011, 04:32:34 PM »

There has been no visits to Central America since AR8, so I agree with the notion of AR19 doing one or two stops there. The only visits were AR3 to Mexico City and the Mayan Riviera and AR8 to Panama City and Costa Rica. There was also Jamaica in AR7, but although Caribbean islands are technically North America I don't tend believe that is where AR19 will go.

I disagree on no Europe. It is summer in Europe, the most likely time to visit it. I think 3 legs there are likely. I expect no legs in South America for AR19.

mds1978 · « **Reply #452 on:** June 28, 2011, 05:29:20 PM »

Wait a second. I've been keeping a close watch on this site over the past week and unless I'm missing something major, what evidence is there that Phuket was an actual leg of the race? I don't recall a single sighting there other than a few teams being spotted in the airport ONLY. Not being filmed, by the way.

Today I see several posts that are very definitive about Phuket being the fourth leg, with no disclaimer that it's just speculation. So what am I missing?

I know people get very excited when new info starts coming in, and many want to be the first to post the latest updated timelines, but when someone throws out some spec and then a few people repeat it, suddenly it turns into "fact" and everyone assumes it's confirmed. It's very confusing and frustrating when this distinction isn't made clear, especially when you're following these threads as regularly as I do and you suddenly see that in the two hours since last browsing that things that were just speculation are now being reported as confirmed, and I'm left scratching my head wondering what I missed and on what basis things are being considered confirmed.

Peach usually does a great job distinguishing this when people post stuff, but even today she seems to be confirming the 4th leg being in Phuket, and again, I'm not sure what I'm missing because I don't recall seeing any sightings other than the airport. Could someone please clarify?

Prophet · « **Reply #453 on:** June 28, 2011, 05:32:20 PM »

There have been several good posts that explain why this is likely. My argument is this:

1. We know all teams were on a flight from Bangkok to Phuket.

2. There is no good reason for them to fly from Jakarta to Bangkok to Phuket except that they were doing a leg in the area.

mds1978 · « **Reply #454 on:** June 28, 2011, 05:48:42 PM »

Quote from: Prophet on June 28, 2011, 05:32:20 PM

There have been several good posts that explain why this is likely. My argument is this:

1. We know all teams were on a flight from Bangkok to Phuket.

2. There is no good reason for them to fly from Jakarta to Bangkok to Phuket except that they were doing a leg in the area.

Read my previous posts about this. Specifically, about the perfectly good reasons that a few teams would be spotted in Phuket (and it was a few, not all teams, that were spotted in Phuket) if they were on their way to Elimination Station, which is probably the same one used last season in Ko Samui. I showed how flights through Phuket were over $300 cheaper than the ones that went through Bangkok only.

Am I missing the tweet that reported that all of the teams and crew were spotted in Phuket? And not just in the airport...speaking of which, if Phuket was the destination point, wouldn't the sighting(s) have been of the teams rushing to leave the airport? And isn't that the type of stuff they usually like to film?

theschnauzers · « **Reply #455 on:** June 28, 2011, 06:05:47 PM »

I believe that the sightings on flights headed towards Phuket had more teams (five?) than the number of teams that would have been eliminated by then (three.)

If teams only flew into Phuket, and then went on to locations 50 to 100 miles away from the airport, then there wouldn't likely have been many sightings in Phuket. Yes, the information requires circumstantial evidence, but it's not clear that the conclusion that the ES being in the area this season isn't cut-and-dry either.

We've been able to deduce legs from one airport sighting in other recent seasons, (We had a bit of that in several of the recent seasons), so we'll have to wait and see what other pieces of the mosaic ultimately come ontp the table.

mds1978 · « **Reply #456 on:** June 28, 2011, 06:29:45 PM »

Was any team spotted leaving the airport in Phuket? Is there any indication whatsoever that at least one team, at the very least, was headed toward the exit of the airport?

Having been there myself, I know that there's only one terminal area and one place to catch a taxi. Because it's a popular tourist spot, there are tons of Western travelers at the airport. They would have been spotted, even if leaving Phuket proper...they would have been noticed leaving the airport.
_________

ETA: The bigger point I'm trying to make here is not whether leg #4 is Phuket or not, but rather to find out what criteria, if any, is being used to determine what is speculation and what is confirmed. Usually it's the latter only after there's photo evidence to back it up, and/or more than one person tweets about it/posts a facebook update. Otherwise you're relying on one person's tweet with no evidence, like that jared kid at the start of this race....and we all know how that turned out.

Is there not some sort of standard used for making such distinctions? If not, shouldn't there be?

Declive · « **Reply #457 on:** June 28, 2011, 06:34:20 PM »

Yeah,this flight to Phuket it's a mistery...

Declive · « **Reply #458 on:** June 28, 2011, 06:35:09 PM »

Well,but we already have Malawi and Kenya,right?

Prophet · « **Reply #459 on:** June 28, 2011, 06:53:22 PM »

Quote from: mds1978 on June 28, 2011, 06:29:45 PM

Was any team spotted leaving the airport in Phuket? Is there any indication whatsoever that at least one team, at the very least, was headed toward the exit of the airport?

Having been there myself, I know that there's only one terminal area and one place to catch a taxi. Because it's a popular tourist spot, there are tons of Western travelers at the airport. They would have been spotted, even if leaving Phuket proper...they would have been noticed leaving the airport.
_________

ETA: The bigger point I'm trying to make here is not whether leg #4 is Phuket or not, but rather to find out what criteria, if any, is being used to determine what is speculation and what is confirmed. Usually it's the latter only after there's photo evidence to back it up, and/or more than one person tweets about it/posts a facebook update. Otherwise you're relying on one person's tweet with no evidence, like that jared kid at the start of this race....and we all know how that turned out.

Is there not some sort of standard used for making such distinctions? If not, shouldn't there be?

They were spotted, that's how we know they were there. This is the post that clarifies that I believe.

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,25526.msg622044.html#msg622044

There were too many teams to be headed to ES. I don't know why there were not other sightings but that does not mean they were not there.

Prophet · « **Reply #460 on:** June 28, 2011, 07:01:10 PM »

Also the timing of that Twitter sighting fit with what was already known. There was another sighting of teams in Jogja airport and then in Jakarta buying tickets for a flight to Bangkok. These flights were verified to exist and be plausible using the Internet. So the time she saw teams in Phuket correlated to the arrival time of the flight from Bangkok to there.

So the assumption is made because all the pieces fit together. These sort of things are investigated by the many astute detectives and other contributors here. Not just created based on one sighting. I love photos as well but unfortunately many times one has to make logical leaps without them.

Believe me if Peach is not warning us that it is still spec then we're probably safe.

georgiapeach · « **Reply #461 on:** June 28, 2011, 07:18:27 PM »

I will say this...the flight evidence is pretty conclusive that NON eliminated teams flew to Phuket.

Whether or not they remained there, or perhaps went on to Krabi, for instance, is not determined.

I would have to look back to be sure...but seems to me that the TAR 14 teams may not have been spotted there either...perhaps too many backpackers?

Examining all the evidence is always a good thing, though.

georgiapeach · « **Reply #462 on:** June 28, 2011, 07:19:39 PM »

Quote from: Leafsfan on June 28, 2011, 05:40:38 PM

The link to the safari on facebook doesn't work anymore!

Gee, I wonder WHY that is??

Thank goodness for screencaps!!

guacamole300 · « **Reply #463 on:** June 28, 2011, 07:37:07 PM »

Quote from: georgiapeach on June 28, 2011, 07:18:27 PM

I would have to look back to be sure...but seems to me that the TAR 14 teams may not have been spotted there either...

I remember the photo of Margie/Luke with the rickshaw, and the whole Luke's ankle being a man or a woman's debate, and I think I remember Tammy/Victor being spotted too

but moving on...

Chateau d If · « **Reply #464 on:** June 28, 2011, 07:43:08 PM »

Quote from: mds1978 on June 28, 2011, 05:48:42 PM

Quote from: Prophet on June 28, 2011, 05:32:20 PM
There have been several good posts that explain why this is likely. My argument is this:

1. We know all teams were on a flight from Bangkok to Phuket.

2. There is no good reason for them to fly from Jakarta to Bangkok to Phuket except that they were doing a leg in the area.

Read my previous posts about this. Specifically, about the perfectly good reasons that a few teams would be spotted in Phuket (and it was a few, not all teams, that were spotted in Phuket) if they were on their way to Elimination Station, which is probably the same one used last season in Ko Samui. I showed how flights through Phuket were over $300 cheaper than the ones that went through Bangkok only.

Am I missing the tweet that reported that all of the teams and crew were spotted in Phuket? And not just in the airport...speaking of which, if Phuket was the destination point, wouldn't the sighting(s) have been of the teams rushing to leave the airport? And isn't that the type of stuff they usually like to film?

I think you missed this post: regarding the $300 cheaper flights

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,25487.msg621865.html#msg621865

georgiapeach · « **Reply #465 on:** June 28, 2011, 08:10:55 PM »

Quote from: guacamole300 on June 28, 2011, 07:37:07 PM

Quote from: georgiapeach on June 28, 2011, 07:18:27 PM

I would have to look back to be sure...but seems to me that the TAR 14 teams may not have been spotted there either...

I remember the photo of Margie/Luke with the rickshaw, and the whole Luke's ankle being a man or a woman's debate, and I think I remember Tammy/Victor being spotted too

but moving on...

Thanks guacamole! NOT TAR 14 then, maybe TARA 2?? In any case, an island somewhere :lol:that quite shocked me that no one was spotted. It happens, we can only look harder. Somewhere there may be a tourist on the way home who will upload some photos in a week..or two..or three...or perhaps this will be one of those fun legs where we get to be a little surprised ourselves!

It happens, we can only go with the info we have, and sometimes that can be interpreted in more than one way.

In any case, critical examination of ALL the evidence is what we do.

eddiethejet · « **Reply #466 on:** June 28, 2011, 10:55:25 PM »

That safari link for facebook doesnt work anymore bc it was a direct link to the post and it was removed. However, the fan page for the company is still there.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Land-Lake-Safaris/215299195169191

georgiapeach · « **Reply #467 on:** June 28, 2011, 11:04:34 PM »

Quote from: eddieshi1 on June 28, 2011, 10:55:25 PM

That safari link for facebook doesnt work anymore bc it was a direct link to the post and it was removed. However, the fan page for the company is still there.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Land-Lake-Safaris/215299195169191

Discussed upstream ^^

Worth checking our original post though

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,25526.msg622492.html#msg622492

georgiapeach · « **Reply #468 on:** June 29, 2011, 01:46:20 PM »

Nairobi with a major blackout.

All of Lilongwe blacked out. Cars lined up for fuel...scant supplies. O_O

NumfarPTB · « **Reply #469 on:** June 29, 2011, 02:19:46 PM »

I think the chances of Europe Summer are greater than South America Winter.
(Though Patagonia or Barriloche in Argentina, would be pretty to shoot in HD. Or heading to Ecuador + Galapagos Island would be another gorgeous option, and was used for the TAR_LA2 final leg)

Someone should check flights destinations from Malawi for the upcoming days, might give us a better clue for possible following leg. I don't have data at hands now, But I think there will definitely be more flight destinations to Europe from Malawi, than to South America.

mds1978 · « **Reply #470 on:** June 29, 2011, 02:47:39 PM »

Of course they're going to Europe. Aside from the family edition, the only time they skipped Europe was in season 2.

Declive · « **Reply #471 on:** June 29, 2011, 03:41:51 PM »

The Amazing Race 19 Season Premiere : 09/25

Flamant · « **Reply #472 on:** June 29, 2011, 04:00:34 PM »

Is there still a possibility for a new european country (Malta, Ex-Yugoslavian countries, Belgium, Denmark, Letonia, or even Slovakia), now that we have Indonesia & Malawi?

georgiapeach · « **Reply #473 on:** June 29, 2011, 04:03:49 PM »

Quote from: flamant777 on June 29, 2011, 04:00:34 PM

Is there still a possibility for a new european country (Malta, Ex-Yugoslavian countries, Belgium, Denmark, Letonia, or even Slovakia), now that we have Indonesia & Malawi?

We only have 6 legs, so of course!

theamazingracefan100 · « **Reply #474 on:** June 29, 2011, 04:29:57 PM »

Hey everyone someone on tweeter has just said the Contestants are in toronto

News:

Author Topic: TAR 19 Speculation and Discussion *of SPOILERS* (Read 508689 times)

Author Topic: TAR 19 Speculation and Discussion of SPOILERS (Read 508689 times)