Author Topic: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation  (Read 540821 times)

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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #225 on: July 06, 2008, 11:55:14 AM »
ARA3 Timeline

I was surprised to discover that the full timeline has not been updated since June 2 even though legs of it have been updated. There are a number of assumptions to get me from that one to the updated version below:

1. I switched the order of Beijing and Bangkok to conform to what others have believed and due to the interplay of a May 18 Allan Wu Singapore airport sighting with the Chiang Mai leg. There isn't time to fit Bangkok - Beijing -  Chiang Mai via Bangkok into the schedule.
2. The Macau leg is very logical. Indeed, I speculated that it was one of about 10 highest probability places to follow Hong Kong.
3. The Singapore airport sighting of Allan Wu on June 1 does not appear to me to involve a leg there. I am sticking with it as a transit point between Hong Kong airport(following Macau leg) and Cochin.
4. I do not agree with sending teams off to Taiwan although the jury is not out on that yet. I have kept Hanoi as the next leg after Hue in this timeline.

May 19 Beijing - start of ARA3; pitstop

May 20 leg 2 begins; teams spotted in Beijing airport before 935am and then mid afternoon at Khao San Road in Bangkok

PEK BKK TG675 0830 1215  connecting in Bangkok to TG116 BKK CNX 1715 1825

May 21 Bankgkok tasks and pitstop

May 22 leg 3 begins; logical flights BKK CNX are:

TG102 0755 0855
TG104 1030 1140
TG616 1220 1330
TG110 1240 1350

tasks in Chiang Mai region; pitstop

May 23 leg 4 begins; CNX BKK TG103 0945 1055 connecting Bangkok to Bkk SGN AF164 1325 1450
tasks in Saigon(Ho Chi Minh City)

May 24 tasks; Saigon area extended pitstop begins

May 25 pitstop continued until before 11pm;leg 5 begins; train leaves Saigon 2300 arrives Hue 1616+1 or plane flies next morning (26th) Vietnam Airlines250  0700 0820 SGN HUI

May 26 train arrives Hue 1616 (mid afternoon) or plane in morning;
tasks in Hue area including Imperial City completed before midnight; pitstop starts

May 27 begin leg 6 Hue to Hanoi;
Vietnam Airlines 244               1210 1320
tasks; begin pitstop

May 28 begin leg 7 Hanoi to Hong Kong
Vietnam Airways 790 HAN HKG 1105 1355
Vietnam Airways 792 HAN HKG 1910 2000
tasks in Hong Kong

May 29 complete tasks in Hong Kong with TBC; begin leg 8 in Macau after taking hydrofoil in under 1 hour

May 30 Macau tasks; pitstop

May 31 begin leg 9; return to Hong Kong Airport by hydrooil; fly through Singapore airport to Cochin
most probable flights are CX735 1415 1800 or CX711 1615 2000
SilkAir468   SIN COK 2155 2350
« Last Edit: July 07, 2008, 07:09:02 AM by apskip »

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #226 on: July 06, 2008, 12:00:07 PM »
apskip...our sighting in Singapore of the team on the way to Cochin is on May 31st, I believe...

and the Allen Wu sighting was on 5/30...

and you might want to comment on the NEW evidence for Saigon to switch to between Bangkok and Chiang Mai now? (which I find strange...)

update is here:
http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,15379.msg305005.html#msg305005
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 12:07:31 PM by georgiapeach »
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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #227 on: July 06, 2008, 05:38:59 PM »
Peach, this was delayed 6 hours by my having thought I had posted it without actually totally completing that post.

Hue to Hanoi to Taipei
HUI HAN Vietnam Airlines VN244 1210 1320
HAN TPE VN924 1700 2100

There are many earlier departures from Hue to Hanoi, but with the earliest arrival TPE possible only with a 4 hour layover it makes no sense to show flights that just cause a longer layover.

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #228 on: July 07, 2008, 07:11:23 AM »
Peach:

I discovered a one day error in the timing of departure from Macao. With a normal pitstop (which I intended), flights to Singapore would be on May 31. If there was another extended pitstop, then on June 1. I have corrected my Timeline to show May 31 as I believe that a normal pitstop is more logical.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2008, 11:04:13 AM by apskip »

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #229 on: July 07, 2008, 08:08:14 AM »
apskip, we know Geoff and Trish were spotted in Singapore on the way to Cochin on May 31, so you are correct! Thanks!
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #230 on: July 18, 2008, 09:22:06 AM »
More info about our Singapore sighting of Geoff and Trish on the way to Cochin:

Mrs Shrek brought us the info about the original blog post HERE.

The EXIF data from the photo suggested that the date was 5/31.

I wrote to Aravind about his blog shortly after that, and he has just returned from vacation and has very kindly has answered all of my (and others) questions about time and date and flight info in a new BLOG UPDATE.

In summary, Aravind says that they saw the teams on June 1, not 5/31 as we suspected.

The flight was Cathay Pacific # CX739 which departed HK approx 11:20 AM on June 1.

In Singapore, our racers booked the next Air India flight from Singapore to Cochin, which was scheduled to depart in approx 3 hours from either Terminal 2 or 3.

Many many thanks to Aravind for taking the time to help us out!  :yourock: :thankyou:

I am double checking the dates just to be sure.... :angel:  (see below)

« Last Edit: July 18, 2008, 10:15:38 AM by georgiapeach »
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #231 on: July 18, 2008, 10:06:57 AM »
Checking airline data:

Cathay Pacific's flight 739 is listed as having an arrival time of 15:05 into Singapore.

When I do a search for Sunday flights (ie June 1) I get this info which does NOT correspond with "leaving 3 hours later"...

Air India Singapore--Cochin is


But checking Sat flights (ie May 31) I found this which does correlate:



Note the arrival time of one day later in Cochin, as well.

Based on the EXIF data saying 5/31, and Aravind's info of the teams leaving 3 hours later with no flights showing for me with the later times on Sundays (note that I am doing a future search and not a search of the actual date since Airwise is down), I believe that the date may well have been May 31 and not June 1, so will attempt to confirm that w/ Aravind.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2008, 10:14:50 AM by georgiapeach »
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #232 on: July 18, 2008, 11:47:43 AM »
Okay, we are back to JUNE 1 as being correct!

Aravind replied:

Quote
The current info I posted was obtained from my boarding ticket which said Jun 1. So it is highly likely that it is correct. May be I heard wrong and it wasn’t 3 hours at all (although I am pretty sure it was).

 

I don’t have my itinerary with me anymore so I cannot confirm for sure. So it is possible that it was indeed the 31st of May! But again Air India could be showing some wrong data.

 

Btw, I think the camera timings are a bit off (they get the date correct though – I think). In fact, I am not even sure if the time is accurate for any timezone. So I wouldn’t give that too much weightage.

 

Shall let you know if I get anything more.

 

Best,

--Aravind.

Since I can't dispute the boarding ticket info, I double checked with Air India. The flight listed as AI 7408 is actually a code share w/ Singapore Airlines and upon checking there that flight was available on June 1 (went to 6 days a week on June 22  :lol:).

But I have no idea on getting them onward to Cochin if they go via Delhi first so will need apskip's help. Or maybe there is another way entirely?

But anyway, June 1 it is, which means that Macau must be an extended pitstop.

It also means that maybe Allen Wu could have possibly had time to fit in that family visit where he was seen with his family on 5/30.
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #233 on: July 18, 2008, 02:10:56 PM »
Hmmm...apskip has also pointed out to me that a leg in Singapore is possible here, not just an extended pitstop in Macau.

If they dep early AM  from Macau on the 31st then guess they could have time to arr Singapore, do tasks there, pitstop there night of May 31 and leave there June 1 for India.

So guess either is possible!

Thanks apskip!


oopsie--forgot they were on the HK to Singapore flight too!
« Last Edit: July 18, 2008, 06:58:00 PM by georgiapeach »
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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #234 on: July 18, 2008, 02:49:19 PM »
Referring back to my post  on July 6, the last date on this Timeline specified SilkAir468 (Singapore Air codeshares it) from Singapore to Cochin. It had a later departure and arrival there, but the one currently showing is SIN COK 2020 2215. That could fit with the eyewitness information only if SilkAir did not open its ticket counter until about 1730 (which is logical since the first flight I can find in a late afternoon time frame was at 1900), then the remaining ARA3 teams could have gone to the Air India ticket counter and purchased a SilkAir or Singapore Air ticket there.

Now, with an expected May 31 morning departure from Macau (much more probable to me than another extended pitstop soon after one I have projected in Vietnam), the obvious solution to the time gap is an actual leg in Singapore. There is time between a noonish arrival and the following day evening departure to Cochin for such a leg. I have heard the objection that it would be difficult to have a leg without the ARA fans in Singapore hearing about it, but there are occasions when the producers of ARA3 achieve secrecy (although it appears that it is not often).

The fact is that there needs to be 11 to 13 legs in ARA3. We have only identified 10 through Cochin if Singapore is the 9th leg. If Singapore is not the 9th leg, then what could the two to four legs after Cochin be and why haven't we heard any tidbits about them?


Offline Mrs Shrek

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #235 on: July 18, 2008, 05:40:50 PM »
Yay Peach! Thanks for following that up for me :hearts:


I wrote to Aravind about his blog shortly after that, and he has just returned from vacation and has very kindly has answered all of my (and others) questions about time and date and flight info in a new BLOG UPDATE.

Offline Mrs Shrek

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #236 on: July 18, 2008, 05:54:14 PM »
Still trying to straighten this out in my head, but if contestants were seen flying from HK to Singapore, and then flying straight on to India about 3 hours later, then they couldn't have had time to fit in a leg in Singapore. :duno:
Although Allen Wu could still have done his pit stop duties in HK/Macau, and then flown home for the suspected brief visit with his family, before continuing on to India.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #237 on: July 18, 2008, 06:56:43 PM »
You are so right Mrs Shrek! I totally forgot they were on the HK-Singapore flight with them first!  :groan:

Okay ..back to an extended pitstop in Macau then?
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Offline Mrs Shrek

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #238 on: July 18, 2008, 08:26:09 PM »
Maybe. But with both TAR and TARA squashing the same number of legs into a much tighter time frame of around 3 weeks filming, as opposed to 4, I guess that extended pit stops might be reduced in number.

Askip: Could you point me in the direction where I could find your latest timeline please?
Is it possible that an extra (unknown) leg could be squeezed instead of one of the speculated extended pitstops, or is it just too tight?

The more I look at puddin's summary on page 1, the more I question the Saigon sighting as part of TARA3. It just seems too tight, and too back and forth between Thailand and Vietnam. It would mean consecutively travelling to a different country every single day between the 19th and 22nd, which seems just a bit ott, even for TAR.

Beijing  May 18th or 19th
Bangkok Thailand May 20th
Saigon, Vietnam May 21st
Chiang Mai, Thailand May 22nd
Hue, Vietnam May 25th
Hong Kong evidence  May 29th
Macau - May 31st
Cochin, India   (via Singapore) June 1st

But if we drop Saigon, then we need to squeeze in another leg somewhere else along the way. If the Racers spotted in Chiang Mai were on their way out of the country on the 22nd, I guess there is really only room for one leg before Hue (assuming 2 days per leg), and then another one before HK - [speculation - maybe Taiwan???]

When was filming believed to be completed? If there are only a couple legs after India, then the likely hood of them having headed too far out of Asia is low.

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #239 on: July 18, 2008, 08:46:09 PM »
I agree totally about Saigon but was able to (on paper) make it work here:
http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,15379.msg305005.html#msg305005

Now moving on back to Saigon:

The dates are getting confusing.  :'(

I agree!

Here's where we will have to a little changing around in our speculated times, but it is very nice to get confirmation of the dates!

I must admit though that I don't understand why they would do a leg in Saigon and then go to Chiang Mai and then return to Hue? That seems a little funny routing to me. I wonder if Saigon will actually turn out to be our race after all? But in any case, here's how I see that possibly working....


Leg 1: starts in Beijing on May 19 with teams spotted leaving Beijing at the airport on May 20; on their way to:

Leg 2: teams arrive in Bangkok on May 20 and are seen eating bugs in Khao San Road, pitstop night of 5/20 to departure 5/21 (cannot rule out an extended pitstop here until 5/22)

Leg 3?: unknown location becomes Saigon 5/21-5/22 vs extended pitstop in Bangkok until 5/22

Leg ?:  Chiang Mai 5/22-5/23 tasks to include something extreme add a possible extended Pitstop here?

Leg?: Saigon 5/23 to 5/24 (possible +1 due to travel or extended pitstop)

Leg ?: Hue 5/24 to 5/25 or 5/25 to 5/26

Leg?: unknown 5/26-27 (possibly Taiwan here??)

Leg?: Hong Kong 5/28 to 5/29 (Pitstop 5/29 PM) with departure 5/30 to Macau.

Leg?: Macau 5/30 to AM 5/31 ? extended pitstop

Leg?: departure Macau to Cochin, India via Singapore AM 5/31 change to 6/1


So I do think on paper this can work but others will need to say if the airline routing is possible to confirm this. I just find the routing to be strange. :lol:













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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #240 on: July 19, 2008, 11:00:40 AM »
Mrs. Shrek, as you can see with puddin showing one version, Peach another, and me a third that there is not the usual concensus on the ARA3 timeline. I have seen nothing serious enough to change my own timeline, so I am reproducing my July 7 version here with very minor changes:

There are a number of assumptions to get me from that one to the updated version below:

1. I switched the order of Beijing and Bangkok to conform to what others have believed and due to the interplay of a May 18 Allan Wu Singapore airport sighting with the Chiang Mai leg. There isn't time to fit Bangkok - Beijing -  Chiang Mai via Bangkok into the schedule.
2. The Macau leg is very logical. Indeed, I speculated that it was one of about 10 highest probability places to follow Hong Kong.
3. I do not agree with sending teams off to Taiwan although the jury is not out on that yet. I have kept Hanoi as the next leg after Hue in this timeline.

May 19 Beijing - start of ARA3; pitstop

May 20 leg 2 begins; teams spotted in Beijing airport before 935am and then mid afternoon at Khao San Road in Bangkok

PEK BKK TG675 0830 1215  connecting in Bangkok to TG116 BKK CNX 1715 1825

May 21 Bankgkok tasks and pitstop

May 22 leg 3 begins; logical flights BKK CNX are:

TG102 0755 0855
TG104 1030 1140
TG616 1220 1330
TG110 1240 1350

tasks in Chiang Mai region; pitstop

May 23 leg 4 begins; CNX BKK TG103 0945 1055 connecting Bangkok to Bkk SGN AF164 1325 1450
tasks in Saigon(Ho Chi Minh City)

May 24 tasks; Saigon area extended pitstop begins

May 25 pitstop continued until before 11pm;leg 5 begins; train leaves Saigon 2300 arrives Hue 1616+1 or plane flies next morning (26th) Vietnam Airlines250  0700 0820 SGN HUI

May 26 train arrives Hue 1616 (mid afternoon) or plane in morning;
tasks in Hue area including Imperial City completed before midnight; pitstop starts

May 27 begin leg 6 Hue to Hanoi;
Vietnam Airlines 244               1210 1320
tasks; begin pitstop

May 28 begin leg 7 Hanoi to Hong Kong
Vietnam Airways 790 HAN HKG 1105 1355
Vietnam Airways 792 HAN HKG 1910 2000
tasks in Hong Kong

May 29 complete tasks in Hong Kong with TBC; begin leg 8 in Macau after taking hydrofoil in under 1 hour

May 30 Macau tasks; pitstop

May 31 begin leg 9; return to Hong Kong Airport by hydrofoil; fly to Singapore. most probable flights are CX717 0855 1230 or SQ857 1030 1410 or CX739 1120 1505
tasks in Singapore area, then start pitstop

June 1 begin leg 10
SilkAir468   SIN COK 0820 2015

You should believe whichever version you find to have the best thought process behind it.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #241 on: July 19, 2008, 03:06:57 PM »
Apskip, we had an update for the Saigon sighting back here:

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,15379.msg305001.html#msg305001

which changed the Saigon date to Wed the 21st not the 24th anymore.

We have no other evidence placing them in Saigon on any other different day and several of us question this being our race at all. But my post above is trying to see how we could maybe change the dates to make Saigon work at all considering the date change.

Also HUE team sightings were confirmed for May 25, not starting on the 26.

And as far as I know, we have nothing concrete for Hanoi at all, do we? I think that is speculation as well.

It is getting hard to keep up with all the date changes!

And Taiwan IS speculation, but I was given a hint so it bears looking at closely, I think.
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Offline Mrs Shrek

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #242 on: July 19, 2008, 09:15:56 PM »
Thanks Askip for giving me your version of the timeline :tup:

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #243 on: July 19, 2008, 10:40:07 PM »
Peach, if JonLover's evidence is believed, then you are correct that the race must finish Bangkok on May 21 and arrive Saigon before 9pm. With the way pitstops are done, that means that teams would have from the afternoon through that evening before a 12 hour pitstop begins. If the pitstop begins in the morning of the 21st, then teams will not reach Saigon in time to be sighted at the Q Bar. That is a serious compression of tasks in Bangkok, which to  me makes it improbable. There are many flight Bangkok to Saigon. The first is at 0900 and the last is TG686 1815 1945.

If Saigon is completed the evening and a pitstop starts on the 22nd, then teams will not reach Chiang Mai until the late afternoon of May 23. Again, the same issue of compressed tasks arises, as you would ideally want teams to be leaving Chiang Mai on the morning of the 24th. I have to say that the pitstop would not happen until the late afternoon or evening or the 24th.  That means departure from Chiang Mai on the 25th.

From Chiang Mai on either the 24th or 25th we have TG125 0700 0800 CNX BKK connecting to VietAir850 1410 1540 BKK SGN which connects to  VietAir256  1800 1950 SGN HUI if going to Hue first. If my speculation on Hanoi is correct and if Hanoi was before Hue, then the direct flight BKK HAN VietAir830 1220 1410 would replace the previous 2 flights. Given the earlier arrival time, Hanoi would make more sense as teams could start tasks that afternoon.

On May 26( or 27) from Hue to Hanoi it is VietAir240 0800 0910. For Hanoi to Hue it's either VietAir241 0600 0710 or VietAir 245 1010 1120.

The flight options from both Hue and from Hanoi to Hong Kong are worth a look. From Hanoi it's VietAir790 1105 1355. From Hue, it's VietAir240 0800 0910 HUI HAN, then a connection from Hanoi to the prior flight VietAir790 1105 1355.

The amount of backtracking involved is incredible and makes no sense. You have backtracking through Bankok to Chiang Mai and then through Bangkok again (3rd time) to get to Saigon. Anything to Hue last will backtrack throgh Hanoi to get to HongKong.

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #244 on: July 20, 2008, 06:53:01 AM »
With further thinking about what might have happened on the ARA3 route, I come to the conclusion that Chiang Mai not being a leg would make the route a whole lot more logical. It is the bactrack to Chiang Mai that is the primary factor in an illogical route. What if the reports from Chiang Mai were just a local race as has been speculated?

Then the route would go Beijing Bangkok Saigon Hue Hanoi maybe-somewhere-else-including-Taiwan Hong Kong Macau Singapore Cochin.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2008, 11:36:37 AM by apskip »


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #245 on: July 20, 2008, 07:58:09 AM »
I have spoken w/ the original blogger and every detail seems consistent w/ our race.

I confirmed that the local race on at about the same time was not filmed and did not involve airports.

I was told by someone very reliable on site that the race did come thru Chiang Mai and where one of the tasks was to be.

IMO, this is one of the best confirmed legs we have. It is definitely NOT a local race.

We also know that the teams were seen in the Chiang Mai airport on MAY 22, not the 23rd or 24th.

On the other hand, I am not yet convinced of Saigon... the only thing that is puzzling are the reports of a camera crew with the people seen. But this could still be something else, I think--we just don't have enough to be really sure.

Hanoi certainly fits geographically but we need some other confirmation--a sighting or something before we can be sure.

Singapore can only be transit since the teams flew HK to Singapore with our blogger.

We  need some new clues!  :wall:

Speculation:

If we dump Saigon and {insert somewhere else of your choice}, does the route get any better?  ???
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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #246 on: July 20, 2008, 11:35:41 AM »
Peach asked
Quote
If we dump Saigon and {insert somewhere else of your choice}, does the route get any better?

My answer is that it does not get better. The backtracking to Chiang Mai is not addressed, nor is the potential backtracking between Hue and Hanoi. I would summarize by saying that dropping Saigon is neutral unless there is a time crunch, which in my judgement there is not. I see no reason to drop Saigon but plenty to drop Chiang Mai, which is the one decision which would significantly imrove the route.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #247 on: July 20, 2008, 11:51:01 AM »
Too bad then that we can't drop Chiang Mai! :lol:
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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #248 on: July 20, 2008, 12:30:41 PM »
Peach:

I understand that the individual who saw the teams flew with them. Why does that mean that no leg in Singapore is possible? What do teams do for over 24 hours after arrival in Singapore morning of May 31 until departure for Cochin evening of June 1?

If I accept your information as absolutely correct, then the only rational solution is flying somewhere from Singapore on May 31 and flying back on June 1 on the way to Cochin. There are many such places and I intend to develop that list using the criteria of flights under 2 hours as the limit.

I'll be back!

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation (spoiler summary page 1)
« Reply #249 on: July 20, 2008, 01:40:14 PM »
we first thought they flew HK --Singapore on the 31st but Aravind (blogger) said no it was on the 1st.

They did not have 24 hours in Singapore

They left HK on the 1st and arr Singapore on the first. The SAME DAY!  We even have the Cathay Pacific flight # that they flew...double check that update okay?
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