Author Topic: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*  (Read 277748 times)

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Offline level

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #175 on: December 04, 2009, 07:44:07 PM »
Been lurking around a bit and decided to say that they better go to Australia this race!

Offline Obbyz

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #176 on: December 06, 2009, 05:06:15 AM »
take a look to wikipedia , the future legs have been written on there..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Amazing_Race_16


Offline Coutzy

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #177 on: December 06, 2009, 05:48:40 AM »
The page has already been reverted. Wikipedia doesn't add route info until CBS announces it.

Offline Obbyz

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #178 on: December 06, 2009, 05:55:51 AM »
So , there are fake , right ?

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #179 on: December 06, 2009, 07:06:43 AM »
From what we currently have in the way of tweets, etc the course they gave was correct, but wikipedia is a bit anal retentive about information without hard evidence. On the discussion page, our very own Peach pops up as a source for something, along with the phrase "She very rarely gets it wrong"

But I digress.


Offline Seattlite

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #180 on: December 06, 2009, 09:53:43 AM »
So at this point if they seem to disappear, I would guess maybe a remote part of Africa?

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #181 on: December 07, 2009, 11:20:57 AM »
Last photographic evidence was on Dec 1 at pit stop in Porto Varas, Chile. Newspaper reports of travel from there to Bariloche, Ar. Today, Dec 7th, we have reports of TAR crew and flags at the international airport in Ascunion, Paraguay. Also reports from Bariloche that TAR would be going to Germany.

Estimate a pit stop in Bariloche on Dec 3 with possible 36 hour version to Dec 5th.....so where have then been since Dec 5th? Are they arriving in Paraguay or leaving on Dec 7th?

If they are arriving in Ascunion today, then we have a leg somewhere between Bariloche and Ascunion. If they are leaving Paraguay, then time of Dec 5th to Dec 7th is probably a leg in Paraguay. So maybe they are flying to Germany today, per the Bariloche posting.

http://www.anbariloche.com.ar/noticia.php?nota=11904

Thanks Polarbear for finding the post.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2009, 11:28:55 AM by DrRox »
Matthew 7:15

Offline puddin

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #182 on: December 07, 2009, 11:34:59 AM »
Last photographic evidence was on Dec 1 at pit stop in Porto Varas, Chile. Newspaper reports of travel from there to Bariloche, Ar. Today, Dec 7th, we have reports of TAR crew and flags at the international airport in Ascunion, Paraguay. Also reports from Bariloche that TAR would be going to Germany.

Estimate a pit stop in Bariloche on Dec 3 with possible 36 hour version to Dec 5th.....so where have then been since Dec 5th? Are they arriving in Paraguay or leaving on Dec 7th?

If they are arriving in Ascunion today, then we have a leg somewhere between Bariloche and Ascunion. If they are leaving Paraguay, then time of Dec 5th to Dec 7th is probably a leg in Paraguay. So maybe they are flying to Germany today, per the Bariloche posting.

Where did I miss the Bariloche to Germany reports?

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #183 on: December 07, 2009, 11:41:13 AM »
Where did I miss the Bariloche to Germany reports?



http://www.anbariloche.com.ar/noticia.php?nota=11904

The first part says, "before continuing in Germany."

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #184 on: December 07, 2009, 12:20:03 PM »
It might refer to some German commune/district/local hangout. Germans are all over the Lake District (not those Germans--descendants of these Germans). Almost every town in the region has a Club Aleman or something similar.
And the Rio/Estancio mention might refer to the same place/task: they seem to be situated together.


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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #185 on: December 07, 2009, 12:20:57 PM »
Where did I miss the Bariloche to Germany reports?


The intro of the article translated to:

The Amazing Race recorded in Bariloche


"The city becomes the scene of mega productions for international television, highlighted from the EMPROTUR. The Amazing Race recorded a stage in San Carlos de Bariloche, before continuing in Germany."

Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #186 on: December 07, 2009, 01:11:22 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #187 on: December 07, 2009, 01:16:36 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

What about a TBC leg inlcuding Bariloche and Buenos Aires with a 36 hour pitstop before Paraguay?  Just an idea?!

ETA: I can't remember, where did the Buenos Aires info come from?
« Last Edit: December 07, 2009, 01:44:49 PM by kristin626 »

Offline Hooky

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #188 on: December 07, 2009, 03:07:27 PM »
From what we currently have in the way of tweets, etc the course they gave was correct, but wikipedia is a bit anal retentive about information without hard evidence. On the discussion page, our very own Peach pops up as a source for something, along with the phrase "She very rarely gets it wrong"

But I digress.

I was one of the people who said that! But they berated me about "non-reliable" sources, and blah blah blah.

Now on the topic of the route: If they are going to go anywhere other than South America, they'd better get moving! Five legs is too long to be spent in South America.

But I suspect this season's course will be similar in length and scope to the past four. In other words, there may be only one other continent after this one. :groan:
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive." - C.S. Lewis

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #189 on: December 07, 2009, 03:18:09 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is only one other continent visited this season. The course continues to get shorter and shorter.
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive." - C.S. Lewis

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #190 on: December 07, 2009, 03:52:38 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is only one other continent visited this season. The course continues to get shorter and shorter.

or it could be very similar to TAR 12
have a whole bunch of legs in one general area, and then for the last little bit speed their way around the world (Legs 1-7 Europe/Africa, Leg 8 India, Leg 9-10 East Asia, Leg 11 back in U.S.)

this one could go: Leg 1-5 South America, Leg 6 Africa, Leg 7-9 Europe, Leg 10-12 Asia/Australia? Leg 13 back in U.S. (kind of wishful thinking on the whole going back to 13 legs thing...)


Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #191 on: December 07, 2009, 05:00:03 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is only one other continent visited this season. The course continues to get shorter and shorter.

or it could be very similar to TAR 12
have a whole bunch of legs in one general area, and then for the last little bit speed their way around the world (Legs 1-7 Europe/Africa, Leg 8 India, Leg 9-10 East Asia, Leg 11 back in U.S.)

this one could go: Leg 1-5 South America, Leg 6 Africa, Leg 7-9 Europe, Leg 10-12 Asia/Australia? Leg 13 back in U.S. (kind of wishful thinking on the whole going back to 13 legs thing...)


It looks like nothing will ever top the stupendous TAR 5 route.

Offline north09

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #192 on: December 07, 2009, 06:58:33 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is only one other continent visited this season. The course continues to get shorter and shorter.

or it could be very similar to TAR 12
have a whole bunch of legs in one general area, and then for the last little bit speed their way around the world (Legs 1-7 Europe/Africa, Leg 8 India, Leg 9-10 East Asia, Leg 11 back in U.S.)

this one could go: Leg 1-5 South America, Leg 6 Africa, Leg 7-9 Europe, Leg 10-12 Asia/Australia? Leg 13 back in U.S. (kind of wishful thinking on the whole going back to 13 legs thing...)


It looks like nothing will ever top the stupendous TAR 5 route.

You must certainly be forgeting the TAR8 Route.

I think they'll spend the last leg or two before the final one in Asia.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #193 on: December 07, 2009, 08:32:00 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

What about a TBC leg inlcuding Bariloche and Buenos Aires with a 36 hour pitstop before Paraguay?  Just an idea?!

ETA: I can't remember, where did the Buenos Aires info come from?

I took a look at flights from Bariloche to Asuncion (on Dec 21st, but I think it would be similar to today) and it looks like there is one short and reasonable option daily. There's a flight that leaves at 2:25 PM and arrives at 9:35 PM after stops in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, Uruguay. Other options take 17 to 22 hours. If the leg in Bariloche ended too late for Phil to catch the 2:25 PM flight, I think they would hold Phil for the flight the next afternoon rather than have him fly for almost 24 hours (especially if the teams can catch the 8 hour flight). That would force them to hold the team for the afternoon after that. That would mean a nearly 48 hour pit stop.

AIRLINE                    CITY (AIRPORT)                             ARRIVE    DEPART    AIRLINE/FLIGHT                  # STOPS  AIRCRAFT TYPE
AERO ARGENTINAS    San Carlos DeBariloche (BRC)                         2:25 PM    AERO ARGENTINAS #2679       0    M88 Jet M88 Jet
Operated by: AU    
AERO ARGENTINAS    Buenos Aires (AEP)*                    4:28 PM    6:10 PM    AERO ARGENTINAS #1208    0    735 Jet 735 Jet
PLUNA                    Montevideo (MVD)*                            7:55 PM    8:45 PM    PLUNA #705                            0      CRJ Jet CRJ Jet
                             Asuncion (ASU)                            9:35 PM               

Total Travel Time with Connections: 8h 52m

                           San Carlos DeBariloche (BRC)                        12:55 AM    LAN CHILE #4357                    0    320 Jet 320 Jet
LAN CHILE              Buenos Aires (EZE)*                     3:00 AM    6:30 AM    LAN CHILE #400                    0    318 Jet 318 Jet
LAN CHILE          Santiago (SCL)*                            8:50 AM    2:30 PM    LAN CHILE #5910                    0    320 Jet 320 Jet
                           Asuncion (ASU)                                    4:40 PM    

Total Travel Time with Connections: 20h 25m

                          San Carlos DeBariloche (BRC)                         1:00 PM    LAN CHILE #4345                    0    320 Jet 320 Jet
TACA AIRLINES       Buenos Aires (EZE)*                            3:05 PM    6:10 PM    TACA AIRLINES #24            0    321 Jet 321 Jet
TACA AIRLINES       Lima (LIM)*                                    8:50 PM    9:50 PM    TACA AIRLINES #44            0    319 Jet 319 Jet
                           Asuncion (ASU)                                    3:23 AM               
Total Travel Time with Connections: 17h 28m

It might be possible that they had a leg in Buenos Aires, but they would still have the issue of only a couple of flights a day out of Bariloche and having a lengthy pit stop to let Phil get there in advance of the teams. Unless we get reports of teams moving through Buenos Aires doing tasks, I'd be inclined to think they were seen at the airport waiting for connecting flights.

I'm thinking back to the list of purported leg locations in the removed Wikipedia article for TAR 16. It's still there if you look in the history of revisions:


    * Leg 1 United States → Chile

    * Leg 2 Chile

    * Leg 3 Chile → Paraguay

    * Leg 4 Paraguay → South Africa

    * Leg 5 South Africa → Angola

    * Leg 6 Angola → Spain

    * Leg 7 Spain  → Portugal

    * Leg 8 Portugal

    * Leg 9 Portugal → Belarus

    * Leg 10 Belarus  → Sri Lanka

    * Leg 11 Sri Lanka  → People's Republic of China

    * Leg 12 People's Republic of China  → Canada  → United States

I discounted it when I first saw it because I thought it was unlikely they would go to Sri Lanka due to the terrorism issues with the Tamil rebels. However, if you grant that Bariloche is almost in Chile and that they've apparently gone to Paraguay, I'm a little more intrigued. If they go to South Africa next, then I'll really be intrigued. I'd be interested in asking Wikipedia user Masem where he got this list of countries from, but it'll have to wait until later if I'm to do it.

Plaidmoon
« Last Edit: December 07, 2009, 08:48:21 PM by Plaidmoon2 »

Offline YY

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #194 on: December 07, 2009, 08:35:42 PM »
The Bariloche leg, I believe, took place on 3 Dec. That means that Asuncion, if it takes place today, cannot be Leg 4. If confirmed, it most likely would be the fifth leg. Speculation: fourth leg in Buenos Aires then?

Agreeing with DrRox on the flight Amy was on. If she was in the Asuncion airport headed to Uruguay seven hours ago (it is now 2.30pm in Asuncion), the flight she was taking was probably PU 706 to Montevideo, departing at 9.20am. Asuncion Intl only has one concourse for arriving and departing flights, so it is entirely possible that the crew was waiting for arrivals while Amy was leaving.

5 legs in South America? They must be making up for not going there in a while...
It looks like we won't be seeing much of Europe and/or Asia this season. Africa/Australia ftw!

What about a TBC leg inlcuding Bariloche and Buenos Aires with a 36 hour pitstop before Paraguay?  Just an idea?!

ETA: I can't remember, where did the Buenos Aires info come from?

I took a look at flights from Bariloche to Asuncion (on Dec 21st, but I think it would be similar to today) and it looks like there is one short and reasonable option daily. There's a flight that leaves at 2:25 PM and arrives at 9:35 PM after stops in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, Uruguay. Other options take 17 to 22 hours. If the leg in Bariloche ended too late for Phil to catch the 2:25 PM flight, I think they would hold Phil for the flight the next afternoon rather than have him fly for almost 24 hours (especially if the teams can catch the 8 hour flight). That would force them to hold the team for the afternoon after that. That would mean a nearly 48 hour pit stop.

It might be possible that they had a leg in Buenos Aires, but they would still have the issue of only a couple of flights a day out of Bariloche and having a lengthy pit stop to let Phil get there in advance of the teams. Unless we get reports of teams moving through Buenos Aires doing tasks, I'd be inclined to think they were seen at the airport waiting for connecting flights.

I'm thinking back to the list of purported leg locations in the removed Wikipedia article for TAR 16. It's still there if you look in the history of revisions:


    * Leg 1 United States → Chile

    * Leg 2 Chile

    * Leg 3 Chile → Paraguay

    * Leg 4 Paraguay → South Africa

    * Leg 5 South Africa → Angola

    * Leg 6 Angola → Spain

    * Leg 7 Spain  → Portugal

    * Leg 8 Portugal

    * Leg 9 Portugal → Belarus

    * Leg 10 Belarus  → Sri Lanka

    * Leg 11 Sri Lanka  → People's Republic of China

    * Leg 12 People's Republic of China  → Canada  → United States

I discounted it when I first saw it because I thought it was unlikely they would go to Sri Lanka due to the terrorism issues with the Tamil rebels. However, if you grant that Bariloche is almost in Chile and that they've apparently gone to Paraguay, I'm a little more intrigued. If they go to South Africa next, then I'll really be intrigued. I'd be interested in asking Wikipedia user Masem where he got this list of countries from, but it'll have to wait until later if I'm to do it.

Plaidmoon


The reason I'm personally so leery of truly investing belief in much on Wikipedia is because it is user edited. Anyone can post anything in there and it doesnt' necessarily make it so.


Offline Neobie

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #195 on: December 07, 2009, 08:39:14 PM »
* Leg 1 United States → Chile
* Leg 2 Chile
* Leg 3 Chile → Paraguay
* Leg 4 Paraguay → South Africa
* Leg 5 South Africa → Angola
* Leg 6 Angola → Spain
* Leg 7 Spain  → Portugal
* Leg 8 Portugal
* Leg 9 Portugal → Belarus
* Leg 10 Belarus  → Sri Lanka
* Leg 11 Sri Lanka  → People's Republic of China
* Leg 12 People's Republic of China  → Canada  → United States

I really hate to be mean, but...



The timeline suggests that even if the Paraguay sightings are legit, there would have to be a leg between Bariloche and Asuncion. Masem's probably just pulling something out of thin air.

Offline ZBC Company

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #196 on: December 07, 2009, 08:41:45 PM »
then wiki say germany

Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #197 on: December 07, 2009, 08:52:17 PM »
* Leg 1 United States → Chile
* Leg 2 Chile
* Leg 3 Chile → Paraguay
* Leg 4 Paraguay → South Africa
* Leg 5 South Africa → Angola
* Leg 6 Angola → Spain
* Leg 7 Spain  → Portugal
* Leg 8 Portugal
* Leg 9 Portugal → Belarus
* Leg 10 Belarus  → Sri Lanka
* Leg 11 Sri Lanka  → People's Republic of China
* Leg 12 People's Republic of China  → Canada  → United States

I really hate to be mean, but...



The timeline suggests that even if the Paraguay sightings are legit, there would have to be a leg between Bariloche and Asuncion. Masem's probably just pulling something out of thin air.

Furthermore, WHERE'S THE LEG FOR BARILOCHE?

Offline redwings8831

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #198 on: December 07, 2009, 08:58:21 PM »
then wiki say germany

Don't trust wiki. I can go on there right now and can make up whatever I want to.

Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #199 on: December 07, 2009, 09:05:21 PM »
* Leg 1 United States → Chile
* Leg 2 Chile
* Leg 3 Chile → Paraguay
* Leg 4 Paraguay → South Africa
* Leg 5 South Africa → Angola
* Leg 6 Angola → Spain
* Leg 7 Spain  → Portugal
* Leg 8 Portugal
* Leg 9 Portugal → Belarus
* Leg 10 Belarus  → Sri Lanka
* Leg 11 Sri Lanka  → People's Republic of China
* Leg 12 People's Republic of China  → Canada  → United States

I really hate to be mean, but...



The timeline suggests that even if the Paraguay sightings are legit, there would have to be a leg between Bariloche and Asuncion. Masem's probably just pulling something out of thin air.

OK, I should have looked at the timeline more closely. Even if they had a 48 hour pit stop in Bariloche, there is still an unaccounted for day. Perhaps they did have a leg in Buenos Aires after all, which would cast the itinerary in further doubt. I wasn't buying into the itinerary too much at this point. I was just throwing it out here so that it didn't get forgotten and to stir some thinking. If the legs are in South Africa and Angola, then I think it deserves some further investigation.

Plaidmoon