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Panama Confessional Analysis, Episode 3
Well, this episode had a more normal amount of confessionals. Perhaps last episode's dearth of confessionals was just a one time thing. Let's see what we have...
Sally - 2D, 1T/1D, 2T/4D = 3T/7D
Terry - 1T, 2T, 3T/1D = 6T/1D
Austin - 2T, 1D, 1T/3D = 3T/4D
Nick - 1D, 1D, 2T/1D = 2T/3D
Dan - 1T, 1D, 1T = 2T/1D
Ruth Marie - 1T, 0T, 1T = 2T
Misty - 2T/1D, 0T, 1T/2D = 3T/3D
Shane - 1T/1D, 3T/3D, 2D = 4T/6D
Cirie - 2T/3D, 2D, 1D = 2T/6D
Courtney - 3T, 3D, 1T/1D = 4T/4D
Danielle - 2T/1D, 1D, 0T = 2T/2D
Bruce - 0T, 2T, 3T/1D = 5T/1D
Aras - 1T, 0T, 1T/1D = 2T/1D
Bobby - 1T, 0T, 2T = 3T
Melinda - 1T/1D, 2D = 1T/3D
Tina - 3T/1D
At La Mina, Sally appears to be in the most danger with seven Ds. Austin and Nick aren't looking too good either. In fact, Austin had a big negative confessional jump, with three Ds. Ruth Marie is getting the older-woman-who-makes-it-really-far edit, with only a few confessionals, and, significantly, no Ds. Based on confessional analysis, Terry has Final Four written all over him. It's hard to get a handle on Dan. I thought he was doomed last episode and that didn't happen. He does have the same confessional breakdown that Misty had after episode two, so who knows, maybe he's up next.
At Casaya, Shane and Cirie are in danger. I think if Casaya goes to TC, the story will be whether the alliance holds together and boots Cirie or breaks apart and boots Shane. I am thinking it's going to be Shane going home if they hit TC next week. Bobby has yet to get a T, the only Casaya without one. He appears to be safe. Bruce and Aras also appear safe. Danielle and Courtney aren't looking great, but they are most likely okay for another episode.
I am trying to figure out who makes the merge and who goes soon, but even with three episodes down, it's hard to say. Let's go with...
Terry (easy choice based on CA)
Ruth Marie (she's getting a Mamakim vibe)
Austin (either he or Nick makes it, but not both)
Dan (don't feel good about this one)
Bruce (he's got the Ts!)
Bobby (no Ds yet...)
Cirie (this is based more on gut than CA)
Aras (he strikes me as someone who has a bigger story coming later on)
Danielle (process of elimination at this point)
Courtney (process of elimination at this point)
Which means Shane, Nick, and Sally are the next three boots in some order. I'll guess Sally, Nick and finally Shane just misses the merge.
Who's in danger based on confessional analysis: