Just waiting on TDT still a ? by next to the winner of either Danni or Steph
Corvis has a great analysis
Finale Boot Prediction ~
The only question that's at all uncertain is who wins. We know that Rafe wins the Final Four immunity because CBS gave us a vidcap of him sitting at TC with the immunity necklace around his neck. They just don't care anymore, do they?
(credit to SurvivorFever)
There's no question that Lydia goes home as Stephenie and Danni both have been edited to make it further than Final Four, whereas Lydia going out at Final Four fits her story perfectly.
I have long been a Rafe supporter and really thought he'd make it to the Final Two, but like so many great players before him (Kathy, Rob Cesternino, and Lex to name three), he's going to get booted in the third place spot. TDT has a spoiler that Danni wins the final immunity challenge and takes Stephenie. History and sources converge to point to Rafe's ouster in this spot. I hope he gets to come back and play the game again as I really thought he was one of the best players in Survivor history. And, of course, that makes sense since he is one of us.
So it comes down to this: Danni, the jock beauty queen from Kansas vs. the Jersey girl and second-chancer Stephenie.
Who will the Jury pick to win the million dollars?
Stephenie's going into this with a huge disadvantage: this is her second chance at the game. Still, she can make the argument that getting to the end is a great accomplishment for her because she had such a target on her back. She did betray a number of her own alliance: Jamie, Judd, and Cindy. If they decide revenge tastes sweet, Stephenie has no chance.
Danni, on the other hand, has only one certain vote: Gary. She was the last surviving member of a Pagonged alliance. She got to the end because the majority alliance couldn't hold together. Still, she's very likable and she did overcome amazing odds to get where she is. And she didn't betray anyone except Rafe when she chose Stephenie instead of him. Still, Rafe would have been impossible to beat in the Final, so Danni had no choice but to betray him.
So who will the jury pick? Let's look at them one at a time.
Rafe is simple: he picks Stephenie. They've been aligned since the very beginning. And Danni betrayed him at the end. This vote is a sure thing.
Gary is equally simple: he picks Danni. They have a strong alliance. He called her his little sister. Though we didn't see much of it on the show, they bonded over their faith.
Lydia is pretty much a sure vote for Stephenie. She has been aligned with Stephenie since the beginning, is a little bit starstruck by her, and never really bonded too much with Danni. Of course, Lydia targeted Stephenie during that one reward challenge and Stephenie was pissed off about it, but Lydia isn't the type to hold a grudge. And besides, Lydia did it because she felt Steph had gotten enough rewards. No animosity there - just a sense of fairness.
Judd is someone who want to make his time on the jury about revenge. Sure, he doesn't give a damn about Danni, but he loathes Stephenie for betraying him. He votes Danni.
Cindy is a little tougher call. She and Danni started on the same tribe, however they were never in an alliance together. When Stephenie and company came to Nakum, Cindy jumped on board with only a little less enthusiasm than Judd. Yes, Stephenie betrayed her. But Cindy will choose the person she thinks played the game the best. And that person was Stephenie.
You might think Bobby Jon is tough to figure out as well because he and Stephenie have history together as former Survivors. I don't think that'll be nearly enough for him to give Stephenie his vote. He bonded with Danni and has been rooting for the underdog since he was voted out. He's a Danni vote.
Which means crazy paranoid Jamie is the deciding vote. He could go for revenge against Stephenie. He did call her "Hitler" in a TV interview. However, he was never close to Danni. Does he want to reward someone from the other alliance? Probably not. And the thing about the Hitler comment... it's such an overreaction that it strikes me as someone who is trying to distance himself from the vote he made. I think Jamie voted Stephenie and regretted it after watching the show.
So my prediction is.....
Stephenie LaGrossa wins Survivor: Guatemala!
But you see that guy in the background? He is why Stephenie won.
I realize that most of the other sites are going to be choosing Danni to win. No sense in following the pack, right? It's been a fun year and I've really enjoyed analyzing this season as well as Palau. Thanks to everyone who has stopped by and thanks especially to those who made comments. Hit tips and much kudos to the great Spoilers at SurvivorBlows, MESS and Sucks.
Happy Holidays to all!
Final Four IC winner: Rafe
Final Four Boot: Lydia
Final Three IC winner: Danni
Final Three Boot: Rafe
Runner Up: Danni
Winner: Stephenie in a 4-3 vote