The Amazing Race > The Amazing Race Discussion
Chances Of...
Mandoli:
Really bored, so I'll start a little discussion before the season begins.
Knowing that a girl/girl team can land in the final three teams, what are the chances of them actually winning their season? All of the teams that have won are either guy/guy or guy/girl. And I believe that the All-Star season had two girl/girl teams in the final three. So it's possible, but it's never happened.
But is a girl/girl team ever going to win the race? And if so, will it be done before CBS stops making seasons?
Slowhatch:
:party: Congrats on the big 1K! :congrats:
It's an interesting topic because it's hard to apply probability to the race; as Marc/Rovilson pointed out, no matter how good you are, one bad taxi driver and your team is history. All of us can think of at least one good team that was eliminated early, and conversely one mediocre team that went to the final 3 (or even won the race). As for your particular point, I think the BQs were the strongest F/F team ever fielded; I don't hold much hope this season for the Belles and I think the Divorcees will make the top half--but maybe not the final 3.
TARAsia Fan:
It's already happened with Zabrina and Joe Jer in the Amazing Race Asia. They were the first all-female team to win any edition of the race so it is possible.
For the US version, the Beauty Queens had the best shot and almost won All-Stars. I do think it's possible. It will have to take some effort, but I do think if the race casts a strong all-female team (and I don't mean physically) like the BQ's, I think it will happen.
The Southern Belles don't look like that team, but you never know.
apskip:
I think that taking a look at probabilities is instructive. I believe that teams with two females are at a disadvantage compared to both straight male/male teams and to male/female teams. I will assign an arbitrary factor to incorporate what the history of the Amazing Race tells us(but the not 0% that actual statistics would use). Let's assign a probability of them as 50% less than either of the other 2 types. So in AR13 by applying that information mathematically to a 11 team race, we have this for probabilities of winning:
each of two M/M team has a 10% chance of winning
each of seven M/F team has a 10% chance of winning
each of two F/F team has a 5% chance of winning
That feels about right to meas it says that an Amazing Race with two F/F in is has a 10% chance of F/F victory. None has occurred in 12 prior races.
In Amazing Race Asia 3, the statistics will be somewhat different because F/F teams have done much better there for whatever reason. I would say the F/F teams have a probability of only 20% less than either of the other 2 types of winning ARA3 (possibly beacuse their M/M teams are traditionally weaker than those who ran the early U.S. Amazing Races as the casting decisions were made to give the ARA F/F teams a higher chance of succeeding). So by applying that information to a 10 team race, we have this for probabilties of winning:
each of three M/M has a 10.6% chance of winning
each of four M/F teams has a 10.6 % chance of winning
each of three F/F teams has a 8.5% chance of winning
This indicates that an Amazing Race Asia with three F/F teams in it (traditionally there are more than for a regular Amazing Race) has a 25% chance of a F/F victory. One out of two have happened that way.
The mathematics indicated here are not complex. If you have a different set of assumptions on probabilities for each class of team, then you can run an alternative analysis and come to different conclusions.
sunnyca:
ok, this may fall under the category of "statistics abuse" :whips : (not quite the jumpy i was looking for, but i like this one!!)
but if a F/F team has only a 50% chance of winning as any other combo, then each F only brings to the table a 0.25 chance - so by extension, the male in a M/F team brings the other 0.75? That seems too high, unless somehow the F/F team is LESS than the sum of its parts, which seems unlikely? So we must assign them a higher chance. Maybe rather than assigning this in a arbitrary way, we can assign each of the 28 F/F teams (yes, i counted! in case you want to know, here's the breakdown (TAR1 : 3, 2:3, 3:2, 4:2, 5:3, 6;2,7:2, 9:3,10:3, 11:2, 12:3) an "ability" value based on their finishing position, do the same for the other types, normalize to the winning probability of the M/F teams (6/11), and then..oooh oooh my head hurts already!! someone else needs to do this calculation.. help! :'(
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