: Running in the woods - ? wins; younger (men? women?) lose
In the CBS site's "Meet the Cast" video clip (vidcaps here
; video here
- Real media), there is a scene in which Jeff Probst yells "Go!" and a representative of each tribe races off into the woods. Visible are Ruth Marie (older women), Terry (older men), and Danielle (younger women). Presumably, since he's shown stretching, Austin is there too.
On the sidelines, we can see Bobby and Aras on the green mat, and all people shown are dressed exactly as in the official cast photo (see caps at right). Because of this, it looks to us like the castaways show up, get their buffs, and immediately compete in the Reward Challenge. The various single-tribe huddles shown in this area (apart from the photo ops) may be pre-challenge discussions of who runs which leg.
Who wins? Well, as you'll see below, we think one of the younger tribes loses. Overall, we like the older men's chances, but we'll keep our eyes
Exile: Austin? Misty?
CBS hasn't explicitly defined how the whole "Exile Island" thing works, but since the RC appears to take place immediately after arrival (as in Guatemala), and the person exiled is banished from the RC-losing tribe, we'd guess they wouldn't be present to help set up camp. Assuming then that the bulk of the camp shots are from before the IC, we can rule out a few people as potential Ep1 Exilees (yeah, that's a lot of assumptions, but we have to start somewhere):
Older women: All are accounted for in camp, in clothes not worn in the RC. Older women don't lose the RC.
Older men: Bruce, Shane and Terry are shown on a rocky beach. Bruce and Dan are each shown working on a raised shelter. Seems like everyone is at camp at some point.
Younger women: Sally, Danielle and Courtney are all shown gathering shelter material together. Courtney and Danielle are also shown together. No sign of Misty, though. Misty = possible exile.
Younger men: Nick and Bobby are each shown standing (or sitting) by the same tree. Aras is shown chopping wood, presumably in camp. No sign of Austin. Austin = possible exile.
From this, Austin and Misty look like the strongest candidates for exile. Given a choice between young men and young women losing a challenge, that really depends on what the challenge involves. We can see running, so in that, we'd give the men a slight edge. As biancaxxx points out, that's Austin's blue shirt hanging behind Nick, so Austin may also be in camp. Leaning Misty
Water/raft race - Some tribe loses?
This one appears to be a water-based race, starting on the beach, swimming out to a raft, rowing it back, and securing it (or doing something with ropes) on the beach. We're also shown what looks like pre-challenge Q&A with Probst (Austin and Cirie speaking). Exciting stuff.
Who wins? With four tribes, it doesn't really matter who wins, or places second or third, so much as who comes in last. Because the first three finishers won't be going to tribal council. Although we see Aras directing something on the beach, so the young men may finish first. As for last, we see the older men struggling on their raft, with nobody apparently behind them, with Bruce sitting still as a statue. We also see a bedraggled, grimacing Dan coming out of the water, with his buff in the same position as during the IC. Doesn't look good for the orange tribe. Older men lose?
At least, that's what the limited vidcaps available might predict. Wickchix has now heard that "a girl" is the first person booted, so it sounds like one of the female tribes loses, instead.
Misty? Sally? Tina? Ruth Marie?
For the boot, we'd guess the first one will be someone heard from on the Early Show cast reveal (vidcaps and transcripts here). Of those, ChillOne's spoilers eliminate Cirie, Courtney and Bruce from boot contention. That leaves Dan, Tina and Bobby. We'll throw in Misty, for balance, especially if she's a potential exilee.
If the apparent last-place performance by the older men in the IC is really the case, the boot is obvious: Dan the astronaut. But it's unclear if we can't see the blue and green tribes on their rafts because they've already made it ashore, or if they're just not in the narrow frame of the last picture above.
So that's certainly not set in stone. Which, as noted above, is a good thing, because Wickchix alleges that the first boot is "a girl." And thus, while still subject to source-based interpretation, highly unlikely to also be a tall, balding, older man.
If Misty is indeed the first exile, and the first boot comes from her tribe, she would seem to be the logical pick for first boot. Unless they all feel guilty, or something, and/or Sally does something (or nothing) to irritate the others in Misty's absence. Either could plausibly go first.
On the older women's tribe, perhaps more of a stretch for "girl," Tina, Melinda or Ruth Marie could each theoretically be vulnerable. Tina and Ruth Marie are each shown sitting in front of the shelter while others relax inside it. But both seem to have something to offer in physical challenges. Melinda perhaps less so, but seems to have the charm to get along for a while. Still, we'd favor the younger women making the first TC trip.