Hi guys, this is my first posting here as I've been lurking for awhile but reading up on all the speculation you guys do on each leg has gotten me to think so I decided to bit the bullet and post. I'm usually over at Sucks but the amount of effort that you guys put in here on speculation using vidcaps and research is amazing! I've enjoyed reading it all.
I also wasn't sure if to put this here or post it in the Ep 7/Ep 8 thread discussion, mainly b/c I discuss some of the spoilers Izad has posted about the Malaysia leg in order to work backward to figure out how the Poland leg ended. I didn't want to post this there if it leaked any spoilers.
At any rate, here are my thoughts.......
My speculation on the Poland leg……
According to Izad's pictures, C/M were seen at the Batu Cave's roughly by 8:00am. In looking at the flights from Warsaw to Kuala Lumpur, the flights that fit best for C/M to arrive at the Batu Caves at the noted time are as follows:
LOT Polish Airlines Flt 223
Warsaw to Vienna 7:40am - 9:05am
Austrian Airlines Flt 1
Vienna to Kuala Lumpur 10:50am - 4:45am
Add in time to de-board the airplane, make their way through the airport and possibly take public transport or drive to the Batu Caves, that puts them at the Batu Caves by roughly 8:00 am.
If this airline information is correct and we work our way backwards to the Poland Leg, in order for C/M to make a 7:40am flight after a 12 hour mandatory rest period, I would guess that they reached the Poland pit stop somewhere between 3pm – 6pm. Definitely no later that 6pm b/c any later than that, 12 hours later would be 6am and factoring in travel to the airport and booking flights, it would make it difficult to make a 7:40am flight.
Now, based upon the vidcaps of C/M at the pit stop with Phil, it is dark outside. Based upon this website:http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EPWA/2006/12/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Sunset in Warsaw, during the time they were traveling (December), the sun set's early. It apparently set starting around 3:24pm. Actual Time:
Rise: 7:31 AM CET, Set: 3:24 PM CET
Therefore, C/M could arrive at the pit stop at 4:00pm and it would be dark outside just like in the picture. That fits with them possibly starting the next leg in my timeline above (for example we will say 4am) and making the 7:40am flight to Vienna.
Also, in looking at the other pictures of the Chas and the BQ's running and the pics of Phil at the pit stop when the sun is out. In all the pictures, the sunlight does appear to look like the sun is setting. In the pics of the Cha's, sun is shown shining on the grass. In the pic of Phil, there is no sun on the grass. This all fits in with the sun setting at 3:24pm CET. The cha's and BQ's could be arriving at the pit stop between 2:30pm – 3:24pm.
Also, if you look at the pics of the Cha's the tree with the "V" can be seen. In the pic of Phil, if I am correct you can see the same "V" shape tree. Also in the Phil pic there is a bench and people at that tree and it looks a little darker. In the pic of the Cha's running, there are no people at the tree which leads me to believe the shot of Phill looking toward the white building, is of a later team arriving, perhaps the BQs.
Therefore, I'm am guessing, based upon the light in the pics of the Cha's,the Cha's may be arriving at the pit stop first and the BQ's second. C/M would come in 3rd after the sun set.
Also, based upon the Malaysian leg, we do know that the 5th team, most likely U/J, were stuck in Poland. Therefore, we can surmise one of the following happening:
All teams are bunched up at the Warsaw airport and C/M somehow find a better flight than the others even though they bunch up at the airport. U/J just have bad luck and can't get on any flights. The only thing that doesn't make sense to me is why would any teams ahead of C/M allow them to get on a better flight after what happened on the previous leg? Did C/M use their powers of persuasion to get on the first flight? Was it a risky move with standby tickets in Vienna and the other teams weren't willing to take the risk? If the Chas and BQs were ahead of C/M you would think they would be aware of the early flight connecting through Vienna. And with U/J getting stuck Poland like Izad overheard, does that mean they were next to last in the Poland Leg which caused them to not make the same flight as the everyone else?
C/M are Team 1 at the end of the Poland leg. Though I can't seem to support this happening unless they finished the Poland leg the night before the Cha's and the BQ's and they couldn't find a flight out of Warsaw until the same day the other teams would be leaving. Though, now that I think of it, that could explain how the others are on a later flight and couldn't get on the C/M flight. hmmmm.....Also this scenario could still support the vidcaps…..Let's say C/M finish during the late afternoon/evening a day earlier than everyone (we'll call this day 1 and say they finished at 5pm for explanation sake). Based upon sunset it would be dark. Twelve hours later at 5am they start the next leg and need to find a flight to Malaysia but they are unable to book a flight out of Warsaw for another day therefore allowing the rest of the teams time to catch up. Meanwhile, the other teams have arrived in Warsaw and specifically the Cha's and BQs, finish close to sunset on that day (around 3pm on what we will call day 2). Therefore, while C/M have already booked their Malaysia flight, the others start up the leg at 3am the next morning, get to the Warsaw airport but are unable to book the flight that C/M already booked on but get booked on the next flight. Again that still leaves U/J being the unlucky couple not making a flight out with everyone else.
So far, I am still leaning toward Scenario 1 above though I'm hoping for Scenario 2.