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Offline kcat444

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Lex smart or not?
« on: March 18, 2004, 12:54:07 PM »
At first, I thought Lex was playing smart.  Now I'm not so sure.  I think Lex should have alligned himself with Colby or Ethan to take to the merge.  If they had won immunity, then they would take Lex with them down the road to the final four.  He could ride on their coattails much like Tina did with Colby.  Once the merge had happened, the first to go would have been Colby or Ethan the first time they lost.  Now Lex has left himself as a target since he is the strongest (besides Boston Rob or Alicia).  

What do you think?

Offline WENDY

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2004, 01:44:26 PM »
Lex has been a strong strategic player every time he has been on Survivor. I think he just puts too much thought into the "strategy" process, and that is what marked him for last time too.....
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Offline puddin

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2004, 06:47:10 PM »
 ;D ;D ;D LMAO!!

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Offline MaiLex

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2004, 09:16:19 PM »
First off, forgive me for my English. It was terrible but I wanted to speak up my thoughts so much. Hope you will understand my points. I really do!

They say Lex was stupid by voting Colby out last week but some of them say differently though, “How smart, Lex!!!” I was blinded and pretty disappointed too. I and my little sister had a difficult time since she was rooting for Colby and myself rooting for Lex. I wasn’t known or sure what was in Lex’s mind but the day after and then I realized that Lex had the best move ever! I’ll bet no one in that game could ever think about Lex team up with Rob Mariano or Rupert. If Lex already had in his mind about what I just thought, I guess he’ll be the first to do it (or am I missing something?)

These are what I just thought about Lex’s decision:-

Previously, Lex had 2 choices:-
1)   Go to The Merge with ‘5 stars rating’ player such Rich, Colby and Kathy
2)   Go to The Merge with ‘less than 3 stars rating’ player such Jerri, Shii Ann and Ethan (I’m not underestimate but purposely to classify players involved, sorry)

These are several scenarios that could happen after The Merge:-
1)   If Lex goes to The Merge with the ‘5 stars rating’ players:-
a)   Mogo2 = 4, Chapera = 6 – (Lex, Rich, Colby and Kathy (assume Shii Ann will get her boot this upcoming Thursday). Good – Lex could ‘hide’ behind Rich, Colby and probably Kathy’s back because they are such a great in the game and Chapera is looking forward to pagong Mogo2. Then, Lex could try other plan though. Not good – Lex seems to be placed himself in the Final 8 or 3rd after Rich and Colby get their boots. It’s like ready to be chopped! Lex don’t want this to be happened – predicted 30% opportunity to go to the Final 4 (Assume Rob M., Amber, Tom, Rupert, Jenna Lewis and Alicia = 50% - 100%, Kathy = 40%, Lex and Colby = 20% - 30% and Rich = 10%)
b)   Mogo2 = 5, Chapera = 5 – (Lex, Rich, Colby, Kathy and Shii Ann). Good – Lex probably could place himself in the Final 3 with Colby and Kathy. Lex could outlast Rich, Shii Ann and Kathy in any ICs and if he’s playing his card right – predicted 80% opportunity to go to the Final 4 (Assume Colby = 100%, Kathy = 90%, Lex = 80%, Shii Ann = 70% and Rich = 60%). Not good – Lex would face difficulties of planning his game because so many conflicts or when everybody is become greedier. Rich with his plan, Colby with his, Kathy and Shii Ann too – predicted 50% opportunity to go to the Final 4 (Assume all Mogo2 = 50%-50%)

2)   If Lex goes to The Merge with the ‘less than 3 stars’ rating players:-
a)   Mogo2 = 4, Chapera = 6 – (Lex, Ethan, Shii Ann and Kathy (assume Jerri will get her boot this Thursday). Not good – Lex could be the first target after The Merge because he’s such a threat and a great schemer too. Mogo2 will fall – predicted 10% opportunity to go to the Final 4 (Assume Rob Mariano, Amber, Tom, Rupert, Jenna Lewis and Alicia = 50% - 100%, Kathy = 40%, Shii Ann = 30%, Ethan = 20% dan Lex = 10%)
b)   Mogo2 = 5, Chapera = 5 – (Lex, Ethan, Shii Ann, Kathy and Jerri). Not good – Still, Lex is framed as ‘dangerous’ and a schemer and would be the first to be voted out from Mogo2. Mogo2 will fall – predicted opportunity 10% to go to the Final 4 (Assume Rob Mariano, Amber, Tom, Rupert, Jenna Lewis and Alicia = 50% - 100%, Kathy = 40%, Shii Ann = 30%, Ethan = 20% and Lex = 10%)

I guess I shouldn’t throw away my precious time just to speculate about Mogo2’s fall. We all knew about it. I just want to tell the good ones that have waited for Lex.

It doesn’t really matter if Mogo2 goes to The Merge with 4 or 5 players. I still believe Lex could strategize better, more committed and more focus without plots and such from Rich and Colby (probably Kathy too). The absence of Rich and Colby (or other great player such Kathy) already cut down / reduce the risks of he being the victim especially by Rich (because Lex was targeted by Rich to be the first off before Colby). Picture this - when Rich, Colby and Kathy (+ Shii Ann, Jerri or Ethan) started plotting, backstabbing, form a new strange alliance or something like that (because nobody could trust anybody). So, I really think the other smart move for Lex is to get rid Kathy out ASAP! Kathy such a snake after all. She is prepared to jump ship if Mogo2 fall again in the next IC. Kathy would do it to save her own skin. Now imagine Lex’s position when Rich, Colby and Kathy were already booted out. He’s the winner! Yup! He’s like the King Shepherd who is prepared to bump off his sheep or leave it to anyone! Why? Now that Mogo2 has Lex, Jerri, Shii Ann and Ethan! Jerri, Shii Ann and Ethan are in Lex’s under control! Yes, probably Shii Ann would do something stupid but as long as Lex concerned about her opinions and treated her right, I think she’s OK with Lex. If everything goes smoothly, (Mogo2 goes to The Merge with majority or even numbers with Chapera), Lex’s future in this game is good indeed! If majority, Lex could expel Rob M., Tom, Rupert and Ethan easily. If even, Lex still has his own right to get to the Final 4.

Unfortunately, I must assume Mogo2 will go to The Merge with minority (I hope Kathy will get her boot this week. Then all my dreams will come true. Oh!). As I said before, Lex could prepare to bump off his sheep to anyone! Why? He must aware about Mogo2’s critical position. Kudos Lex, he could bring and promise something to any stronger alliance of Chapera that probably:-
1)   Rob M., Amber and Tom = RAT
2)   Rupert and Jenna Lewis (+ Alicia?) = RAJ
   
   How will it works?
1)   Rob M., Amber and Tom – Lex could offer himself to the alliance (with or without his original tribe members’ confirmation or agreement), giving RAT a positive or logical reason i.e. to strengthen the RAT alliance and cheat, “there is possibility of Jenna Lewis, Rupert and Alicia have something going on between them,” or open the door by convincing Amber to reunite with Jerri. Lex could promise to exploit his ‘sheep’ for extra votes (Jerri, Shii Ann and Ethan) for RAT alliance in order to get rid Rupert, Jenna Lewis and Alicia (because RAT = 3, RAJ = 3). And then what? At some point when RAT + Lex have the advantage, Lex will let the RAT alliance especially Rob M. to give his ‘kick’ to Ethan. Together, they will vote out Shii Ann and Jerri (assume Shii Ann and Jerri had some problems). Probably they will do it alternately, to prevent any suspicious reaction among them (Rupert = C, Ethan = M, Alicia = C, Jerri = M, Jenna Lewis = C and Shii Ann = M). But what promises without any favor or good return? Well, nothing is free, right? Lex SHOULD HAVE asking the RAT alliance for his ticket to the Final 4 but I’m pretty sure, Lex will not let anyone to stop him until he gets to the final 2! I think this might be the reason why some columnist have thoughts that Lex could be one of the Finals with Rob M., Amber and Tom, as per TheSurvivorSportsGuy (Survivor Central)
2)   Jenna Lewis and Rupert (+ Alicia?) – This week, Rob M. and Rupert will face off. Wow! Good Kudos for Lex in the future! By applying the same strategy above-mentioned, Lex could persuade Rupert, Jenna Lewis and probably Alicia too (because Alicia seemed like had no chemistry related to Rob M.) in order to get rid Rob M., Amber and Tom. When RAJ + Lex had any kind of advantage, again – Lex together with RAJ alliance will vote out Ethan, Jerri and Shii Ann. Probably they will do it alternately, to prevent any suspicious reaction among them (Rob M. = C, Ethan = M, Tom = C, Jerri = M, Amber = C and Shii Ann = M). Well again, Lex SHOULD HAVE asking the RAJ alliance for his ticket to the Final 4. Once again, Lex is predicted or rumored to be one of the Final 4 with Rupert, Jenna Lewis and Alicia (or alternately swap either Shii Ann, Amber or Kathy – if she makes The Merge), as regarding to several columnist thought (I can’t remember clearly anymore)
3)   Jenna Lewis and Rupert (+ Alicia?) – Or after Lex successfully throwing in the RAT to the loser lodge with little help from RAJ, Lex and his original alliance (assume Shii Ann, Ethan and Kathy really had agreed with Lex, which I doubt about Kathy) finally re-playing hard (or reveal their strategy) by voting out the RAJ alliance and they would go to the final 4 lodge (could be Rupert who could win ICs consecutively or Jenna Lewis who treated as not a threat). Once again, Lex could be the Final 4 with Shii Ann, Ethan and Kathy OR with Jenna Lewis, Rupert and Kathy (still can’t remember)
   
   Other thoughts:-
1)   I thought Kathy and Lex had a similar game plan. Jump ship with smart move without knowing each other’s
2)   Why the editor let us know that Kathy is going to jump ship at any time? Probably letting us know that Kathy wouldn’t have gone so far in the game or at least at pre-merge stage, I guess? Remember Shii Ann in S. Thailand? She told us that she wanted to jump ship but what happened? She toasted! Could we apply to Kathy’s situation?
3)   Why the editor let us hear when Kathy talked to Chapera that she and Lex had an alliance? It wouldn’t surprise us but immediately speculate that Chapera is going to toast Lex once he comes in The Merge. If that the case, it all very predictable for Lex. They seemed given us information. Have MB and JP told us that they are going to tease their audiences? Is it possible to say that Lex could fit in himself with the alliance of Chapera, actually?
4)   Probably Shii Ann would do something stupid but as long as Lex concerned about her opinions and treated her right, I think she’s OK with Lex. She’s desperate of seeking for someone that she could trust. I know psychology a bit. She’s complainer, right? But we rarely saw her complaining about Lex. Almost zero!
5)   It’s easy to know that now Kathy makes The Merge (Teddy Bears Advert Wearing) but is that easy? Come on! She’s not going anywhere and that’s why she went out for the advert. As I concerned from the past, whoever makes themselves really far in the game, they silenced as grave! But not for who’s not.
6)   In the last tribal council, Colby and Ethan had mentioned about hate being lose to Rob M. and Chapera. Seems like both of them are fated to be lose to Rob M. Lex didn’t mention about it. He could have talk about it at the TC but the editor won’t show it. Does it mean anything? Could Lex outlast Rob M.? If Ethan and Colby thought Rob M. as a treat that need to be beat, Lex might has something different in his mind – Rob M. as a treat need to be support with nothing but fake!
   
That’s all I could think of. Hopefully, Lex goes all the way and wins the game! Go Lex! Go outlast Kathy! Long live grand master and schemer Lex!


Oh no! Lex blew my thoughts! Ethan is gone!

surviordude_JT

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2004, 10:43:33 PM »
I thought that lex was smart about colby but Now???

We will have to wait & find out......


Offline puddin

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2004, 08:00:20 AM »
MaiLex Welcome to the board!! :D Wow that was a lot to read..and well worth it ..you sure must like to type  :D
I see your point and I would Love to see Lex walk away with the million$..But, I don't think that Rob M will keep him around for long..Rob M is running the whole show!If I was one of the players left..I would get Rob out of there ASAP! (But that's my opinion :P)
Rupert/Rob/Jenna/&Ambers alliance will hold up..(although the editing shows us otherwise)
I understand why Lex cut his biggest threats..but, I don't understand why he surrounded himself with a all girl tribe...i don't understand his strategy ? I guess that when Lex is booted we will find out.. ???
 In my opinion..Ethan would have been the perfect person to take to the Final 2 ..Who would vote for someone that already won The Million?


Quote
First off, forgive me for my English.
It was perfect!No reason to apologize :D..I totally understood your point. Again..welcome to the board :D!!
                                                       puddin

surviordude_JT

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2004, 12:03:24 PM »
I agree puddin Get rob otta there & forgetabouthim

Offline Bathfizzy

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2004, 12:54:10 AM »
Welcome to the board Mailex.  you certainly have a lot of ideas there regarding what could happen after the long awaited Merge.  I think Lex was right to get rid of Ethan.  Although Ethan is a strong player he always screws up during the challenges as he gets excited and breaks an oar, forgets something, can't untie something.  If only he took a breath and calmed down instead of going at breakneck speed, he would do better.  So Ethan hasn't exactly helped Mogo Mogo win any challenges. :o

Offline kcat444

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2004, 05:58:06 PM »
I wonder though if Ethan would mess up on purpose at times just so he wouldn't be viewed as the strongest.  I mean since the physically strongest haven't always gotten to the merge in past Survivors, except Colby.  I really thought this when he messed up on the log roll.  Wasn't he a professional soccer player?

Offline puddin

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2004, 07:33:58 PM »
Here's a pretty good interview w/ Ethan in TV Guide  ;)
kcat444 ~also , Ethan's website~

{Ethans website~  http://www.ezohn.com/     }
Survivor's Ethan Ejected
by Angel Cohn

 

Cute guys are dropping like flies on Survivor: All-Stars. Seems it's all thanks to one man, Lex. Mogo Mogo's tattooed tribesman schemed for Colby's ouster last week, then preyed on pal Ethan Zohn. Lex insisted his anti-Ethan vote was "only business," but Zohn sees it a bit differently. Here, the Survivor: Africa winner who used his $1 million to start a soccer-oriented AIDS charity tells TV Guide Online about Lex's betrayal, his lazy tribemates and Rob and Amber's reality TV romance.



TVGO: Are you mad at Lex?
Ethan Zohn: [Sighs] Am I mad at Lex? While I was out there, I was a little mad at Lex, but now everything's fine. We are friends and buddies. Basically, we differed in opinion. Lex wanted me to go and I wanted to stay.

TVGO: He said not to take it personally but how can you do that?
Ethan: Exactly. He takes me aside, as his friend, and tells me, as his friend, that he's voting me off. Yet, he [went on] to explain to me that he's playing this game businesslike and friendship won't get in the way. Because that hurt him last time. It is a little difficult to understand.

 
 
 
TVGO: Were you glad he told you, or would you rather have been surprised?
Ethan: That's a good question. I think, in the end, I'm glad he told me. He does know me as a person and respects that I would have wanted to know before I left. But you are never happy when someone comes to you and says that.

TVGO: You outlasted the other past Survivor winners. That's something.
Ethan: I know. That feels great. I outlasted all of the winners. That's a pretty good feeling. It is a testament to how I played the game, and that I played the game well.

TVGO: Why did Jerri upset you more than Shii Ann? They both seemed equally annoying.
Ethan: I was a little upset because I had lived with Jerri over on Saboga and I saw what she did. She's kind of... what's the word? Useless. And then, she came over to Mogo Mogo and did the same thing. I just felt that, of us two new guys, she didn't deserve to be there.

TVGO: It didn't look like Shii Ann did much, either.
Ethan: Correct. Shii Ann didn't do that well in the challenges, but around camp, she was helpful, she cooked a little bit and she cleaned. Whereas Jerri kind of just sat on her butt.

TVGO: How do you feel about winning Survivor sponsor Tylenol's "Push Through the Pain" contest twice?
Ethan: I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. I know I had to take a lot of Tylenol [while] watching the show. The first one, when I banged my head on the side of the [swimming] tank, I think I deserved it. But I don't know why I got the other one.

TVGO: It looked like you banged your head pretty hard. Did you have a concussion?
Ethan: I think we all had concussions out there. We are all crazy for being there.

TVGO: Ya think?
Ethan: I think we're all a little bit nuts.

TVGO: Speaking of nuts, you were on Rupert's team. Is he crazy or a nice guy?
Ethan: [Laughs] A little bit of both. One-on-one, he's a nice guy. In front of the camera, he's like a different person. He likes things to go his way. He's a hard worker, he got food and I definitely respect that and I liked having him on my team. Except that he made silly choices like building a bomb shelter in the middle of the beach, or building a raft that could hold about 47 people. Those two things were a little questionable.

TVGO: I know you like to keep your private life private...
Ethan: I do like to keep my private life private.

TVGO: Well, you are dating fellow Survivor alum Jenna Morasca. What's your take on the public romance between Boston Rob and Amber?
Ethan: Ahh, the romance. Luckily, they were on a different island and I didn't have to witness it firsthand. All I can think about is that you are eating fish all day, you are not brushing your teeth and what must their tongues taste like? I wouldn't do it as a strategy. If I saw someone that had a strong bond like that, I would want to separate them as soon as possible. But if they are able to find trust and true romance in a game like this, under these circumstances, then I applaud them for it and wish them the best of luck.

TVGO: So even if you'd been in the same tribe as Jenna, you wouldn't have pursued your feelings?
Ethan: I wouldn't let any sort of romance take part in my strategy. It seems detrimental. That's not to say you can't be good friends, or even have trust, but I would not want anyone to see that. It is a window into a different part of my life.

TVGO: A lot of female viewers are upset that you and Colby are no longer in the game...
Ethan: [Laughs] Well, Rupert is still there, and Tom.

TVGO: How does it feel to be a "Survivor heartthrob"?
Ethan: It is a little weird. It is not a bad thing, of course, but it is definitely a little strange to have people look at me in that light when all I wanted to do was go out there and play a game. It is nice to have people say nice things about me. I don't think anyone would deny that, but sometimes, it is a little embarrassing and makes me blush.

TVGO: Last night, when you wore your buff around your head like a kerchief, you looked kind of like my grandma.
Ethan: Did I? Your grandma has a big beard like that? Are you sure it wasn't your grandpa?

TVGO: Come on. It looked silly when you tied it under your chin.
Ethan: The reason you do that is because it is like a thousand below zero at night and you are wet and you are cold. I was given a T-shirt, a pair of shorts, socks, shoes and a buff. When you are wet and it is in the middle of the night and the wind blows and it is raining and the fire goes out, you are freezing. If I could have crawled inside my own mouth, I would have.

TVGO: So you weren't concerned about your appearance?
Ethan: Obviously, I wasn't concerned about my appearance. Some people were. But me? No.

TVGO: Would you ever consider doing another Survivor?
Ethan: Yeah. I love the game of Survivor. I love the competition. I love pushing my body to the max, physically and mentally and spiritually. I would jump at a chance to do it again.

TVGO: Who do you think deserves to win?
Ethan: Deserves to win? That's a tough question. I think everyone that deserves to win is off the show already. [Laughs] Just kidding. I'd like to see Lex go far in the game.

TVGO: Even after what he did?
Ethan: Even after he stabbed me in the back and did all that stuff. I think he's playing a good game. Since he knocked me out, if he goes all the way, it makes me look a little better. But truthfully, I think all the best players have been voted out.



Offline Bathfizzy

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Re:Lex smart or not?
« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2004, 12:27:09 AM »
Your right Pudding, pretty good interview with Ethan.  I am a little surprised at his last statement  "But truthfully, I think all the best players have been voted out."  Is that a slam towards Lex?
kcatt44, I don't think Ethan would mess up on purpose to not look strong.  He is a strong competitor.  Competitors never give up and they give it their 100% at all times.  I know this for a fact as I have two friends that play competitive sports and they told me that they can't do anything for fun without being competitive about it.  It is just part of them.  this includes a simple game of 10 pin bowling.  If I got a gutter ball (which I do quite often) I laugh it off and wait for my next turn.  If my competitive friends get a gutter ball, they are not happy and then fret over what went wrong, etc. etc.