Author Topic: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*  (Read 277698 times)

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Offline ltvols

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #575 on: December 18, 2009, 09:39:56 PM »
WOW....i think they've gotten tons of information so far.....first, the pics of the teams at LAX...info on their legs in S.America, an elimination photo, pics of Phil in Penang, racers in Singapore, and a pic with two teams at sequester.   I think it's awesome how all of this works.   It's absolutely amazing how diligently everyone here works to gain information from around the world....the world sure seems a little smaller after following these guys here in this forum.

Offline mjriches2005

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #576 on: December 19, 2009, 09:38:36 AM »
Some more patterns!

Start line/First country:

NYC/Zambia (S. Africa does not count)
LV/Brazil
Miami/Mexico
LA/Italy
LA/Uruguay
Chicago/Iceland
LA/Peru
FE doesn't count
Denver/Brazil
Seattle/China
Miami/Ecuador

All starting lines are now in LA  :cmas15

Ireland
Brazil
Switzerland
Japan
Chile

So, only TAR 1 began in Africa. TARs 4,6,12,14 started in Europe, while TAR 10/15 started in Asia. The rest had their first destination in SA, with the exception of TAR 3 in NA.

Finish line locations:
NYC
SF
Seattle
Phoenix
Dallas
Chicago
Miami
once again 8 doesn't count
Denver
NYC
SF (here's where it gets interesting)
Alaska
Portland
Hawaii
Las Vegas

So, we may be possibly due for a final city not in the continental US. Saipan's a pretty nice place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saipan

Technically South Africa on TAR1 does count since they had to sign up for charter flights at Johannesburg-Lanseria Airport.  Also Panama in the Family Edition would be counted because its technically a new country in that season.  Also for the record, Season7 ended in Ft Lauderdale, Family Edition ended near Niagara Falls, and Season 10 ended north of NYC in a town called Garrison.  I would also counted Girdwood, Alaska and Maui, Hawaii for Seasons 12 and 14 as well instead of listing them as just Alaska and Hawaii.











Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #577 on: December 19, 2009, 10:08:44 AM »
I've never missed a seson of TAR either.  I'm a newby here, and have been lurking for a few weeks.  I have tried to understand how so many people can post about absolutely nothing. After reading the post here, I have very little information about TAR 16.  I guess this is good entertainment for some, but is there ever any reliable information on how the race is progressing?  My guess is that the race is over by now, and we still don't have any concrete information other than the fact that Jeff & Jordan were in the race.   

The reason you probably haven't found any real information in this thread is its the "Speculation" thread. There are other threads that are based on destinations and confirmed sightings/tweets that should have more real information.

Then you haven't been reading the live sightings thread and the destination and contestant threads.
this board gives you the overview for all the TAR 16 discussions:

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/board,113.0.html

As of last night when you posted, your guess that the race is over is also incorrect. ;)
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Offline topaz

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #578 on: December 19, 2009, 07:30:58 PM »
I'd read some of the posts here that TAR 16 had already done on filming, and we've never know what will be the final city on that season.  I'd also read some sightings in Singapore and Malaysia, last week in which they'd already raced on the Asian continent, but none in my country [the Philippines, since they'd visited on season 5] had a news or rumors that TAR 16 was filmed here.  That's sad probably because the producers of TAR want to turn away to my country right now due to the incident on Maguindanao massacre which happened almost a month ago.  Blame the election-related political violence in my country!!! :cmas4

But if they're already in Malaysia and Singapore and there are only 3 or 4 remaining legs after visited these 2 countries, and they'd didn't visited Philippines due to that incident, that means did they'd revisit either of these 3 East Asian countries like in South Korea [previously visited on TAR4], Taiwan [previously visited on TAR12] or Japan [previously visited on TAR 9, 12 & 15] which in spite on those countries had already been featured on TAR on the previous season but wasn't very popular to this show on those 3 countries or even raced in the Russian Far East region [on Vladivostok side] which was similar to TAR 14 before heading back to the US?  Just my speculation, guys and Merry Christmas as well! :cmas9

Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #579 on: December 19, 2009, 07:57:58 PM »
I'd read some of the posts here that TAR 16 had already done on filming, and we've never know what will be the final city on that season.  I'd also read some sightings in Singapore and Malaysia, last week in which they'd already raced on the Asian continent, but none in my country [the Philippines, since they'd visited on season 5] had a news or rumors that TAR 16 was filmed here.  That's sad probably because the producers of TAR want to turn away to my country right now due to the incident on Maguindanao massacre which happened almost a month ago.  Blame the election-related political violence in my country!!! :cmas4

But if they're already in Malaysia and Singapore and there are only 3 or 4 remaining legs after visited these 2 countries, and they'd didn't visited Philippines due to that incident, that means did they'd revisit either of these 3 East Asian countries like in South Korea [previously visited on TAR4], Taiwan [previously visited on TAR12] or Japan [previously visited on TAR 9, 12 & 15] which in spite on those countries had already been featured on TAR on the previous season but wasn't very popular to this show on those 3 countries or even raced in the Russian Far East region [on Vladivostok side] which was similar to TAR 14 before heading back to the US?  Just my speculation, guys and Merry Christmas as well! :cmas9

The final city is SF, and filming wrapped up today. Too bad I couldn't drive there today  :cmas4


Offline jerseydude

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #580 on: December 21, 2009, 01:47:51 AM »
My speculation is that they went to Nanking East Road. There is like a part of the street blocked as a shopping area. It is also near most of the tourist attractions like the Bund and other things. If you have any more info or need any translating just let me know. I've been searching on China's "Facebook" but nothing is on it.

Below is is screenshot of a map. The Green line is the Subway Line 2 and should be part of Nanjing road. I circled the hot tourist spot in red. (Huangpu District)

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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #581 on: December 21, 2009, 02:44:03 AM »
Good job jerseydude!!
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Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #582 on: December 21, 2009, 04:50:35 AM »
Over in the Tweets topic, I brought up that the Letterman Digital Arts Center mentioned in a tweet was the home of Industrial Light and Magic. Caelestor thought this sounded like a likely place for the memory roadblock that often happens just before the race to the mat. I agree. I believe Puddin and Peach have said they already know where the mat location was, but I thought I'd speculate a bit anyway, using my knowledge from having lived in the San Francisco area for most of my life until I moved away 10 years ago. The Letterman Digital Arts Center is about 1 to 1.5 miles from the south end of the Golden gate Bridge. There are several scenic and/or park like settings near by that would make a great backdrop from the conclusion of the race. Most could have a footrace to the mat rather than grabbing cabs.

Fort Point is the old Army battery at the entrance to San Francisco Bay. As you can see, the Golden Gate Bridge is right over head. It's about 1.5 to 2 miles from Letterman. This location would probably require cabs for the teams. It might also be a little restricted on space for the production crew.



Crissy Field is along the water's edge and extends east away from Fort Point and used to be a part of the Presidio army base. Because it's a former army base, there isn't much housing in the immediate area. It's about 3/4 of a mile from Letterman.



The Marina Green is the park to the east of Crissy Field. This isn't a good picture but my recollection is that it's bigger and roomier than Crissy Field but it's in a populated neighborhood and thus much busier with people jogging and playing. It's about 1 1/4 mile or so from Letterman. Not as likely in my opinion.



The Palace of Fine Arts. This is the only remaining building from the 1915 World's Fair and it's a dramatic backdrop. It's about a half mile from Letterman. The Exploratorium science museum (a hands on type of museum) is next door and I could see something being done there as well, although it's a long way from Coit Tower and far too close to Letterman for it to be a detour site, so most likely they don't use the Exploratorium.



The San Francisco National Cemetery is about a mile away or less, but I can't see them celebrating in a cemetery with grave markers in the background.

I'm guessing Fort Point and Crissy Field are likeliest, but the Palace of Fine Arts is a strong candidate too.

Offline puddin

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #583 on: December 21, 2009, 07:59:49 AM »
Since we don't know for sure I'll put this in Spec .. we "think" Hunters Point may also have been used for the finale, whether for a task or finish line is unknown.

And nice job Plaidmoon2 & jerseydude

Offline apskip

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #584 on: December 21, 2009, 08:10:37 AM »
If Hunters Point was used, there are 2 massive structures in that area, Candlestick Park (current home of the SF 49ers football team and site of the famous Earthquake Game during the 1989 World Series) and the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.


Offline puddin

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #585 on: December 21, 2009, 08:22:09 AM »
If Hunters Point was used, there are 2 massive structures in that area, Candlestick Park (current home of the SF 49ers football team and site of the famous Earthquake Game during the 1989 World Series) and the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.
Candlestick was brought up by Boingo, it might be a good choice. I love the shipyard idea as well.

Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #586 on: December 21, 2009, 08:47:08 AM »
If Hunters Point was used, there are 2 massive structures in that area, Candlestick Park (current home of the SF 49ers football team and site of the famous Earthquake Game during the 1989 World Series) and the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.
Candlestick was brought up by Boingo, it might be a good choice. I love the shipyard idea as well.

I'm almost wondering if someone is pulling your leg. I'm kind of surprised about Hunter's Point being involved. It's reputation is that it's the most ghetto-like part of San Francisco. I believe it is starting to be gentrified in recent years, so it's probably improving. I think you've covered the likeliest locations in that area. I'm fairly sure Candlestick Park was available since the 49ers played in Philadelphia yesterday. As for the Hunter's Point Naval Shipyard, it's been closed for decades and I'm not sure anything much has ever been done with it. It might offer a gritty type of location sort of like the start at the Los Angeles River in TAR 15.

Now that I think about it, there is an old auditorium roughly in that area, the Cow Palace, just across the border in Daly City. Also a couple of parks, McLaren Park and Candlestick Point State Recreation Area, but I don't know much about them.

One thing the Hunter's Point locations have is that they should allow for good isolation and security.

Plaidmoon

Offline puddin

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #587 on: December 21, 2009, 08:54:22 AM »
That's been brought up as well, maybe the general area of Hunters Point? Could have been used as a reference as in area only? I'm not familiar with San Fran. I like the isolation point.



I'm almost wondering if someone is pulling your leg. I'm kind of surprised about Hunter's Point being involved. It's reputation is that it's the most ghetto-like part of San Francisco. I believe it is starting to be gentrified in recent years, so it's probably improving. I think you've covered the likeliest locations in that area. I'm fairly sure Candlestick Park was available since the 49ers played in Philadelphia yesterday. As for the Hunter's Point Naval Shipyard, it's been closed for decades and I'm not sure anything much has ever been done with it. It might offer a gritty type of location sort of like the start at the Los Angeles River in TAR 15.

Now that I think about it, there is an old auditorium roughly in that area, the Cow Palace, just across the border in Daly City. Also a couple of parks, McLaren Park and Candlestick Point State Recreation Area, but I don't know much about them.

One thing the Hunter's Point locations have is that they should allow for good isolation and security.

Plaidmoon

Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #588 on: December 21, 2009, 09:03:51 AM »
I did do a search on McLaren Park. It's the second largest park in San Francisco at 317 acres, so it's reasonably good sized. I saw pictures of a pretty little lake and a striking 700 seat amphitheater, the Jerry Garcia Amphitheater, so it has possibilities. It also has a 9 hole golf course, for what it's worth. I'd post the pictures, but they were just thumbnails. I'm out of time for further searching this morning, so I'll leave it for others to do more digging if so inclined.

Plaidmoon

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #589 on: December 21, 2009, 09:14:14 AM »
That's been brought up as well, maybe the general area of Hunters Point? Could have been used as a reference as in area only? I'm not familiar with San Fran. I like the isolation point.



The idea of Hunter's Point has me scratching my head. All the famous and touristy stuff is mainly in the northern and western part of the city. The southern and particularly the southeastern area where Hunter's Point is are just neighborhoods, poor neighborhoods at that. There's nothing terribly interesting there. At least not up until I left the area in the late 1990s. I actually commuted to school about a mile or two from Hunter's Point for a couple of years back in the 1980s and not once did anybody ever suggest a reason for going over to Hunters Point. It's like the old saying about Oakland. There's no there there.

Plaidmoon

Offline topaz

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #590 on: December 21, 2009, 10:32:24 AM »
in my theory, I think these will be the places and route legs for TAR 16 according to some speculations and reports:

starting point: Los Angeles, USA

Leg 1: Puerto Varas, Chile - 1st non-elimination leg
Leg 2: Puerto Montt, Chile - *
Leg 3: Bariloche, Argentina - *
Leg 4: somewhere in Germany - a blind U-turn to be installed
Leg 5/6: probably somewhere in Europe or a Middle Eastern countries which will be the 1st time to be feature in TAR like Latvia, Slovakia, Moldavia, Slovenia, Belarus, Macedonia, Malta, Cyprus, Qatar, Bahrain and JORDAN. - 2nd non-elimination leg
Leg 7: Kuala Lumpur and Penang, Malaysia
Leg 8: Singapore
Leg 9: Brunei or Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
Leg 10: Shanghai, China - 3rd non-elimination leg and 2nd U-turn to be installed
Leg 11: Shanghai, China
Final leg: San Francisco, USA

* = means there might be a Switchback road block task.

Offline ltvols

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #591 on: December 21, 2009, 11:08:55 AM »
I really don't think Hunter's Point was a site for the race.  Yes, the shipyard thing would be cool - but well, just google Hunter's Point, or search Hunter's Point in Twitter.....just don't think it was used!  Perhaps an attempt to throw people off!

Offline Boingo

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #592 on: December 21, 2009, 11:23:53 AM »
 Just thinkin' out loud here, but this whole 19th vs. 20th finish brings up a few ideas.... we know the JJs and other losers from Mexico sequester arrived in SFO on the 19th (morning?).  Get's one thinking, would BVM risk a flight delay from Mexico to rush the racers to the finish line that same day (SFO is known for fog delays, and I think I read somewhere there was fog in the area on the 19th).  The remaining losers would be fine, as they travel with the final 3 teams as decoys.  If they are delayed then they just move the finish to the next day.  If I were WRP, I would bring the Mexico losers in a day early, just so they would be ready when the final 3 arrive.  So that would imply a final on the 20th.  Not that is really happened that way, but would explain a lot.  OK, I'm done thinking right now.  Carry on.  :cmas23

Edited to add:  :groan:  ...nevermind, JJ and others arrived @SFO Friday 18th, in the evening...
« Last Edit: December 21, 2009, 05:07:23 PM by Boingo »

Offline ltvols

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #593 on: December 21, 2009, 11:44:25 AM »
What "IF" two of the teams were a day behind or a day ahead of the the other team......that would make for two finale's per se....  It's not like a regular leg where Phil  can just go get them....they would, IMO, let them finish the tasks and race to the finish line.

i found this article describing time zone's, flying from china, etc.... from TAR back in 2001 - it's interesting to say the least

http://www.hasbrouck.org/amazingrace/index_12.html

Here's part of the article that got me thinking.....

Any of the racers who figured out this option could have left Beijing within minutes of the San Francisco nonstop, connected in Seoul, and (after crossing the International Date Line) arrived in Anchorage the same morning, twelve hours ahead of those who continued on to San Francisco and then had to double back north to Alaska. Since they wouldn't have had to spend the night before being able to start their tasks in Alaska, they would effectively have gained almost 24 hours on the other teams.


Offline Boingo

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #594 on: December 21, 2009, 11:45:42 AM »
I did do a search on McLaren Park. It's the second largest park in San Francisco at 317 acres, so it's reasonably good sized. I saw pictures of a pretty little lake and a striking 700 seat amphitheater, the Jerry Garcia Amphitheater, so it has possibilities. It also has a 9 hole golf course, for what it's worth. I'd post the pictures, but they were just thumbnails. I'm out of time for further searching this morning, so I'll leave it for others to do more digging if so inclined.

Plaidmoon

No use scratching your head over this when there is a simpler solution.  Sounds like you are a local, so an actual visit to the locations in question could answer some questions.  If anyones up to scouting the "not so nice" neighborhood of Hunter's Point, and ask a few questions of the people there you may come up with some actual sightings and dates.  Just a thought.  Good luck.


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #595 on: December 21, 2009, 12:02:40 PM »
Hunter's Point used to have a bad rep, as I understand. It was known as a drug area, had a toxic waste clean up site....but it appears that the area is being gentrified and slated for a lot of development.

Can NOT rule this out. ;)
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Offline ltvols

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #596 on: December 21, 2009, 12:18:19 PM »
well it is only 8 miles from coit tower....maybe candlestick park

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #597 on: December 21, 2009, 12:31:38 PM »
I will die if the final mat is in Candlestick Park. 

I was staring right at it from 1000 ft elevation at 10:48 am.  I did not think to look closely for anything in the field.  But if I did look and there was production in the field then I would have seen it.   :groan:
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #598 on: December 21, 2009, 02:54:28 PM »
I will die if the final mat is in Candlestick Park. 

I was staring right at it from 1000 ft elevation at 10:48 am.  I did not think to look closely for anything in the field.  But if I did look and there was production in the field then I would have seen it.   :groan:
:chute: would you have jumped out of the plane?

Offline apskip

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #599 on: December 21, 2009, 03:38:29 PM »
Just thinkin' out loud here, but this whole 19th vs. 20th finish brings up a few ideas.... we know the JJs and other losers from Mexico sequester arrived in SFO on the 19th (morning?).  Get's one thinking, would BVM risk a flight delay from Mexico to rush the racers to the finish line that same day (SFO is known for fog delays, and I think I read somewhere there was fog in the area on the 19th).  The remaining losers would be fine, as they travel with the final 3 teams as decoys.  If they are delayed then they just move the finish to the next day.  If I were WRP, I would bring the Mexico losers in a day early, just so they would be ready when the final 3 arrive.  So that would imply a final on the 20th.  Not that is really happened that way, but would explain a lot.  OK, I'm done thinking right now.  Carry on.  :cmas23
boingo,
If you look at the logical nonstop flights from Puerto Vallarta to San Francisco (I listed them in another post), they are all arriving SFO in the early evening. The finale is typically (Las Vegas for AR15 was the only exception I can ever remember) fly-in in the early morning and winners reach the Finish Line later that morning. This necessitates having the teams not F3 or decoy arriving on the prior day, in this case no later than Dec. 19.