Author Topic: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*  (Read 183018 times)

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Offline RichInSydney

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #725 on: January 13, 2010, 03:37:26 PM »
Quote
There has to be either a Europe or Oceania leg, so this could make sense
???  Not necesasarily.

I explained my reasons for this before. If they had a leg in Europe, you would have expected a spoiler by now, plus the flight via Dubai to Malaysia would make less sense unless they did Europe first then Africa. Also the amount of European legs in the last two seasons makes is less likely, but yes not impossible.

The route that has been spoilt so far doesn't really allow a leg in Oceania (which is not a continent btw). I know people in the US think Australia is some far off distance land, but we do have a lot of people and the technology to have spoiled this by now unless they went directly to the outback or hid in the bush the whole time! :lol:
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Offline Hooky

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #726 on: January 13, 2010, 03:55:10 PM »
Quote
There has to be either a Europe or Oceania leg, so this could make sense
???  Not necesasarily.

I explained my reasons for this before. If they had a leg in Europe, you would have expected a spoiler by now, plus the flight via Dubai to Malaysia would make less sense unless they did Europe first then Africa. Also the amount of European legs in the last two seasons makes is less likely, but yes not impossible.

The route that has been spoilt so far doesn't really allow a leg in Oceania (which is not a continent btw). I know people in the US think Australia is some far off distance land, but we do have a lot of people and the technology to have spoiled this by now unless they went directly to the outback or hid in the bush the whole time! :lol:

Are we no longer going on the assumption that there are five continents, then? ???


Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #727 on: January 13, 2010, 03:59:11 PM »
No one has ever thought that Australia was visited, seeing as a team was sighted on a flight from Dubai to Kuala Lumpur.
Right now, it appears as if Asuncion is likely true, which would give 5 legs in South America. We are also assuming that there was a leg in Kuala Lumpur. This leaves legs 6 and 7 unaccounted for.

Macaroons stated that there were 5 continents. Considering his track record, he may very well be correct.

All I know is that TAR 16 should have at least 2 new countries.

I HIGHLY suggest we take the Djibouti "sighting" with a grain of salt, though.

The location of the Elimination Station often hints at where teams could be eliminated.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #728 on: January 13, 2010, 05:36:04 PM »
With no time for an Oceania visit and with the spoiler about 5 continents, that means Europe and Africa MUST have at least one leg each (unless Antarctica got a special visit, I'd like to hear what Caitlin thinks of that :lol3: )

Assuming that five continents is true, which I hope it is (after the last two seasons) that means that if Djibouti is correct, then I have either two possibilities:

OPTION #1: Five legs is South America, then one each in Africa and Europe, before the horde of Asian legs and the finale.

OPTION #2: Perhaps there was only four legs in South America (just random speculation :duno: ) and then we can have one in Europe and two in Africa (or vice versa) and then the rest in Asia.

I'd think that Option #1 would probably be more likely with current information, but I like the idea in Option #2.
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Offline chill_sd

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #729 on: January 13, 2010, 05:59:03 PM »
Let me get this in writing before anything gets written in stone.

We have two tenuous references, one to "Alemania" and one to Asuncion, Paraguay.

I, personally, put more faith in the Alemania reference, which came from a reporter writing about the Bariloche leg.

The Paraguay reference came from someone who saw camera/sound crews in an airport.  No teams were spotted.  Don't the camera and sound men follow the teams, rather than go ahead of them?  Something just doesn't add up.


Offline redskevin88

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #730 on: January 13, 2010, 07:59:38 PM »
Leg 1: USA - Chile
Leg 2: Chile
Leg 3: Chile - Argentina
Leg 4: Argentina #2
Leg 5: Argentina - Paraguay
Leg 6: Paraguay - Germany
Leg 7: Germany- Djibouti
Leg 8: Djibouti - Malaysia
Leg 9: Malaysia
Leg 10: Malaysia - Singapore
Leg 11: Singapore - China
Leg 12: China - USA

Wiki says they when to Germany after S.America, we don't know if there are 12 legs, but this should be it.

Do you really believe that Wikipedia knows more than we do here?

http://www.anbariloche.com.ar/noticia.php?nota=11904

Assuming you can read Spanish... it says they when to Germany after finishing in Baroliche, Argentina.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #731 on: January 13, 2010, 11:56:34 PM »
Leg 1: USA - Chile
Leg 2: Chile
Leg 3: Chile - Argentina
Leg 4: Argentina #2
Leg 5: Argentina - Paraguay
Leg 6: Paraguay - Germany
Leg 7: Germany- Djibouti
Leg 8: Djibouti - Malaysia
Leg 9: Malaysia
Leg 10: Malaysia - Singapore
Leg 11: Singapore - China
Leg 12: China - USA

Wiki says they when to Germany after S.America, we don't know if there are 12 legs, but this should be it.

Do you really believe that Wikipedia knows more than we do here?

http://www.anbariloche.com.ar/noticia.php?nota=11904

Assuming you can read Spanish... it says they when to Germany after finishing in Baroliche, Argentina.

I can read spanish and portuguese............but that doesnt answer my question you believing Wikipedia knws more than we do, does it now. That is all I was asking. Thanks
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #732 on: January 13, 2010, 11:57:51 PM »
The route that has been spoilt so far doesn't really allow a leg in Oceania (which is not a continent btw)

Under some models Oceania is considered a continent (in Spanish, in English it's "Australia"). It varies depending which one they teach in schools. Some models consider both North America & South America as the same continent. So the 5-continent supposition could be true depending on how you divide the continents.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2010, 12:01:37 AM by Dån (cdfe88) »
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Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #733 on: January 14, 2010, 12:59:49 AM »
Leg 1: USA - Chile
Leg 2: Chile
Leg 3: Chile - Argentina
Leg 4: Argentina #2
Leg 5: Argentina - Paraguay
Leg 6: Paraguay - Germany
Leg 7: Germany- Djibouti
Leg 8: Djibouti - Malaysia
Leg 9: Malaysia
Leg 10: Malaysia - Singapore
Leg 11: Singapore - China
Leg 12: China - USA

Wiki says they when to Germany after S.America, we don't know if there are 12 legs, but this should be it.

Do you really believe that Wikipedia knows more than we do here?

http://www.anbariloche.com.ar/noticia.php?nota=11904

Assuming you can read Spanish... it says they when to Germany after finishing in Baroliche, Argentina.

I can read spanish and portuguese............but that doesnt answer my question you believing Wikipedia knws more than we do, does it now. That is all I was asking. Thanks

Where I come from, schools teach you to never trust Wikipedia. The sources at the bottom of the page, however... :umn:

Offline valor boreal

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #734 on: January 14, 2010, 06:27:21 AM »
I'm hunting for inconsistencies here.

First: The last tweet in Asuncion was posted at 3:34am, which translates into 7.34am Paraguay time. (The timestamp's time zone was determined on the day of the postings, when it listed times as "X hours ago.") The arrival time in Montevideo is supposedly at 7.03am computer time, or 12.03pm Uruguay time. This fits well with PU 706, leaving Asuncion at 9.20am and scheduled to arrive at 12.05pm in Montevideo. However, the tweet "finally!!!! see you soon amigos uruguayos!!!!" was posted at 7.34am. What could the "finally" refer to, if the flight to Montevideo leaves two hours later?

Second: Amy posts that "my friend and i assumed the crew were expecting people from BA...that's where the ticket agent assumed i was going." The last flight to Buenos Aires left at 6.00am, and the next one isn't until 1.00pm. Is it normal for a ticket agent at the airport to assume someone was going to Buenos Aires if she arrives at 7am?

And just something I was wondering, why was Twitter on Mountain Time?
I had the last of the early tweets as being at 8:34am Paraguayan time (45 minutes before PU 706 was due to leave) and the first of the later tweets at 1:03pm Uruguayan time, which would have given her an hour after the flight landed (which still isn't much time at all, but if MVD is anything like ASU, it could be possible).



« Last Edit: January 14, 2010, 06:32:03 AM by valor boreal »


Offline Neobie

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #735 on: January 14, 2010, 07:23:50 AM »
I had the last of the early tweets as being at 8:34am Paraguayan time (45 minutes before PU 706 was due to leave) and the first of the later tweets at 1:03pm Uruguayan time, which would have given her an hour after the flight landed (which still isn't much time at all, but if MVD is anything like ASU, it could be possible).

Hmm, I think you're right. Shifting everything an hour back makes the timings possible. If this is a hoax it was definitely well planned around flight schedules. The Buenos Aires bit still sticks out as something strange though. Does the Twitter account displaying Pacific Time mean anything though - any Twitter experts here?
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #736 on: January 14, 2010, 11:44:35 AM »
I also like the reference to Hoopties.

I'm banking on this until we get something that says no.
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Offline Hooky

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #737 on: January 14, 2010, 12:47:16 PM »
The route that has been spoilt so far doesn't really allow a leg in Oceania (which is not a continent btw)

Under some models Oceania is considered a continent (in Spanish, in English it's "Australia"). It varies depending which one they teach in schools. Some models consider both North America & South America as the same continent. So the 5-continent supposition could be true depending on how you divide the continents.

By now we know what criteria the producers use to decide whether a landmass is a continent or not. The model they are using is one where Australia and the islands of the Pacific are considered one continent, and North America/South America are considered two separate continents. This is proven by the number of continents they have stated that each season would visit, and is the usual interpretation taken in the U.S. So there shouldn't be a dispute over interpretation of continental boundaries IF the information came from someone from the United States.

For me personally, Australia and the islands of the Pacific can be collectively referred to as one continent - Oceania or Australia. Either name works.

Offline apskip

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #738 on: January 14, 2010, 03:50:08 PM »
Hooky,
An excellent and lucid summary of the geography involved. Thanks.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #739 on: January 14, 2010, 05:25:36 PM »
One question about the time zones and those tweets. Is Daylight Savings Time in the Southern Hemisphere being taken into account? And as is the case between North America and Europe, the periods countries observe DST vary.
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #740 on: January 14, 2010, 05:43:48 PM »
One question about the time zones and those tweets. Is Daylight Savings Time in the Southern Hemisphere being taken into account? And as is the case between North America and Europe, the periods countries observe DST vary.

Let me work this one over again. Both Paraguay and Uruguay were on Daylight Savings Time in December, putting them at -3 and -2 GMT respectively. I noted that the Twitter postings were from "seven hours ago" as I posted at 1.33pm RFF time (EST or -5 GMT), meaning that the tweets came in at around 8.33am in Asuncion. The Twitter timestamps were five hours behind, putting it at -8 GMT, or PST.

As Valor Boreal notes, there is a gap between the Asuncion and Montevideo tweets at 8.34am and 1.03pm (both local time), corresponding to the flight scheduled from 9.20am to 12.05pm (both local time as well). Amy knows the flight schedules. If this is a hoax it's not going to be too easy to disprove...
« Last Edit: January 14, 2010, 05:57:24 PM by Neobie »
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #741 on: January 14, 2010, 09:55:52 PM »
Okay, this is PURE spec.

But Macaroons does expect that this race should hit 5 continents.

So since Germany is the only clue we have for Europe...I started thinking about where they might go, and what they might do there? Given that the timing was pre-Christmas, I wonder if perhaps they could have gone to one of the many Christmas markets? These are all over, (Frankfurt has a very popular one, only 15 minutes from the airport, and the dates fit), and crowded....so perhaps a few more travellers and even cameras could blend in? Which might explain our lack of sightings there (hide in plain sight :lol:)




More market info: http://www.germany-christmas-market.org.uk/

Just an idea. Still not entirely trusting the Germany spoiler, but this would be fun to see. And Oceania is difficult to fit into our schedule...
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Offline Zack.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #742 on: January 14, 2010, 11:05:53 PM »
Given TPTB's predisposition for nonstop flights recently (or else flights with simple connecting routes), I wonder if it would be possible to have a leg (or two) in Spain or Portugal. Most major cities in South America fly direct to Madrid and Lisbon, and while Asuncion doesn't, one can connect from Asunction to Santiago, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Rio, etc. for the transatlantic part.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #743 on: January 15, 2010, 12:08:38 AM »
Would Slovenia be a viable option?

I mean anywhere in Europe is a definite possibility if it's only one leg, and you know how they love going to New Eastern European countries

and if it were in Northern Slovenia, Vienna (which has flights directly to Ethiopia) is just a short drive away, whether that's just a connection city or hosts an actual leg is up to time constraints.  Would we be able to fit 2 legs between Paraguay (around 7-8 of December) and Djibouti (possibly 11-12 of December)?

and since Slovenia is a new country, it may be a little harder to dig up spoilers from it, and Austria could also be a hit or miss type thing...

just throwing other possibilities out there...

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #744 on: January 15, 2010, 01:00:15 AM »
Well would it be resonable if they had 2 legs in Africa? They could have gone to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia first via Franfurt,Germany (maybe a couple of teams only have confirmed seats to Germany :duno:. There are some flights from Addis Ababa depending on the date and there also is a 24 hr train from Addis Ababa.
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Offline redskevin88

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #745 on: January 15, 2010, 06:16:43 AM »
Okay, this is PURE spec.

But Macaroons does expect that this race should hit 5 continents.

So since Germany is the only clue we have for Europe...I started thinking about where they might go, and what they might do there? Given that the timing was pre-Christmas, I wonder if perhaps they could have gone to one of the many Christmas markets? These are all over, (Frankfurt has a very popular one, only 15 minutes from the airport, and the dates fit), and crowded....so perhaps a few more travellers and even cameras could blend in? Which might explain our lack of sightings there (hide in plain sight :lol:)


But they could not have placed detour/roadblock/pit stop all around one place...

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #746 on: January 15, 2010, 11:18:38 AM »
Frankfurt is a nice sized city...not saying that ALL the tasks would be in a market of course...anyway it is only spec.

WHat does seem likely is

1) 5 continents, so where is #5??
2) after reviewing woden's lovely Timeline>> it seems as though we can have EITHER Asuncion OR Germany, but perhaps not both (two different spoilers for the same timeframe?)  ???
3) I do like 2 legs in Africa, Ethiopia would make perfect sense, but having spent a fair bit of time in that area myself...a 24 hour train would be cruel!! :lol: and we don't have time in the schedule for that anyway, I don't think....

OTOH, it seems as though we may get some Dijibouti pics soon!! :yess: Always possible that could be a double leg as well until we hear otherwise.
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Offline Coutzy

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #747 on: January 15, 2010, 11:27:48 AM »
Frankfurt is a nice sized city...not saying that ALL the tasks would be in a market of course...anyway it is only spec.

WHat does seem likely is

1) 5 continents, so where is #5??
2) after reviewing woden's lovely Timeline>> it seems as though we can have EITHER Asuncion OR Germany, but perhaps not both (two different spoilers for the same timeframe?)  ???
3) I do like 2 legs in Africa, Ethiopia would make perfect sense, but having spent a fair bit of time in that area myself...a 24 hour train would be cruel!! :lol: and we don't have time in the schedule for that anyway, I don't think....

OTOH, it seems as though we may get some Dijibouti pics soon!! :yess: Always possible that could be a double leg as well until we hear otherwise.


From what I've seen here, the 5 continents look like NA->SA->EUR->AFR->ASIA

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #748 on: January 15, 2010, 12:22:33 PM »
IF we have Germany...if we have Asuncion, then we don't have Germany if I am looking at the Timeline infocorrectly...so where then?? :duno:

I need to go back to all the original posts and take another look at Germany though... or maybe WODEN can help us out here??
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #749 on: January 15, 2010, 02:50:20 PM »
We don't have any sightings in Asuncion.  We're putting a lot of confidence in someone who claims to have seen support crews ahead of the racers.  (Aren't they usually with the racers?)