Topic: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*

[TARandJJFan]

I realize a lot of people don't like the idea of them spending so much time in one place. But, since they did it in TAR 7 with Rob/Amber's first season, it's definitely possible. Just because you don't want something to be true doesn't mean that it isn't.  

Oh thanks I wasn't aware of this.

Just wanted to clarify that I was responding to those questioning whether they were really in Paraguay or not. I know that most people know that it is definitely possible that the Paraguay information is correct. 

[chill_sd]

Actually, all of the Parguay info seems to have come from a "Porteņo" which means a Buenos Aires local.  So the sighting of junker cars with TAR flags could easily have been in Argentina and not in Paraguay.  The person in Paraguay was hoping to see teams at the airport, but didn't.

In addition, the Buenos Aires sighting could have been related to the local race that we have pictures of.

[DrRox]

I realize a lot of people don't like the idea of them spending so much time in one place. But, since they did it in TAR 7 with Rob/Amber's first season, it's definitely possible. Just because you don't want something to be true doesn't mean that it isn't.  

Oh thanks I wasn't aware of this.

Just wanted to clarify that I was responding to those questioning whether they were really in Paraguay or not. I know that most people know that it is definitely possible that the Paraguay information is correct.  

Actually, in the two Romber seasons, TAR7 and TAR11, they spent 4 legs in South America. In no other TAR did they spend more than 3 legs in South America. The fact that a Paraguay leg on the time the tweeter posted would most likely mean this is the 5th leg in this race, makes its highly suspect to me. That doesn't mean it isnt happening, just makes it strange.

[DavidJunior]

I'm wondering...

did the paper actually say that Germany was the NEXT location?

or just that they'll be heading to Germany later on?

a vague statement like "going to Germany after Bariloche" could easily mean that Germany will host a later leg, but also could be easily misconstrued into making it sound like it's the very next leg, as some people were thinking

[kyla]

I'm wondering...

did the paper actually say that Germany was the NEXT location?

or just that they'll be heading to Germany later on?

a vague statement like "going to Germany after Bariloche" could easily mean that Germany will host a later leg, but also could be easily misconstrued into making it sound like it's the very next leg, as some people were thinking

Here's the LINK and the translation:

The Amazing Race recorded a stage in San Carlos de Bariloche, before continuing in Germany.

Sounds like they're saying that's where they went once they left Bariloche. I doubt they could find out info that the racers themselves didn't know yet, like where they would be going in a few legs.

[DavidJunior]

I'm wondering...

did the paper actually say that Germany was the NEXT location?

or just that they'll be heading to Germany later on?

a vague statement like "going to Germany after Bariloche" could easily mean that Germany will host a later leg, but also could be easily misconstrued into making it sound like it's the very next leg, as some people were thinking

Here's the LINK and the translation:

The Amazing Race recorded a stage in San Carlos de Bariloche, before continuing in Germany.

Sounds like they're saying that's where they went once they left Bariloche. I doubt they could find out info that the racers themselves didn't know yet, like where they would be going in a few legs.

it might not have been the racers they talked to

production staff could very well know where the teams are going for the entire race, and maybe when they were asked, Germany was the first location that came to mind

but i'm kinda picking at straws... i guess we'll just have to wait until the next tweet or photos come in...

[Seattlite]

I would think that if they were in Germany we would have more sightings already.  Perhaps they are somewhere much more remote.

[puddin]

Slowhatch posted this

It might refer to some German commune/district/local hangout. Germans are all over the Lake District (not those Germans--descendants of these Germans). Almost every town in the region has a Club Aleman or something similar.
And the Rio/Estancio mention might refer to the same place/task: they seem to be situated together.

[Glamazon Racer]

Just wondering, does the article mention what city in Germany they are 'allegedly' headed to?

[DrRox]

No, just Germany.

[Seattlite]

Around this time in AR 7 they headed to South Africa followed by India. Both countries have had less spoilers then when they were seen around Europe. It would make more sense that they were on there way to Germany (this would be info the crew would know), but a little later.

[Polarbear]

Don`t know if I should "steal" Puddins work, so tell me if I shouldn`t have:) She hasn`t been on twitter for a long time so I thought I shoud mention it.

http://twitter.com/d0cc0l

@PuddinRFF a friend told me they were in Asuncion on Dec 7th.The catch a TAM flight towards Sao Paulo, Brazil..may be a connecting flight
about 2 hours ago from web in reply to PuddinRFF
---------
So maybe the sighting we had from the person flying to Uruguay was the crew waiting for the teams to travel FROM Paraguay (after the pitstop). If they were heading for Sao Paulo they could have taken a connecting flight from there as d0cc0l mentions...I`ll leave the flight-research to someone else. I don`t know how.

[apskip]

Polarbear,
You have a fascinating hypothesis. Unfortunately the flights from Asuncion to Sao Paulo do not support it. Here is the list of weekday flights from ASU to GRU:

PZ710 0510 0815 nonstop
PZ706 dep. 1050  change in AGT (Ciudade del Este) with a 20 minute?? connect time, arr. GRU 1430
PZ753 dep. 0920  change MVD (Montevideo), arr. GRU 1510
G37471 dep. 1625 change CWB (Curitibia) arr. 2030
PZ712 1800 2100 nonstop

There are others connecting in Beunos Aires but none that fill a gap in the schedule above. The nonstop flights are offered 7 days a week. I expect the others are also, but I have not taken the time to prove it for Dec. 5 and Dec. 6.

My conclusion from the above is that only one connection is through Montevideo and that one is dominated by a flight connection leaving later and arriving earlier, so why would any team book it?

[Coutzy]

My conclusion from the above is that only one connection is through Montevideo and that one is dominated by a flight connection leaving later and arriving earlier, so why would any team book it?

Because production told them to so they could get a leveller. We've seen it before.

[Caelestor]

Alright, who edited the wiki again?   Oh well, I love speculating anyway!  

It claims that after Paraguay (the 4th Leg, yeah right), Angola is visited for 2 legs, then South Africa, Seychelles, Malaysia, Australia (2 legs). No Europe  

[ZBC Company]

for Gods sakes please stop the madness 

[theschnauzers]

Actually. my suspicion has been that this Race would be South America, Africa and Oceania/Oz/NZ.  I think it'll take more than 21 days, but given how heavy the last two Races have been with Europe and Asia, these three continents/areas were due.

[Hooky]

Actually. my suspicion has been that this Race would be South America, Africa and Oceania/Oz/NZ.  I think it'll take more than 21 days, but given how heavy the last two Races have been with Europe and Asia, these three continents/areas were due.

Yes, but lately it doesn't seem like they have been trying too hard to balance the frequency of the locales they visit. I think there will still be at least one of both Europe and Asia, although if they are going to Australia (continent), that is a lot of continents for one race. We'll see which of the two evils (fewer continents or the mandatory Europe/Asia visit) wins in the end.

[Caelestor]

Actually. my suspicion has been that this Race would be South America, Africa and Oceania/Oz/NZ.  I think it'll take more than 21 days, but given how heavy the last two Races have been with Europe and Asia, these three continents/areas were due.

Yes, but lately it doesn't seem like they have been trying too hard to balance the frequency of the locales they visit. I think there will still be at least one of both Europe and Asia, although if they are going to Australia (continent), that is a lot of continents for one race. We'll see which of the two evils (fewer continents or the mandatory Europe/Asia visit) wins in the end.

It's not bad that they visit Europe and Asia; it's bad that they're recycling places and making mediocre tasks. TAR has exhausted most of Asia, Europe, and S. America. If there was less violence there, the race should definitely spend at least 3 legs in Africa.

[DavidJunior]

Actually. my suspicion has been that this Race would be South America, Africa and Oceania/Oz/NZ.  I think it'll take more than 21 days, but given how heavy the last two Races have been with Europe and Asia, these three continents/areas were due.

Yes, but lately it doesn't seem like they have been trying too hard to balance the frequency of the locales they visit. I think there will still be at least one of both Europe and Asia, although if they are going to Australia (continent), that is a lot of continents for one race. We'll see which of the two evils (fewer continents or the mandatory Europe/Asia visit) wins in the end.

It's not bad that they visit Europe and Asia; it's bad that they're recycling places and making mediocre tasks. TAR has exhausted most of Asia, Europe, and S. America. If there was less violence there, the race should definitely spend at least 3 legs in Africa.

the thing is, there are plenty of places throughout Africa that are at least relatively safe (much of the smaller West African countries, Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, South Africa could definitely use another visit, same with Egypt, etc.)

but the same could go for Europe, Asia, and even South America... (i mean if Colombia is safe enough for another version, why isn't safe enough for us?!)

[theschnauzers]

The fact that regional versions can film in some of these countries doesn't mean it is safe for Americans to travel there, must less Americans with film crews; they'd be seen as targets. TPTB have rarely gone into a country that has safety risks for American travelers (Sri Lanka in 2005 in particular because of the Tamil Tigers rebellion, but the teams stayed on the opposite coast of the island during filming, and teams weren't moving around at night.)

There are a couple of patterns that I think are influencing how the course routes are being laid out. It's clear TPTB are trying to reduce costs by having one or two fewer legs, and by having two legs in the same area before mvoing on, and by using several counties in the same area; in addition, they are using a few long flights so there is a race course that crosses the Equator as little as possible. We know there are flights out of South America that do not require travel to the northern hemisphere that will get the teams to Africa and Oceania/Oz/NZ, and I'm still of the opinion that is why we've haven't had much in the confirmed spoiler tweets/blogs /photos. I also don't think a TAR 7 course is likely either (go to India and then return to North America from Europe without a true circumnavigation of the globe.)

[Mister RC]

It's clear TPTB are trying to reduce costs by having one or two fewer legs, and by having two legs in the same area before mvoing on, qnd by using several counties in the same area

For starters, the best advice for TPTB as a whole in terms of cutting costs I could give would be do away with crap-ass new shows that won't/haven't lasted anywhere near a year anyway (3 Rivers, Kid Nation, Viva Laughlin, etc).  That, and do away with the Speed Bump (or keep it but go back to not having a RB on Leg 1 while omitting another one or a detour later in the race).

Obviously, it's a combination of things that have led to the recent course routes over the years.  As mentioned, the risk factor is rather imperative this day and age, in addition to trying to save.  So much could be happening on the Eastern Hemisphere right now that they have to be very careful how they go about the race.  I hope they're okay; they're safety is more important than the race itself.  Unless they found a way to race sans getting noticed, or if they found a way to pick off people that might be on the lookout for something that they're about to tweet, it should be coming up soon.

[ob-la-di-ob-la-da]

You know, theschnauzers mentioned "crossing the equator," and that got me to thinking... (and I'm new to RFF and spoilers, so I'm sorry if you guys have covered this in the past...)  It seems that during the majority of TAR episodes, the temperatures are fairly warm.  IIRC, the contestants are all bundled up for only one or two legs at the most.  Makes sense -- same reason Survivor  is always on a tropical island -- it makes better TV to see contestants in shorts and t-shirts, rather than jackets and pants.  So in trying to speculate on the TAR16 destinations, would the majority of their travel be in the southern hemisphere, where it's summer (and also near the equator)?   Has anyone here done an analysis of past TAR seasons and whether they're usually filmed wherever it's summer?

[north09]

I believe it depends on when the season is being filmed. TAR15 was filmed from July to August, which made warmer weather during the race. However, TAR14 was filmed during the end of last year. During most of the season teams wore coats untill the final few legs.

[Caelestor]

You know, theschnauzers mentioned "crossing the equator," and that got me to thinking... (and I'm new to RFF and spoilers, so I'm sorry if you guys have covered this in the past...)  It seems that during the majority of TAR episodes, the temperatures are fairly warm.  IIRC, the contestants are all bundled up for only one or two legs at the most.  Makes sense -- same reason Survivor  is always on a tropical island -- it makes better TV to see contestants in shorts and t-shirts, rather than jackets and pants.  So in trying to speculate on the TAR16 destinations, would the majority of their travel be in the southern hemisphere, where it's summer (and also near the equator)?   Has anyone here done an analysis of past TAR seasons and whether they're usually filmed wherever it's summer?

Hence, why teams will most likely avoid Europe and visit the tropics/ Southern Hemisphere (It's summer there.). I expect India, but not China this race.
Santa in shorts!