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The Amazing Race => The Amazing Race Discussion => Topic started by: theschnauzers on February 03, 2010, 01:51:35 AM

Title: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on February 03, 2010, 01:51:35 AM
28 Races, 311 teams, 576 Racers

Here is a list of all the teams from the 27 seasons to date in order of average leg placement. (Season 28 will be added to the main list after the season ends; during the season the leg-by-leg leaderboard will be updated after each episode.

The numbers before the team name on each row shows that team's season and that team's overall order of finish in that season. The fraction is a numerator equal to the total ordinal placements from the legs that team raced in added together, divided by the number of legs that team raced. The final number is the average placement taken out to a value of one-ten thousandth. Where more than one team has the same average, a team that completed more legs is ranked ahead of a team that completed fewer legs, and then, for teams that competed for the same number of legs, a team from an earlier season is ranked ahead of a team from a later season. Finally, where there are teams from the same season, with the same average, and lasted for the same number of legs, the team that placed closer to first place is ranked ahead of the other team.

Keep in mind that in seasons 6, 7, 9, and 10, there was an überleg (which is treated as two legs for the purposes of this list), that seasons 18 and 19 had legs with pit stops that had no intervening rest period before the next leg started; that 12 teams competed in seasons 3, 4, 10, and 15, and that ten teams competed in season 8. (In season 22, David-Connor decided to withdraw after starting the fifth leg due to David’s injury in leg 2 that required immediate surgery. While they reached the pit stop before any of the teams completed the leg, they are shown as checking in last for computation purposes. In seasons 25 and 26, there were four teams that started the final leg, with an elimination mid-leg. The eliminated team is shown being in fourth place.)  Finally, seasons 11, 18, and 24 featured teams with returning Racers only, although in two instances, a team was composed of team members who did not compete together in their earlier season. Teams with more than one appearance are listed separately for each of their seasons.

The lines in navy blue with italics are the final three teams of each season.
Teams in purple are the winning teams of each season.
The teams that were eliminated during the first leg are in maroon.
No team from seasons 18 or 19 is in maroon, as no team was eliminated on the first leg. There is a paragraph break in the list after every tenth team.

The lower the average, the better the team placed on average. The best possible average for a team that reaches the final three (for an 12-leg race with 11 teams) and therefore, completes the Race would be:
(1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1)  12/12= 1.0000.
The worse possible average for a team that reaches the final three (for an 12-leg race with 11 teams) would be:
(11+11+10+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+3) 87/12=7.2500.

(I used 12 legs, 11 teams as the most common variation in describing the highest and lowest values. This will vary slightly, depending on the designations of some legs as either NELs or an überleg in the Race design, and for the number of teams (10 to 12) and number of legs (11 to13) for any given season.)

I plan to update this list after every season using this first post.


09-02 Eric-Jeremy      22/13   1.6923
20-01 Rachel-Dave      22/12   1.8333
15-01 Meghan-Cheyne      24/12   2.0000
27-02 Justin & Diana       25/12   2.0833
24-01 Dave - Connor         26/12   2.1666
14-01 Tammy-Victor         27/12   2.2500
20-02 Art-J.J.         27/12   2.2500
07-02 Rob-Amber          30/13   2.3076
01-02 Frank-Margarita      31/13   2.3846
06-02 Kris-Jon           31/13   2.3846
10
10-01Tyler-James          31/13   2.3846
22-01 Bates-Anthony      29/12   2.4166
13-01 Nick-Starr         27/11   2.4545
01-01 Rob-Brennan         32/13   2.4615
05-02 Colin-Christie         32/13   2.4615
09-01 BJ-Tyler         32/13   2.4615
02-02 Tara-Wil         33/13   2.5384
16-02 Jet-Cord         31/12   2.5833
23-03 Nicole-Travis       31/12   2.5833
25-02 Misti-Jim       31/12   2.5833
20
13-02 Ken-Tina         29/11   2.6363
19-04 Andy-Tommy          29/11   2.6363
11-04 Oswald-Danny         32/12   2.6666
03-01 Flo-Zach         35/13   2.6923
03-03 Ken-Gerard         35/13   2.6923
14-03 Margie-Luke         33/12   2.7500
11-08 Rob-Amber           11/4   2.7500
01-03 Joe-Bill         36/13   2.7692
21-05 Abbie-Ryan      25/9    2.7777
24-05 Jet-Cord         28/10   2.8000
30
08-01 Linz            31/11   2.8181
19-01 Ernie-Cindy          34/12   2.8333
25-03 Adam-Bethany       34/12   2.8333
23-01 Jason-Amy       35/12    2.9166
06-04 Hayden-Aaron         35/12   2.9166
11-02 Dustin-Kandice        38/13   2.9230
07-03 Ron-Kelly          39/13   3.0000
10-02 Rob-Kimberly         39/13   3.0000
12-06 Azaria-Hendekea         18/6   3.0000
17-03 Jill-Thomas            6/12   3.0000
40
22-08 David-Connor      15/5   3.0000
04-01 Reichen-Chip         40/13   3.0769
17-01 Nat-Kat            37/12   3.0833
26-01 Laura-Tyler          37/12   3.0833
03-04 Derek-Drew         34/11   3.0909
15-04 Flight Time-Big Easy      34/11   3.0909
13-04 Toni-Dallas         31/10   3.1000
25-05 Kym - Alli       28/9   3.1111
07-01 Uchenna-Joyce      41/13   3.1538
15-02 Sam-Dan         38/12   3.1666
50
10-04 Dustin-Kandice         38/12    3.1666
10-07 Peter-Sarah         19/6   3.1666
26-02 Jelani-Jenny       38/12      3.1666
17-02 Brook-Claire      38/12   3.1666
21-03 Trey-Lexi         38/12    3.1666
12-01 Rachel-TK          35/11   3.1818
08-02 Bransen            35/11   3.1818
27-06 Tanner & Josh       29/9   3.2222
13-05 Terence-Sarah         26/8   3.2500
18-03 Gary-Malloy      9/12   3.2500
60
08-03 Weaver         36/11   3.2727
21-04 Nadiya-Natalie      36/11   3.2727
05-03 Brandon-Nicole         43/13   3.3076
18-01 Kisha-Jen         40/12   3.3333
26-03 Hayley-Blair          40/2   3.3333
27-01 Kelsey & Joey       40/12   3.3333
20-03 Brendon-Rachel      41/12   3.4166
01-04 Kevin-Drew            37/11   3.3636
16-06 Steve-Allison            27/8    3.3750
02-01 Chris-Alex         44/13   3.3846
70
05-01 Chip-Kim         44/13   3.3846
23-02 Tim-Marie          41/12   3.4166
12-02 Ronald-Christina       38/11   3.4545
18-04 Zev-Justin             38/11   3.4545
06-01 Freddy-Kendra      45/13   3.4615
06-06 Jonathan-Victoria             32/9   3.5555
14-06 Mel-Mike                25/7   3.5714
19-02 Jeremy-Sandy       43/12   3.5833
21-02 Jaymes-James      43/12   3.5833
11-01 Eric-Danielle          47/13   3.6153
80
12-05 Kynt-Vyxsin         29/8   3.6250
04-05 Millie-Chuck         33/9   3.6666
02-03 Blake-Paige      48/13   3.6923
08-04 Godlewski            37/10   3.7000
12-04 Jennifer-Nathan         37/10   3.7000   
05-06 Charla-Mirna         26/7   3.7142
04-04 Jon-Al            41/11   3.7272
24-04 Leo - Jamal         41/11   3.7272
18-02 Flight Time-Big Easy   45/12   3.7500
22-09 Jessica-John         15/4   3.7500
90
24-03 Brendon - Rachel   45/12   3.7500
26-06 Aly-Steve          30/8      3.7500
09-04 Joseph-Monica         42/11   3.8181
23-04 Leo-Jamal          42/11   3.8181
04-02 Kelly-Jon         50/13   3.8461
02-05 Gary-Dave            35/9   3.8888[color]
14-02 Cara-Jaime         47/12   3.9166
04-03 David-Jeff         52/13   4.0000
16-05 Carol-Brandy         36/9    4.0000
02-04 Oswald-Danny         44/11   4.0000
100
25-04 Brooke-Robbie          49/12   4.0833
07-05 Lynn-Alex             37/9   4.1111
08-05 Paolo            33/8   4.1250
21-06 James-Abba         33/8    4.1250
02-06 Mary-Peach         29/7   4.1428
22-07 Pam-Winnie         29/7   4.1428
11-03 Charla-Mirna        54/13   4.1538
05-04 Linda-Karen         50/12   4.1666
12-03 Nicolas-Donald      46/11   4.1818
15-05 Gary-Matt            38/9   4.2222
110
09-03 Ray-Yolanda      55/13   4.2307
02-08 Shola-Doyin         17/4   4.2500
15-03 Brian-Ericka      51/12   4.2500
22-02 Max-Katie      51/12   4.2500
24-02 Caroline - Jennifer      51/12   4.2500
14-04 Kisha-Jen            47/11   4.2727
19-07 Justin-Jennifer          30/7   4.2850
27-05   Denise & James Earl    43/10   4.3000
16-01 Jordan-Daniel      52/12   4.3333   
16-03 Brent-Caite          52/12   4.3333   
120
11-05 Uchenna/Joyce          39/9   4.3333
22-03 Mona-Beth      52/12   4.3333
27-03   Logan & Chris       52/12   4.3333
16-04 Louie-Michael         48/11   4.3636
19-06 Laurence-Zac          35/8   4.3750
16-08 Joseph-Heidi          22/5    4.4000
19-03 Amani-Marcus       54/12   4.5000
25-01 Amy-Maya       54/12   4.5000
14-08 Amanda-Kris         18/4   4.5000
03-02 Teri-Ian         59/13   4.5384
130
18-06 Jet-Cord            41/9   4.5555
21-01 Josh-Brent         55/12    4.5833
06-05 Lori-Bolo            46/10   4.6000
10-05 Erwin-Godwin         46/10    4.6000
20-05 Mark-Bopper         46/10   4.6000
17-06 Gary-Malloy         37/8   4.6250
10-09 Duke-Lauren         14/3   4.6666
23-09 Chester-Ephraim          14/3   4.6666   
06-03 Adam-Rebecca      61/13   4.6923
22-05 Joey-Meghan         47/10   4.7000
140
07-06 Brian-Greg          33/7   4.7142
09-06 Lake-Michelle         33/7   4.7142
08-07 Schroeder            19/4   4.7500
17-09 Connor-Jonathan         19/4   4.7500
26-04 Mike-Rochelle          57/12   4.7500
03-05 John Vito-Jill         48/10   4.8000
11-07 Teri-Ian              29/6   4.8333
25-06 Tim-Te Jay          39/8   4.8750
09-05 Fran-Barry            44/9   4.8888
20-04 Vanessa-Ralph         54/11   4.9090
150
22-04 Caroline-Jennifer         54/11   4.9090
10-03 Lyn-Karlyn         65/13   5.0000
07-07 Ray-Deanna          30/6   5.0000
04-09 Steve-Josh         20/4   5.0000
01-09 Pat-Brenda         15/3   5.0000
13-09 Mark-Bill            15/3   5.0000
24-08 Margie-Luke         25/5   5.0000
25-05 Matt-Ashley          51/10   5.1000
17-05 Chad-Stephanie         46/9   5.1111
13-06 Kelly-Christy         36/7    5.1428
160
03-07 Aaron-Arianne         31/6   5.1666
26-07 Jeff-Jackie          31/6   5.1666
13-03 Andrew-Dan      57/11   5.1818
14-05 Mark-Michael         47/9   5.2222
11-06 Joe-Bill              42/8   5.2500
05-08 Bob-Joyce         21/4   5.2500
12-08 Lorena-Jason         21/4   5.2500
17-04 Nick-Vicki                58/11   5.2727
27-04 Tiffany & Krista       58/11   5.2727
06-07 Gus-Hera         37/7   5.2857
170
17-07 Michael-Kevin         37/7   5.2857
04-07 Monica-Sheree         32/6   5.3333
05-07 Marshall-Lance         32/6   5.3333
07-09 Debbie-Bianca         16/3   5.3333
16-09 Monique-Shawne          16/3    5.3333
18-08 Margie-Luke         32/6   5.3333
07-04 Meredith-Gretchen         59/11   5.3636
23-06 Nicky-Kim             43/8    5.3750
23-08 Brandon-Adam          27/5    5.4000
17-08 Katie-Rachel         27/5   5.4000
180
25-08 Keith-Whitney          27/5   5.4000
26-08 Bergen-Kurt          27/5   5.4000
04-06 Tian-Jaree            38/7   5.4285
19-05 Bill-Cathi             50/10   5.5000
08-06 Gaghan            33/6   5.5000
05-10 Alison-Donny         11/2   5.5000
20-06 Nary-Jamie         44/8   5.5000
20-07 Joey-Danny         33/6   5.5000
03-06 Andre-Damon         39/7   5.5714
27-07   Cindy & Rick       39/7   5.5714
190
16-07 Jeff-Jordan         34/6    5.6666   
03-09 Heather-Eve         23/4   5.7500
01-05 Nancy-Emily         52/9   5.7777
05-05 Kami-Karli            58/10   5.8000
02-07 Cyndy-Russell         29/5   5.8000
03-08 Michael-Kathy         29/5   5.8000
12-07 Shana-Jennifer         29/5   5.8000
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle    29/5   5.8000   
09-07 David-Lori            35/6   5.8333
24-06 Flight Time-Big Easy      47/8   5.8750
200
04-11 Amanda-Chris         12/2   6.0000   
15-08 Lance-Keri            30/5   6.0000
15-09 Zev-Justin            24/4   6.0000
18-05 Kent-Vyxsin         60/10   6.0000
18-07 Ronald-Christina         42/7   6.0000
21-07 Rob-Kelley         36/6    6.0000
21-10 Amy-Daniel         12/2    6.0000
23-05 Ally-Ashley          55/9    6.1111
10-06 David-Mary         49/8   6.1250
22-06 Chuck-Wynona         49/8   6.1250   
210
24-07 John-Jessica         43/7   6.1428
23-07 Tim-Danny           37/6    6.1666
04-08 Steve-Dave         31/5   6.2000
13-07 Aja-Ty            31/5    6.2000
09-09 Wanda-Desiree         25/4   6.2500
21-09 Caitlin-Brittany         19/3    6.3333
25-07 Shelley-Nici          38/6   6.3333
01-06 Lenny-Karen         45/7   6.4285
01-08 David-Margaretta           26/4   6.5000
07-08 Susan-Patrick         26/4   6.5000
220               
08-09 Rogers            13/2   6.5000
23-10 Rowan-Shane          13/2    6.5000
18-11 Amanda-Kris         13/2   6.5000
15-06 Maria-Tiffany         46/7   6.5714
01-07 Paul-Amie            33/5   6.6000
14-07 Christie-Jodi            40/6   6.6666
14-09 Brad-Victoria         20/3   6.6666
26-09 Harley-Jonathan          27/4   6.7500
20-08 Kerri-Stacy         34/5   6.8000
10-08 Tom-Terry            28/4   7.0000
230
06-09 Lena-Kristy         21/3   7.0000
08-08 Aiello            21/3   7.0000
19-09 Kaylani-Lisa          21/3   7.0000
02-10 Hope-Norm         14/2   7.0000
19-10 Ethan-Jenna          14/2   7.0000
05-09 Jim-Marsha         22/3   7.3333
15-07 Mika-Canaan         46/6   7.6666
15-10 Marcy-Ron         23/3   7.6666
13-08 Marisa-Brooke         31/4   7.7500
09-08 Danielle-Dani         39/5   7.8000
240
18-09 Cara-Jaime         39/5   7.8000
19-08 Liz-Marie                39/5   7.8000
06-08 Don-Mary Jean         40/5   8.0000
01-10 Kim-Leslie            16/2   8.0000
10-10 Kellie-Jamie         16/2    8.0000
20-09 Elliot-Andrew         24/3   8.0000
24-10 Mark-Mallory         16/2   8.0000
27-10 Alex & Adam       15/2   8.0000
21-08 Gary-Will            33/4    8.2500
04-10 Russell-Cindy         25/3   8.3333
250
12-09 Marianna-Julia         25/3   8.3333
18-10 Mel-Mike            25/3   8.3333
25-09 Michael-Scott          25/3   8.3333
27-09 Ernest & Jin       25/3   8.3333
25-10 Dennis-Isabelle          17/2   8.5000
02-09 Peggy-Claire         27/3   9.0000
03-10 Dennis-Andrew         27/3   9.0000
06-10 Meredith-Maria         18/2   9.0000
11-09 David-Mary           27/3   9.0000
12-10 Kate-Pat            18/2   9.0000
260
20-10 Dave-Cherie         18/2   9.0000
22-10 Idries-Jamil         18/2   9.0000
24-09 Joey-Meghan         28/3   9.3333   
07-10 Megan-Heidi         19/2   9.5000
13-10 Anthony-Stephanie         19/2   9.5000
14-10 Linda-Steve         19/2   9.5000
15-11 Garrett-Jessica         19/2   9.5000
17-10 Andie-Jenna         19/2   9.5000
19-11 Ron-Bill             19/2   9.5000
09-10 Lisa-Joni            20/2   10.0000
270
 11-10 Kevin-Drew           20/2   10.0000
16-10 Jody-Shannon          20/2   10.0000
08-10 Black         10/1   10.0000
26-10 Libby-CJ          10/2   10.0000
03-11 Tramel-Talicia         21/2   10.5000
01-11 Matt-Ana         11/1   11.0000 
02-11 Deidre-Hillary         11/1   11.0000
05-11 Dennis-Erika         11/1   11.0000
06-11 Joe-Avi         11/1    11.0000
07-11 Ryan-Chuck          11/1    11.0000
280
09-11 John-Scott         11/1   11.0000
10-11 Vipul-Arti         11/1   11.0000
11-11 John Vito-Jill         11/1   11.0000
12-11 Ari-Staella         11/1   11.0000
13-11 Anita-Arthur         11/1   11.0000
14-11 Jennifer-Preston      11/1   11.0000
16-11 Adrian-Dana          11/1    11.0000
17-11 Ron-Tony         11/1   11.0000
20-11 Misa-Maiya         11/1   11.0000
21-11Rob-Sheila         11/1    11.0000
290
22-11 Matthew-Daniel       11/1   11.0000
23-11Hoskote -- Naina       11/1    11.0000
24-11 Natalie - Nadiya       11/1   11.0000
25-11 Lisa-Michelle       11/1   11.0000
26-11 Jeff-Lyda          11/1   11.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne      11/1   11.0000
03-12 Gina-Sylvia         12/1   12.0000
04-12 Debra-Steve         12/1   12.0000
10-12 Bilal-Sa'eed           12/1   12.0000
15-12 Eric-Lisa         12/1   12.0000
300

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Mister RC on February 03, 2010, 09:51:15 AM
Awesome list, as always. I think I saw you do this elsewhere in the past.  I totally agree with counting TBC's as two legs (as there are typically 2 RB/Detours within the "one leg").  Sadly, it gets difficult to have a perfect comparison when you factor in races from TAR12 to the most recent TAR.  That's due to the 11-leg format used from TAR's 12-14.

Something I did on my now "deceased" geocities site for the first 9 seasons was that I also factored in each team's placement vs. the field within each segment.  In other words, it's each team's placement out of the # of teams the beat (or that beat them) within each leg.  For instance, Flo & Zach finished 2nd in their first leg.  I multiplied that by 12 (then 5*11 and 3*10 and so on to get to a total of 249 for Flo & Zach). 

After the overall number was reached, I divided it by the total number of teams that raced in each leg throughout the race.  For TAR3, that total would be 88 (12+11+10+9+8+7+6+5+5+5+4+3+3=88).  Therefore, factoring the field in addition to a team's placement and the number of legs that team completed would have given Flo & Zach an average of 2.83.

It's a little bit higher than the 2.69 that you had, but IMO, I feel that it was more of an accomplishment seeing someone win a couple of legs with 9 or more teams racing in that leg, compared to someone winning 2 (or more) legs with 4 or 5 teams remaining.

I think I saved the other teams placement somewhere else, but I don't know for sure (or it's buried somewhere & I'd be better off recreating it to include season 10 and beyond).  I like your list though in general; really gives a nice look toward how a lot of the teams performed overall during their stay on the race.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: apskip on February 03, 2010, 10:23:37 AM
The raw statistics are a good start, but I think the difficulty of prime opponents is another factor. Here are teams that won despite relatively equal performance by another team:

Uchenna/Joyce  AR7 (opp. Rob/Amber)
BJ/Tyler AR9 (opp. Eric/Jeremy)
Chris/Alex AR2 (opp. Wil/Tara)
Freddie/Kendra AR6 (opp. Kris/Jon)
Nick/Starr AR13 (opp. Ken/Tina)
 
I think a way needs to be developed to factor in dominance of a season despite not winning it. The prime example of this is Colin/Christie, who lost of Chip/Kim only by multiple instances of bad luck (fog in Calgary, bad advice from American Airlines, tire blowout in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area).

I believe that the necessary judgments to determine "who is the best team of all time" are inherently subjective. Statistics can only take you so far. You have to develop essentially qualitative measures that get somehow translated into numbers in order to accomplish a decent ranking.


Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Coutzy on February 03, 2010, 10:43:18 AM
Rob and Brennan also managed to beat a team that performed roughly equal to them (Avg. place difference between them and Frank and Margarita was roughly .08)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 03, 2010, 12:27:56 PM
There is an earlier version of this over at TWoP, but I haven't updated it in recent seasons, and there were inconsistencies in computation that needed to be fixed. I also decided that rather than round off decimals, I'd take the fractions out 4 digits. And the attitude of TPTB there isn't receptive to this sort of thing anymore, so it was time to move it elsewhere, such as here.

I've reached the conclusion that the variations in the number of legs and teams wouldn't likely make a real difference in this type of measurement. Dominating teams in a season are reflected in this placement approach; you need look no further than at the teams currently listed at the top of the listing. I'd also look at the final three teams that have the highest values, such as the ones averaging 5.0000 or higher, and I think there's little argument that some final three teams were very, very, lucky to make final three.

One problem in using mid-leg points to fine-tune placements is that the show is inconsistent in providing such points from leg-to-leg and season-to-season. Then there's the issue of bunching, and the issue of filmed but unaired tasks and route markers, both of which make having complete ordinal information impossible.

Finally, keep in mind that this is intended to be an objective tool, and not reflect subjective opinions. Of course, this listing is a starting point for those types of discussion, but that's fine with me. I doubt there would be any consensus on subjectively developed performance rankings anyhow.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: chill_sd on February 03, 2010, 12:52:05 PM
It's interesting when you look at All-Stars.  Except for the bottom three teams,  a pretty close ranking.

11-04 Oswald/Danny      32/12   2.6666
11-08 Rob/Amber        11/4      2.7500
11-02 Dustin/Kandice     38/13   2.9230
11-01 Eric/Danielle    47/13   3.6153
11-03 Charla/Mirna     54/13   4.1538
11-05 Uchenna/Joyce    39/9      4.3333
11-07 Teri/Ian           29/6      4.8333
11-06 Joe/Bill           42/8      5.2500
11-09 David/Mary        27/3      9.0000
11-10 Kevin/Drew        20/2      10.0000
11-11 John Vito/Jill         11/1      11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Hooky on February 03, 2010, 01:56:03 PM
I love your list! I've been hoping for someone to post something like this for a while. Thanks! :wohoo:

I found an error, though. In Season 7 you have it listed as being out of 12 legs, but if you count double-legs that would result in a total of 13 legs, not 12. That also means that Lynn & Alex raced through 9/13 legs, and Meredith and Gretchen raced through 11/13 legs.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 03, 2010, 05:55:30 PM
Quote
I found an error, though. In Season 7 you have it listed as being out of 12 legs, but if you count double-legs that would result in a total of 13 legs, not 12. That also means that Lynn & Alex raced through 9/13 legs, and Meredith and Gretchen raced through 11/13 legs.

I kept each season's leg-by-leg placements, so I'll double-check when I get a chance. As you can gather, it's a very painstaking process, and all it takes is one interruption to mess up. And making sure all the uberlegs got treated consistently meant that I had to move teams up and down since originally I counted them as separate legs in some seasons and not in others. But the show has never failed to show the order of the mid-point arrivals for a double-leg, so it makes it easier to equitably treat it as two legs.

As to All-Stars , I think the numbers can be said to show that it was a fairly wide open season once Romber were out of the way.  It's also surprising how many of the All-Star Teams had similar placement averages to their original season(s), which is what helped convince me that the approach I'm using to compute this list was the fairest way to go.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 04, 2010, 01:18:50 AM
OK, I have found the problem, and fixed the list. It turns out that at some point the placements for leg 5 of season 7 got lost in the merged notes I worked from this week, although they were in my original notes I made back in season seven. I've recomputed the values for the seven teams affected, and re-ordered the list with the correct values for those teams.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Glamazon Racer on February 05, 2010, 01:29:05 AM
Wow, amazing work! This is sensational, and I thank you for producing this! :hearts:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Benedicto on February 05, 2010, 10:31:12 PM
I love this

but there's another way to know dominance ^_^

From wuming01:

For each leg, the placement is weighted (by multiplying the percentile total, in decimals, the team placed in comparison to all teams taking part in the leg).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 06, 2010, 12:37:27 AM
Coming in first (or second) on most of the legs appears to be what most people mean by dominance; and in several of the seasons, there were more than one dominant team, and sometimes neither of those teams won the final leg.

In other words, there are different ways to define that term, and as a result, there's probably a mathematical formula to meet every different definition. This is where I apply the K-I-S-S principle, and that explains the reason why my approach is what it is.  

I should point out that comparing any two teams using this list is relative and not intended to be exact; I think one could reasonably asset that where several teams are within say, .01 of a given placement value, and they raced in approximately the same number of legs, that those performances are essentially equal. But that is a subjective interpretation, and not necessarily a conclusion cast in concrete definitiveness. (Think about it, it's a play on words. :fun)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: nathandg0924 on February 06, 2010, 07:13:26 AM
Wow, this is very interesting, hopefully you post more
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 08, 2010, 02:11:20 PM
Years ago I used to do this for the site (but it got to long doing every team) The only question I have is for the DBL leg, I assume you count how they performed during each half of the leg.  And if so in season 9, who got to the matt first Dani & Danielle or Wanda & Desiree (I could never tell with the footage we got).

And for the Family Edition, The finale leg as two full legs in it, but where do you split it.  At getting to the stadium or after they got their departure times?

As to factors, pure numbers aren't enough to go on. 

For example seasons 1-5 had fast forwards available in all but one leg, these means in the legs a fast forward was used it alters the possible outcome in relation to other season.

Then you have the fact that seasons 1-5 let any racer perform all roadblocks.

Season one (and a few other times over the years, but season one was of course the worst) had much harder clues then most all other seasons.  They also unlike any other season had no idea what to expect.

Seasons 13 and on, they had dramatically cut back on how much teams drive (this used to be a huge factor in how well you did).

Hell look at All Stars, and see how one airport mess really screwed with teams.  Impacting several legs.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 08, 2010, 02:28:20 PM
I don't look at episodes, I look at legs. (Only in the case of uberlegs, do I break it at all, and that's because we've always been shown the order of teams reaching the "continue racing" midpoint (even if that's been over two episodes, which is usually the case.)

Wiki doesn't keep track of that detail, but I have in my notes. One secondary source would normally be the CBS website, but those are impossible to retrieve these days, but Miss Alli's recaps also noted that information. (In other words, I trust my notes, as I've kept track of leg order of finish in real time ever since season three-- and reconstructing the first two seasons was easier then since CBS had "leg-by-leg leader boards." And that's true notwithstanding that CBS messed up a placement in season three that they never fixed.)

My theory is that notwithstanding the changes in how the over-all racecourse is designed (such as increased bunching) the overall average is what has value and not every single placement in each leg, or at points in the leg. It's like for other things, it is a measure of overall performance and not the moment to moment performance. Luck plays a role in winning the last leg; and no matter how you slice it, that can't really be measured....e.g., the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. (Just try telling me that the on-side kick play call in the third quarter wasn't a bit of luck.)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 08, 2010, 02:38:33 PM
The reason I mentioned the first part of season 9's leg (is that we don't see it happen, not even from clips, so I always hated that).  All we see is both on the matt at the same time (and order on the matt left or right isn't always the order).

As for the Family Edition, that final leg I hate (actually its their best leg), but I hate to figure out where the break would be.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 08, 2010, 03:00:52 PM
After looking at your list.  I think you don't consider season 8 final to be a DBL leg (though it does have all elements of one 2 roadblocks, 2 detours all in different citites).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 08, 2010, 06:12:18 PM
Take a look at how that final Family Edition leg was constructed, and you'll find that it was next to impossible to determine a specific point as the mid-point of the leg. (I pulled out my DVD, looked at my surviving notes, looked at Wiki, and Miss Alli's recap of that episode.)

Even Wikipedia calls the Olympic Stadium in Montreal as an "ostensible leg midpoint" because of the ambiguity of the situation. Was it the order of arrival at the stadium, the order teams found the clues in the searching task in the stadium before resting overnight,  or the time of departure the following morning? (All of which resulted in a different team order.)

In the other seasons with uberlegs, the double-length legs had a specific midpoint where teams were instructed to keep racing; and in season six (which was unplanned), the midpoint was generally considered to be the overnight wait at the cafe in Budapest. In many ways the FE final leg was similar to most of the early seasons where teams had an overnight wait that was not a pit stop in mid-leg of the final leg. With that in mind, I'm comfortable that the final leg in the Family Edition couldn't be treated as a true uberleg.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 08, 2010, 09:51:34 PM
Sorry If I sounded like I was complaining about what you used, trust me I was complaining because I could never decide on which point to use as it effect all three teams.  Personally as much as I hate the weavers I want to say arriving at the Stadium (since no other leg in race history has you looking for you departure times for your next episode, its always on that next episode).  Of course, then the other arguement is that every TBC leg also allows a rest period between legs (that would mean its after you find your departure times, thus my grey hair).

Oh but I was wrong about Dani & Danielle & Wanda & Desiree it is stated on air (what was I smoking, now off to see if I wrote it down current or wrong).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: jtarhead11 on February 09, 2010, 12:01:54 PM
 :tup:  Great research and work...  However, I'm interested in a different sort of list.  I'm hoping someone can help me out.  I'm curious to know, from the beginning of the race, the total # of m/m, f/f and m/f teams; the total # of openly gay male racers, (either on the same team or individually) vs openly lesbian racers; the # of "differently-able" racers; the # of racers in their 20s, 30s, 40s, etc; the racial breakdown of the racers: Asian, African American, Caucasian, Middle Eastern, etc...  Consider it a sort of TAR census.  I'd like to see the equality in The Amazing Race, (or lack thereof).  Perhaps these #s could help broaden the horizons of the casting process, make for more original and interesting Amazing Race Seasons, and expand the fan base...  Just wondering, thanks for the help!! 
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Coutzy on February 09, 2010, 12:26:17 PM
There are some problems with your proposal. Largely, how do you define "Differently-able"? A case could be made either way for Luke and Charla. Both these racers had a handicap while competing, but such a handicap wouldn't get them any parking privileges.

My point is, where do you draw the line? In these days, where obesity is considered a disability by some, who decides what makes differently-able on the race?
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: georgiapeach on February 09, 2010, 12:32:55 PM
Let's leave THIS thread for theschnauzers updates and discussion of that technique please.

All that info you are asking for is widely available, if you want to start another thread and ask for help, feel free jtarhead11. I personally find adding labels to teams rather distasteful though, but I see where you are going.

Back to topic please. :)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: jtarhead11 on February 09, 2010, 04:41:30 PM
Let's leave THIS thread for theschnauzers updates and discussion of that technique please.

All that info you are asking for is widely available, if you want to start another thread and ask for help, feel free jtarhead11. I personally find adding labels to teams rather distasteful though, but I see where you are going.

Back to topic please. :)

 :groan:  Georgiapeach, didn't mean to offend, and I'm certainly not trying to "label" anymore than the race already does. I was merely trying to explore some of the inequities in casting.  For example, did you know that, including season 16, only 7 openly gay women have been chosen for the race, while the number of openly gay men is at my count at least 21.  Seems a bit unfair don't you think??  And how many young, Caucasian Barbie and Ken type teams have been on??  Seriously, too many to count, but then America never gets tired of Barbie and Ken.   :lol:

But you're right, I should have started another thread to discuss this so as not to distract from theschnauzers AWESOME statistics skills!   
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: DeafRacer on February 09, 2010, 04:57:15 PM
There are some problems with your proposal. Largely, how do you define "Differently-able"? A case could be made either way for Luke and Charla. Both these racers had a handicap while competing, but such a handicap wouldn't get them any parking privileges.

My point is, where do you draw the line? In these days, where obesity is considered a disability by some, who decides what makes differently-able on the race?

Hey now! I am no "disability"  :neener:    My deafness wasn't a big problem for me on the Race. Hence, my mom and I finished in Top Four in every leg for entire race! Isn't that pretty impressive?

But under the law, I am labeled as disability. Oh well.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: DavidJunior on February 09, 2010, 05:39:36 PM
There are some problems with your proposal. Largely, how do you define "Differently-able"? A case could be made either way for Luke and Charla. Both these racers had a handicap while competing, but such a handicap wouldn't get them any parking privileges.

My point is, where do you draw the line? In these days, where obesity is considered a disability by some, who decides what makes differently-able on the race?

Hey now! I am no "disability"  :neener:    My deafness wasn't a big problem for me on the Race. Hence, my mom and I finished in Top Four in every leg for entire race! Isn't that pretty impressive?

But under the law, I am labeled as disability. Oh well.

Luke's only disability has something to do with a certain Chinese bird...
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Mister RC on February 09, 2010, 05:51:47 PM
Quote
Hey now! I am no "disability"      My deafness wasn't a big problem for me on the Race. Hence, my mom and I finished in Top Four in every leg for entire race! Isn't that pretty impressive?

It most certainly is!  Well, at least I think so, but checking-in 4th-place or better is an accomplishment that has only happened 4 times in AR history (including you and Margie).  In fact, none of the 15 revealed winners have done that.  Some of them maybe had a bump or two on the road, regardless, none of them had a consecutive Top 4 finish throughout the entire race.

With Tammy/Victor, if we were to disregard their near-Philimination, their (other) placement(s) would have been a virtual guarantee of a spot in the Final 3 (they placed 3rd or better in their first two legs and the rest starting with the 4th leg).  Their average probably would have been a lot higher as well!

In comparing Tammy/Victor to the top teams, had their consistent Top 3 spots throughout most of the race factored into Leg 3: They would have been second on the list & only one of two teams with an overall average placement of less than 2.  That's if they checked in 2nd or 3rd; if they had won Leg 3 in their season, they would have surpassed Eric/Jeremy in terms of average overall placement.

Anyway, 12 out of 12 Top 4 finishes is impressive in such a difficult race full of a lot of unexpected segments and game-changing moments!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: DeafRacer on February 09, 2010, 05:59:48 PM
Quote
Hey now! I am no "disability"      My deafness wasn't a big problem for me on the Race. Hence, my mom and I finished in Top Four in every leg for entire race! Isn't that pretty impressive?

It most certainly is!  Well, at least I think so, but checking-in 4th-place or better is an accomplishment that has only happened 4 times in AR history (including you and Margie).  In fact, none of the 15 revealed winners have done that.  Some of them maybe had a bump or two on the road, regardless, none of them had a consecutive Top 4 finish throughout the entire race.

With Tammy/Victor, if we were to disregard their near-Philimination, their (other) placement(s) would have been a virtual guarantee of a spot in the Final 3 (they placed 3rd or better in their first two legs and the rest starting with the 4th leg).  Their average probably would have been a lot higher as well!

Who are other three teams that have done that?  That's the shame that my mom and I didn't win otherwise, we would held a new record!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Mister RC on February 09, 2010, 06:11:43 PM
Others that have done that include Joe/Bill, Kris/Jon, and Eric/Jeremy.  And yeah, it's a shame that you didn't win. For a team to finish strong in the early stages, then mid-race, and then throughout the final segments of the race (where one would be very exhausted) for the win would be a feat that would be rather difficult to match.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: georgiapeach on February 09, 2010, 07:49:46 PM
Let's leave THIS thread for theschnauzers updates and discussion of that technique please.

All that info you are asking for is widely available, if you want to start another thread and ask for help, feel free jtarhead11. I personally find adding labels to teams rather distasteful though, but I see where you are going.

Back to topic please. :)

 :groan:  Georgiapeach, didn't mean to offend, and I'm certainly not trying to "label" anymore than the race already does. I was merely trying to explore some of the inequities in casting.  For example, did you know that, including season 16, only 7 openly gay women have been chosen for the race, while the number of openly gay men is at my count at least 21.  Seems a bit unfair don't you think??  And how many young, Caucasian Barbie and Ken type teams have been on??  Seriously, too many to count, but then America never gets tired of Barbie and Ken.   :lol:

But you're right, I should have started another thread to discuss this so as not to distract from theschnauzers AWESOME statistics skills!   

No worries, I am all in favor of diversity in casting, so if a list will help that, then feel free. 

Just not in theschnauzers pretty thread. :lol:   And :welcome:

And :ot: too...but Luke rocks!!  :yess:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 17, 2010, 02:02:02 PM
Just a quick note.
In past seasons, I would post the current teams' numbers to date periodically once the show got three or four episodes into the season. I'll probably will do that this season. The methodology does provide some insight about how well teams have performed once we reach the middle section of the Race, and often points to likely final three teams at that point.  It's not infallible, due to the luck factor, but it does offer some insights.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 21, 2010, 11:25:27 PM
With all of the bouncing around in the leaderboard for the top 7 teams (and the same-placement consistency of the bottom three teams) this week, I thought I would go ahead and start the weekly mid-season tracking a week early:

Quote
Jet-Cord      2.0000   4/2
Joseph-Heidi       3.5000   7/2
Jeff-Jordan      3.5000   7/2
Monique-Shawne    3.5000   7/2
Carol-Brandy      4.5000   9/2
Brent-Caite       5.5000   11/2
Steve-Allison      5.5000   11/2
Jordan-Daniel       8.0000   16/2
Louie-Michael      9.0000   18/2

Jody-Shannon       10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana       11.0000   11/1

It's almost like having a genuine bell curve; one team floats to the top; most teams bunch more or less in the middle, and the three bottom teams stayed in place.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: mswood on February 21, 2010, 11:58:25 PM
And to put those numbers into perspective for leg #2

Jet & Cord would place in the same group that includes (Joe & Bill, Rob & Brennan, Shola & Doyin, Tara & Will, Rob & Amber (7), Godlewski's and Weaver's, Peter & Sarah and Oswald & Danny (AS).    Only one team in this group won their season.  With only 7 teams averaging a better start, they are Rob & Amber (AS), Kris & Jon, BJ & Tyler, Eric & Jeremy, Tyler & James, Ken & Tina and Tammy & Victor.

Joe & Heidi, Jordan & Jeff, Monique & Shawne would place with  12 other teams (Frank & Margarita, Flo & Zach. Ken & Gerard, Brandon & Nicole, Charla & Mirna (5), Linda & Karen, Jonathan & Victoria, Debbie & Bianca, Nick & Starr, Meghan & Cheyne, Lance & Keri, and Zev & Justin.  28 teams at this stage have a better record.  3 teams at this stage won their season.

Carol & Brandy have the same record at this point as Heather & Eve, Kelly & Jon, Millie & Chuck, Bob & Joyce, Marshall & Lance, Gaghan & Schroader families, Joseph & Monica, Wanda & Desiree, Dustin & Kandice (10), Shana & Jennifer, TK & Rachel.  Only one team with this average won their season.

Brent & Caite and Steve & Allie have the record as Mary & Peach, Reichen & Chip, Alison & Donny, Lori & Bolo, Linz's, Rob & Kimberly, Toni & Dallas, Mark & Michael, Brad & Victoria, Sam & Dan.  Two teams at this stage won their season.

Dan & Jordan share the same record as David & Margaretta, Kim & Leslie, Chip & Kim, Don & Mary Jean, Kellie & Jamie, Charla & Mirna (AS), Marianne & Julia, Ronald & Christina, Brian & Ericka only won team has won at this point.

Louie & Michael have the same record at this point as Peggy & Claire, Kami & Karli, Meredith & Maria, Lyn & Karlynn, David & Mary, Kate & Pat, Maria & Tiffany, and Mika & Canaan.  No one in this group has ever won the race, and only one has made the final three.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 22, 2010, 12:33:32 AM
mswood, personally, I'm waiting another couple of legs or so before comparisons to prior seasons. If you were to look at many of those teams after the second leg, their performance after two legs wouldn't have suggested a top 3 finish, much less a win.

But as I mentioned in my previous post, I haven't seen three bottom teams earn the exact same placements in each of the first two legs before. That's just peculiar.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Zack. on February 22, 2010, 08:19:39 AM
mswood, personally, I'm waiting another couple of legs or so before comparisons to prior seasons. If you were to look at many of those teams after the second leg, their performance after two legs wouldn't have suggested a top 3 finish, much less a win.

But as I mentioned in my previous post, I haven't seen three bottom teams earn the exact same placements in each of the first two legs before. That's just peculiar.

TARAS? Kevin/Drew got 10th/10th, David/Mary got 9th/9th/9th, and Charla/Mirna got 8th/8th/8th.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 22, 2010, 12:21:29 PM
True

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Zack. on February 22, 2010, 09:48:43 PM
If only Charla/Mirna had gotten 8th / 8th / 8th / 8th  :hearts:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on February 23, 2010, 06:00:34 PM
It's a great list. I calculate these myself every season, too (though you put much more thought into it than I do with mine), and they tend to be mostly accurate, but I find there are three flaws with using Finishing Averages to compare teams.  First off, it basically assumes that all casts are created equal, when in fact some races (like 10 and 14) are much stronger than others (like 4 and 15).  Dustin & Kandice had to go up against arguably the two toughest fields in Race history, and excelled against both of them, while Meghan & Cheyne got the benefit of going up against one of the weakest casts ever, and got inflated stats as a result.  A prime example of this is Eric, who, with his original partner, got the lowest Finishing Average of all time on Season 9, only to be, at best, the fifth strongest team on All-Stars (and that's only if you place them over Uchenna & Joyce, which I'm hesitant to do myself).  Yes, he had a new partner who was a weaker racer, but that can't account for everything, not when they were terrible at booking flights.

The second and third flaws kind of go hand in hand, and can be demonstrated with the same example.  Second is that these averages tend to favor teams that start out strong, then fade over the course of the race (like Ken & Tina) over teams that start out slow and get stronger as they go along (Jaime & Cara are a key example), as struggling in early legs tends to produce 8th and 9th place finishes, while struggling later on gives 4th and 5th.  Third, using only Finishing Averages to compare teams is like using only batting averages to compare hitters, it only gives a partial view of what a team did.

These two can both be demonstrated by again using Eric & Danielle on All-Stars, who did win their race, but were probably the worst team to ever win in comparison with the other teams on their season.  They were not in the same league as Dustin & Kandice or Rob & Amber, or even Danny & Oswald.  At best they were in the same league as Charla & Mirna and Uchenna & Joyce, and that's only by disregarding that they made three major airport mistakes that probably should have gotten them eliminated.  However, for now I'm only going to compare them to Charla & Mirna:

11-01 Eric/Danielle    47/13   3.6153
11-03 Charla/Mirna     54/13   4.1538

That right there would make you believe that Eric & Danielle were the better team, when in fact Charla & Mirna beat them in every other major statistical category.  Charla & Mirna won more legs (2-1, even though that one was the final leg), had more Top 2 (4-3) and Top 3 (7-6, this includes the final leg) finishes, and Eric & Danielle had more Bottom 2 finishes (at 5-4, though that doesn't include Charla & Mirna's 3rd place in the finale, as there was no chance for elimination).  The most telling stat, though, is that head to head Charla & Mirna won 7 of the 13 legs.  However, four of those legs were at the very beginning of the season, when the cousins were struggling.  From leg five, on, Charla & Mirna beat Eric & Danielle for seven straight legs (actually, Dustin & Kandice, Charla & Mirna, and Eric & Danielle finished in consecutive order for four straight legs, 8-11).  Even watching the race, without any of these stats, it was easy to see (at least in my mind) that Charla & Mirna were a much better team than Eric & Danielle.

Still, that is one of the few examples where the Finishing Averages doesn't work (at least when comparing teams to others on their own race).  Overall, I only see two other discrepancies, where I would easily rank one team over another despite the Finishing Averages saying otherwise.  That would be Dustin & Kandice being under Tyler & James on Season 10, and Jaime & Cara being under Mel & Mike on Season 14. 
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on February 23, 2010, 06:09:01 PM
Others that have done that include Joe/Bill, Kris/Jon, and Eric/Jeremy.  And yeah, it's a shame that you didn't win. For a team to finish strong in the early stages, then mid-race, and then throughout the final segments of the race (where one would be very exhausted) for the win would be a feat that would be rather difficult to match.

Since we're talking about exclusive clubs, there have been only five teams to go through an entire race without ever being in danger of elimination.  More specifically, without ever finishing in the Bottom 2 on any given leg outside of the Final 3.  Those 5 teams are:

Rob & Brennan*
Frank & Margarita*
Dustin & Kandice (Season 11)
Margie & Luke
Meghan & Cheyne

Rob & Brennan and Frank & Margarita were slightly less impressive, as it was impossible for them to finish below 2nd on the last four legs of the season, the point at which it's easiest fall into the Bottom 2, and that is why the asterisk is present.

The most impressive is probably Dustin & Kandice, who did in on All-Stars, against a group of teams who had raced before.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 23, 2010, 06:30:05 PM
Please read my introductory post. I fully recognize the limits of objective only measurements, but on the other hand, trying to play the adjustment game is a minefield because of the subjective element such a process would entail.

As to your Eric and Danielle example, let me tell a story. From season three through season 14, I played a player prediction game at TWoP. That documented who I picked to finish Final 3 if not win, which is why I mention it. When season 11 came around, I predicted pre-season that Eric and Danielle would win All-Stars. I based it on the fact that Eric was half of the best performing team by objective measure ever (and Eric-Jeremy still are) and my suspicion that like Zach in season three, Eric would have to "carry" Danielle through the season. (Which pretty much was the case.) You don't need twp great Racers to have a potential final three team, you need to have one, though, and the other team member has to listen and follow. (Which pretty much is what Danielle did, and they won.) And I don't share your high opinion of Charla and Mirna. I think Eric was clearly the better Racer than either of them, and I think he proved it on All-Stars.

(To finish the story, I decided after season 14 that I wouldn't play the prediction games any longer because of the spoiler issue with such games. Other players were using spoilers to play, and win, and I decided that wasn't fair to me. So had that site's game continued, I would not have participated last season and this season. And my choices tor last season and this season are in posts at RFF, so there is a record.)

Now if anyone wants to try to come up with some objective mechanism to measure strong cast or whatnot, they're perfectly free to try. I just don't think that it's possible, and while the approach I use isn't infallible, I truly don't believe there's going to be a better way of dealing with the season-to-season variations as to the structure of the Race course or the casts.

As to this:
Quote
The most impressive is probably Dustin & Kandice, who did in on All-Stars, against a group of teams who had raced before.

Dustin and Kandice had also previously raced before All-Stars, and maybe had an advantage since they most recently Raced (compared to the other teams) before All-Stars.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on February 23, 2010, 07:00:25 PM
Please read my introductory post. I fully recognize the limits of objective only measurements, but on the other hand, trying to play the adjustment games is a minefield because of the subjective element such a process would entail.

As to your Eric and Danielle example, let me tell a story. From season three through season 14, I played a player prediction game at TWoP. That documented who I picked to finish Final 3 if not win, which is why I mention it. When season 11 came around, I predicted that Eric and Danielle would win All-Stars. I based it on the fact that Eric was half of the best performing team by objective measure ever (and Eric-Jeremy still are) and my suspicion that like Zach in season three, Eric would have to "carry" Danielle through the season. (Which pretty much was the case.) You don't need twp great Racers to have a potential final three teams, you need to have one, though, and the other teams member has to listen and follow. (Which pretty much is what Danielle did, and they won.) And I don't share your high opinion of Charla and Mirna. I think Eric was clearly the better Racer than either of them, and I think he proved it on All-Stars.

(To finish the story, I decided after season 14 that I wouldn't play the prediction games because of the spoiler issue with such games. Other players were using spoilers to play, and win, and I decided that wasn't fair to me. So had that site's game continued, I would not have paticipated last season and this season. And my choices tor last season and this season are in posts at RFF, so there is a record.)

Now if anyone wants to try to come up with some objective mechanism to measure strong cast or whatnot, they're perfectly free to try. I just don't think that it's possible, and while the approach I use isn't infallible, I truly don't believe there's going to be a better way of dealing with the season-to-season variations as to the structure of the Race course or the casts.

As to this:
Quote
The most impressive is probably Dustin & Kandice, who did in on All-Stars, against a group of teams who had raced before.

Dustin and Kandice had also previously raced before All-Stars, and maybe had an advatnage since they most recently Raced before All-Stars.

I did read the introductory post, and it doesn't change the fact that I was pointing out the obvious flaws that you yourself admitted to exist in your objective list.

And not only were Charla & Mirna a better team than Eric & Danielle, but I would take them over Eric & Jeremy as well.  Charla & Mirna raced against Colin & Christie, Rob & Amber, and Dustin & Kandice, three teams who left no doubt that they were three of the strongest teams to ever run the race, and did well against them, while Eric ran against a cream puff field, against only one other competent team, then struggled against stronger teams on All-Stars.  Charla & Mirna are also responsible for innovating several strategies that many teams use now, with both flight bookings and utilizing the locals, while the only brilliant idea Eric & Jeremy had was to cancel the other teams' cabs, and that would have gotten them penalized if it had worked.

Yeah, I thought highly of Eric prior to All-Stars, and had him finishing second pre-race, but to have picked him to win at mid-race, or even in the Top 4, would have been illogical, as it went against everything he had shown as a racer so far during that season.

The problem with your objective list is that it favors teams who cushioned their stats against weak fields, teams like Eric & Jeremy, BJ & Tyler, Meghan & Cheyne, and Nick & Starr, while punishing teams like Dustin & Kandice and Ronald & Christina, who not only had competition, but both started out slow, and didn't really get going until leg 5 or so.  Despite what your stats say, basic observation says that Eric & Jeremy and Meghan & Cheyne are not unstoppable powerhouses that would dominate any group of teams they were pitted against.  That should be saved for the likes of, I don't know, Colin & Christie, Rob & Amber, and Dustin & Kandice.

Speaking of Dustin & Kandice, the only real competition they have on that list is Margie & Luke, as Rob & Brennan and Frank & Margarita have the aforementioned asterisk, and Meghan & Cheyne were pitted against the most inept group of racers this side of Season 4, a group that had three teams essentially quit the race when they came up against such challenging tasks as going down a waterslide and spelling the word "Franz".
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: georgiapeach on February 23, 2010, 07:11:57 PM
:bigwelcome to RFF almightyblue!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 23, 2010, 11:46:51 PM
I'm not going to belabor my point, but I'm segregating this particular objective methodology from my and anyone else's subjective opinions about who really were the "better" teams. That's a debate that is going to repeat itself every season, and as opinion, there's never going to be unanimous agreement on that labeling. All I have said is that this ranking system is a tool, and I've tried my best to have something that handles the variations in the Race from season to season in a reasonably consistent manner.  I didn't come to that conclusion overnight (after all, I started in season three, and I wasn't satisfied that this approach offers some insights with all the variations created by Bert, Elise and Company until the last couple of seasons.

I also have a thread going about assessing teams in terms of identifiable Racer skills (which I label as "Racer mechanics") and I fully concede that that is a far more subjective approach, but it does offer insights about which teams ought to be able to finish higher over the course of a Race, and how to assess the "flaws" teams may have as Racers. But even there, different people are going to have different views about what those skills are and what skills different teams have.

That said, I wasn't as impressed with Charla and Mirna as Racers in season five or eleven, but that's just my opinion; and I don't think the fact that you view them differently can be used as an argument against the objective approach used in this ranking methodology.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: mswood on February 24, 2010, 12:01:01 AM
I have to seriously disagree about Charla & Mirna.  They raced incredibly poorly (especially in season 11).  Sure they made the final three but many teams that underperform make the final three.

When you break down the episodes and figure out the time to complete the days events Charla & Mirna were consistently one of the slowest teams.

They have two saving graces, that was the ability (on occasion to get help from locals, other times not at all as they can be very abrasive) and the ability to get themselves either good flights or bumped over others on those flights.

They are poor navigators, poor drivers, and didn't perform great on many tasks.

Episode 1:  The only thing Charla & Mirna did superior to Eric & Danielle was getting to the airport.  It took Charla & Mirna 56 minutes longer to finish that leg.

Leg 2:  Early task who knows Charla was given the answer by Mary she never figured it out, so we can't actually judge how they would have done it.  But even equalized at the very next part took them 21 minutes longer to perform the bulk of the days task (which they actually did themselves).

Leg 3:  Remove the advantage Eric & Danielle had with an earlier flight and they still finished the leg an hour faster then Charla & Mirna.

Leg 4:  When erasing flight times (which advantage is still Eric & Dani's) Eric & Danielle still complete the days tasks much faster the Charla & Mirna who handle especially teh first part of the days tasks poorly.  And finish the 2nd half slower then Eric & Danielle as well.

Episode 5.  Equalized by Hours of Operation, Eric & Dani finish the first part of the leg with a considerable lead over Charla & Mirna.  The 2nd half of the leg, thanks primarily to a better choice in detour (where they were behind up to getting to that point) they end up with a lead of probably of about an hour and 15 minutes.  It ended up being a very good leg (after being a very poor leg for Charla & Mirna).

Leg 6.  FLight Hell Part 1,  Now racers disagree on how Charla & Mirna got their tickets, but lets give them the benefit of the doubt.  As for the days tasks, difficult to judge as the only times we have our with the boats (and unless they kept a strict time) then its impossible to say.  If the boats took the same amount of time to travel then the team that actually performed the tasks fastest out of all of them was actual was Eric & Danielle.  But I still say give credit to Charla & Mirna on this one.

Leg 7.  Charla & Mirna ran an incredible poor leg, they took more then 2 hors longer then any team to perform the tasks of the day, Eric & Danielle were 2nd fastest with only Dustin & Kandice who ran a near perfect leg doing better.  It took Charla & Mirna over 3 hours and 30 minutes longer then Eric & Dani to perform that legs tasks.

Leg 8.  Equalized Charla & Mirna finished the leg 6 minutes ahead of Eric & Danielle. A serious point (based on clip footage during the actual episode, not Pit Stop) Eric deliberately took his time to get rid of the Guidos as they were tied together for the intersection (one of the few times you could actively hurt another team within the rules).  It might be crappy sportsmanship, but he did it.

Leg 9.  With a strong move on flights Charla & Mirna got a 2 hour and forty minute lead on all teams, Eric & Danielle suffered a yield of 20 - 30 minutes.  So how long did it take each team to perform the days task?  Charla & Mirna 8 hours ad 44 minutes.  Eric & Danielle 5 hours and 45-55 minutes (depending on the length of the YIeld).  In fact its possible even with a huge lead if it wasn't for the Yield Eric & Danielle could have finished the leg in 2nd place.  

Leg 10.  It actually took both teams an equal amount of time to perform the days tasks.  Thanks to Charla & Mirna jumping over Eric & Danielle who were on the standby list before them they ended the leg faster (they also did this in season 5).

Leg 11.  Starting the leg (from the first tasks) 30 minutes after the first team, getting yielded (again 20-30 minutes) and 30 minute penalty from the previous leg)  Eric & Dani actually performed the days tasks faster then any team (even though they ended 3rd).

Leg 12.  Teams get equalized at the starting point for the days tasks Eric & Dani perform the days tasks 34 minutes faster then Charla & Mirna.

Leg 13.  Thanks to their strength in flights Charla & Mirna get a lead of 50 minutes, that thanks to bunching is cut down to 10 minutes staggered departure.  At the ship task they lose their ten minute lead, Eric & Danielle manage to make that up just on the job before getting to the ship.  They far exceed Charla & Mirna  on the rowing, I would assume they manage to gain another ten on the job back.  They then have another task of driving and walking, diving, swimming and walking and driving back to the airport.  I would assume that Eric & Danielle manage to increase their lead her as well as driving and walking/ running are not Charla & Mirna's strong suit.  It is very, very possible their full lead (from the earlier flight is gone).  The rest of the leg, they end up according to racers about 20 -30 minutes later then Eric & Danielle in getting to the Matt (they also never manage to finish that final task, which I still can't believe teams got to leave without completing).  So no matter how you feel about the episode even with an earlier flight and the full amount of that lead, Eric & Dani would have raced the strongest leg on that leg as well.

There is just no real evidence when either just taking simply things like Pit Stop Placement, taking time to complete the days tasks, ect that Charla & Mirna are even close to Eric & Danielle.  And Eric & Jeremy were a much, much stronger team then Eric & Danielle it's not even close according to the racers themselves.

Now I thank they had more to overcome and that many people like them, but the facts as presented on the show (again those can be in error, but its what we have to work with) don't present them as a strong team.  Except of course in arranging flights (in which they do seem to have very strong skills both in research and persuasion.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 24, 2010, 12:05:19 AM
Oops, Sorry.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Hooky on February 24, 2010, 12:47:04 AM
I agree with mswood. Eric & Danielle may very well have been that season's strongest team (or tied with Dustin & Kandice and Rob & Amber), not counting their truly awful luck. This is why placement is not always a good indicator of racing skill. But what other truly objective measurement do we have?
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Coutzy on February 24, 2010, 02:02:10 AM
I'd like to know the basis for Season 5's field being considered so strong.

Yes, Colin and Christie finished in the top 2 a then-record number of times in a row. But who else did that season have?

Marshall and Lance, who's placements were all over the place until they quit (Note that they may have performed much better had the injury not occured, but we can only speculate)

Charla and Mirna, who argued and fought their way across 4 continents before coming to their end in Africa. They never really wowed me with any of their legs.

Kami and Karli- Enough said  :res:

Linda and Karen- Another team that never really wowed me. They finished either mid-table or towards the back in every leg bar 3. (In fact, apart from these legs, their best finish was 6th in a leg of 9.) They weren't that great, and probably wouldn't be so memorable without Karen's amazing effort on THAT Roadblock.

Brandon and Nicole- They wound up with a handful of good results, and were in the middle so much that I didn't really know they existed until the Fast Forward drama.

Chip and Kim- Perhaps, with Brandon and Nicole, one of the only decent teams in the season.

It should also be noted that Colin performed 8 Roadblocks to Christie's 1.

Basically I'd like to know why Colin and Christy are considered to be so great, but Nick and Starr and Megan and Cheyne are not. Meghan and Cheyne managed to defeat the juggernauts that were Flight Time & Big Easy. And Nick and Starr managed to put together a record string of wins, against Ken and Tina and Toni and Dallas, teams that could have easily won any other season.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: DavidJunior on February 24, 2010, 02:54:14 AM
I agree with Coutzy.  Colin and Christie are good, but the S5 cast, although memorable in many ways, were weak racers

and in my opinion, the fact that horribly incompotent teams like
Kami and Karli
Charla and Mirna
Chip and Kim (you have to admit that they are probably the worst winners in terms of overall performance)
really testifies to how weak this season was

not to mention the fact that the guys literally dragged their team to the finals, with each female of the F3 teams only performing 1 roadblock.
Had the equal Roadblock rule been in place, I think this would've been a totally different season.

Nick and Starr had to defeat 4 if not 5 very competitive, compotent (for the most part) F6 teams to win their season

Meghan and Cheyne faced down 3 powerhouse M/M teams, and another team with some of the best luck on the race to get the $1 million
Heck, if it weren't for that Passport debacle, it probably would've been 4/5 M/M teams with M/C
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Pedaler on February 24, 2010, 12:35:12 PM
Thanks for all your work on this,  theschnauzers.  It's fun looking at these types of objective analyses.  I don't have any major objections about the rankings.  There are always outliers in any set of data but that is to be expected.

When I think of the top racers of all time, I have a hard time including the racers of the last few seaons with the best of the early seasons.  They may be as good as the earlier ones but the Amazing Race has cetainly changed.   The shorter and reduced budget races are to me much easier than those in the earlier seasons.  It's kind of like comparing current Quarterback passing statistics in the NFL to those of a generation before.  Football, like the Amazing Race, has changed.

Anyway, I did enjoy reviewing your list.  Any analysis that shows that Dan and Andrew were by far the worst final 3 team in history is OK with me.  They couldn't even beat out Aaron and Ariane.   :lol3:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: mswood on February 24, 2010, 12:54:56 PM
The thing with these is one we need to all (myself included) remember that the requirements for being a strong team are different each season.

Things like remembering when judging seasons 1-4 that teams with great placement averages had to deal with the possibility of another team getting in first not to superior racing but due to their being a fast forward available in all but the final leg.  One could certainly argue that that really handicaps teams from season 1-4.  Then you have the fact that seasons 1-5 allowed one racer to do (though not all teams did some very much split their tasks and responsibilities during the race) which makes it difficult to compare seasons 6-16 to earlier races.  Then you have seasons 13 and up that for the most part have removed what was one of the biggest factors of the race and that is the ability to drive and navigate long distance through various countries.  Then you have things like the Yield or U-Turn where you can deliberately impede the progress of your fellow racers (something seasons 1-4 didn't have).  Then you have your competitors, and let me say that no season has across the board strong racers, each has usually have 4 - 5 teams that simple suck.  And I think its actually gotten worse.  Look at seasons 13-15.  Those seasons have the most penalties, teams that get eliminated through their own carelessness, and choices that just boggle the mind.  

David Junior on some of your points.

If season 5 had to require the women to do half the tasks, I think it would have ended close to the same.  Christie seemed the most driven of the women (in couples), their were no strong male teams at all (so no worries about that), in fact I think it a lot about that seasons that teams like Kami & Karli (who over all just sucked as racers), Charla & Mirna (who managed some flights well, but also had huge problems), and Linda and Karen (who had drive god bless them, but my god they weren't good racers) lasted so late in the race.  

Nick & Starr didn't face strong competition from many teams.  This was a season that is often considered the idiots seasons.  Toni & Dallas (I loved them) killed themselves, Ken & Tina (a good team), Terence & Sarah (Sorry but they weren't that good, probably due to their inability to work well together), Then you had the idiot Frats (one of the most incompetent teams the race has ever had).

Then you had Meghan & Cheyne and lets face it, we have a season were three teams literally take themselves out of the race (Mika & Canaan, Zev & Justin, The Globetrotters), another team taken out due to the inability to perform either RB (and one of them shouldn't have been that hard), a father/son team that was never that competitive.  That leaves you with Sam & Dan (who were good, but erratic and their ability to work together under pressure was a huge flaw), and Brian & Ericka who truly only made it due to two other teams self destructing (similar to what happen in getting the Frats in the final three of season 13).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Caelestor on February 24, 2010, 02:02:59 PM
I say it's impossible to determine the strongest teams, due to the wild fluctuations in the casts each season.

Furthermore, we have to take into account things like:

Roadblock rule
Taxi Drivers
Airplane Flights
Bunching/HOO
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: DavidJunior on February 24, 2010, 03:26:45 PM
The thing with these is one we need to all (myself included) remember that the requirements for being a strong team are different each season.

Things like remembering when judging seasons 1-4 that teams with great placement averages had to deal with the possibility of another team getting in first not to superior racing but due to their being a fast forward available in all but the final leg.  One could certainly argue that that really handicaps teams from season 1-4.  Then you have the fact that seasons 1-5 allowed one racer to do (though not all teams did some very much split their tasks and responsibilities during the race) which makes it difficult to compare seasons 6-16 to earlier races.  Then you have seasons 13 and up that for the most part have removed what was one of the biggest factors of the race and that is the ability to drive and navigate long distance through various countries.  Then you have things like the Yield or U-Turn where you can deliberately impede the progress of your fellow racers (something seasons 1-4 didn't have).  Then you have your competitors, and let me say that no season has across the board strong racers, each has usually have 4 - 5 teams that simple suck.  And I think its actually gotten worse.  Look at seasons 13-15.  Those seasons have the most penalties, teams that get eliminated through their own carelessness, and choices that just boggle the mind. 

David Junior on some of your points.

If season 5 had to require the women to do half the tasks, I think it would have ended close to the same.  Christie seemed the most driven of the women (in couples), their were no strong male teams at all (so no worries about that), in fact I think it a lot about that seasons that teams like Kami & Karli (who over all just sucked as racers), Charla & Mirna (who managed some flights well, but also had huge problems), and Linda and Karen (who had drive god bless them, but my god they weren't good racers) lasted so late in the race. 

Nick & Starr didn't face strong competition from many teams.  This was a season that is often considered the idiots seasons.  Toni & Dallas (I loved them) killed themselves, Ken & Tina (a good team), Terence & Sarah (Sorry but they weren't that good, probably due to their inability to work well together), Then you had the idiot Frats (one of the most incompetent teams the race has ever had).

Then you had Meghan & Cheyne and lets face it, we have a season were three teams literally take themselves out of the race (Mika & Canaan, Zev & Justin, The Globetrotters), another team taken out due to the inability to perform either RB (and one of them shouldn't have been that hard), a father/son team that was never that competitive.  That leaves you with Sam & Dan (who were good, but erratic and their ability to work together under pressure was a huge flaw), and Brian & Ericka who truly only made it due to two other teams self destructing (similar to what happen in getting the Frats in the final three of season 13).


although you are very right in the fact that in both Seasons 13 and 15, a majority of the teams ENDED with egg on their faces.

the fact that they had better all around races is what I'm looking at.

Season 13: Yes, 3/6 of the F6 teams can easily be considered blundering idiots, but they still raced pretty darn well.
Kelly and Christie - although they were one of the worst teams of all time in reading clues, they were strong, passionate, and in certain cases smart.  They were only eliminated because Kenny/Tina decided to help the weaker Frat Boy team first. (which is a very good race strategy)>
Terence and Sarah - had some communication issues throughout the race, but also had all top 4 finishes (only 1 was 4th), until they went for the FF and landed 5th, which unfortunately for them was last and elimination.
Toni and Dallas - the only mistake Toni ever made was letting Dallas do that last Roadblock, and his mistake was being careless and leaving his fanny pack behind.  They were the only other team outside of Ken/Tina to beat Nick/Starr for a 1st place finish that season, as well.
Andrew and Dan - took the term bumbling idiots to a new level.  But, they did make a steady, consistent climb up the rankings.  And they flourished in their "under the radar", "back of the pack" positioning.  Although they got some amazing luck in the last half of the race, you definitely need some competitive drive to start off near last every leg and still survive to the end.
Ken and Tina - Perceived as the biggest competition for Nick and Starr.  And it definitely showed in their general finishing order.
Yes, the F6 teams basically gave Nick and Starr a free pass to the finish line, but not before giving them some decent competition before tripping all over themselves.

Season 15:
Zev and Justin - had it not been for the Passport blunder, they would've easily have made the F3, and probably would've given Meghan/Cheyne a run for their money.
Maria and Tiffany - an extremely lucky team, who I will proclaim to this day, did not deserve to make it past the first leg.  And I felt they went out in proper fashion.
Gary and Matt - although not the most driven and competitive team, they still were able to keep up with the "big boys" almost all the way to the end, and had they been a bit better with directions (and candelabras  :lol:), team "lucky" wouldn't have been so lucky.  And they were pretty decent competition through the first 2/3 of the race.
Flight Time and Big Easy - although I will be one of the first to admit that Big Easy is one of, if not the, biggest idiot in race history for quitting that simple Roadblock.  But, up until that point, they were BY FAR M/C's biggest competition.
Brian and Ericka - they were very very very lucky throughout the race.  Not the strongest, not the fastest, not the brightest, but they had the grit and determination to keep plugging away each leg.  And they always seemed to pull it out in the end.  And, they probably would've won had it not been for the untimely judging blunder.  Guess their luck ran out right at the end.
Sam and Dan - Bicker, bicker, whine, whine!  That's all they ever did.  But, they were super competitive, strong, quick, and not too dull.  They also, were sneaky and shifty when they needed to be, which is something I feel a good team should have.  Though I HATED them on their season, you can't deny that they were a good team.  (look how many "bickering" couples made it really far in other seasons)
Meghan and Cheyne - although they basically dominated their season, they still had to face some stiff competition throughout, they were just fortunate that, like Nick/Starr, their strongest competition unraveled near the end of the race.

Season 5:
Charla and Mirna - as you have said many a time, the only thing that they were good at was finding flights.  Honestly, if it wasn't for that fact, they probably wouldn't nearly as far as they did.  And on top of that, they went out because of a mistake they made on the thing they were supposedly so good at.
Kami and Karli - if you looked for "dumb blond" in the dictionary, a picture of them would show up.  The only thing that propelled them so far was their fitness and speed.
Linda and Karen - though they had the drive and the spirit, they weren't really that good of a team.  They were spared 7th due to Marshall/Lance injury.  And continued on mainly due to C/M flight problems, and Kami and Karli kicking the suck up a couple notches.
Brandon and Nicole - never really seemed like a factor throughout the race.  They were sorta just there.  And I feel this team would've been out earlier had Nicole actually done something.
Chip and Kim - Another team that didn't stand out too much for me, outside of (from what I remember) the show basically trying to cram them down our throats.  And again, had Kim actually done more than 1 Roadblock, they might not have fared AS well as they did.
Then you had 2 overweight brothers in 7th, a really old dating couple in 8th, another old guy and his daughter in 9th, and then two teams that- at least on paper- should've survived at least the first 3 to 5 legs coming in 10th and 11th respectively.
Colin and Christie basically had this race in the bag from Day 1, at least until their car blew a flat on the last leg.... (terrible luck if you ask me)

for me at least, M/C and N/S had to work throughout their season to make it to the end (which they did with ease), and win.  They were just fortunate in that some of their biggest competition kept shooting themselves in the foot along the way.
all Colin and Christie had to do was wait at the top whilst all the sucky teams fell off the pace, to cruise into the finals and win the million.  and they couldn't even pull that off.

Colin and Christie - strong? No doubt about it.  The strongest team on the race ever? I doubt it.
Nick and Starr - strongest team ever? eh, i felt there were stronger teams than them, but probably would've done just as well in S5
Meghan and Cheyne - I don't think they fit the label as strongest team ever either.  But, they too would've dominated in S5 as well

believe me, I don't think S13 and S15 were even close to the most competitive season ever, by any stretch of the imagination.  But, S5 doesn't pop up in my mind as a race that was full of competition and super strong teams either.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: almightyblue on February 24, 2010, 03:30:54 PM
I have to seriously disagree about Charla & Mirna.  They raced incredibly poorly (especially in season 11).  Sure they made the final three but many teams that underperform make the final three.

When you break down the episodes and figure out the time to complete the days events Charla & Mirna were consistently one of the slowest teams.

They have two saving graces, that was the ability (on occasion to get help from locals, other times not at all as they can be very abrasive) and the ability to get themselves either good flights or bumped over others on those flights.

They are poor navigators, poor drivers, and didn't perform great on many tasks.

There is just no real evidence when either just taking simply things like Pit Stop Placement, taking time to complete the days tasks, ect that Charla & Mirna are even close to Eric & Danielle.  And Eric & Jeremy were a much, much stronger team then Eric & Danielle it's not even close according to the racers themselves.

Now I thank they had more to overcome and that many people like them, but the facts as presented on the show (again those can be in error, but its what we have to work with) don't present them as a strong team.  Except of course in arranging flights (in which they do seem to have very strong skills both in research and persuasion.

Basically, you're dismissing Charla & Mirna's strengths.  Yes, I agree they were never good on Physical tasks, but they made up for that with their travel skills and their ability to get help from the locals.  Against a decently strong team they're dead meat, but they have they ability to constantly beat above average opponents.

And yes, I will admit they ran horribly on the first four legs, but they got much better very quickly, and ran better than Eric & Danielle from that point out.  Yeah, E&D did better on the tasks, but Charla & Mirna killed them in every other aspect of the race, all of which are just as important as doing the actual tasks.  As for Eric & Danielle's "strength", I'll get to that in a moment...

I agree with mswood. Eric & Danielle may very well have been that season's strongest team (or tied with Dustin & Kandice and Rob & Amber), not counting their truly awful luck. This is why placement is not always a good indicator of racing skill. But what other truly objective measurement do we have?

No, just no.  They weren't even close to the same level as Rob & Amber and Dustin & Kandice, and this has to be the first time I've seen anyone ever suggest as much.  A strong team doesn't finish over 12 hours behind the lead team, twice.  A strong team doesn't need the most contrived equalizer in Amazing Race history to catch up to the lead teams.  A strong team doesn't make three critical airport mistakes that should have gotten them eliminated, mistakes such as:

On leg 6, Eric & Danielle get the idea to go up to the airline office instead of waiting for the ticket counter to open up.  Great, only they tell all the other teams their idea, leading to everyone but Bill & Joe and Teri & Ian following them upstairs.  Not so great.  Then, they don't make sure to get themselves at the top of the standby list, allowing all the other teams to jump them on said list, leading to them eventually getting pulled off the plane.

In leg 7, they stumble upon Danny & Oswald and Charla & Mirna in a travel agency, but instead of sticking around to leech information off of these two teams who have been working at booking a flight for hours, one of whom was the best in TAR history at finding faster flights than everyone else, they decide to leave and look on their own.  They make one futile attempt at finding a flight, then give up and take the default one, allowing Dustin & Kandice to lap them.

On leg 10, they miss out on standby tickets on the first flight, so instead of going right to the next counter to secure tickets on the second flight, tickets they had a standby reservation for, they go to exchange money, allowing Charla & Mirna to scoop the tickets right out from under them.  Again, not the mark of a great team.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on February 24, 2010, 03:37:02 PM
I'd like to know the basis for Season 5's field being considered so strong.

Yes, Colin and Christie finished in the top 2 a then-record number of times in a row. But who else did that season have?

Marshall and Lance, who's placements were all over the place until they quit (Note that they may have performed much better had the injury not occured, but we can only speculate)

Charla and Mirna, who argued and fought their way across 4 continents before coming to their end in Africa. They never really wowed me with any of their legs.

Kami and Karli- Enough said  :res:

Linda and Karen- Another team that never really wowed me. They finished either mid-table or towards the back in every leg bar 3. (In fact, apart from these legs, their best finish was 6th in a leg of 9.) They weren't that great, and probably wouldn't be so memorable without Karen's amazing effort on THAT Roadblock.

Brandon and Nicole- They wound up with a handful of good results, and were in the middle so much that I didn't really know they existed until the Fast Forward drama.

Chip and Kim- Perhaps, with Brandon and Nicole, one of the only decent teams in the season.

It should also be noted that Colin performed 8 Roadblocks to Christie's 1.

Basically I'd like to know why Colin and Christy are considered to be so great, but Nick and Starr and Megan and Cheyne are not. Meghan and Cheyne managed to defeat the juggernauts that were Flight Time & Big Easy. And Nick and Starr managed to put together a record string of wins, against Ken and Tina and Toni and Dallas, teams that could have easily won any other season.


Nick and Starr had to defeat 4 if not 5 very competitive, compotent (for the most part) F6 teams to win their season

Meghan and Cheyne faced down 3 powerhouse M/M teams, and another team with some of the best luck on the race to get the $1 million
Heck, if it weren't for that Passport debacle, it probably would've been 4/5 M/M teams with M/C

I don't think Season 5 was all that strong, but it was not much weaker than Seasons 6 or 7 were.  It was an average race, the kind of which you don't get anymore because of the proliferation of the metagame making it so that most of the teams have at least a basic knowledge of the race.

Chip & Kim were a good team, Charla & Mirna are severely underrated, and Brandon & Nicole were decent.  Kami & Karli were horrible, but Linda & Karen had some good legs, and would have been a solid mid-pack team on most other seasons.  The thing is, Colin & Christie aren't considered a great team because of the strength of their competition, but because they utterly dominated said competition, to the tune of winning several legs by more than an hour over the second place team, something that doesn't show by merely looking at a graph.  This is why they get such respect, and even Rob went out of his way to say Colin was the one racer he wanted to go against.

As for the other two teams you mentioned, I never said Nick & Starr were weak, though I do agree with mswood that Season 13 was the "Season of Idiots".  Dandrew did make the Final 3 after all.  Ken & Tina slowly self-destructed after leg four, Terence & Sarah likewise hurt themselves with their arguing, Toni & Dallas were good... until Toni let Dallas hold the fanny pack.  Despite their weak field I would still put Nick & Starr in that top tier of teams, along with the likes of Colin & Christie, Kris & Jon, Rob & Amber, Dustin & Kandice, Tammy & Victor, and Zach, because they so definitively beat their weak field.

Meghan & Cheyne, on the other hand, won because of their weak field.  They never looked all that dominant, and won most of their legs through either pure luck, or all the other teams screwing up.  Put Meghan & Cheyne on Season 14, and they have a hard time even making the Final 3.  And The Globetrotters were not juggernauts.  This was a team that had trouble opening a briefcase, and couldn't unscramble the name "Franz".

And look, just because a team is M/M doesn't make them all that strong.  Discounting Danny & Oswald on All-Stars, as they were a returning team, the last good male team was Tyler & James, back on Season 10.  Nicolas & Donald barely scraped by on Don’s experience having done everything (literally) in his life, Dan & Andrew were… well, Dandrew, Mark & Michael got lost at every opportunity, Mel & Mike fell apart once the other teams got competitive, Mark & Bill and Zev & Justin made stupid mistakes that got them eliminated early, Flight Time & Big Easy couldn't unscramble the word “Franz”, and Dan & Sam were dysfunctional to the point where it was amazing they made it as far as they did. Then this season you have Louie & Michael and Dan & Jordan, who've finished 8th and 9th on the first two legs.  Only Jet & Cord look good so far.

Oh, also:

Chip and Kim (you have to admit that they are probably the worst winners in terms of overall performance)

Actually, I'd say Chris & Alex are the worst team to ever win the race.  They were horrible navigators, had no airport skills, no communication skills, and weren't that smart.  The only reason they got into the Final 3 was because Tara insisted on dragging them there.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: almightyblue on February 24, 2010, 03:38:18 PM
The thing with these is one we need to all (myself included) remember that the requirements for being a strong team are different each season.

Things like remembering when judging seasons 1-4 that teams with great placement averages had to deal with the possibility of another team getting in first not to superior racing but due to their being a fast forward available in all but the final leg.  One could certainly argue that that really handicaps teams from season 1-4.  Then you have the fact that seasons 1-5 allowed one racer to do (though not all teams did some very much split their tasks and responsibilities during the race) which makes it difficult to compare seasons 6-16 to earlier races.  Then you have seasons 13 and up that for the most part have removed what was one of the biggest factors of the race and that is the ability to drive and navigate long distance through various countries.  Then you have things like the Yield or U-Turn where you can deliberately impede the progress of your fellow racers (something seasons 1-4 didn't have).  Then you have your competitors, and let me say that no season has across the board strong racers, each has usually have 4 - 5 teams that simple suck.  And I think its actually gotten worse.  Look at seasons 13-15.  Those seasons have the most penalties, teams that get eliminated through their own carelessness, and choices that just boggle the mind.  


I think what's most relevant was that for the first nine seasons, TAR was a physical game, while for seasons 11 and beyond it's been more of a game of intelligence (when there was intelligence to be had, that is), with 10 being a mix of the two.  It's why you see big, strong teams fizzling out mid-race now, while teams like Nick & Starr and Tammy & Victor dominate.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on February 24, 2010, 03:55:15 PM

for me at least, M/C and N/S had to work throughout their season to make it to the end (which they did with ease), and win.  They were just fortunate in that some of their biggest competition kept shooting themselves in the foot along the way.
all Colin and Christie had to do was wait at the top whilst all the sucky teams fell off the pace, to cruise into the finals and win the million.  and they couldn't even pull that off.

Colin and Christie - strong? No doubt about it.  The strongest team on the race ever? I doubt it.
Nick and Starr - strongest team ever? eh, i felt there were stronger teams than them, but probably would've done just as well in S5
Meghan and Cheyne - I don't think they fit the label as strongest team ever either.  But, they too would've dominated in S5 as well

believe me, I don't think S13 and S15 were even close to the most competitive season ever, by any stretch of the imagination.  But, S5 doesn't pop up in my mind as a race that was full of competition and super strong teams either.

Personally, I think you're a bit too dismissive of Season 5, and far too generous to the teams racing on Seasons 13 and 15, especially 15.  The thing is, Nick & Starr and Meghan & Chenye and whoever else you want to name would not have done just as well in Colin & Christie's place.  This is not because they're weaker teams (which they probably are) but because Colin & Christie pretty much destroyed the metagame that was in place back then, and rebuilt it.  Most of these teams would not do as well as they did without all the strategies that stemmed from what Colin & Christie did back on Season 5.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on February 24, 2010, 04:41:18 PM
The thing with these is one we need to all (myself included) remember that the requirements for being a strong team are different each season.

Things like remembering when judging seasons 1-4 that teams with great placement averages had to deal with the possibility of another team getting in first not to superior racing but due to their being a fast forward available in all but the final leg.  One could certainly argue that that really handicaps teams from season 1-4.  Then you have the fact that seasons 1-5 allowed one racer to do (though not all teams did some very much split their tasks and responsibilities during the race) which makes it difficult to compare seasons 6-16 to earlier races.  Then you have seasons 13 and up that for the most part have removed what was one of the biggest factors of the race and that is the ability to drive and navigate long distance through various countries.  Then you have things like the Yield or U-Turn where you can deliberately impede the progress of your fellow racers (something seasons 1-4 didn't have).  Then you have your competitors, and let me say that no season has across the board strong racers, each has usually have 4 - 5 teams that simple suck.  And I think its actually gotten worse.  Look at seasons 13-15.  Those seasons have the most penalties, teams that get eliminated through their own carelessness, and choices that just boggle the mind. 


I think what's most relevant was that for the first nine seasons, TAR was a physical game, while for seasons 11 and beyond it's been more of a game of intelligence (when there was intelligence to be had, that is), with 10 being a mix of the two.  It's why you see big, strong teams fizzling out mid-race now, while teams like Nick & Starr and Tammy & Victor dominate.
Actually most people considered the latter seasons (minus the final task) to be dumbed down version of the race.  With teams being spoon feed more information on what needs to get done then previous years.  The one primary difference has been the increased use of the final task being more mental then physical.  And the race for the most part isn't strength based, endurance based sure, but that is completely different from physical strength.  It is also something that has been lessoned now that the race is typically 6 -7 days shorter then it was with seasons 1 -11.   
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: DavidJunior on February 24, 2010, 04:51:38 PM
i'm just saying we really can't consider a team as not competitive just because they were eliminated due to a dumb mistake.

That's like saying Bode Miller or Lindsey Vonn aren't strong skiiers because they beefed it on the Giant Slalom.

People are human, they make mistakes.  These teams were just unfortunate to make them on the race.

i just feel S5 had a pretty week field.  There were at least 5 teams I felt could've came in last in almost every other season, that at least made the first couple of legs this particular season.

so yeah, Colin and Christie destoryed the other teams, but how many of those teams were legitimate competition?  1 or 2 in the F6?
as opposed to the other 2? 3-4 teams.

and other seasons even more so.

again, i don't feel any of these are the epiomy of competition

i just don't get why people think S13 and S15 were horrible, but think S5 was the greatest thing on the planet in terms of teams

i say they fit somewhere in the middle, closer to the bottom
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Zack. on February 24, 2010, 05:48:41 PM
Quote
No, just no.  They weren't even close to the same level as Rob & Amber and Dustin & Kandice, and this has to be the first time I've seen anyone ever suggest as much.  A strong team doesn't finish over 12 hours behind the lead team, twice.  A strong team doesn't need the most contrived equalizer in Amazing Race history to catch up to the lead teams.  A strong team doesn't make three critical airport mistakes that should have gotten them eliminated, mistakes such as:

I have to disagree here. While I dislike Eric/Danielle, I can't fault them for the unpredictability of flights during the Hajj, or for the order in which racers getting on or off standby. Moreover, both Kevin/Drew and Bill/Joe ended up at least 12 hours behind Rob/Brennan and Frank/Margarita in Beijing - would you not say they were strong teams?
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: mswood on February 24, 2010, 07:08:55 PM
Almightblue

First, I would never call Eric & Danielle a great team, but yeah they raced better then Charla & Mirna.  I don't discount that teams strength (I even stated it being their ability to either find flights, or to use their attitude to push their way above other teams which they have done in more then one season) and their ability (at times because they can be very grating) to get help from others (though again this can also hurt them, just look at the first episode to see a great example of this).

But look at what happens during this season and judge who performed smarter and better.

Who is better at navigation?  
WHo is better at driving?
Who is better on foot getting from point A to point B?
Out of all the tasks performed who is better?
Who is better with Flights?
Who is better with ferns?

Clearly the first four are easily on Eric & Danielle's side, not just through the first four episode but through the full race.

The flight issue I also give to Charla & Mirna (though comments below because they also had problems and some of what happened was very much luck and not based off of statistical patterns of the show).

Then we have getting help from ferns,  And this well we certainly see Charla & Mirna employee locals for a lot of help.  But how successful was this.  In fact rarely was this a factor for good for this team (well maybe better then what they would have done on their own, but still not good).  The one exception is according to IZAD (who followed this team from Baku caves to the entrance of the Pit Stop and helped Charla with the bike roadblock) it had some value, but they still took hours longer to complete each and every part of that leg then any other team.  And thats with a lot of local help.  Eric & Danielle on the other hand rarely sought help from locals besides the typical directions (which they already did better then Charla & Mirna to begin with).

Its very clear that the majority of all the aspects of the race, Eric & Danielle did better.  

Remove the issue of three of the flights and honestly tell me that Charla & Mirna performed stronger?  And if you rationally cant then you can't say that tasks were the only thing Eric & Danielle did better.

On the flight issue.  The first two flight issues were not based on errors.  Statistically Eric & Danielle made the correct choices.  

Charla & Mirna (first major flight issue) gambled on flying to a location where not only did they not have tickets, but they weren't on standby.  That was a huge gamble and not something that historically is successful on the race (They even state its a big risk).  In fact look at Season four to see this example of racing go horrible wrong for a team.  That worked out was luck.  Just three episodes earlier they weren't able to get standby, so they know that even with a film crew they aren't always going to be successful.  On the standby list (later same episode) we can't actually judge.  Since we don't see or hear the order they are put on standby, we don't know if it matches the order listed later in the next country (and just from my own experience plus watching this show it doesn't always).  Historically all the teams (including Teri & Ian and the Guidos made a much safer and rational choice.

The next airport issue.  In the shows history how many times have the scheduled connecting flights provided not been meet?  Out of over 200 plus flights?   Well the answer is none.  Now teams have chosen to take alternate routes themselves and lost connections, but never one set up by production.  Never.  You think it was a mistake for Eric & Danielle to try another travel agent.  Yet  they knew those 4 teams had been there (when they arrived by a clock on the wall and closely matching dialogue) 7 hours and 10 minutes, and managed to find nothing.  Yes 20 minutes later seats did open up on an earlier flight, but you are assuming those same seats wouldn't show up at the other agency.   Or that somehow Eric & Danielle might have been able to book those seats at that same agency faster then Charla & Mirna group (as that group is now using both agents).  I mean logically how is their choice wrong?  Do they see these teams having any success?  Nope no at all, in fact the length of time that they tried is staggering.  Is there a logical reason not to try another agency?  No, not with the information they have.  And worse comes to worse they have the up to this point 100% reliable arranged flight and connections.  There is no logical reason to suspect their arranged flights would not work out.  And curiously since that date, we have yet to see it happen again.  Teams can't know what will occur.  Its like saying Eric & Dani should have taken that flight that arrived at 3:10pm in Warsaw (4 hours after the arranged flight) because they should have known their flight wouldn't work out.   With the arranged flight they would have finished 3rd.  There was no logical way to rationalize that staying there would have been better for them.  

The final flight problem, yeah while its a minor error (as teams aren't often pushed in front of other teams it has happened in the race's history so it was based on history a possibility).  And that was the only flight issue that they truly had even marginal control over.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on February 24, 2010, 08:04:24 PM
I have to say that I think some of the recent discussion might have been better placed in the Racer mechanics threads because a lot of has to do with the teams' skill set, or even specific skills in specific circumstances. But that's just my humble opinion, YMMV.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 01, 2010, 01:01:28 AM
Here's the leader board after leg 3:

Jet-Cord   1.6666   5/3..........(2.0000)
Joseph-Heidi    3.6666   11/3..........(3.5000)
Jeff-Jordan   4.0000   12/3..........(3.5000)
Carol-Brandy   4.0000   12/3..........(4.5000)
Steve-Allison   4.3333   13/3..........(5.5000)
Brent-Caite    6.0000   18/3..........(5.5000)
Jordan-Daniel    7.3333   22/3..........(8.0000)
Louie-Michael   8.6666   26/3..........(9.0000)

Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3..........(3.5000)
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: DavidJunior on March 01, 2010, 04:20:48 PM
how did Louie and Michael jump up so far when they got 8th?

this after getting 9th on leg 1 and 2?
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: chill_sd on March 01, 2010, 04:27:54 PM
how did Louie and Michael jump up so far when they got 8th?

this after getting 9th on leg 1 and 2?

That's an arithmetic mistake.  26/3 = 8.6667
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 01, 2010, 06:20:52 PM
I'll fix it. Thanks.

That's what happens when you try to watch the Closing Ceremonies and Cold Case at the same time.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on March 05, 2010, 04:17:39 AM
Actually most people considered the latter seasons (minus the final task) to be dumbed down version of the race.  With teams being spoon feed more information on what needs to get done then previous years.  The one primary difference has been the increased use of the final task being more mental then physical.  And the race for the most part isn't strength based, endurance based sure, but that is completely different from physical strength.  It is also something that has been lessoned now that the race is typically 6 -7 days shorter then it was with seasons 1 -11.   

Most people would be ignoring the fact that other than the "vague clues" teams received on Seasons 1-4 (clues that never fooled anyone), the tasks were overall much easier than they are now.  The Detours themselves should prove this.  I can't be the only one whose noticed that they no longer give the short and scary/long and safe choice anymore, and that teams actually have to work at most Detours now instead of getting to do quick thrill tasks six or seven times a season.  You take teams with current strategical knowledge and have them run the first four courses as they were, people would be complaining about the lack of challenge.

And as far as I can tell, Season 10 is still considered the hardest course.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: almightyblue on March 05, 2010, 04:23:38 AM
I have to disagree here. While I dislike Eric/Danielle, I can't fault them for the unpredictability of flights during the Hajj, or for the order in which racers getting on or off standby. Moreover, both Kevin/Drew and Bill/Joe ended up at least 12 hours behind Rob/Brennan and Frank/Margarita in Beijing - would you not say they were strong teams?

Yes, I would consider Kevin & Drew a weak team, and Bill & Joe were only strong in context that on the first season none of the teams knew what they were doing.  Both these teams struggled on All-Stars for a reason.  What made Bill & Joe so strong was their strategic advantage over the other teams, an advantage they didn't have racing against the likes of Rob & Amber and Danny & Oswald, who had created their own strategies that far surpassed anything Bill & Joe had created.

But in comparison to the other teams on their season, no Bill & Joe and Kevin & Drew weren't that weak, it was the poor course planning at the tail end of Season 1 that pushed them that far back.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginn
Post by: almightyblue on March 05, 2010, 04:41:43 AM
Almightblue

First, I would never call Eric & Danielle a great team, but yeah they raced better then Charla & Mirna.  I don't discount that teams strength (I even stated it being their ability to either find flights, or to use their attitude to push their way above other teams which they have done in more then one season) and their ability (at times because they can be very grating) to get help from others (though again this can also hurt them, just look at the first episode to see a great example of this).

But look at what happens during this season and judge who performed smarter and better.

Who is better at navigation?  
WHo is better at driving?
Who is better on foot getting from point A to point B?
Out of all the tasks performed who is better?
Who is better with Flights?
Who is better with ferns?

Clearly the first four are easily on Eric & Danielle's side, not just through the first four episode but through the full race.

The flight issue I also give to Charla & Mirna (though comments below because they also had problems and some of what happened was very much luck and not based off of statistical patterns of the show).

Then we have getting help from ferns,  And this well we certainly see Charla & Mirna employee locals for a lot of help.  But how successful was this.  In fact rarely was this a factor for good for this team (well maybe better then what they would have done on their own, but still not good).  The one exception is according to IZAD (who followed this team from Baku caves to the entrance of the Pit Stop and helped Charla with the bike roadblock) it had some value, but they still took hours longer to complete each and every part of that leg then any other team.  And thats with a lot of local help.  Eric & Danielle on the other hand rarely sought help from locals besides the typical directions (which they already did better then Charla & Mirna to begin with).

Its very clear that the majority of all the aspects of the race, Eric & Danielle did better.  

Remove the issue of three of the flights and honestly tell me that Charla & Mirna performed stronger?  And if you rationally cant then you can't say that tasks were the only thing Eric & Danielle did better.

On the flight issue.  The first two flight issues were not based on errors.  Statistically Eric & Danielle made the correct choices.  

Charla & Mirna (first major flight issue) gambled on flying to a location where not only did they not have tickets, but they weren't on standby.  That was a huge gamble and not something that historically is successful on the race (They even state its a big risk).  In fact look at Season four to see this example of racing go horrible wrong for a team.  That worked out was luck.  Just three episodes earlier they weren't able to get standby, so they know that even with a film crew they aren't always going to be successful.  On the standby list (later same episode) we can't actually judge.  Since we don't see or hear the order they are put on standby, we don't know if it matches the order listed later in the next country (and just from my own experience plus watching this show it doesn't always).  Historically all the teams (including Teri & Ian and the Guidos made a much safer and rational choice.

The next airport issue.  In the shows history how many times have the scheduled connecting flights provided not been meet?  Out of over 200 plus flights?   Well the answer is none.  Now teams have chosen to take alternate routes themselves and lost connections, but never one set up by production.  Never.  You think it was a mistake for Eric & Danielle to try another travel agent.  Yet  they knew those 4 teams had been there (when they arrived by a clock on the wall and closely matching dialogue) 7 hours and 10 minutes, and managed to find nothing.  Yes 20 minutes later seats did open up on an earlier flight, but you are assuming those same seats wouldn't show up at the other agency.   Or that somehow Eric & Danielle might have been able to book those seats at that same agency faster then Charla & Mirna group (as that group is now using both agents).  I mean logically how is their choice wrong?  Do they see these teams having any success?  Nope no at all, in fact the length of time that they tried is staggering.  Is there a logical reason not to try another agency?  No, not with the information they have.  And worse comes to worse they have the up to this point 100% reliable arranged flight and connections.  There is no logical reason to suspect their arranged flights would not work out.  And curiously since that date, we have yet to see it happen again.  Teams can't know what will occur.  Its like saying Eric & Dani should have taken that flight that arrived at 3:10pm in Warsaw (4 hours after the arranged flight) because they should have known their flight wouldn't work out.   With the arranged flight they would have finished 3rd.  There was no logical way to rationalize that staying there would have been better for them.  

The final flight problem, yeah while its a minor error (as teams aren't often pushed in front of other teams it has happened in the race's history so it was based on history a possibility).  And that was the only flight issue that they truly had even marginal control over.


You're forgetting that Charla & Mirna also had an Intelligence advantage, plus they fought less (if only slightly), which makes the argument a push.  It really doesn't matter though as it only determines who was the 4th or 5th strongest team on the season (as I doubt either team's ability to consistently beat Uchenna & Joyce, you know, had they not made an airport mistake worse than any Eric & Danielle made).  I would rank both teams as above average.  Then again, being above average is usually good enough to give a team a good chance of getting into the Final 3, it's just that considering their competition, neither should have made it there.

And no, I'm not condoning the choice Charla & Mirna made on leg 6, it was a risk, but those risks were the only things keeping them in the race.  As for Eric & Danielle, they did not make the wrong choice, they made a mistake by allowing all the other teams to jump them on the standby list.  It can't be a coincidence that the tickets were issued in reverse order that the teams put their names on said list.

As for leg 7, it was a mistake to leave that flight agency, especially for a team like that.  I mean, after leaving the agency, they made one attempt (that aired) to find better tickets, then just gave up and took what was given to them.  Had they stayed with Charla & Mirna and Danny & Oswald, the worst case scenario would have put them on their given flight with two other teams, one of whom they had a clear physical advantage over.  So statistically, they were better off staying where they were.  There's only a handful of teams I would have condoned leaving that travel agency to look for their own tickets (Charla & Mirna, Colin & Christie, Tara & Wil, Rob & Amber, Ronald & Christina, maybe a few others).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Benedicto on March 05, 2010, 05:17:14 AM
I would rank Charla & Mirna higher because they're much more Entertaining

Entertainment Value > Physical/Mental  :lol3:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on March 05, 2010, 06:58:13 PM
I don't believe that searching for a location in the middle of the desert, by looking for yellow stones as your guide, is that easy.

I didn't even root for Rob & Brennan way back then, but I believe that they are the best of the best of the winners.  I don't think any other winners even come close to their combination of intelligence, smarts, physical strength, and athleticism.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 07, 2010, 10:22:10 PM
Now we can see trends in the placements:

Team      This Week   Last Week   Week 2      Trend
Jet-Cord      2.2500   9/4   (1.6666)   (2.0000)   Stable
Joseph-Heidi    3.5000   14/4   (3.6666)   (3.5000)   Stable
Carol-Brandy   4.2500   17/4   (4.0000)   (4.5000)   Stable
Steve-Allison   4.7500   15/4   (4.3333)   (5.5000)   Stable
Jeff-Jordan   5.0000   20/4   (4.0000)   (3.5000)   Dropping Sharply
Brent-Caite    6.2500   25/4   (6.0000)   (5.5000)   Dropping
Louie-Michael   6.7500   27/4   (8.3333)   (9.0000)   Rising Sharply
Jordan-Daniel    7.0000   28/4   (7.3333)   (8.0000)   Rising

Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 14, 2010, 09:38:03 PM
Quote
Team      This Week   Week 4      Week 3      Week 2      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.4000   12/5   2.2500   9/4   (1.6666)   (2.0000)   Stable
Steve-Allison   3.4000   17/5   4.7500   15/4   (4.3333)   (5.5000)   Rising
Carol-Brandy   4.4000   22/5   4.2500   17/4   (4.0000)   (4.5000)   Stable
Jeff-Jordan   5.4000   27/5   5.0000   20/4   (4.0000)   (3.5000)   Dropping
Louie-Michael   5.6000   28/5   6.7500   27/4   (8.3333)   (9.0000)   Rising Sharply

Brent-Caite    6.2000   31/5   6.2500   25/4   (6.0000)   (5.5000)   Dropping Slowly
Jordan-Daniel    6.4000   32/5   7.0000   28/4   (7.3333)   (8.0000)   Rising

Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1

A lot of movement this week due to Heidi and Joe's meltdown at the U-Turn. Teams are pretty evenly spaced now as the lowest teams have climbed up, and Jet-Cord have been pulled back a little from the stratosphere.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on March 14, 2010, 10:02:37 PM
If the spoils are correct this has to be the worst (based on performance to date) set of final four in race history.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Dånooky on March 14, 2010, 10:18:10 PM
If the spoils are correct this has to be the worst (based on performance to date) set of final four in race history.
Maybe they'll redeem themselves later, like Louie & Mike are doing right now.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on March 14, 2010, 10:27:06 PM
If the spoils are correct this has to be the worst (based on performance to date) set of final four in race history.
[/quote}
Maybe they'll redeem themselves later, like Louie & Mike are doing right now.
Sure Louie & Michael have two wins, but that really doesn't help us judge this current episode.  This being only the 5th (or is it now 6th) episode of TAR history without some form of equalizer it makes it difficult for them not to win this leg.  To truly judge the performance we need departure times next week to compare against starting times this week to really judge how ell they've done (though clearly they have done better).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 14, 2010, 10:41:59 PM
The current leg was a bit odd -- except for the U-Turn there really wasn't much opportunity for any team to shift their placement order, although Heidi and Joe's big fall moved most of the teams up a spot.
This leg was like having a yellow flag out for virtually the entire leg -- no chance for movement except for the race cars demolished on the track.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on March 14, 2010, 11:04:02 PM
They've had them before, and it with the performance of teams last week leaving the field rather far apart it did leave little room for improvement.  A little lift there, a little fall there.  Thats why I hope (and with this season who knows) we get departure times to give us a better idea of how teams actually performed.

I like to compare this to the Mika & Canaan meltdown episode last year.  In that episode (thanks to the fast forward on the previous leg) Meghan & Cheyne got first.  Yet when you actually look at the time it took to complete they were actually fourth a rather huge difference.

This leg actually really reminded me of leg 4 in season 12.  As it also was a leg with no equalizers and it also featured the very first U-Turn.  Unlike this season it was used for pure strategy, we aren't doing great we know one team is behind us lets use it on them.  Lorena & Jason being nearly two hours back had no chance.  I was honestly surprised that this wasn't used on Jordan and Jeff as a way to really sink them.  As it stands I can't believe that with over a two hour difference (from the start) an extra task and their inability to get from point A to B that Joe and Heidi could not make up that in one Detour.  I mean seriously this had to take Joe & Heidi at least 3 to 4 hours (at least before getting Phil).  Just an insane amount of time to complete a task. (and they didn't do that).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: georgiapeach on March 15, 2010, 11:20:25 PM
Careful here about spoilers...this is a discussion thread. :kuss:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 22, 2010, 02:00:03 PM
Team      This Week   Week 5      Week 4      Week 3      Week 2      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.6666   16/6   2.4000   12/5   (2.2500)   (1.6666)   (2.0000)   Stable
Steve-Allison   3.3333   20/6   3.4000   17/5   (4.7500)   (4.3333)   (5.5000)   Stable
Carol-Brandy   4.0000   24/6   4.4000   22/5   (4.2500)   (4.0000)   (4.5000)   Stable
Louie-Michael   4.8333   29/6   5.6000   28/5   (6.7500)   (8.3333)   (9.0000)   Rising Sharply
Brent-Caite    6.1666   37/6   6.2000   31/5   (6.2500)   (6.0000)   (5.5000)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    6.1666   37/6   6.4000   32/5   (7.0000)   (7.3333)   (8.0000)   Rising

Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1

The six remaining teams stayed in the same order as last week, and with Jeff-Jordan's elimination in France, the teams are fairly evenly spaced, except for the equal score for Brent-Caite and Dan-Jordan. The rise for Louie-Michael may be less impressive than it looks. Their lead leaving the pit stop wasn't that large, and they had problems with the tasks that offset their speed in navigation. Carol-Brandy also had very few problems in navigation, and fewer problems in the tasks. Steve-Allie lost some time due to the damaged bumper, and I'll bet that they didn't lose more than 15 minutes due to the duct tape. Jet-Cord had their navigation problems because they waited too long to check for the winery location, but they are quick to recover though. And there isn't much question any longer that the two of them are very efficient with tasks. Needle0in-a-haystack are not a problem. I'll bet they won't assume they know where a riddled location is after this week. (I love the fact that this week's clues mostly required teams to ask locals for assistance over and over and over.)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on March 24, 2010, 07:10:39 PM
Thanks for your calculations, theschnauzers.

I just wanted to add my own best-case scenario projections.

Projected average placement for each team if that team ends up running the table on a 12-leg race:

No team in TAR16 will beat Eric & Jeremy's performance.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on March 25, 2010, 06:26:14 PM
theschnauzers, I noticed that Gary/Matt are listed as 15-04 instead of 15-05.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 25, 2010, 08:59:59 PM
Quote
theschnauzers, I noticed that Gary/Matt are listed as 15-04 instead of 15-05.
Fixed.
Quote
Projected average placement for each team if that team ends up running the table on a 12-leg race:

I think it's more useful to look at the range from the best possible average to the worse possible average and still complete the Race (all 12 legs).

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 6 placement points for 6 remaining legs, and 26 placement points for worse possible performance is (6-5-5-4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and three more eliminations, 2 NELs and final leg)

Jet-Cord   2.6666   16/6
      22/12-42/12
Predicted range (1.8333 to 3.6666) Note if J-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.5000.

Steve-Allison   3.3333   20/6
      26/12-46/12
Predicted range (2.1666 to 3.8333) Note if S-A were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.6666.

Carol-Brandy   4.0000   24/6
      30/12-50/12
Predicted range (2.5000 to 4.1666) Note if C-B were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.0000.

Louie-Michael   4.8333   29/6
      35/12-55/12
Predicted range (2.9166 to 4.5833) Note if L-M were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166

Brent-Caite    6.1666   37/6
      43/12-63/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if B-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833

Jordan-Daniel    6.1666   37/6
      43/12-63/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if J-Dwere to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833


What this tells us:
Although Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite are just below the worst previous final three performance “threshold.” but only by .06 of a placement value, all of the remaining teams have a statistical chance of making final three.
Based on the past trends, all of the teams have at least a slight chance of winning....but Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite have the least chance.... but it's close to no chance.

Jet-Cord have the best chance of winning, and they’re just this close to becoming prohibitive favorites, based on the trend from past seasons. While they can’t surpass Eric-Jeremy, they still can become the second best performing team, (TAR 15 winners Meghan-Cheyne were 2.0000.)

Thanks for the distraction. (My schnauzer unexpectedly took ill Tuesday night last week and then, passed away last Thursday morning with no warning, and it's been a very difficult week. I need to find and adopt another schnauzer (as they've been companions and service animals for me for 30 years, and this week is the first time in that time I haven't had one with me.)


Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: georgiapeach on March 25, 2010, 10:02:10 PM
I am so, so sorry about your schnauzer. Pets are family, and leave a huge hole in our lives when they go. Please know you have our sympathy for your loss.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on March 25, 2010, 10:21:08 PM
You have my deepest sympathies.

I was adding up the average placements for each season's final 4 by using your numbers and Uchenna & Joyce appear twice for TAR7.
      
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce     35/12   2.9166
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce    41/13   3.1538

Here are my calculations for the sum of the average placements of each season's final 4, based on numbers by theschnauzers, in order from lowest-total to highest-total:

I just added them all up.

01-01 Rob/Brennan        32/13   2.4615
01-02 Frank/Margarita      31/13   2.3846
01-03 Joe/Bill         36/13   2.7692
01-04 Kevin/Drew         37/11   3.3636
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 10.9789

09-01 BJ/Tyler      32/13   2.4615
09-02 Eric/Jeremy   22/13   1.6923
09-03 Ray/Yolanda   55/13   4.2307
09-04 Joseph/Monica   42/11   3.8181
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.2027

15-01 Meghan/Cheyne   24/12   2.0000
15-02 Sam/Dan      38/12   3.1666
15-03 Brian/Ericka   51/12   4.2500
15-04 Flight Time/Big Easy   34/11   3.0909
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.5075

08-01 Linz         31/11   2.8181
08-02 Bransen      35/11   3.1818
08-03 Weaver      36/11   3.2727
08-04 Godlewski      37/10   3.7000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.9727

03-01 Flo/Zach         35/13   2.6923
03-02 Teri/Ian         59/13   4.5384
03-03 Ken/Gerard         35/13   2.6923
03-04 Derek/Drew         34/11   3.0909
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.0139

14-01 Tammy/Victor   27/12   2.2500
14-02 Cara/Jaime      47/12   3.9166
14-03 Margie/Luke   33/12   2.7500
14-04 Kisha/Jen      47/11   4.2727
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.1893

05-01 Chip/Kim         44/13   3.3846
05-02 Colin/Christie      32/13   2.4615
05-03 Brandon/Nicole      43/13   3.3076
05-04 Linda/Karen        50/12   4.1666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3204

11-01 Eric/Danielle    47/13   3.6153
11-02 Dustin/Kandice     38/13   2.9230
11-03 Charla/Mirna     54/13   4.1538
11-04 Oswald/Danny      32/12   2.6666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3589

13-01 Nick/Starr      27/11   2.4545
13-02 Ken/Tina      29/11   2.6363
13-03 Andrew/Dan   57/11   5.1818  
13-04 Toni/Dallas      31/10   3.1000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3727

06-01 Freddy/Kendra      45/13   3.4615
06-02 Kris/Jon        31/13   2.3846
06-03 Adam/Rebecca       61/13   4.6923
06-04 Hayden/Aaron      35/12   2.9166
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.4550

10-01 Tyler/James    31/13   2.3846
10-02 Rob/Kimberly   39/13   3.0000
10-03 Lyn/Karlyn      65/13   5.0000
10-04 Dustin/Kandice     38/12    3.1666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.5512

02-01 Chris/Alex         44/13   3.3846
02-02 Tara/Wil         33/13   2.5384
02-03 Blake/Paige        48/13   3.6923
02-04 Oswald/Danny       44/11   4.0000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.6153

07-01 Uchenna/Joyce    41/13   3.1538
07-02 Rob/Amber    30/13   2.3076
07-03 Ron/Kelly       39/13   3.0000
07-04 Meredith/Gretchen     59/11   5.3636
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.8251

12-01 Rachel/TK       35/11   3.1818
12-02 Ronald/Christina    38/11   3.4545
12-03 Nicolas/Donald   46/11   4.1818
12-04 Jennifer/Nathan   37/10   3.7000  
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 14.5181

04-01 Reichen/Chip      40/13   3.0769
04-02 Kelly/Jon         50/13   3.8461
04-03 David/Jeff         52/13   4.0000
04-04 Jon/Al              41/11   3.7272
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 14.6502


I'll add the sums for each season's final 3 next.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 25, 2010, 10:48:48 PM
Quote
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce     35/12   2.9166
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce    41/13   3.1538

The set with 13 legs would be correct, I must have missed the 12 leg one when I fixed the list some weeks ago.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on March 25, 2010, 10:56:12 PM
...
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 26, 2010, 02:00:10 PM
I'm not exactly sure what the point of adding up the final three or four teams is supposed to demonstrate. One point to consider is that the higher the total is for a top three or four grouping, it could mean a more competitive group with no one or two dominating teams, or that on the other hand, the group is not as strong as another season's final three or four. The total doesn't really show one interpretation or the other, it's at that point the issue becomes a subjective one. If there's something I'm missing in this please tell us.

Oh, and on the subject of fast forwards, those aren't likely to have much of an impact for two different reasons, as I see it. In the early seasons, there was a point before the final three, or four, when all the remaining teams ended up having used the fast forwards, and thus, neutralized their impact. It was rare for a team not to claim first place on a FF (especially the Guidos spectacular fumble in season one) in the early seasons when the FF was available on all but the final leg. When the FF availability was reduced, to one or two a season, then while one team might have save a few placement points over where they might have otherwise placed, it no longer got used as a general rule by trailing teams, but by teams in the lead, if at all. That likewise had a minor impact on season-wide placement averages. While the precise average was affected, it certainly didn't affect relative placements in a broad sense.

And I'll note that over the history of the Race, about half of all available FFs were not claimed; and that's true of the early seasons (1-4) and the more recent seasons since then as well.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on March 26, 2010, 05:51:50 PM
I decided to add up the final 3 and final 4 just to see what the results would be.

I agree that they don't provide much objective information.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: TARAsia Fan on March 27, 2010, 04:00:26 PM
So sorry for your loss, theschnauzers. Losing a beloved pet who's been part of the family is never easy.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: mswood on March 27, 2010, 05:36:33 PM
My sympathy's my dogs are a huge part of my family.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 29, 2010, 08:12:03 PM
Here's the trends for week 7:

Team      This Week         Week 6      Week 5      Week 4      Trend
Jet-Cord   3.1428   22/7   (2.6666)      (2.4000)      (2.2500)   Falling
Steve-Allison   3.0000   21/7      (3.3333)      (3.4000)      (4.7500)   Rising
Carol-Brandy   4.1428   29/7   (4.0000)      (4.4000)      (4.2500)   Stable
Louie-Michael   4.7142   33/7   (4.8333)      (5.6000)      (6.7500)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    5.5714   39/7   (6.1666)      (6.4000)      (7.0000)   Rising
Brent-Caite    5.7142   40/7   (6.1666)      (6.2000)      (6.2500)   Rising Slowly


Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Caelestor on March 29, 2010, 08:57:45 PM
Dan/Jordan are becoming more competent every week.  :tup:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Hooky on March 30, 2010, 01:09:59 PM
Steve & Allie are now the strongest team by average placing! But there isn't really a dominant team this season. :wohoo:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on March 31, 2010, 12:12:56 AM
Here's an updated projection of final placement ranges for the teams after leg 7:

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 5 placement points for 5 remaining legs, and 20 placement points for worse possible performance is (5-5-4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and three more eliminations, 1 NEL and final leg)

Jet-Cord   3.1428   22/7
      27/12-42/12
Predicted range (2.2500 to 3.5000)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.3333.

Steve-Allison   3.0000   21/7
      26/12-41/12
Predicted range (2.1666 to 3.4133)
Note if S-A were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.2500.

Carol-Brandy   4.1428   29/7
      34/12-49/12
Predicted range (2.8333 to 4.0833)
Note if C-B were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.9133.

Louie-Michael   4.7142   33/7
      38/12-53/12
Predicted range (3.1666 to 4.4166)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.1666

Brent-Caite    5.7142   40/7
      45/12-60/12
Predicted range (3.7500 to 5.0000)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.8333

Jordan-Daniel    5.5714   39/7
      44/12-59/12
Predicted range (3.6666 to 4.9133)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.7500


What this tells us:
With the “first is last, last is first” outcome in leg 7, all of the teams are now projected to be above the worse performing final three threshold.
Two teams are above the first place threshold even at the highest end of their projected range, while two other teams have prediction ranges that are outside of the first place threshold.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: WalterC on April 02, 2010, 07:29:58 PM
Reading this thread, it's like debating who the best quarterback of all-time is. Very interesting!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 04, 2010, 09:53:08 PM
Team      This Week   Week 7      Week 6      Week 5      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.8750   23/8   (3.1428)   (2.6666)   (2.4000)   Stable
Carol-Brandy   3.8750   31/8   (4.1428)   (4.0000)   (4.4000)   Rising Slowly
Louie-Michael   4.5000   36/8   (4.7142)   (4.8333)   (5.6000)   Rising Slowly
Jordan-Daniel    5.5000   44/8   (5.5714)   (6.1666)   (6.4000)   Rising
Brent-Caite    5.5000   44/8   (5.7142)   (6.1666)   (6.2000)   Rising Slowly

Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1   
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 07, 2010, 11:22:33 PM
I'm seriously having a tough time right now, especially without a schnauzer and badly needing to find one to adopt. I've got a lot going on, and losing that sweet Edie hasn't helped. I've had a really hard time sleeping and the weather here (20 degrees above normal, and pine pollen everywhere) is not helping.

Anyhow, I finally got to updating the projections, and here they are.

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 4 placement points for 4 remaining legs, and 17 placement points for worse possible performance is (5-5-4-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and two more eliminations, 1 NEL and final leg)

Jet-Cord   2.8750   23/8
      27/12-40/12
Predicted range (2.2500 to 3.3333)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.1666.

Carol-Brandy   3.8750   31/8
      35/12-48/12
Predicted range (2.9133 to 4.0000)
Note if C-B were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.8333.

Louie-Michael   4.5000   36/8
      40/12-53/12
Predicted range (3.3333 to 4.4166)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.2500

Brent-Caite    5.5000   44/8
      48/12-61/12
Predicted range (4.0000 to 5.0866)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.9133

Jordan-Daniel    5.5000   44/8
      48/12-61/12
Predicted range (4.0000 to 5.0866)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.9133


What this tells us:
With four legs remaining, Jet-Cord have become the favorites, now, with Steve-Allie out of the Race. Carol-Brandy have a decent chance with the three other remaining teams steadily moving out of range to win, but still have a decent chance for Final 3.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: everbloom on April 08, 2010, 03:12:02 AM
At the rate this is going, it's most likely either the cowboys really win this thing, or a team will top Eric and Danielle for worst team to ever win based on performance.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Dånooky on April 08, 2010, 09:25:20 PM
What I like of this season so far is that the leader board is much harder to predict than Season 4 :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: everbloom on April 08, 2010, 11:41:30 PM
True. What with a complete reversal of finishes and inconsistent teams!

By the way, is it just me who noticed Carol/Brandy's alternating finishes between 2nd and 5th?
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Hooky on April 09, 2010, 02:18:00 PM
What I like of this season so far is that the leader board is much harder to predict than Season 4 :lol:

1st, 9th, 1st, 9th. Enough said. :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: apskip on April 10, 2010, 09:14:46 AM
True. What with a complete reversal of finishes and inconsistent teams!

By the way, is it just me who noticed Carol/Brandy's alternating finishes between 2nd and 5th?

No, I didn't because the record for then is:
6th
3rd
3rd
5th
5th
2nd
5th
2nd

Everbloom, you are one of many trying to discover non-existent patterns but thank you after-the-fact for correcting my typo reversing Carol and Brandy's legs 7 and 8.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: everbloom on April 10, 2010, 11:20:55 AM
True. What with a complete reversal of finishes and inconsistent teams!

By the way, is it just me who noticed Carol/Brandy's alternating finishes between 2nd and 5th?

No, I didn't because the record for then is:
6th
3rd
3rd
5th
5th
2nd
2nd
5th
Everbloom, you are one of many trying to discover non-existent patterns.

Found it on Wikipedia. Check it out. They were 2nd on this leg...and we all know what came before this.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 10, 2010, 05:21:59 PM
I could always post my compiled record of placements by season that shows each leg. (And I have all of the uberleg midpoints which Wikipedia doesn't have.)  :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 11, 2010, 09:42:50 PM
I hope someone asks Carol about her schnauzer. It would cheer me up.

Here's  the placements afyer leg 9. With Carol-Brandy out of the mix, the remaining final four teams stayed in place this week:

Team      This Week   Week 8      Week 7      Week 6      Week 5      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.8888   26/9   (2.8750)   (3.1428)   (2.6666)   (2.4000)   Stable
Louie-Michael   4.4444   40/9   (4.5000)   (4.7142)   (4.8333)   (5.6000)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    5.0000   45/9   (5.5000)   (5.5714)   (6.1666)   (6.4000)   Rising
Brent-Caite    5.1111   46/9   (5.5000)   (5.7142)   (6.1666)   (6.2000)   Rising Slowly

Carol-Brandy   4.0000   36/9
Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 19, 2010, 12:57:16 PM
Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 3 placement points for 3 remaining legs, and 10 placement points for worse possible performance is (4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and one NEL, one more eliminations, and final leg)

Jet-Cord   2.8888   26/9
      29/12-36/12
Predicted range (2.4166 to 3.0000)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.8333.

Louie-Michael   4.4444   40/9
      43/12-50/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 4.1666)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel    5.0000   45/9
      48/12-55/12
Predicted range (4.0000 to 4.5866)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166

Brent-Caite    5.1111   46/9
      49/12-56/12
Predicted range (4.0833 to 4.6666)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.5000

What this tells us:
With four teams remaining, Jet-Cord have become the heavy stastical favorites, period. Louie/Michael would have to win all three remaining legs to avoid becoming the worse averaging winning team ever.
All four teams have a decent or better chance of being final three. None of the teams can finish with an acerage as low as the worse performing final three team. There isn’t much to go on as to which team is most likely to be the last eliminated team, but since next week has to logically be a NEL, there’s still one more leg to factor in to see if a favorite for elimination emerges.

One statistical oddity. At this point in the Race, all team acerages will tend to improve, especially for the teams whose current placement average is at 4.0000 or higher. Jet-Cord on the other hand could still raise their average closer to or above 3.000, as their average is lower than 4.000.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 25, 2010, 08:38:18 PM
Team      This Week   Week 9      Week 8      Week 7      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.7000   27/10   (2.8888)   (2.8750)   (3.1428)   Rising Slowly
Louie-Michael   4.4000   44/10   (4.4444)   (4.5000)   (4.7142)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    4.8000   48/10   (5.0000)   (5.5000)   (5.5714)   Rising Slowly
Brent-Caite    4.8000   48/10   (5.1111)   (5.5000)   (5.7142)   Rising Slowly

Carol-Brandy   4.0000   36/9
Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1   

It now appears we're going to have at least two final three teams wgose final average will be higher than 3.0, even 4.0.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on April 26, 2010, 05:32:34 PM
FINAL PROJECTION

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 2 placement points for 2 remaining legs, and 6 placement points for worse possible performance is (3-3) to reach the finish mat with one more elimination and final leg remaining).

Jet-Cord   2.7000   27/10
      29/12-33/12
Predicted range (2.4166 to 2.7500)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.5833.

Louie-Michael   4.4000   44/10
      46/12-50/12
Predicted range (3.8333 to 4.1666)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel    4.8000   48/10
      50/12-54/12
Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

Brent-Caite    4.8000   48/10
      50/12-54/12
Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

What this tells us:
Barring an error of nearly unprecedented proportions, Jet-Cord have become the heavy statistical favorites to win, period.

Should any of the other three teams win, that team would become the worse-performing winning team by average placement across all 16 editions to date. None of those three remaining teams can attain an average placement that is any better than 4.0000. If Jet-Cord win it all, they will be the fourth-best performing winners (and eighth overall), just behind Tyler-James and Kris-Jon. If they are third in this next-to-last leg, but win in the end, they wouldn’t be worse that the four more spaces down the list, with the eighth nest winning performance (and 12th best overall performance, ever to date.)

At worse, as long as Jet-Cord make the final three, their final average cannot be worse than 2.7500, the same average placement attained by Margie-Luke.

I’ll be moving long distance next week, so I probably won’t get a chance to update the projection, but once it’s in the final three luck becomes more of a factor with the final leg. Just look at the number of second place teams that finished with a better average than the winning team. Although in this season, unless it’ a Jet-Cord win, it’ll be the worse performing winners ever.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on May 02, 2010, 11:13:26 PM
Here's the placements after leg 11.  I probably won't be ale to post the final placements next Sunday night; at the moment I don't even know where I will be next Sunday night.

But the next chance I get after Sunday, I'll post the season numbers and update the list at the beginning of the thread.

Team      This Week   Week 10   Week 9      Week 8      Week 7      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.6363   29/11   (2.7000)   (2.8888)   (2.8750)   (3.1428)   Steady
Brent-Caite    4.4545   49/11    (4.8000)   (5.1111)   (5.5000)   (5.7142)   Rising Slowly
Jordan-Daniel    4.6363   51/11    (4.8000)   (5.0000)   (5.5000)   (5.5714)   Rising Slowly

Louie-Michael   4.3636   48/11
Carol-Brandy   4.0000   36/9
Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1   
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Hooky on May 03, 2010, 04:55:13 PM
I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Dånooky on May 05, 2010, 11:10:55 AM
I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
you should re-open your rant thread
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: georgiapeach on May 05, 2010, 11:48:55 AM
I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
you should re-open your rant thread

Let's not. :lol:

And this thread is for the schnauzers ranking discussion, who you want to win can go elsewhere, okay? :ty3:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Hooky on May 05, 2010, 08:08:41 PM
you should re-open your rant thread

I would... :snicker:

But:

Let's not. :lol:

 :lol3:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on May 10, 2010, 04:48:25 PM
Here are the final numbers for Race 16. An updated combined list will be edited into the first post of this thread, as well.


16-02 Jet-Cord      31/12   2.5833   
16-06 Steve-Allison      27/8    3.3750
16-05 Carol-Brandy      36/9    4.0000   
16-01 Jordan-Daniel    52/12   4.3333   
16-03 Brent-Caite    52/12   4.3333   
16-04 Louie-Michael   48/11   4.3636   
16-08 Joseph-Heidi       22/5    4.4000
16-09 Monique-Shawne    16/3    5.3333   
16-07 Jeff-Jordan      34/6    5.6666   
16-10 Jody-Shannon    20/2   10.0000   
 16-11 Adrian-Dana       11/1    11.0000

Perhaps the worse objectively performing final three, and definitiely the worst average placemenr for a winning team, ever. Very disappointing.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: Dånooky on May 10, 2010, 04:53:13 PM
Perhaps the worse objectively performing final three, and definitiely the worst average placemenr for a winning team, ever. Very disappointing.

I don't find it disappointing at all, sometimes the underdogs are bound to win, or else every season without a Nick/Starr or Meghan/Cheyne would be a disappointment by those standards.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: slayton on May 10, 2010, 06:07:56 PM
I agree with you and share your disappointment, theschnauzers, about the final 3 and the worst performing winners ever.

I disagree with Dånooky about Dan & Jordan being underdogs.

Young/male teams have always been the favorites, followed by young/co-ed teams.

If I were to rank the teams based on winning archetypes before the race started, Jet & Cord and Dan & Jordan would have been the top 2, followed by Brent & Caite and Jeff & Jordan.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: chill_sd on May 10, 2010, 06:36:50 PM
As has been pointed out, this is an interesting way of statistically ranking the teams.  Unfortunately, it doesn't tell a great deal about the level of competition in a particular season.

For example, this season, 9 of the 11 teams had rankings under 6.0, 8 teams were under 5.5 and 7 teams were under 4.5, including the 8th place team.  This indicates some parity among the teams.

What it doesn't tell us is if this is parity among high-level teams or if it is parity among mediocre teams, or even poor teams.

All-Stars had a similar result, with 8 of 11 teams under 5.5, 7 under 5.0 and 6 under 4.5, including the winners at 3.6.

I would venture to say that the All-Stars cast was evenly matched at a fairly high level of racing, whereas the S16 cast were evenly matched at a somewhat lower level of racing.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, from the beginning
Post by: theschnauzers on May 10, 2010, 06:50:41 PM
Consider that four teams finished within a range of .06 of a placement within each other, and three of those teams were within .03 placements:

Quote
16-01 Jordan-Daniel    52/12   4.3333   
16-03 Brent-Caite    52/12   4.3333   
16-04 Louie-Michael   48/11   4.3636   
16-08 Joseph-Heidi       22/5    4.4000

We've had two teams in the final three finish with an identical average before (Rob/Brennan and Frank-Margarita in the first season), but they were the dominant teams in their season, I'd be hard pressed to label either Brent-Caite or Dan-Jordan as "dominant teams."

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: mswood on May 10, 2010, 11:05:22 PM
Well no matter which team I like or don't I have to admit that I can't find fault in the teams that have won since season 12.  By removing mid leg equalizers they have put the final leg in the hand of the racers and dumb luck.  Now that doesn't mean I have disliked all the earlier winners (because that isn''t true), but if you win, by god I want you to have a run the leg better then any other team.  I don't want you to be just the team that did good on one final task and only finished first because an equalizer mid leg erased the lead another team had on you.  Thats why I love the new lay out for legs, you can build a lead, and you can lose a lead, but it isn't due to the manipulation of the producers.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: Caelestor on May 10, 2010, 11:08:21 PM
Well no matter which team I like or don't I have to admit that I can't find fault in the teams that have won since season 12.  By removing mid leg equalizers they have put the final leg in the hand of the racers and dumb luck.  Now that doesn't mean I have disliked all the earlier winners (because that isn''t true), but if you win, by god I want you to have a run the leg better then any other team.  I don't want you to be just the team that did good on one final task and only finished first because an equalizer mid leg erased the lead another team had on you.  Thats why I love the new lay out for legs, you can build a lead, and you can lose a lead, but it isn't due to the manipulation of the producers.

I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.
I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: SuzuKen on May 11, 2010, 12:44:34 AM
I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.
I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I though TAR12 was tricky enough? memory + puzzle solving IN THE COLD *brrr*
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: Caelestor on May 11, 2010, 01:34:59 AM
I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.
I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I though TAR12 was tricky enough? memory + puzzle solving IN THE COLD *brrr*

TAR 12 was very tricky too. But TAR 14 had hundreds of surfboards and confounded pretty much all the teams remaining.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: SuzuKen on May 11, 2010, 01:41:58 AM
TAR 12 was very tricky too. But TAR 14 had hundreds of surfboards and confounded pretty much all the teams remaining.

 :groan: forgot that aspect of it. those memory tasks sure were challenging!

Guess TAR16 would be remembered as having some of the easiest tasks ever... First the coin tossing (non-)speed bump practically next door to the RB, and then the memory task.... they could have at least made it tougher by having psychedelic styled posters of SOMETHING from each leg (instead of just e eliminated teams & NELs) and mixing them in with other similar posters....
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: slayton on May 11, 2010, 08:00:24 PM
TAR16 joins TAR4 and TAR11 as the only seasons to not have at least 2 of the top 3 performing teams in the final 3.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: slayton on May 12, 2010, 05:11:51 PM
Other than being the worst performing winning team ever, Dan & Jordan are also the second-worst performing team to ever finish in the top 2.

Only Teri & Ian from TAR3, who are 53 combined years older, finished worse in the top 2 with a 4.5384.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: slayton on May 13, 2010, 05:28:35 PM
Of the 48 teams to ever make the final 3, TAR16 has 2 teams tied for 43rd (or 44th) out of 48.


Of the 64 teams to ever make the final 4, TAR16 has one team ranked 59th out of 64 and two teams tied for 57th (or 58th) out of 64.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: Jobby on May 14, 2010, 11:08:49 AM
These statistics are crazy but very fun to read through!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: theschnauzers on May 26, 2010, 08:52:18 PM
Quote
I could always post my compiled record of placements by season that shows each leg. (And I have all of the uberleg midpoints which Wikipedia doesn't have.) 

I've already said that of there was an interest, I'd post the season-by-leg placements if there's any interest in my doing so.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: theschnauzers on September 19, 2010, 01:50:21 PM
I'm will, of course, be tracking the average placements leg-by-leg again for season 17.  Like last time, I expect to start posting the average placements at either leg 2 or leg 3, depending on if there's a lot of movement among the teams in those very early legs.  And as we get towards the end I'll also start projecting the final average placement ranges for the remaining teams.

If you want to discuss more than the actual numbers and compare teams, that's for other threads, For example, http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,21338.0.html (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,21338.0.html)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: theschnauzers on October 03, 2010, 09:17:58 PM
With all of the placement movements just in the first two legs, I've gone ahead and started the weekly leaderboard tracking for TAR 17 with the second leg.  
The format that I used last season will be visible next week (current placement average compared to prior weeks' placement averages), but goota start sometime!

........................L1     L2      Avg.
Brook-Claire.......04     01      05/2   2.50
Jill-Thomas........01     05      06/2   3.00
Katie-Rachel.......05     02      07/2   3.50
Connor-Jonathan.03     06      09/2   4.50
Nat-Kat..............02     07      09/2   4.50
Michael-Kevin.....07     03      10/2   5.00
Chad-Stephanie..08     04      12/2   6.00
Gary-Mallory......06     09      15/2   7.50
Nick-Vicki..........10     08      18/2   9.00

Andie-Jenna.......09     10      19/2   9.50
Ron-Tony...........11              11/1   11.00
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: Mug Costanza on October 04, 2010, 04:23:56 PM
^ You don't have Brook and Claire on that list.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: theschnauzers on October 04, 2010, 04:42:27 PM
Copy-and-paste issue fixed.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all of the teams, UPDATED for TAR 16
Post by: DrRox on October 04, 2010, 06:13:49 PM
You might want to edit the thread topic....Updated for TAR 16/17     If you cant, maybe an admin will.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on October 04, 2010, 06:55:50 PM
Done, with a twist. :)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on October 10, 2010, 10:26:34 PM
This is week three, and this will be the base week for assessing placement trends starting with leg 4 next week:

Leaderboard Trends
.........................................................This Week.......... (Last Week)
Team....................L1...L2..L3..........Pl/Legs    Aver......(Pl/Legs    Aver..).

Connor-Jonathan.....03     06    01   10/3   3.3333..........(09/2   4.5000)
Brook-Claire...........04     01    06   11/3   3.6666..........(05/2   2.5000)
Katie-Rachel...........05     02    04   11/3   3.6666..........(07/2   3.5000)
Jill-Thomas.............01     05    07   13/3   4.3333..........(06/2   3.0000)
Chad-Stephanie.......08     04    03   15/3   5.0000..........(12/2   6.0000)
Gary-Mallory...........06     09    02   17/3   5.6666..........(15/2   7.5000)
Nat-Kat..................02     07    08   17/3   5.6666..........(09/2   4.5000)
Michael-Kevin..........07     03    09   19/3   6.3333..........(10/2   5.0000)
Nick-Vicki...............10     08    05   23/3   7.6666..........(18/2   9.0000)

Andie-Jenna.......09     10       19/2   9.50
Ron-Tony...........11                 11/1   11.00
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on October 19, 2010, 02:16:36 AM
Here's the first placement chart of the season with each remaining team's trends:
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends
..............................................................This Week.......... (Last Week)................(Two Weeks Ago)
Team.......................L1...L2....L3..........Pl/Legs ..Aver......(Pl/Legs ..Aver..).......(Pl/Legs Aver..)


Brook-Claire...........04     01... 06........03......14/4    3.5000 (11/3..........3.6666)  (05/2   2.5000)   Slowly rising
Nat-Kat....................02     07... 08.......01........18/4   4.5000     (17/3..........5.6666)  (09/2   4.5000)    Little Movement
Jill-Thomas.............01     05... 07........05.......18/4   4.5000       (13/3..........4.3333)  (06/2   3.0000)   Little Movement
Katie-Rachel...........05     02... 04........08......19/4    4.7500       (11/3..........3.6666)  (07/2   3.5000)   Slowly falling
Gary-Mallory...........06     09... 02.......02.......19/4   4.7500       (17/3..........5.6666)  (15/2   7.5000)   Rising
Chad-Stephanie.......08     04... 03.......07........22/4   5.5000      (15/3..........5.0000)  (12/2   6.0000)   Little Movement
Michael-Kevin..........07     03.. 09........04....... 23/4   5.7500      (19/3..........6.3333)  (10/2   5.0000)   Slowly Dropping
Nick-Vicki...............10     08.... 05.......06....... 29/4  7.2500      (23/3..........7.6666)  (18/2   9.0000)   Rising

Connor-Jonathan.....03     06    01    09           19/4   4.75
Andie-Jenna.......09     10                    19/2   9.50
Ron-Tony...........11                              11/1   11.00
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 02, 2010, 04:59:17 PM
Sorry about not posting last week, but those numbers are included as part of the rolling back to set trends with movement over last two legs:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (6).....Last Leg (5).....Previous Leg (4)..Trend
Nat-Kat............23/6   3.8333.....19/5 3.8000.....18/4   4.5000.....Slowly Rising
Brook-Claire.....21/6   3.5000.....19/5 3.8000.....14/4   3.5000.....Stable
Gary-Mallory....27/6   4.5000.....21/5 4.2000.....19/4   4.7500.....Very Slowly Rising
Jill-Thomas......22/6   3.6666.....21/5 4.2000.....18/4   4.5000.....Rising
Michael-Kevin...30/6   5.0000.....27/5 5.4000.....23/4   5.7500.....Rising
Chad-Stephanie.34/6   5.6666.....29/5 5.8000.....22/4   5.5000.....Slowly Falling
Nick-Vicki.........42/6   7.0000.....35/5 7.0000.....29/4   7.2500.....Stable

Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 07, 2010, 09:33:33 AM
I meant to rank the teams by their current placement average, but forgot to do it.  It'll be done with the leg 7 rankings this week.

And I'll start projecting final average placement in a week or two. There're still too many variables for it to make sense yet (number of remaining teams and remaining legs; at least we're down to one remaining NEL which does simplify the projection calculations.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: Jobby on November 07, 2010, 09:38:18 AM
I can't believe Brook and Claire actually has the best average this season. And i think this is the first time i see at least six of the remaining teams averaging around 4 to 6. Guess the teams rankings have really been unpredictable!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: Zack. on November 10, 2010, 01:17:02 PM
Keeping the good fight up for theschnauzers  :tup:

Code: [Select]
After Leg 7 (by finishing order):

Team....................Leg 7............Leg 6............Leg 5..............Trend

Nat/Kat..................24/7 3.429....23/6 3.833....19/5 3.800.......Rising
Brooke/Claire.........23/7 3.286....21/6 3.500....19/5 3.800.......Rising
Nick/Vicki................45/7 6.429....42/6 7.000....35/5 7.000.......Slowly rising
Gary/Mallory...........31/7 4.429....27/6 4.500....21/5 4.200.......Stable
Jill/Thomas..............27/7 3.857....22/6 3.666....21/5 4.200......Very slowly rising
Chad/Stephanie......40/7 5.714....34/6 5.666....29/5 5.800.....Stable

Michael/Kevin..........37/7 5.286
Katie/Rachel............27/5 5.400
Connor/Jonathan....19/4 4.750
Andie/Jenna............19/2 9.500
Ron/Tony.................11/1 11.000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 10, 2010, 03:26:37 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (7).....Last Leg (6).....Previous Leg (5)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......23/7   3.2857....21/6   3.5000....19/5 3.8000.......Slowly Rising
Nat-Kat............24/7   3.4285....23/6   3.8333....19/5 3.8000.......Slowly Rising
Jill-Thomas........27/7   3.8571....22/6   3.6666....21/5 4.2000.......Stable
Gary-Mallory.......31/7   4.4285....27/6   4.5000....21/5 4.2000.......Stable
Chad-Stephanie.....40/7   5.7142....34/6   5.6666....29/5 5.8000.......Stable
Nick-Vicki.........45/7   6.4285....42/6   7.0000....35/5 7.0000.......Slowly Rising

Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 10, 2010, 03:28:55 PM
Thanks for trying, Zach.

I take these decimal fractions out 4 spaces, and I don't round up or down. That way they are consistent with the rankings list at the beginning of the thread.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 14, 2010, 08:56:28 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (8 ).....Last Leg (7).....Previous Leg (6)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......27/8   3.3750....23/7   3.2857....21/6   3.5000....Stable
Nat-Kat............29/8   3.6250....24/7   3.4285....23/6   3.8333....Slowly Rising
Jill-Thomas........29/8   3.6250....27/7   3.8571....22/6   3.6666....Stable
Chad-Stephanie.....41/8   5.1250....40/7   5.7142....34/6   5.6666....Slowly Rising
Nick-Vicki.........48/8   6.0000....45/7   6.4285....42/6   7.0000....Rising

Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 22, 2010, 12:00:03 AM
After leg 9 and the Double U-Turn:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (9).....Last Leg (8 ).....Previous Leg (7)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......31/9   3.4444....27/8   3.3750....23/7   3.2857....slowly falling
Nat-Kat............32/9   3.5555....29/8   3.6250....24/7   3.4285....steady
Jill-Thomas........30/9   3.3333....29/8   3.6250....27/7   3.8571....slowly rising
Nick-Vicki.........50/9   5.5555....48/8   6.0000....45/7   6.4285....slowly rising

Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on November 28, 2010, 08:57:19 PM
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (10)......Last Leg (9).....Previous Leg (8)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......34/10   3.4000....31/9   3.4444.....27/8   3.3750....steady
Nat-Kat............33/10   3.3000....32/9   3.5555.....29/8   3.6250....slowly rising
Jill-Thomas........32/10   3.2000....30/9   3.3333.....29/8   3.6250....slowly rising
Nick-Vicki.........54/10   5.4000....50/9   5.5555.....48/8   6.0000....slowly rising (due to number of teams left)

Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000


I've decided that it makes no sense to do an objective projection on the final four teams for one simple reason. The top 3 teams have been within a range of 0.2 placements for the past several weeks, and are virtually certain of being that way next week.  As to those three teams, they're just about equal in their chances, and there's no objective way of separating them out, unless one of happens to somehow be the last eliminated team next week.  Then it won't matter anyway.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: Jobby on December 05, 2010, 02:24:35 AM
Interestingly, Brooke and Claire only won one leg, whereas Nat and Kat won four and Jill and Thomas with three. With those statistics, you would have expected Jill and Thomas or Nat and Kat to have a better average. It turns out that Brooke and Claire still have the best average out of the three teams.

Let's not even talk about Nick and Vicki. They have worst averages than the fifth to ninth place team. And if i'm not wrong, another first for TAR is that the first to ninth place team all have averages below 6.0.. which is kinda shocking. :ascared
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on December 05, 2010, 11:43:48 PM
I forgot to put the teams in order of average placement but as I said before, those three teams have basically been within .2 placements of one another for most of the Race so there's little practical distinction.

I'll get the leaderboard averages up tomorrow.  It's late, and Lieb has to have her playtime while the sun is up, and she is a ball of energy!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on December 06, 2010, 11:11:34 AM
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (11)......Last Leg (10)....Previous Leg (9)...Trend
Jill-Thomas........33/11  3.0000......32/10   3.2000....30/9   3.3333.....stable
Brook-Claire.......36/11  3.2737......34/10   3.4000....31/9   3.4444.....stable
Nat-Kat............36/11  3.2737......33/10   3.3000....32/9   3.5555.....stable

Nick-Vicki.........58/11  5.2727
Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000

Some "firsts"


First time I've see final three teams this close going into the final leg. (There have been two teams tied, or nearly so, but not three. And these three teams have 9 of the 11 leg winners.
Also unusual, the spread between fourth and ninth place is unusually tight. (from 4.6250 to 5.4000 and when you add in the top three teams the range is 3.0000 to 5.4000, again a very tight spread.)
This says to me that this may have been the season with the greatest spread of parity ever.

Next week, we'll give the final averages that will go into the main list for season 17, and
Show content
a look at season 18.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: Jobby on December 06, 2010, 08:41:28 PM
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (11)......Last Leg (10)....Previous Leg (9)...Trend
Jill-Thomas........33/11  3.0000......32/10   3.2000....30/9   3.3333.....stable
Brook-Claire.......36/11  3.2737......34/10   3.4000....31/9   3.4444.....stable
Nat-Kat............36/11  3.2737......33/10   3.3000....32/9   3.5555.....stable

Nick-Vicki.........58/11  5.2727
Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000

Some "firsts"


First time I've see final three teams this close going into the final leg. (There have been two teams tied, or nearly so, but not three. And these three teams have 9 of the 11 leg winners.
Also unusual, the spread between fourth and ninth place is unusually tight. (from 4.6250 to 5.4000 and when you add in the top three teams the range is 3.0000 to 5.4000, again a very tight spread.)
This says to me that this may have been the season with the greatest spread of parity ever.

Next week, we'll give the final averages that will go into the main list for season 17, and
Show content
a look at season 18.

 :jumpy: Simply the reason why Season 17 is awesome!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: slayton on December 07, 2010, 06:53:05 PM
Rob used the phrase "stacked themselves (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,23627.msg571947.html#msg571947)" for TAR17, and I agree that TAR17 is one of those seasons that has a more level playing field unlike seasons such as TAR1, TAR2, TAR4, TAR9, TAR10 or TAR16.

The alpha-male teams are the Michael Jordans of the race, and this is one of those seasons where Jordan is playing baseball. 

The dominant co-ed teams are probably like the Hakeem Olajuwons of the race.

I still haven't decided if Jill & Thomas are more like Hakeem Olajuwon or Patrick Ewing, but production wanted parity in TAR17 and they got it.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: inomu on December 14, 2010, 05:52:14 PM
I noticed that Dustin & Kandice, Ron & Kelly and Rob & Kimberly are not in blue in the first post but they should be.

This list is so interesting. What an amazing all-stars it would if the top 11 teams battle against each other!   :cmas28
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on December 14, 2010, 05:56:07 PM
I'll be updating the list with TAR 17 in the next few days as I have time. If anything like that needs to be fixed, I'll address it then.

With a new puppy to watch over and having to rearrange some things because of the blizzard this past weekend, I haven't been able to work on that, and I'd rather make sure I'm wide awake and clear headed.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Final Update for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on December 19, 2010, 03:08:07 PM
The full rankings list with the final averages for TAR 17 teams, is now shown in the first post.

I'll have a special list in the TAR 18 Spoilers Forum with the original placement averages of just those teams shortly.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Final Update for TAR 17
Post by: theschnauzers on January 30, 2011, 12:35:34 AM
For TAR:UB, I'll be using this thread as I have the two prior seasons, updating the average placement of all the teams, and their trends starting with episode 2 or 3.

The special TAR:UB ranking thread will be used to compare each team to their placement average in their original season and see if there's any similar pattern that I observed in TARAS.

That's one way to make sure its an apple to apple, orange to orange comparison this time around.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: phant0m on February 06, 2011, 08:54:10 PM
Quote
09-02 Eric/Jeremy   22/13   1.6923
15-01 Meghan/Cheyne   24/12   2.0000
14-01 Tammy/Victor   27/12   2.2500
07-02 Rob/Amber    30/13   2.3076
01-02 Frank/Margarita   31/13   2.3846
06-02 Kris/Jon        31/13   2.3846
10-01Tyler/James    31/13   2.3846
13-01 Nick/Starr      27/11   2.4545
01-01 Rob/Brennan   32/13   2.4615
05-02 Colin/Christie   32/13   2.4615

now THAT - would be a BADASS allstars
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: Jobby on February 06, 2011, 09:20:21 PM
Looking at the list again, i just realized that Tammy and Victor had such good averages and it didn't once occur to me that they're that competitive!! I guess the impression that they screw up Leg 3 still lingers in my head more..
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: DrRox on February 06, 2011, 11:45:59 PM
Dont forget that Leg 3, for Tammy/Victor, started out with the emergency landing of their flight to Romania......that had to shake them up.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: Jobby on February 06, 2011, 11:59:35 PM
Dont forget that Leg 3, for Tammy/Victor, started out with the emergency landing of their flight to Romania......that had to shake them up.

It was a BAD BAD LEG for them.... :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: mrmando on February 28, 2011, 04:48:29 PM
If T/V had WON Leg 3 rather than placing 8th, they'd be the highest-ranked team thus far, with a 1.67.
If they'd placed 2nd or 3rd, they would be 2nd, ahead of Meghan/Cheyne, as they would if you threw out Leg 3 altogether. If they'd placed 4th, they would be TIED for 2nd with Meghan/Cheyne.

T/v recovered well from their communication difficulties in Leg 3, and their competitiveness does kind of sneak up on you. I don't recall them making any major goofs beyond that leg.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on March 19, 2011, 10:23:00 PM
I said I'd have this up by the weekend, and I am.

I'm projecting the last two placements for leg 4 because of the TBC, but I feel confident that I've those two right.  But consider those two tentative for now, although it would not affect the trendline for the first four legs that much.

Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (2)..Trend

15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.5000.........2.0000.........2.5000.........4.0000.........Rising Slowly
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.7500.........4.0000.........5.0000.........1.0000.........Dropping
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.0000.........3.6666.........3.5000.........3.0000.........Dropping Slowly   
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.5000.........4.0000.........5.0000.........3.5000.........Dropping Slowly
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke...................5.2500.........6.6666.........6.0000.........7.0000.........Rising
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................5.5000.........6.6666.........7.0000.........11.0000........Rising Rapidly
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............6.2500.........7.0000.........9.0000.........8.0000.........Rising
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime....................7.5000.........7.6666.........7.0000.........6.0000.........Dropping
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................8.2500.........8.0000.........8.5000.........10.0000........Rising
      

14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........2.0000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........9.0000.........(Eliminated)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on March 21, 2011, 03:55:48 PM
We can see some trends emerging with the fifth leg completed.

Jet-Cord, who started slowly in their original season and then picked up steam, once again started slowly this season, and are again generating a rapid rise in their placement average.
Zev-Justin are dropping quickly after a strong start.
Gary-Mallory and Margie-Luke are slowly gaining ground. (G-M might be described as "stable.")
The Globetrotters started well but are now in a dropping trendline.
Hard to say whether the trendlines for Ron-Christina and Kent-Vxysen are slowly rising on merit or because there are fewer teams. They are bringing up the rear, though, especially Kent-Vxysen.



Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (5)...Last Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)..Trend
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.4000.........3.7500.........4.0000.........Stable or Rising Slowly
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.0000.........4.0000.........3.6666.........Stable or Dropping Slowly
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................4.4000.........3.5000.........2.0000.........Dropping Rapidly
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.6000.........5.5000.........6.6666.........Rising Rapidly      
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.8000.........4.5000.........4.0000.........Dropping Slowly
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke...................4.8000.........5.2500.........6.6666.........Rising
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............6.4000.........6.2500.........7.0000.........Rising Slowly
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................7.6000.........8.2500.........8.0000.........Stable or Rising Slowly
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime..................................................7.8000.........(Eliminated)
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........(Eliminated)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on March 30, 2011, 10:59:26 PM
The trends that we saw after the previous leg continued after this last leg.  Jet and Cord now have the second-best average placement of the season to date, similar to how they performed in their first season, and we're at the half-way point (6 legs of 12.) Gary and Mallory are also improving week by week in their placement average, but they did better in the first leg than Jet and Cord.
Ron and Christina and Kent and Vxyzen's average placements are improving slowly because of the presence of fewer teams on each of the last two legs. But they clearly are bringing up the rear of the remaining teams. The placement averages of the other three remaining teams are falling slowly and these three seem to be moving as a pack.

Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (6)...Last Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)..Trend
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.0000.........3.4000.........3.7500.........Rising
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.1666.........4.6000.........5.5000.........Rising Rapidly    
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.3333.........4.0000.........4.0000.........Dropping Slowly
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................4.3333.........4.4000.........3.5000.........Dropping Slowly
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........5.1666.........4.8000.........4.5000.........Dropping Slowly
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............5.8333.........6.4000.........6.2500.........Rising Slowly
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................7.1666.........7.6000.........8.2500.........Rising Slowly

14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke.................................................5.3333.........(Eliminated)
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime..................................................7.8000.........(Eliminated)
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........(Eliminated)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on April 11, 2011, 11:49:27 PM
There was some minor shuffling among the three teams whose average placements are closely bunched together, while one of the two poorly performing teams was eliminated.

I'm still considering trying to compute the final placement ranges for those teams that are left once we get past the final non-elimination pitstop, but it would be too complicated to try to do it before then.  Not to mention that the final two legs are being aired the same night, which means we'll have to deal with projecting at least four teams no matter what.

Anyhow here are the averages for the TAR:UB teams through leg 7 of 12:

Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (7)...Last Leg (6)...Prior Leg (5)..Trend
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Mallory...................3.1428      3.0000.........3.4000.........Rising
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................4.0000      4.3333.........4.4000.........Dropping Slowly
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.1428      4.3333.........4.0000.........Dropping Slowly
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.2857      4.1666.........4.6000.........Rising Slowly
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.5714      5.1666.........4.8000.........Dropping Slowly
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................7.0000      7.1666.........7.6000.........Rising Slowly

12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina............................................6.0000.........(Eliminated)
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke.................................................5.3333.........(Eliminated)
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime..................................................7.8000.........(Eliminated)
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........(Eliminated)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: Dånooky on April 13, 2011, 08:53:45 PM
just a minor detail:
you have GM listed as Gary-Malloy
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on April 13, 2011, 10:33:57 PM
I
just a minor detail:
you have GM listed as Gary-Malloy
Fixed.
That's what happens with 6 point type. Which has to be used to fix things within one line on the screen.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on April 18, 2011, 04:03:21 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (8)...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Trend
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.5000.........3.1428.........3.0000.........Dropping Slowly
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.6250.........4.0000.........4.3333.........Rising Slowly
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.1250.........4.1428.........4.3333.........Rising Slowly
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.2500.........4.5714.........5.1666.........Rising Slowly
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.3750.........4.2857.........4.1666.........Stable   
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................6.5000.........7.0000.........7.1666.........Rising Slowly

12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina............................................6.0000.........(Eliminated)
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke.................................................5.3333.........(Eliminated)
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime..................................................7.8000.........(Eliminated)
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........(Eliminated)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: Dånooky on April 22, 2011, 05:41:53 PM
what's your criteria for deciding between slowly and rapidly?
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on April 22, 2011, 07:01:34 PM
Basically the value of the movement in placement points up or down (slowly would be well less than one placement, rapidly would be clearly more than one placement point; it can be hard to quantify if teams are bouncing up one week and down the next, so that can influence the characterization. Stable usually means a very narrow range of movemene over the course of the three leg placements being used.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on April 28, 2011, 07:24:35 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (9)...Last Leg (8 )...Prior Leg (7)..Trend
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.3333.........3.6250.........4.0000.........Rising Slowly
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.5555.........3.5000.........3.1428.........Dropping Slowly
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................3.8888.........4.1250.........4.1428.........Rising Slowly
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.3333.........4.2500.........4.5714.........Stable
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................6.1111.........6.5000.........7.0000.........Rising Slowly


16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord....................................................4.5555.........(Eliminated)
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina............................................6.0000.........(Eliminated)
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke.................................................5.3333.........(Eliminated)
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime..................................................7.8000.........(Eliminated)
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........(Eliminated)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: Dånooky on April 28, 2011, 07:43:45 PM
you have the Malloy type-o in all of your tables
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on April 29, 2011, 12:53:17 AM
That was a mistake in the original I use for the boilerplate, it'll be fized for the final version of this season's tables.

Making sure the numbers are right and the calculations are correct is more important at this point, not to mention that I don't think anyone is being misled by the typo.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on May 03, 2011, 06:18:00 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (10)..Last Leg (9)...Prior Leg (8 )..Trend
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.4000.........3.3333.........3.6250.........Stable
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Mallory..................3.5000.........3.5555.........3.5000.........Stable
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................3.7000.........3.8888.........4.1250.........Rising Slowly
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.0000.........4.3333.........4.2500.........Stable

12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin.................................................6.000..........(Eliminated)
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord....................................................4.5555.........(Eliminated)
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina............................................6.0000.........(Eliminated)
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke.................................................5.3333.........(Eliminated)
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime..................................................7.8000.........(Eliminated)
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris.................................................6.5000.........(Eliminated)
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike....................................................7.5000.........(Eliminated)


Obviously with the final teo legs airing back-to-back next week, there won't be an updated interim average after 11 legs, just the final result for the season that will be used to update the main list.  I can tell you that except for the Trotters, the other teams can end the season with the best placement average overall. The worse any of those three teams can complete the season is with a 3.7500 placement average; the best is a 3.0000 average.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Updating for TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on May 17, 2011, 02:48:15 PM
Here are the final averages for the teams of TAR Unfinished Business.

They'll be incorporated into the primary list soon, and I'll change the thread header when that's done.

Code: [Select]
Original Season
Place Average Team.................... L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver
14-04 4.2727 18-01 Kisha-Jen 3 4 4 5 4 6 3 4 2 2 2 1 40/12 3.3333
15-04 3.0909 18-02 Flight Time-Big Easy 5 2 5 6 6 7 1 2 5 1 3 2 45/12 3.7500
17-06 4.6250 18-03 Gary-Mallory 1 9 2 3 2 1 4 6 4 3 1 3 39/12 3.2500
15-09 6.0000 18-04 Zev-Justin 4 1 1 8 8 4 2 1 1 4 4 (eliminated) 38/11 3.4545
12-05 3.6250 18-05 Kent-Vyxsin 10 7 7 9 5 5 6 3 3 5 (eliminated) 60/10 6.0000
16-02 2.5833 18-06 Jet-Cord 11 3 6 2 1 2 5 5 6 (eliminated) 41/9 4.5555
12-02 3.4545 18-07 Ronald-Christina 8 10 3 4 7 3 7 (eliminated) 42/7 6.0000
14-03 2.7500 18-08 Margie-Luke 7 5 8 1 3 8 (eliminated) 32/6 5.3333
14-02 3.9166 18-09 Cara-Jaime 6 8 9 7 9 (eliminated) 39/5 7.8000
14-06 3.5714 18-10 Mel-Mike         9 6 10 (eliminated) 25/3 8.3333
14-08 4.5000 18-11 Amanda-Kris 2 11 (eliminated) 13/2 6.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, Includes TAR 18:UB
Post by: theschnauzers on May 31, 2011, 09:16:06 PM
I hadn't planned to take weeks, but such as it is.

The rankings are now updated to including the final average placements for the teams that returned for TAR:Unfinished Business (season 18). Some interesting tidbits in the final averages. With the exception of the winners, none of the teams came within one placement of their average from their original season. The best performing team, Gary and Mallory, came in third. The last place team, Kris and Amanda, have the best performance average of any last place team ever; probably due to the fact that the first leg was an NEL. I'm sure there some other interesting statistics there, but thaose were the ones I noticed in updating the main list in the first post. (And yes, I can now correctly state than in the first ten years of TAR, not counting any regional editions elsewhere, there have been 378 Racers.)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on September 25, 2011, 01:14:50 AM
Time to prepare for the in-season ranking tracking updates for season 19.

Something to note -- with season 19, we have now had 400 people run the Race at least once. I'll let someone else figure out how many cities and miles that represents. but it has got to be enough to go to the Moon and back several times over.

I expect to start this after episode 2 or 3, depending on how those Race legs are structured (i.e., normal legs, NEL legs, no rest period pit stop legs, what have you.)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on October 19, 2011, 03:04:58 PM
I'll be compiling and organizing the information over the next couple of days, now that my notebook is back.  It's very difficult to do this using a tablet, especially since I can't use my Word Perfect files.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on October 19, 2011, 07:32:29 PM
Sorry for the technology delay, but here is the first leaderboard trends for TAR 19.
With the color chart, any reddish shade in a falling placement trend, any greenish shade is a rising placement trend, and blue is a stable placement trend.


Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (1)..Trend
Andy - Tommy..................2.500..........3.000...........4.000..........7.000.........Rising
Laurence - Zac................3.500..........3.333...........4.000..........6.000.........Stable
Jeremy - Sandy................3.500..........3.667...........4.000..........2.000.........Stable
Ernie - Cindy.................3.750..........3.333...........2.500..........1.000.........Falling Slowly
Justin - Jennifer.............4.250..........5.000...........5.500..........3.000.........Rising Slowly
Amani - Marcus................6.500..........6.667...........7.000..........5.000.........Rising Slowly
Liz - Marie...................7.750..........7.667...........7.500.........10.000.........Stable
Bill - Cathi..................8.000..........8.333...........9.000.........11.000.........Rising Slowly


Kaylani - Lisa....7.00 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.00 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.50 (eliminated)


Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Jobby on October 19, 2011, 11:12:34 PM
Only Ernie and Cindy falling... and Liz and Marie is "stable" lol. :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on October 20, 2011, 12:16:32 AM
Some of the falling goes to the eliminated teams.....and the fact that two of the first 4 legs were NELs.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on October 30, 2011, 06:02:24 PM
Forgot to get this up during the week, but here's the updated information following leg 5:

Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (5)...Last Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)..Trend


Team..........................This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (2)..Trend
Andy - Tommy..................3.000..........2.500..........3.000..........Stable
Ernie - Cindy.................3.600..........3.750..........3.333..........Stable
Laurence - Zac................4.000..........3.500..........3.333..........Falling Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy................4.200..........3.500..........3.667..........Falling Slowly
Justin - Jennifer.............4.200..........4.250..........5.000..........Rising Slowly
Amani - Marcus................5.400..........6.500..........6.667..........Rising
Bill - Cathi..................6.800..........8.000..........8.333..........Rising


Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)


Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on October 30, 2011, 08:50:24 PM
We're halfway through, and here's the latest leaderboard trends after leg 6:
Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (6)...Last Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)..Trend

Andy - Tommy..................2.666..........3.000..........2.500..........Stable
Justin - Jennifer.............3.833..........4.200..........4.250..........Rising Slowly
Ernie - Cindy.................3.833..........3.600..........3.750..........Stable
Laurence - Zac................4.000..........4.000..........3.500..........Stable
Jeremy - Sandy................4.000..........4.200..........3.500..........Stable
Amani - Marcus................5.666..........5.400..........6.500..........Rising Slowly
Bill - Cathi..................6.666..........6.800..........8.000..........Rising Slowly


Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)


Four of the teams are virtually even with one another, with one team ahead and two other teams behind the pack.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on November 06, 2011, 10:43:17 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (7)...Last Leg (6)...Prior Leg (5)..Trend

Andy - Tommy..................2.428..........2.666..........3.000..........Rising Slowly
Ernie - Cindy.................3.571..........3.833..........3.600..........Stable
Laurence - Zac................4.142..........4.000..........4.000..........Stable
Jeremy - Sandy................4.285..........4.000..........4.200..........Stable
Amani - Marcus................5.428..........5.666..........5.400..........Stable
Bill - Cathi..................6.142..........6.666..........6.800..........Rising Slowly


Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)




At the moment, Andy-Tommy would have the eighth best average placement ever, if their current average (2.428) were their final average (yes, even with 5 first places out of seven legs). The only team ever with a better average after 7 legs is Eric-Jeremy (TAR 9) who had a 7-leg average placement of 1.285 (5 first places and 2 second places).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on November 16, 2011, 10:14:49 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (8 )...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Trend

Andy - Tommy..................2.500..........2.428..........2.666..........Stable
Ernie - Cindy.................3.250..........3.571..........3.833..........Rising Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy................4.375..........4.285..........4.000..........Falling Slowly
Amani - Marcus................5.250..........5.428..........5.666..........Rising Slowly
Bill - Cathi..................5.675..........6.142..........6.666..........Rising Slowly

Laurence - Zac....4.375 (eliminated)
Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)



The order of the five remaining teams has not changed in three weeks. and this suggests the relative strengths of the teams are pretty well set.  The odds favor Andy-Tommy, Ernie-Cindy, and Jeremy-Sandy as the final three teams, but given the relative closeness among the five teams , there is room for a surprise by the time we get down to the final three teams.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Jobby on November 16, 2011, 11:19:19 PM
Thanks for the analysis! It's amazing with 5 leg wins Andy and Tommy still do not have the best averages thanks to their sucky first leg. :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Best Loser on November 17, 2011, 12:08:57 AM
Thanks for the analysis! It's amazing with 5 leg wins Andy and Tommy still do not have the best averages thanks to their sucky first leg. :lol:

Yeah, it's interesting how several really good teams have lousy first legs that ruin their averages. Derek & Drew, Colin & Christie, and Ron & Kelly come to mind.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Jobby on November 17, 2011, 12:32:10 AM
Thanks for the analysis! It's amazing with 5 leg wins Andy and Tommy still do not have the best averages thanks to their sucky first leg. :lol:

Yeah, it's interesting how several really good teams have lousy first legs that ruin their averages. Derek & Drew, Colin & Christie, and Ron & Kelly come to mind.

Nick and Starr. :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on November 17, 2011, 09:20:24 PM
In the past, I've calculated these averages excluding the first leg to see if it helped at all; that's how frequently we've seen good teams have poor first legs.

But doing so makes it harder to compare teams between seasons. The primary difference between Andy-Tommy and Eric-Jeremy is that when Eric-Jeremy didn't finish in first in their season, they almost always finished second and that's a performance that is next to impossible to match.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on November 20, 2011, 09:17:51 PM
With the no-rest-period, start the next leg ending with the first team to check in, we're not able to compute an updated leaderboard trends for leg 9, but legs 9 and 10 will be posted together next week.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on November 27, 2011, 09:20:22 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Team...................This Leg (10)..Previous Leg (9).Prior Leg (8 )..Prior Leg (7)......Trend

Andy - Tommy...........2.400..........2.666............2.500...........2.428..........Stable
Ernie - Cindy..........3.100..........3.111............3.250...........3.571..........Rising Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy.........4.200..........4.222............4.375...........4.285..........Stable
Amani - Marcus.........4.800..........4.777............5.250...........5.428..........Rising Slowly
Bill - Cathi...........5.500..........5.555............5.675...........6.142..........Rising Slowly

Laurence - Zac....4.375 (eliminated)
Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)




The final five, now final four teams have remained in the same order since leg 6. The highest averaging remaining team, Amani-Marcus seem to be improving, but that’s because their average placement has been higher than the number of remaining teams. (Same thing for Bill-Cathi until their elimination on this leg.) Disregarding that, one could say that the teams have basically been stable in their placements since leg 6 with very little movement. There’s no way of being certain but the law of averages (pun intended) would suggest that the last eliminated team ought to be Amani-Marcus. But that hasn’t always been proven to be the case in the past, so no guarantees. :)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on December 04, 2011, 09:04:44 PM
Here's the last leaderboard trends update for TAR 19:

Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:

Team...................This Leg (11)..Previous Leg (10).Prior Leg (9)..Prior Leg (8 )...Trend

Ernie - Cindy..........3.000..........3.100.............3.111..........3.250............Rising Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy.........3.727..........4.200.............4.222..........4.375............Rising Slowly
Amani - Marcus.........4.636..........4.800.............4.777..........5.250............Rising Slowly

Andy - Tommy......2.545 (eliminated)
Bill - Cathi......5.500 (eliminated)
Laurence - Zac....4.375 (eliminated)
Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)


Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Flamant on December 04, 2011, 09:47:01 PM
Andy - Tommy......2.545 (eliminated)

Was wondering... I did A/T's average and I came with 2,6364 :duno:
7+1+1+1+5+1+1+3+4+1+4=29
29/11=2,6364
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on December 04, 2011, 10:11:46 PM
Typo that had me hit the keys next to the correct keys. So it is 2.636

But Andy-Tommy did set both records I mentioned anyhow, as Oswald-Danny averaged 2.666 when they finished 4th during the TARAS season.

That's why I normally try to do this the next day so I'm not tired. :)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on December 11, 2011, 09:46:03 PM
Here's the final averages for the TAR 19 teams and the leg by leg placements.

I'm trying to work around the dislike BBCode has for the TAB spacing to line up the information so it looks better.


Code: [Select]
Team L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver

19-01 Ernie - Cindy 1 4 5 5 3 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 34/12 2.833
19-02 Jeremy - Sandy 2 6 3 3 7 3 6 5 3 2 1 2 43/12 3.583
19-03 Amani - Marcus 5 9 6 6 1 7 4 4 1 4 3 3 54/12 4.416

19-04 Andy - Tommy 7 1 1 1 5 1 1 3 4 1 4 29/11 2.636
19-05 Bill - Cathi 11 7 7 7 2 6 3 2 5 5 50/10 5.500
19-06 Laurence - Zac 6 2 2 4 6 4 5 6 35/8 4.375
19-07 Justin - Jennifer3 8 4 2 4 2 7 30/7 4.285
19-08 Liz - Marie 10 5 8 8 8 39/5 7.800
19-09 Kaylani - Lisa 9 3 9 21/3 7.000
19-10 Ethan - Jenna 4 10 14/2 7.000
19-11 Ron - Bill 8 11 19/2 9.500


Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Best Loser on December 12, 2011, 03:18:36 AM
Amani & Marcus's average should be 4.417. It's 53/12, not 54/12
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: Jobby on December 12, 2011, 08:46:29 AM
Wow, thanks for all the analysis this season, theschnauzers! :cmas16
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams Includes updates for TAR 19
Post by: theschnauzers on December 12, 2011, 09:06:12 AM
Amani & Marcus's average should be 4.417. It's 53/12, not 54/12

I don't round off fractions in my computations, so the correct value is 4.4166666... and I drop everything after the third digit after the decimal. So I should have gotten 4.416.

It may be a little bit of time before I update the primary list in the first post; I want to try and use colors more liberally and I also want to format all the prior seasons by season rankings with the individual leg placements; which is a formatting task. That was one reason for using the "code" code to see if I could get it to work at all. It required some tinkering of the embedded "TAB" codes used by Corel WordPerfect and it looks as if I'll have to so each line manually to get everything to look right.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 19 (refreshed!)
Post by: theschnauzers on December 27, 2011, 12:40:29 AM
Updated list through TAR 19 now in first post with some color tweaks. I'm also posting as a new thread the season by season leg-by-leg placements for all teams. That list will be colorful!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 19 (refreshed!)
Post by: theschnauzers on February 27, 2012, 03:30:27 PM
It's time to start tracking the TAR 20 teams.
The rolling performance format should likely start appearing next week.

For now, though, here are the teams' average placement through the first 2 of the 12 legs. Unlike the leaderboard thread (which I'll update as well), teams are ranked in average placement order.:
Code: [Select]
Team....................L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver

Rachel-Dave 1 1 2/2 1.0000
Art-J.J. 3 2 5/2 2.5000
Brendon-Rachel 2 4 6/2 3.0000
Nary-Jamie 4 6 10/2 5.0000
Kerri-Stacy 7 5 12/2 6.0000
Mark-Bopper 9 3 12/2 6.0000
Vanessa-Ralph 5 7 12/2 6.0000
Elliot-Andrew 6 9 15/2 7.5000
Joey-Danny 10 8 18/2 9.0000
20-10 Dave-Cherie 8 10 (eliminated) 18/2 9.0000
20-11 Misa-Maiya 11 (eliminated) 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: bobnlori on February 28, 2012, 09:59:04 AM
interesting. while the pure math make it seem like the wrong teams won a lot, sometimes the rankings are a little skewed by split second finishes. Colin was a beast, Christie was eye candy, they put a rule in after his season that the road blocks had to be shared. He did all but one on that race.
I actually have found someone with more passion for the race than me and my girlfriend would disagree, but you have all the facts. I have them all on DVD and memories
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: David on February 28, 2012, 12:42:06 PM
I think Bill & Cathy total is 53 55 :lol: , not 50. JSYK :tup:

Great job! Anyways.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: TARFansurvivor on February 28, 2012, 12:55:30 PM
I hope that Rachel and Dave bets the record,with most wins. It is now 7 wins in the Us-version.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: choroneko on February 28, 2012, 12:58:39 PM
I hope Dave & Rachel wouldn't get first place too often anymore. I like them but it would make the race boring, like what Andy & Tommy did. I want the prizes to be distributed widely as possible. So many teams will go home happy.  :<3
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Prophet on February 28, 2012, 01:09:03 PM
I hope that Rachel and Dave bets the record,with most wins. It is now 7 wins in the Us-version.

Meghan and Cheyne set that awesome record <33
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: TARFansurvivor on February 28, 2012, 01:31:11 PM
I hope that Rachel and Dave bets the record,with most wins. It is now 7 wins in the Us-version.

Meghan and Cheyne set that awesome record <33

They are tied with Nick & Starr from season 13.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: TARFansurvivor on February 28, 2012, 01:32:58 PM
I hope Dave & Rachel wouldn't get first place too often anymore. I like them but it would make the race boring, like what Andy & Tommy did. I want the prizes to be distributed widely as possible. So many teams will go home happy.  :<3
I just wanna see a new record.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on February 28, 2012, 02:31:15 PM
There is a second thread that contains the source information on the team rankings.

Ranking The Teams by Season and Leg (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,26663.0.html)

Quote
I think Bill & Cathy total is 53, not 50. JSYK :tup:

Great job! Anyways.

Actually the raw total should have been 55 and the average was correct, though. Fixed in other thread and here.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 09, 2012, 07:05:38 PM
Here are the teams' average placement through the first 3 of the 12 legs. I start the leaderboard trends after the next episode; teams are ranked in average placement order.:
Code: [Select]
Team....................L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver

[code]
Team....................L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver

Art-J.J. 3 2 1 6/3 2.0000
Rachel-Dave 1 1 6 8/3 2.6666
Brendon-Rachel 2 4 2 8/3 2.6666
Nary-Jamie 4 6 5 15/3 5.0000
Mark-Bopper 9 3 4 16/3 5.3333
Kerri-Stacy 7 5 7 19/3 6.3333
Vanessa-Ralph 5 7 8 20/3 6.6666
Joey-Danny 10 8 3 21/3 7.0000
20-09 Elliot-Andrew 6 9 9 (eliminated) 24/3 8.0000
20-10 Dave-Cherie 8 10 (eliminated) 18/2 9.0000
20-11 Misa-Maiya 11 (eliminated) 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 11, 2012, 08:43:56 PM
Figuring out the trends for several of the teams was quite easy for several of the teams, as they have the exact same average placements for at least two of the last three weeks.

And we have two groups of teams (the top 4 and the bottom 4) based on their placement averages to this point:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:

Team............This Leg (4)....Last Leg (3)....Prior Leg (2)...First Leg (1)...Trend
Art-J.J. 1.7500 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 slowly rising
Rachel-Dave 2.5000 2.6666 1.0000 1.0000 slowly falling
Brendon-Rachel 3.5000 2.6666 3.0000 2.0000 slowly falling
Nary-Jamie 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 4.0000 stable
Mark-Bopper 6.0000 5.3333 6.0000 9.0000 stable
Vanessa-Ralph 6.0000 6.6666 6.0000 5.0000 stable
Joey-Danny 6.0000 7.0000 9.0000 10.0000 rising
Kerri-Stacy 6.5000 6.3333 6.0000 7.0000 slowly falling
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Declive on March 11, 2012, 08:58:37 PM
I would say that Kerri and Stacey are stable actually.

7 -> 6 -> 6.3 -> 6.5
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Jobby on March 12, 2012, 12:53:33 AM
The middle pack teams are really middle while the back pack teams are really falling.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 13, 2012, 03:02:02 PM
I would say that Kerri and Stacey are stable actually.

7 -> 6 -> 6.3 -> 6.5

I have it in the correct order; the most recent leg is first reading from left to right and the least recent leg, in this case the first leg is at the right end. That column gets dropped when the next leg is placed on the left side.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Declive on March 13, 2012, 06:19:57 PM
I would say that Kerri and Stacey are stable actually.

7 -> 6 -> 6.3 -> 6.5

I have it in the correct order; the most recent leg is first reading from left to right and the least recent leg, in this case the first leg is at the right end. That column gets dropped when the next leg is placed on the left side.

I know , but they are better than 7 , their worst average so far.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 14, 2012, 01:22:51 AM
If you could read Hebrew or Arabic then it wouldn't confuse you so much. 

Their average after the first leg was 7.0000. After the second leg, they finished that leg is fifth place, bring their average to 6.0000. The last two legs, that team finished in seventh place both legs, so their average went up -- to 6.3333 after the third leg and now, to 6.5000 after the most recent leg. in order to show the basis for the trend I list the average after the most recent leg first, then the prior legs in reverse chronological order. Next week, the leg one average will be dropped and you won't see it listed. the fifth leg average will then be the column posted to the left of the others and the trend label will be adjusted as appropriate at that point.

Of course, I'll drop the team that is eliminated as who cares what their trend is? They're out!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 22, 2012, 02:38:43 PM
Some movement this week, and the lowest performing team was eliminated (Kerry-Stacey):

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:

Team...........This Leg (5)...Last Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)..Prior Leg (2)..Trend
Art-J.J. 1.6000 1.7500 2.0000 2.5000 slowly rising
Rachel-Dave 2.8000 2.5000 2.6666 1.0000 slowly falling
Brendon-Rachel 3.8000 3.5000 2.6666 3.0000 slowly falling
Nary-Jamie 5.4000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 slowly falling
Mark-Bopper 6.0000 6.0000 5.3333 6.0000 stable
Vanessa-Ralph 5.4000 6.0000 6.6666 6.0000 slowly rising
Joey-Danny 5.2000 6.0000 7.0000 9.0000 rapidly rising
Kerri-Stacy 6.8000 6.5000 6.3333 6.0000 slowly falling
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 26, 2012, 10:53:46 PM
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Team...........This Leg (6)...Last Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)..Prior Leg (3)..Trend
Art-J.J. 1.6666 1.6000 1.7500 2.0000 stable
Rachel-Dave 2.5000 2.8000 2.5000 2.6666 stable
Brendon-Rachel 3.8333 3.8000 3.5000 2.6666 slowly falling
Nary-Jamie 5.3333 5.4000 5.0000 5.0000 stable
Mark-Bopper 5.5000 6.0000 6.0000 5.3333 stable
Vanessa-Ralph 5.5000 5.4000 6.0000 6.6666 stable
Eliminated:
Joey-Danny 5.5000 5.2000 6.0000 7.0000 stable
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Jobby on March 27, 2012, 09:53:48 PM
Looking at Art and JJ, slowly rising and stable disturbs me a hell lot. :(
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 27, 2012, 11:57:02 PM
The two teams eliminated since Eliott-Andrew's elimination 4 legs ago, were the lowest average placement team that week.

This season is remarkable for the overall consistency we've been seeing. This is half way through the Race, and I think it's a good bet that at least two of the final three teams will be two of the teams at the top at this point. That's happened a few other times (season 1, season 9) and it's one of those seasons where only two teams have won half the legs in the Race already.

It'll be interesting to see if we ever get a leg that really shakes things up. A lot of the legs this season have had a linear quality about them. A team might have a better leg one week and fall back, or have a poor leg, and then rebound, but the overall lack of shifting placements is really surprising.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Best Loser on March 28, 2012, 12:38:20 AM
What I really find interesting is that there are times when all the teams are grouped together, and even then the teams all seem to fall into the same basic order. I think the only ways there will be any real shake up is if a Road Block was a luck task or if the "better" teams got on a flight that arrived after the "not better" teams.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Jobby on March 28, 2012, 08:46:40 AM
What I really find interesting is that there are times when all the teams are grouped together, and even then the teams all seem to fall into the same basic order. I think the only ways there will be any real shake up is if a Road Block was a luck task or if the "better" teams got on a flight that arrived after the "not better" teams.

I can't help but to agree with this. Art and JJ and Dave and Rachel are really "good" and "competitive" racers as compared to the other "mediocre" teams this season.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Jobby on March 28, 2012, 08:47:45 AM
I hope Dave & Rachel wouldn't get first place too often anymore. I like them but it would make the race boring, like what Andy & Tommy did. I want the prizes to be distributed widely as possible. So many teams will go home happy.  :<3

 :lol: You got your wish and Art and JJ won the next 3 legs. :lol:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 08, 2012, 09:19:50 PM
Some movement among the bottom three, but we still have two teams finishing the leg with a tied average placement, and there's a sign of very slow momentum among the top three teams;

Code: [Select]
[size=6pt]Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:

Team............This Leg (7)....Last Leg (6)....Prior Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)...Trend

Art-J.J. 1.8571 1.6666 1.6000 1.7500 slowly falling
Rachel-Dave 2.2857 2.5000 2.8000 2.5000 slowly rising
Brendon-Rachel 3.8571 3.8333 3.8000 3.5000 slowly falling
Mark-Bopper 5.0000 5.5000 6.0000 6.0000 rising
Vanessa-Ralph 5.4285 5.5000 5.4000 6.0000 stable
Nary-Jamie 5.4285 5.3333 5.4000 5.0000 stable


[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 17, 2012, 10:54:30 AM
No real change in the relative trends, except that Nary-Jamie break the three-way near tie among the bottom three by being eliminated, and had the lowest placement average doing so.

The top three remain in the same order although it is tightening up a little. But all of the teams have had very slow trends this season, and that continues:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Team...........This Leg (8)...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Prior Leg (5)..Trend

Art-J.J. 2.0000 1.8571 1.6666 1.6000 slowly falling
Rachel-Dave 2.2500 2.2857 2.5000 2.8000 slowly rising
Brendon-Rachel 3.8750 3.8571 3.8333 3.8000 stable
Mark-Bopper 4.5000 5.0000 5.5000 6.0000 slowly rising
Vanessa-Ralph 5.3750 5.4285 5.5000 5.4000 slowly falling
Eliminated:
Nary-Jamie 5.5000 5.4285 5.3333 5.4000 stable
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Best Loser on April 17, 2012, 12:20:57 PM
I think for Vanessa & Ralph you meant to type 5.375 rather than 5.735, which would make them stable.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 17, 2012, 04:28:37 PM
Yea, that was a typo in transferring the data manually.  Thanks
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: Declive on April 17, 2012, 04:53:41 PM
Hmm , you didn't change them to stable...
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 17, 2012, 09:05:37 PM
Looking at four legs, yes, one might describe them as stable, but over the last three legs, it is a very slow rise. Last week, stable within a range was a more apt description. It's borderline either way. But there are only five teams left, so all of the averages are likely to slowly rise for the rest of the Race, if the teams keep the current order, as they have for a while.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 27, 2012, 01:46:44 PM
We are on the verge of some shifts in the order of placement averages among the remaining five teams; but of course one of them will be eliminated in the coming leg in India as CBS has already said four teams make it to the finale the following week:

Code: [Select]
[size=6pt]Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:

Team...........This Leg (9)...Last Leg (8)...Prior Leg (7)..Prior Leg (6)..Trend
Art-J.J. 2.1111 2.0000 1.8571 1.6666 slowly falling
Rachel-Dave 2.1111 2.2500 2.2857 2.5000 slowly rising
Brendon-Rachel 3.6666 3.8750 3.8571 3.8333 slowly rising
Mark-Bopper 4.5555 4.5000 5.0000 5.5000 stable
Vanessa-Ralph 5.2222 5.3750 5.4285 5.5000 slowly rising


[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Updated)
Post by: theschnauzers on May 11, 2012, 05:02:28 PM
The main list has now been updated to include TAR 20.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Updated)
Post by: theschnauzers on October 30, 2012, 12:25:15 PM
I've got notes to organize for TAR 21 (in progress) and I'll get the current leaderboard rankings and averages up shortly. Bumping so I can find the thread.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Updated)
Post by: theschnauzers on January 19, 2013, 08:09:46 PM
I'm behind on updating this for this past season (21), but I will get to it within this coming week.

I've got to format the information from season 21 to insert into this thread, and I need to be alert and wide awake when I do.

:)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 21 (new update)
Post by: theschnauzers on January 26, 2013, 11:41:35 PM
Updated to include season 21 teams!

Sorry it took this long, but this winter weather has been tough on me this year.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 21 (new update)
Post by: Jobby on January 26, 2013, 11:49:44 PM
Thank you! Josh and Brent with a 4 plus average is not surprising but I was surprised they still did a little bit better than Dan and Jordan, considering Dan and Jordan won a Fast Forward (one leg) before the finale.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 21 (new update)
Post by: theschnauzers on January 27, 2013, 10:44:35 PM
After fixing the computational error re: Josh and Brent, they ended up with a higher placement average (doing worse, in other words) than Jordan and Daniel; although the values of the averages are pretty close.

What's really surprising is that Josh and Brent ended up with a less favorable average than half of the other remaining teams; I don't think we've ever seen that happen before.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 21 (new update)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 24, 2013, 04:35:34 PM
I had planned to start the leaderboard trends tracking with leg 3 for season 22, but that was sidetracked by the no rest period pit stop and the leg being carried over to the beginning of the following episode.
So it's leg 5, and I'm caught up.
I'm posting the trends after leg 4 as well as leg 5 simply because I had it done, and I hate wasting the effort I put into it.

Leg 4
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:

Team..............This Leg (4)....Last Leg (3)....Prior Leg (2)....First Leg (1).......Trend
David-Connor 1.7500 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 slowly rising
Bates-Anthony 3.2500 2.0000 1.5000 2.0000 falling
Pam-Winnie 4.7500 5.6666 6.5000 4.0000 rising
Joey-Meghan 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 6.0000 stable
Mona-Beth 6.0000 6.0000 5.5000 5.0000 stable
Caroline-Jennifer 6.7500 7.6666 8.5000 10.0000 rising
Max-Katie 7.0000 8.3333 8.5000 9.0000 rising
Chuck-Wynona 7.2500 7.0000 6.0000 7.0000 falling
 


Leg 5
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:

Team....................This Leg (5)....Last Leg (4)....Prior Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)...Trend
Bates-Anthony 3.4000 3.2500 2.0000 1.5000 falling slowly
Pam-Winnie 4.0000 4.7500 5.6666 6.5000 rising slowly
Joey-Meghan 5.2000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 stable
Mona-Beth 5.4000 6.0000 6.0000 5.5000 rising slowly
Max-Katie 6.0000 7.0000 8.3333 8.5000 rising
Caroline-Jennifer 6.4000 6.7500 7.6666 8.5000 rising slowly
Chuck-Wynona 7.2000 7.2500 7.0000 6.0000 stable
 
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 21 (new update)
Post by: Declive on March 24, 2013, 05:08:10 PM
Mona and Beth could be "stable"
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on March 25, 2013, 06:52:48 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Code: [Select]
Team....................This Leg (6)....Last Leg (5)....Prior Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)...Trend
Bates-Anthony 3.0000 3.4000 3.2500 2.0000 stable
Pam-Winnie 3.6666 4.0000 4.7500 5.6666 rising slowly
Joey-Meghan 5.0000 5.2000 5.0000 5.0000 stable
Mona-Beth 5.5000 5.4000 6.0000 6.0000 stable
Max-Katie 6.1666 6.0000 7.0000 8.3333 rising slowly
Caroline-Jennifer 6.1666 6.4000 6.7500 7.6666 rising slowly
Chuck-Wynona 6.5000 7.2000 7.2500 7.0000 rising slowly
 
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Jobby on March 26, 2013, 08:51:23 AM
As mentioned by me somewhere else, this might be the worst average by a Final 7 (average of all the average of all teams) ever in any season of TAR.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on March 26, 2013, 11:48:57 PM
we're getting a lot of vertical movement up and down for most of the teams this time around, which would explain a lot of it. That isn't directly shown with the placement averages as such which is where the other thread comes in showing the leg by leg placements for each team.

It would be hard for this season's final three (whoever they are and I honestly don't know) to come up with an even lower placement average than last season's, though.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Jobby on March 27, 2013, 03:04:03 AM
That might not be the case if Chuck and Wynona and Caroline and Jennifer are in the F3 though (and if they continue to Lumelia). :ascared

Same case for Max and Katie.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: David on March 27, 2013, 05:24:22 AM
As mentioned by me somewhere else, this might be the worst average by a Final 7 (average of all the average of all teams) ever in any season of TAR.

J/J and D/C eliminated just rise the average quite a lot.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on April 04, 2013, 12:56:43 PM
Leaderboard trends after 7 legs:

Code: [Select]
Team..............This Leg (7)...Last Leg (6)...Prior Leg (5)..Prior Leg (4)..Trend

Bates-Anthony 2.7142 3.0000 3.4000 3.2500 rising slowly
Joey-Meghan 5.0000 5.0000 5.2000 5.0000 stable
Mona-Beth 5.0000 5.5000 5.4000 6.0000 rising slowly
Caroline-Jennifer 5.7142 6.1666 6.4000 6.7500 rising slowly
Max-Katie 6.1428 6.1666 6.0000 7.0000 rising slowly
Chuck-Wynona 6.1428 6.5000 7.2000 7.2500 rising slowly


Pam-Winnie (eliminated) 4.1428 3.6666 4.0000 4.7500

Well, because of which teams have been eliminated the last three legs, i.e., five of the six remaining teams have a worse placement average (5.0000 or worse) than the last three teams to be eliminated (Pam-Winnie 4.1428; David-Connor 3.0000; Jessica-John 3.7500), you can expect average placements for most of those five teams to rise considerably over second half of the Race.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Theo on April 04, 2013, 09:51:11 PM
:lol: at Max & Katie have the same average with Chuck & Wynona. My two favorite teams :ghug:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Hooky on April 08, 2013, 02:43:59 PM
Thanks for keeping such good track of this!

It is always interesting to see when an eliminated team ends up with a much better average than teams that make it all the way to the end. Especially when that team was eliminated early.

Poor performance in the beginning of the Race invariably seems to put a permanent damper on a team's end-of-Race average.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on April 08, 2013, 05:25:49 PM
Thanks for keeping such good track of this!

It is always interesting to see when an eliminated team ends up with a much better average than teams that make it all the way to the end. Especially when that team was eliminated early.

Poor performance in the beginning of the Race invariably seems to put a permanent damper on a team's end-of-Race average.

Many final 3 teams have had a bad first leg, but having several bad legs is hard to recover from absent a big dose of sheer luck.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Jimmer on April 08, 2013, 05:27:08 PM
 :o at Max and Katie having the same average as Chuck and Wynona!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on April 21, 2013, 03:31:01 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Code: [Select]
Team..........................This Leg (8)...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Prior Leg (5)..Trend

Bates-Anthony 2.5000 2.7142 3.0000 3.4000 rising slowly
Mona-Beth 4.6250 5.0000 5.5000 5.4000 rising slowly
Joey-Meghan 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.2000 stable
Caroline-Jennifer 5.5000 5.7142 6.1666 6.4000 rising slowly
Max-Katie 5.7500 6.1428 6.1666 6.0000 rising slowly


Chuck-Wynona(eliminated) 6.1250 6.1428 6.5000 7.2000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Jimmer on April 21, 2013, 03:38:22 PM
Shouldn't Chuck & Wynona be 'rising slowly'
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on April 21, 2013, 04:40:26 PM
Shouldn't Chuck & Wynona be 'rising slowly'
Their average placement in these last few legs is as close to the same as possible. so "stable" would have been correct had they not been eliminated. I took that out since it shouldn't matter as they're now an eliminated team.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: theschnauzers on April 29, 2013, 10:30:35 PM
Leaderboard trends heading into the finale stretch:

Code: [Select]
size=6pt]Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Team..............This Leg (10)..Last Leg (9)...Prior Leg (8)..Prior Leg (7)..Trend
Bates-Anthony 2.6000 2.6666 2.5000 2.7142 stable
Mona-Beth 4.6000 4.6666 4.6250 5.0000 rising slowly
Max-Katie 4.8000 5.2222 5.7500 6.1428 rising slowly
Caroline-Jennifer 5.0000 5.2222 5.5000 5.7142 rising slowly


Joey-Meghan 4.7000 4.6666 5.0000 5.0000 eliminated

With the finale and two legs, I'll be posting the final placement averages for all teams soon after the finale, and I'll be incorporating the TAR 22 teams into the overall placement average list in the O.P. soon thereafter.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Jobby on April 30, 2013, 01:27:29 PM
It's a little shocking that even after Maxie won 2 legs, their average is still barely just a little better than the singers and still worst than the moms. :O

Looks like you really cannot screw up more than 3 legs, otherwise those big numbers are there to stay.

And isn't it ironic that the singers and Maxie were the last 3 teams to the pit-stop on the very first leg? :lol3:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-21 *updating TAR 22*
Post by: Declive on April 30, 2013, 01:36:44 PM
It's a little shocking that even after Maxie won 2 legs, their average is still barely just a little better than the singers and still worst than the moms. :O

Looks like you really cannot screw up more than 3 legs, otherwise those big numbers are there to stay.

And isn't it ironic that the singers and Maxie were the last 3 teams to the pit-stop on the very first leg? :lol3:

Trey and Lexi and Chippendales have also done that.  :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-22 *updated*
Post by: theschnauzers on May 12, 2013, 03:00:01 PM
I've updated the master list in the opening post to include all the TAR 22 teams final placement averages.

Bates and Anthony have the fifth best average among winning teams, and the tenth best average among all teams, so they had a very good Race, possibly helped by the early elimination of some well performing teams.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on September 29, 2013, 05:34:06 PM
I will be posting the weekly leaderboard and placement average trends for TAR 23 after leg 2 airs, which I assume will be next week's episode.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on October 19, 2013, 12:02:49 PM
Leaderboard Trends Season 23 after leg 3:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 3 Legs:

Team................This Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)....First Leg (1).......Trend
Tim -- Marie 5.6666 4.5000 1.0000 Falling
Nicole -- Travis 2.3333 3.0000 2.0000 Stable
Nicky -- Kim 5.6666 7.0000 5.0000 Unclear
Ally -- Ashley 6.6666 6.5000 6.0000 Stable
Leo -- Jamal 5.0000 4.5000 7.0000 Unclear
Jason -- Amy 5.0000 6.5000 8.0000 Rising
Tim -- Danny 6.3333 7.5000 9.0000 Rising
Brandon -- Adam 6.0000 6.5000 10.0000 Rising
 
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: Jobby on October 19, 2013, 08:36:08 PM
Loving the obvious front runner: Nicole and Travis and the TAR 22 trend of all the 5 to 6 averages for most teams.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on October 20, 2013, 10:48:18 PM
Obviously with a JKR pit stop and only one team having reached the pit stop, I won't be able to update this until after next week's episode, which will have both the leg 4 and leg 5 leaderboard trends update.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on December 01, 2013, 03:51:41 PM
I'm posting the leaderboard trends after each leg starting with leg 3 through the most recent leg 9 below. Sorry for the delays, but things have not been in my favor this season:


Leaderboard Trends After 3 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..............This Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (1).......Trend
Tim -- Marie 5.6666 4.5000 1.0000 Falling
Nicole -- Travis 2.3333 3.0000 2.0000 Stable
Nicky -- Kim 5.6666 7.0000 5.0000 Unclear
Ally -- Ashley 6.6666 6.5000 6.0000 Stable
Leo -- Jamal 5.0000 4.5000 7.0000 Uncleat
Jason -- Amy 5.0000 6.5000 8.0000 Rising
Tim -- Danny 6.3333 7.5000 9.0000 Rising
Brandon -- Adam 6.0000 6.5000 10.0000 Rising





Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..............This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (1).......Trend
Tim -- Marie 5.5000 5.6666 4.5000 1.0000 falling
Nicole -- Travis 2.5000 2.3333 3.0000 2.0000 slowly falling
Nicky -- Kim 6.2500 5.6666 7.0000 5.0000 slowly falling
Ally -- Ashley 6.7500 6.6666 6.5000 6.0000 slowly falling
Leo -- Jamal 4.7500 5.0000 4.5000 7.0000 rising
Jason -- Amy 4.2500 5.0000 6.5000 8.0000 rising
Tim -- Danny 6.2500 6.3333 7.5000 9.0000 rising
Brandon -- Adam 4.7500 6.0000 6.5000 10.0000 rising

Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..............This Leg (5)...Last Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)..Prior Leg (2).......Trend

Tim -- Marie 4.6000 5.5000 5.6666 4.5000 stable
Nicole -- Travis 2.6000 2.5000 2.3333 3.0000 stable
Nicky -- Kim 5.8000 6.2500 5.6666 7.0000 slowly rising
Ally -- Ashley 6.8000 6.7500 6.6666 6.5000 stable
Leo -- Jamal 5.0000 4.7500 5.0000 4.5000 stable
Jason -- Amy 3.8000 4.2500 5.0000 6.5000 rising
Tim -- Danny 6.0000 6.2500 6.3333 7.5000 slowly rising
Brandon -- Adam 5.4000 4.7500 6.0000 6.5000 unclear


Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team...................This Leg (6)...Last Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)..Prior Leg (3)..Trend

Tim -- Marie 4.5000 4.6000 5.5000 5.6666 slowly rising
Nicole -- Travis 2.3333 2.6000 2.5000 2.3333 stable
Nicky -- Kim 5.1666 5.8000 6.2500 5.6666 slowly rising
Ally -- Ashley 6.6666 6.8000 6.7500 6.6666 stable
Leo -- Jamal 4.6666 5.0000 4.7500 5.0000 stable
Jason -- Amy 4.0000 3.8000 4.2500 5.0000 stable
Tim -- Danny 6.1666 6.0000 6.2500 6.3333 stable

Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team...................This Leg (7)...Last Leg (6)...Prior Leg (5)..Prior Leg (4)..Trend

Tim -- Marie 4.4285 4.5000 4.6000 5.5000 slowly rising
Nicole -- Travis 2.4285 2.3333 2.6000 2.5000 stable
Nicky -- Kim 5.2857 5.1666 5.8000 6.2500 stable
Ally -- Ashley 6.4285 6.6666 6.8000 6.7500 stable
Leo -- Jamal 4.1428 4.6666 5.0000 4.7500 slowly rising
Jason -- Amy 3.7142 4.0000 3.8000 4.2500 stable

Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..................This Leg (8)...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Prior Leg (5)..Trend

Tim -- Marie 4.2500 4.4285 4.5000 4.6000 stable
Nicole -- Travis 2.2500 2.4285 2.3333 2.6000 stable
Nicky -- Kim 5.3750 5.2857 5.1666 5.8000 stable
Ally -- Ashley 6.2500 6.4285 6.6666 6.8000 slowly rising
Leo -- Jamal 4.1250 4.1428 4.6666 5.0000 stable
Jason -- Amy 3.5000 3.7142 4.0000 3.8000 slowly rising

Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team...................This Leg (9)...Last Leg (8)...Prior Leg (7)..Prior Leg (6)..Trend

Tim -- Marie 4.0000 4.2500 4.4285 4.5000 slowly rising
Nicole -- Travis 2.4444 2.2500 2.4285 2.3333 stable
Ally -- Ashley 6.1111 6.2500 6.4285 6.6666 slowly rising
Leo -- Jamal 3.7777 4.1250 4.1428 4.6666 slowly rising
Jason -- Amy 3.4444 3.5000 3.7142 4.0000 slowly rising
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: georgiapeach on December 01, 2013, 04:19:10 PM
I forget how to read this...
 
Found it!
 
Quote

The numbers before the team name on each row shows that team's season and that team's overall order of finish in that season. The fraction is a numerator equal to the total ordinal placements from the legs that team raced in added together, divided by the number of legs that team raced. The final number is the average placement taken out to a value of one-ten thousandth. Where more than one team has the same average, a team that completed more legs is ranked ahead of a team that completed fewer legs, and then, for teams that competed for the same number of legs, a team from an earlier season is ranked ahead of a team from a later season. Finally, where there are teams from the same season, with the same average, and lasted for the same number of legs, the team that placed closer to first place is ranked ahead of the other team.

Keep in mind that in seasons 6, 7, 9, and 10, there was an überleg (which is treated as two legs for the purposes of this list), that seasons 18 and 19 had legs with pit stops that had no intervening rest period before the next leg started; that 12 teams competed in seasons 3, 4, 10, and 15, and that ten teams competed in season 8. (In season 22, David-Connor decided to withdraw after starting the fifth leg due to David’s injury in leg 2 that required immediate surgery. While they reached the pit stop before any of the teams completed the leg, they are shown as checking in last for computation purposes.) 

...
 
The lower the average, the better the team placed on average. The best possible average for a team that reaches the final three (for an 12-leg race with 11 teams) and therefore, completes the Race would be:
(1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1)  12/12= 1.0000.

The worse possible average for a team that reaches the final three (for an 12-leg race with 11 teams) would be:
(11+11+10+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+3) 87/12=7.2500.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on December 01, 2013, 05:21:17 PM
Peach, that's for the master list in the first post; the seasonal leaderboard are the source for the team rankings in the master list.

:)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: georgiapeach on December 01, 2013, 05:25:09 PM
Okay thanks!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on December 01, 2013, 09:09:29 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..................This Leg (10)..Last Leg (9)...Prior Leg (8)..Prior Leg (7)..Trend

Tim -- Marie 3.8000 4.0000 4.2500 4.4285 slowly rising
Nicole -- Travis 2.5000 2.4444 2.2500 2.4285 stable
Leo -- Jamal 3.8000 3.7777 4.1250 4.1428 slowly rising
Jason -- Amy 3.2000 3.4444 3.5000 3.7142 slowly rising
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 *updating*
Post by: theschnauzers on December 08, 2013, 11:38:30 PM
For completeness, here is the leaderboard trends after leg 11:
Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team...............This Leg (11)..Last Leg (10)...Prior Leg (9)...Prior Leg (8)..Trend

Tim -- Marie 3.5454 3.8000 4.0000 4.2500 unclear
Nicole -- Travis 2.5454 2.5000 2.4444 2.2500 stable
Leo -- Jamal 3.8181 3.8000 3.7777 4.1250 stable
Jason -- Amy 3.0909 3.2000 3.4444 3.5000 slowly rising



[/size]

Airing season 24 is only a couple of months away, but it seems like forever.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-23 Updated for 23!
Post by: theschnauzers on December 15, 2013, 05:48:48 PM
Season 23 final placements have been added to the opening post.

Note concerning season 24: Since it's announced as an "All Star" Race. the number of teams listed will rise as was done with seasons 11 and 18, although the total number of Racers should not change unless there's a twist in there somewhere.

Title: Season 24 Leaderboard Trends
Post by: theschnauzers on March 09, 2014, 11:03:16 PM
As has been my practice the past several seasons, I will be posting a leaderboard trends for the remaining teams after each leg starting with leg 3.
This attempts to help sort out how the teams are trending in the most recent three legs, and the third prior leg will normally be posted as well for comparison.
When a trend is uncertain that is because of wild swings in that team's placement in the most recent legs. That is especially true this season, as several teams have wildly swing high-low-high or low-high-low these first three legs.
The other thread with the season by season, leg by leg placement will have the traditional leaderboard leg-by-leg placement to date for this season's teams, and the final placement average for eliminated teams. I plan to post that after each leg as well.


Leaderboard Trends After 3 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team...................This Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (1)..............Trend


Dave - Connor 1 4 3 rising
Jet - Cord 2 6 1 unclear
Leo - Jamal 3 7 5 unclear
Margie - Luke 4 2 4 steady
Herb - Nate 5 5 7 slowly rising
Caroline - Jennifer 6 3 9 unclear
John - Jessica 7 8 8 slowly rising
Brendon - Rachel 8 1 2 falling


Joey - Meghan 9 9 10 eliminated
Mark - Mallory 10 6 eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya --- 11 eliminated

[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on March 16, 2014, 08:28:02 PM
Here's this week's leaderboard trends; and it's showing a natural set of team packs developing; top 2, middle 5 and one team trailing after 4 legs.


Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..............This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (1).......Trend

Jet - Cord 1 2 6 1 steady
Dave - Connor 2 1 4 3 steady
Leo - Jamal 3 3 7 5 slowly rising
Caroline - Jennifer 4 6 3 9 unclear
John - Jessica 5 7 8 8 rising
Herb - Nate 6 5 5 7 slowly falling
Margie - Luke 7 4 2 4 falling
Brendon - Rachel 8 8 1 2 falling


Joey - Meghan --- 9 9 10 eliminated
Mark - Mallory --- 10 6 eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya --- 11 eliminated
[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on March 25, 2014, 10:06:35 PM
Here are the leaderboard trends after 5 legs, and a lot of teams trends have shifted along with their placement when they reached the pit stop at the end of the fifth leg.

Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..............This Leg (5)...Last Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)..Prior Leg (2).......Trend

Jet - Cord 3 1 2 6 steady
Dave - Connor 1 2 1 4 steady
Leo - Jamal 4 3 3 7 steady
Caroline - Jennifer 2 4 6 3 rising
John - Jessica 5 5 7 8 slowly rising
Herb - Nate 6 6 5 5 steady
Brendon - Rachel 7 8 8 1 slowly rising

Margie - Luke 8 7 4 2 eliminated
Joey - Meghan --- 9 9 10 eliminated
Mark - Mallory --- 10 6 eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya --- 11 eliminated

[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on March 30, 2014, 11:11:29 PM
Leaderboard trends at the halfway point (leg 6):



Code: [Select]
Team...................This Leg (6)...Last Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)..Prior Leg (3)..Trend

Leo - Jamal 1 4 3 3 slowly rising
Jet - Cord 2 3 1 2 steady
John - Jessica 3 5 5 7 rising
Dave - Connor 4 1 2 1 unclear
Brendon - Rachel 5 7 8 8 rising
Herb - Nate 6 6 6 5 steady
Caroline - Jennifer 7 2 4 6 unclear

Margie - Luke --- eliminated
Joey - Meghan eliminated
Mark - Mallory eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya eliminated
[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on April 15, 2014, 01:36:42 AM
Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:


Code: [Select]
Team...................This Leg (7)...Last Leg (6)...Prior Leg (5)..Prior Leg (4).. Trend

Brendon - Rachel 1 5 7 8 rising
Caroline - Jennifer 2 7 2 4 unclear
Dave - Connor 3 4 1 2 steady
Jet - Cord 4 2 3 1 steady
Leo - Jamal 5 1 4 3 unclear
Herb - Nate 6 6 6 6 steady


John - Jessica --- eliminated
Margie - Luke eliminated
Joey - Meghan eliminated
Mark - Mallory eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya eliminated
[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on April 21, 2014, 11:13:45 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Code: [Select]
Team..................This Leg (8)...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Prior Leg (5)........Trend


Brendon - Rachel 1 1 5 7 rising
Caroline - Jennifer 5 2 7 2 unclear
Dave - Connor 4 3 4 1 steady
Jet - Cord 2 4 2 3 steady
Leo - Jamal 3 5 1 4 unclear

Herb - Nate --- eliminated
John - Jessica eliminated
Margie - Luke eliminated
Joey - Meghan eliminated
Mark - Mallory eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya eliminated

[/size]
The most steady team in a while goes home in 6th place, which is where they placed for the last 5 legs. And some teams keep bouncing up down and all around. Let's see what happens next week.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on April 30, 2014, 09:25:40 PM
Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team..................This Leg (9)...This Leg (8)...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)........Trend

Dave - Connor 1 4 3 4 slowly falling
Jet - Cord 2 2 4 2 steady
Leo - Jamal 3 3 5 1 unclear
Brendon - Rachel 4 1 1 5 unclear
Caroline - Jennifer 5 5 2 7 slowly falling

Herb - Nate --- eliminated
John - Jessica eliminated
Margie - Luke eliminated
Joey - Meghan eliminated
Mark - Mallory eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya eliminated
[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on May 11, 2014, 03:44:38 PM
Sorry for the delay. had a lot going on much of last week, and having ISP connectivity issues after a hail storm Thursday night didn't help.
There will be a leaderboard trends posted after leg 11 airs tonight, a rarity since many recent seasons have had legs 11 and 12 as a two hour finale.

Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Code: [Select]
Team..................This Leg (10)..Last Leg (9)...Prior Leg (8)..Prior Leg (7)..Trend

Dave - Connor 1 1 4 3 steady
Leo - Jamal 3 3 3 5 steady
Brendon - Rachel 2 4 1 1 unclear
Caroline - Jennifer 4 5 5 2 unclear

Jet - Cord --- eliminated
Herb - Nate eliminated
John - Jessica eliminated
Margie - Luke eliminated
Joey - Meghan eliminated
Mark - Mallory eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya eliminated
[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on May 11, 2014, 09:25:04 PM
Final leaderboard trends of the season after leg 11:

Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:
Code: [Select]
Team...............This Leg (11)..Last Leg (10)...Prior Leg (9)...Prior Leg (8)..Trend

Dave - Connor 1 1 1 4 steady
Brendon - Rachel 3 2 4 1 unclear
Caroline - Jennifer 2 4 5 5 rising

Leo - Jamal --- eliminated
Jet - Cord eliminated
Herb - Nate eliminated
John - Jessica eliminated
Margie - Luke eliminated
Joey - Meghan eliminated
Mark - Mallory eliminated
Natalie - Nadiya eliminated

[/size]
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!
Post by: theschnauzers on May 18, 2014, 09:17:02 PM
look for the updated ranking of all teams within a few days; as the list gets longer, it takes a little more time each season to keep it all in line. :)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on May 26, 2014, 08:07:54 PM
The list has now been updated to include the season 24 all star teams with their final leg placement averages.

Assuming season 25 is all new teams and new Racers, we will have a total of 510 (!) Racers at the end of that season next December.

Connor and Dave enter the list as winners, with the fourth best average placement ever, just behind Eric-Jeremy (season 9), Rachel-Dave (season 20) and Meghan-Cheyne (season 15).
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on December 19, 2014, 08:45:19 PM
I'm sorry for not during the leg to leg leaderboard trends this season; things got a little crazy in RL, and by the time I could have we were close to the end of TAR 25.

I will be updating the Opening Post with TAR 25 either over the weekend or during Christmas week. That takes a little work to make sure everything is coded correctly and the paragraph breaks after every ten teams is correct.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-25 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on December 24, 2014, 01:37:06 PM
Season 25 has been added to the opening post.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-25 (current)
Post by: Jobby on December 25, 2014, 12:12:50 AM
Amy and Maya beating Josh and Brent's average <333

Thanks for doing this theschnauzers!!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on July 21, 2015, 12:21:48 PM
Sorry for the delay. Had to complete major project that went to publisher on Sunday.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (current)
Post by: Marionete on July 23, 2015, 05:29:09 AM
Great job!
I just noted little mistake that you wrote 2 seasons for Ernie & Cindy and some weird BBCode at the bottom of the list. :) And Josh & Brent are not highlighted as winners.

Ughh, Dave and Connor being the 4th best team ever is just.... :gaah:
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on July 23, 2015, 10:36:44 PM
The total number of teams are right though. I'll look at the master list (off-line) again when I have a chance; but not this next week. I'm getting over that publication deadline in the midst of a hot summer and ongoing renovations in my apartment tower and I need to catch up on my rest.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on July 26, 2015, 07:03:33 PM
Everything should be fixed now.

There's an issue with using dark magenta that I can't figure out, so I've changed those to the slightly lighter but standard purple.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (current)
Post by: Marionete on July 27, 2015, 12:41:40 PM
Awesome work! :) (y)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (current)
Post by: theschnauzers on October 08, 2015, 02:54:54 PM
Note to this season's Racers. This is the "Other" thread I mentioned in the Rankings thread, The O.P. contains each season's leg by leg leader board that is updated each season.

During the season, I use this thread, when I do this, to calculate the trend line over the most recent three legs or so for each remaining team, and sometimes I'll project the range of the average final placement of the teams that remain at that point.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on October 11, 2015, 07:08:41 PM
And the first posted leg by leg leaderboard for season 27:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 4/3 1.3333

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 12/3 4.0000

Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 13/3 4.3333

Logan & Chris 5 4 5 14/3 4.6666

Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 14/3 4.6666

Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 15/3 5.0000

Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 18/3 6.0000

Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 24/3 8.0000

27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: cbacbacba1 on October 13, 2015, 01:16:51 AM
There are two mistakes in the calculation of average placing for two teams

19 - 05 Bill & Cathi
should be 50 / 10 = 5.00

20 - 04 Vanessa & Ralph
should be 54 / 11 = 4.9090

The wrost average placing for each ranking is listed as below :
1st place  : Season 21       Josh & Brent             55 / 12 = 4.5833
2nd place : Season 3        Teri & Ian                   59 / 13 = 4.5384
3rd place : Season 10       Lyn & Karlyn              65 / 13 = 5.00
4th place : Season 7    Meredith & Gretchen      59 / 11 = 5.3636
5th place : Season 23       Ally & Ashley              55 / 9   = 6.1111
6th place : Season 15       Maria & Tiffany           46 / 7   = 6.5714
7th place : Season 15       Mika & Cannan           46 / 6   = 7.6666
8th place : Season 21       Gary & Wil                  33 / 4   = 8.2500
9th place : Season 24       Joey & Meghan           28 / 3   = 9.3333   
10th place : Season 9 Lisa & Joni / Season 11 Kevin & Drew / Season 16 Jody & Shannon / Season 26 Libby & CJ        20 / 2 = 10.00
11th place : All 11th placer except Season 3 / Season 4 / Season 15 / Season 18's
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on October 13, 2015, 12:01:41 PM
I will double check my original notes and the season by season info.

My season by season information (in the other thread), as well as the Wikipedia article for season 19 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Amazing_Race_19 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Amazing_Race_19) show the same leg by leg results for Bill-Cathi, and that totals up to 55 ordinal placement points and ten legs. The stated average of 5.5000 is correct.

My season by season information (in the other thread), as well as the Wikipedia article for season 20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Amazing_Race_20 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Amazing_Race_20) show the same leg by leg results for Vanessa-Ralph, and that totals up to 54 ordinal placement points and 11 legs. The correct average is 4.9090. not 5.9090; most likely a typo in transferring the information.  The team's placement on the list has been corrected.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on October 17, 2015, 12:45:20 PM
Obviously, with a KOR leg, we won't have all the leg 4 placements until next week, along with leg 5. Stay tuned!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on October 25, 2015, 02:35:19 PM
Leaderboard after leg 5:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 9/5 1.8000

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 15/5 3.0000

Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 17/5 3.4000

Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 26/5 5.2000

Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 26/5 5.2000

Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 27/5 5.4000

Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 37/5 7.4000

27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on November 05, 2015, 11:46:48 PM
Leaderboard after Leg 6:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 16/6 2.6666
Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 39/6 6.5000
Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 29/6 4.8333
Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 13/6 2.1666
Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 32/6 5.3333
Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 32/6 5.3333
Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 24/6 4.0000

27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on November 12, 2015, 07:12:52 PM
Leaderboard after Leg 7:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 17/7 2.4285
Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 3 42/7 6.0000
Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 2 31/7 4.4285
Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 17/7 2.4285
Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 37/7 5.2857
Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 6 30/7 4.2857

27-07 Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 7 39/7 5.5714
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on November 12, 2015, 07:15:40 PM
And a hearty welcome to teams number 300 through 310, and Racers number 555 to 576, who are competing in TAR 28!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on November 18, 2015, 03:21:17 PM
Leaderboard after Leg 8:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 18/8 2.2500
Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 2 2 33/8 4.1250
Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 6 3 33/8 4.1250
Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 41/8 5.1250
Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 3 5 47/8 5.8750
Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 23/8 2.8750

27-07 Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 7 39/7 5.5714
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on November 26, 2015, 07:56:26 PM
Leaderboard after Leg 9:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 19/9 2.1111
Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 35/9 3.8888
Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 6 3 5 38/9 4.2222
Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 44/9 4.8888
Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 3 5 4 51/9 5.6666

27-06 Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 29/9 3.1111
27-07 Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 7 39/7 5.5714
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on November 30, 2015, 12:58:29 AM
Leaderboard after Leg 10:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 20/10 2.1000
Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 37/10 3.7000
Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 48/10 4.8000
Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 3 5 4 3 54/10 5.4000

27-05 Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 6 3 5 5 43/10 4.3000
27-06 Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 29/9 3.1111
27-07 Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 7 39/7 5.5714
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on December 08, 2015, 11:36:20 AM
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard after Leg 11:

[code}
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 23/11 2.0909
Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 39/11 3.5454
Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 1 49/11 4.4545

27-04 Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 3 5 4 3 4 58/11 5.2727
27-05 Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 6 3 5 5 43/10 4.3000
27-06 Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 29/9 3.1111
27-07 Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 7 39/7 5.5714
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on December 13, 2015, 04:41:30 PM
Final leaderboard for season 28:

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

27-01 Kelsey & Joey 8 7 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 40/12 3.3333
27-02 Justin & Diana 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 25/12 2.0833
27-03 Logan & Chris 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 1 3 52/12 4.3333

27-04 Tiffany & Krista 10 6 8 8 5 2 3 5 4 3 4 58/11 5.2727
27-05 Denise & James Earl 4 3 6 3 1 7 6 3 5 5 43/10 4.3000
27-06 Tanner & Josh 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 29/9 3.1111
27-07 Cindy & Rick 3 5 7 5 7 5 7 39/7 5.5714
27-08 Jazmine & Danielle 2 8 4 7 8 29/5 5.8000
27-09 Ernest & Jin 7 9 9 25/3 8.3333
27-10 Alex & Adam 6 10 15/2 8.0000
27-11 Kelly & Shevonne 11 11/1 11.0000

The final version will be posted in the O.P. of the other thread. The updated list of the rankings of all teams will come shortly. Takes a little time with 500 plus racers and over 300 teams!

We'll be back in two months for TAR 28!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: Zack. on December 14, 2015, 01:49:04 PM
Slay @ Kisha & Jen still being tied as the best "only the last leg counts" winners  :luvya:

( :funny: at Joe & Bill being  the best team to only win one leg)
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-26 (updating 27)
Post by: theschnauzers on December 16, 2015, 03:47:45 PM
Main list in O.P. updated with TAR 27; One calculation corrected.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-27 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on February 16, 2016, 04:15:41 PM
Season 28, leg 1 Leaderboard standings

Code: [Select]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Fraction Placement Average

Dana-Matt 1 1/1 1.000
Tyler-Korey 2 2/1 2.000
Zach-Rachel 3 3/1 3.000
Cameron-Darius 4 4/1 4.000
Kurt-Brodie 5 5/1 5.000
Burnie-Ashley 6 6/1 6.000
Jessica-Brittany 7 7/1 7.000
Marty-Hagan 8 8/1 8.000
Sheri-Cole 9 9/1 9.000
Erin-Joslyn 10 10/1 10.000
Scott-Blair 11 11/1 11.000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on February 21, 2016, 03:21:19 PM
leaderboard as of leg 2:

Code: [Select]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Fraction Placement Average

Tyler-Korey 2 1 3/2 1.5000
Kurt-Brodie 5 2 7/2 3.5000
Burnie-Ashley 6 3 9/2 4.5000
Dana-Matt 1 4 5/2 2.5000
Erin-Joslyn 10 5 15/2 7.5000
Zach-Rachel 3 6 9/2 4.5000
Jessica-Brittany 7 7 14/2 7.0000
Sheri-Cole 9 8 17/2 8.5000
Scott-Blair 11 9 20/2 10.0000
Cameron-Darius 4 10 14/2 7.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 8 11 19/2 9.5000

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: BritishTARFan on February 26, 2016, 03:51:02 PM
I don't know if this has been mentioned but do Marc & Rovilsen of Tar Asia 2 have the lowest average at 1.46153846 on all 13 legs they only came in 1st and 2nd except ironically the last leg which they placed 3rd!
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on February 28, 2016, 06:32:13 PM
I don't deal with the international editions, as I don't get to see any of them. If you want to supply me with all of the seasons of all those editions, so I can confirm the application of common placement averaging objectively, then I'll consider a separate computation for all of those. Thus these threads apply to the mothership, as everyone has gotten broadcast access at one time or another.

I should have leg 3 leaderboard and leaderboard trends up within a day or two.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 10, 2016, 11:21:13 AM
This is the first of the leaderboard trends for season 28. From week to week, most of the teams have had a poor leg while otherwise good, or the obverse (a good leg but otherwise not good, and some have been stready. It really doesn't reflect the near 8-way tie at the end of leg 4, but these are averages, first of all, and second of all, and third of all.

For the first one, I am listing the placement averages as of the end of each of the first four legs. That is how we document the actual generalization of each team's trend line. I;ve decided that although it is harder for me to format, I'm am going to have the oldest leg to the left, and the newest leg at the right for each team's set of placement average.

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent leg)
Leg 1 Leg 2 Leg 3 Leg 4 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Tyler-Korey 2.0000 1.5000 1.6666 1.7500 steady
Kurt-Brodie 5.0000 3.5000 2.6666 2.0000 rising
Dana-Matt 1.0000 2.5000 3.0000 3.0000 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 6.0000 4.5000 4.0000 4.0000 steady
Zach-Rachel 3.0000 4.5000 6.0000 5.7500 falling slowly
Erin-Joslyn 10.0000 7.5000 7.3333 7.0000 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 9.0000 8.5000 7.6666 7.5000 rising slowly
Scott-Blair 11.0000 10.0000 9.3333 9.0000 rising slowly
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000 7.0000 6.3333 7.0000 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 4.0000 7.0000 8.0000 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 8.0000 9.5000 9.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: Marionete on March 11, 2016, 07:20:02 AM
How are the averages calculated?
Each placement of when the team is shown "Currently in X place"?

And if Dana & Matt are slowly falling, why aren't Burnie & Ashley slowly rising? Their (dis)improvements are identical.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 11, 2016, 02:43:16 PM
Please read the opening post of the original overall ranking the teams thread. As to the "slowly" part it is partially subjective because this first time, I'm looking at four legs, not three, and I'm also taking into account the fact that the eight remaining teams were essentially in a first place tie. And I tried to give less weight to the first leg as opposed to the other three legs.After leg 5, I will only be using three legs and the characterization will be clearer. You do need to visualize how the averages look on a graph to get what the trend lines are.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: Marionete on March 11, 2016, 05:55:20 PM
Okay, I will. :tup: Which thread is the original one though? :lol:

I just meant that from leg 1 to leg 4 Dana & Matt had placement changes of +1.5/+0.5/+0, while Burnie & Ashley had -1.5/-0.5/-0, so the trends are simply opposite, but shouldn't be different in a way that only one is slowly changing. ???
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 13, 2016, 06:23:56 PM
The original thread is the other thread.  :groan:

Here's an example of ambiguity and the verbal description of a team's trend. Suppose the team's average for the three most recent legs are 4.0, 4.5, 4.0. Not clear by itself was the trend is. Suppose you then knew that prior to those three legs, the team has a 4.5. Verbally, I'd say the team was steady because there is minimum movement. Suppose the average on that prior leg the team was a 5.0, or conversely a 4.0. You have a trendline that has slowed from either direction; rising or slowing. Or yo have a team that has been widely gyrating, which could be indeterminate. The point is that it doesn't take much to go from "slowly" to steady or the other way around, or from "rising" or "falling" to "slowly";

A team that stays one place above the bottom is slowly going to rise slowly by the nature of the process, a team that stays at the same placement or varies no mire than by one, is doing to be steady with minor shifts getting smaller as a decimal and the Race proceeds. Because that is the nature of the computation,, I take these patterns into account to a small degree in attaching a verbal label.  This also explains why it is inexact.

I should have it up by tomorrow aometime.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: toanglobal on March 15, 2016, 05:05:54 AM
I don't know if this has been mentioned but do Marc & Rovilsen of Tar Asia 2 have the lowest average at 1.46153846 on all 13 legs they only came in 1st and 2nd except ironically the last leg which they placed 3rd!
If TAR Asia 2 were counted as 13 legs, we would have Marc & Rovilson won 8 legs, Adrian & Collin won 3 legs and Ann & Diane, Pamela & Vanessa won a leg each, and this season is also marked with no Co-ed teams finished 1st and 2nd in any leg
http://realityfanwiki.com/index.php?title=The_Amazing_Race_Asia_2
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 26, 2016, 07:22:56 PM
I don't know if this has been mentioned but do Marc & Rovilsen of Tar Asia 2 have the lowest average at 1.46153846 on all 13 legs they only came in 1st and 2nd except ironically the last leg which they placed 3rd!
If TAR Asia 2 were counted as 13 legs, we would have Marc & Rovilson won 8 legs, Adrian & Collin won 3 legs and Ann & Diane, Pamela & Vanessa won a leg each, and this season is also marked with no Co-ed teams finished 1st and 2nd in any leg
http://realityfanwiki.com/index.php?title=The_Amazing_Race_Asia_2


Not sure this has much to do with this thread. Perhaps someone familiar with the placements of all of the non-US editions would like to take on a companion set of threads? I have seen little of any of the international editions, so I'm not qualified to comment.

Meanwhile in the next post, we return to our topic.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 26, 2016, 07:25:18 PM
Here's the second analysis of leaderboard trends following leg 5. I held this for this weekend, as the show returns on Friday.

Code: [Select]

Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 3 Leg 4 Leg 5 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Tyler-Korey 1.6666 1.7500 1.6000 steady
Kurt-Brodie 2.6666 2.0000 2.0000 steady
Dana-Matt 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 steady
Burnie-Ashley 4.0000 4.0000 4.4000 falling slowly
Zach-Rachel 6.0000 5.7500 5.6000 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.6666 7.5000 7.4000 rising slowly
Scott-Blair 9.3333 9.0000 8.0000 rising
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: Marionete on March 27, 2016, 03:50:08 PM
The original thread is the other thread.  :groan:
This one? >> http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,26663.0.html
But it was started almost 2 years later, so this doesn't make much sense to me :lol:

Concerning the trends for Dana/Matt and Burnie/Ashley that I mentioned before, I still don't understand why identical graphs produce different tags, but whatever, there's not much significance to it if you don't feel like bothering.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on March 27, 2016, 05:02:14 PM
I answered your question in the above post; the season by season thread was started because of some confusion over how the early season leg by leg results especially as, at the time, double leg mid points were not available in most places (Wiki now does show them), and I posted my personal contemporaneous notes of that information.

The point was that the "other thread" includes a lengthy and detailed explanation of how team placement averages are computed. As to the leaderboard trends, as I noted before, there is a subjective element to it and it isn't possible to make it perfectly quantitative. You may interpret the same data any way you wish. That doesn't mean I am bound by your interpretation, any more than the other direction.
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: ianthebalance on March 27, 2016, 10:25:45 PM
Kurt and Brodie should have a 2.2500 on leg 4 and 2.2000 on leg 5
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 08, 2016, 02:04:36 AM
Noted.

Leaderboard trends after leg 6:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 4 Leg 5 Leg 6 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.0000 2.2000 2.0000 steady
Tyler-Korey 1.7500 1.6000 2.3333 falling slowly
Dana-Matt 3.0000 3.0000 3.1666 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 4.0000 4.4000 4.0000 rising slowly
Zach-Rachel 5.7500 5.6000 5.1666 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.5000 7.4000 7.3333 rising slowly
Scott-Blair 9.0000 8.0000 7.5000 rising slowly
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 10, 2016, 10:40:26 PM
Leaderboard trends after leg 7:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 5 Leg 6 Leg 7 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.2000 2.0000 2.1428 steady
Tyler-Korey 1.6000 2.3333 2.8571 falling slowly
Dana-Matt 3.0000 3.1666 3.2857 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 4.4000 4.0000 3.7142 rising slowly
Zach-Rachel 5.6000 5.1666 4.5714 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.4000 7.3333 7.0000 rising slowly

28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 20, 2016, 02:19:18 PM
Leaderboard trends after leg 8:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 6 Leg 7 Leg 8 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.0000 2.1428 2.0000 steady
Tyler-Korey 2.3333 2.8571 2.8750 falling slowly
Dana-Matt 3.1666 3.2857 3.5000 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 4.0000 3.7142 3.5000 rising slowly
Zach-Rachel 5.1666 4.5714 4.5000 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.3333 7.0000 6.8750 rising slowly

28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on April 24, 2016, 02:47:55 AM
Leaderboard trends after leg 9:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 7 Leg 8 Leg 9 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.1428 2.0000 2.3333 steady
Tyler-Korey 2.8571 2.8750 2.6666 steady
Burnie-Ashley 3.7142 3.5000 3.3333 rising slowly
Dana-Matt 3.2857 3.5000 3.5555 falling slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.0000 6.8750 6.4444 rising slowly

28-06 Zach-Rachel 4.6666
28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000

I've used the trend word of "steady" to describe three teams that are staying within a narrow range; and the other two teams are rising, but very slowly.

As to a projection of the finishing placement average for the final three teams, I have computed a range from the best possible finishing average to the lowest. It's apparent that leg 10 will end in an elimination, and the final elimination would be either at the end of leg 11 or at a point early in leg 12. For all practical purposes, I treat those the same way in computing a range of possible finishing averages, the difference, as shown below, is that a team could finish fourth in leg 11, and not be eliminated at the elimination point in leg 12; thus both are shown below.
At this point the ranges are as follows:

Code: [Select]
Best Worse Worse
Current [leg 9] Possible Finish Possible Finish Possible Finish
(Final 3) (Final 3)(4th on leg 11)(Final 3)(4th on leg 12)
[1st- 1st -1st] [4th -3rd - 3rd ] [4th - 4th - 3rd ]
Kurt-Brodie 21/9 2.3333 24/12 2.0000 31/12 2.5833 32/12 2.6666
Tyler-Korey 24/9 2.6666 27/12 2.2500 34/12 2.8333 35/12 2.9166
Burnie-Ashley 30/9 3.3333 33/12 2.7500 40/12 3.3333 41/12 3.4166
Dana-Matt 32/9 3.5555 35/12 2.9166 42/12 3.5000 43/12 3.5833
Sheri-Cole 58/9 6.4444 61/12 5.0833 68/12 5.6666 69/12 5.7500
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on May 01, 2016, 10:37:46 PM
fixed error in previous post

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 8 Leg 9 Leg 10 Trend Final Placement
Line Average

Tyler-Korey 2.8750 2.6666 2.5000 rising slowly
Burnie-Ashley 3.5000 3.3333 3.2000 rising slowly
Dana-Matt 3.5000 3.5555 3.5000 steady
Sheri-Cole 6.8750 6.4444 6.2000 rising slowly

28-05 Kurt-Brodie 2.6000
28-06 Zach-Rachel 4.6666
28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on May 08, 2016, 03:08:04 PM
post leg 11 trend analysis:

For the record, there's no overlap of the ranges of final placement averages for the final three teams. Ought to be interesting to see how luck plays a part in the final leg this season:


Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 9 Leg 10 Leg 11 Trend Final Placement
Line Average

Tyler-Korey 2.6666 2.5000 2.3636 rising slowly
Dana-Matt 3.5555 3.5000 3.3636 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 6.4444 6.2000 5.9090 rising slowly

28-04 Burnie-Ashley 3.2727
28-05 Kurt-Brodie 2.6000
28-06 Zach-Rachel 4.6666
28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
Post by: theschnauzers on May 17, 2016, 11:24:37 PM
Final placement averages for season 28:

Code: [Select]
Final Placement Average

28-01 Dana-Matt 38/12 3.1666
28-02 Sheri-Cole 67/12 5.5833
28-03 Tyler-Korey 29/12 2.4166
28-04 Burnie-Ashley 36/11 3.2727
25-05 Kurt-Brodie 26/10 2.6000
28-06 Zach-Rachel 42/9 4.6666
26-07 Scott-Blair 52/7 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 36/5 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 28/4 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 24/3 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 19/2 9.5000
These will be used in the O.P. of the other thread with the master list of team placements from TAR 1 to 28; that takes a little time because the every ten team spacing has to be manually reset every season to incorporate new teams, and because of the conventions I use for team placements with the same averages.