Corvis picks Gary !
That was my first hinky and I'm now thinking of switching my pick .. what the heck ? My scores suck anyway ^/^
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
Who goes home in Episode 4?
Well, that's a good question. Honestly, I am not sure. Sure, there's a strong feeling on the boards that Blake goes next, but if you remember, I had a weight loss spoiler for him. I haven't heard much from that person for a while, which could mean
1) He or she got in trouble for passing along (presumedly) accurate information
2) I've been Seraphaem-ed (that means a hoaxer sent me false information for the fun of it)
Confessional analysis likes Gary for the boot. And, well, so do I. I know it seems kind of obvious since they're playing up the "Hey, aren't you a QB?" angle in the previews. They're milking it. Is it misdirection? Or is just that there's only one more week to pull in the football fans before Gary goes home?
Also, we have this CBS website hint:
A very close Immunity Challenge leads into a tense Tribal Council that could end with a tie or a major betrayal.
Even after the tribes are switched around (see other website hint), the assumption is that we'll have the same number on each tribe. That's what usually happens. To have the possibility for a tie (barring something strange like a 3-3-1 vote), the tribe that ends up with 8 people has to go to Tribal Council. Right now, we know the following:
Quartzeye made a great observation at MESS which shows BJ's hat in a shot with Jamie. That would put them together on Nakum. And if Margaret is the one confronting Gary about his football past, it probably means Danni isn't around, so she's on nuNakum.
One other thing we can pretty much assume is that four original Yaxha end up on the same tribe. If the split was five on tribe and three on the other, the chance of a tie seems really, really unlikely. So either Brian or Lydia both end up on nuYaxha (and that's the tribe that goes to TC) or one is on nuNakum (and they go to TC) and one is on nuYaxha. Let's fill in some gaps with total speculation. Why not, right? I am going to go with the assumption that nuYaxha gets the even number and goes to Tribal Council because Gary appears to be in danger of getting booted due to his lie and the only way we'd see that is if nuYaxha was heading to Tribal Council. So that puts Lydia and Brian on nuYaxha. It's far harder to figure out which two Nakum goes to nuYaxha: Judd, Brandon, Cindy, or Brooke. I'm going to go with Judd (because the yellow buff he's wearing in the preview looks new and he's happy which probably means he's not in a possible tie situation) and Brooke (just... because) staying at Nakum which sends Cindy and Brandon to nuYaxha.
Let's look at the tribal dynamics of nuYaxha. Blake, Margaret, and Cindy were not in the majority alliance (were they in a minority alliance?) at Nakum. Brandon (who just separated from his entire alliance) understands the importance of alliances and will likely pull his Nakum tribemates together. Brian and Lydia are tight. Gary and Amy are aligned.
Since we'll probably see a tie, we can assume that the four Nakum stick together and the four Yaxha stick together. The Yaxha alliance will likely target Margaret, the weakest member of the Nakum who got switched. Nakum will probably target Gary, using his lies as a reason for his tribemates to turn on him. So really, the question is does Brian, Lydia or Amy turn on Gary? All it takes is one of them. Lydia probably wouldn't do it. She has a strong pact with Gary. Amy sees Gary as the only member of her alliance still on the tribe and probably doesn't want to lose him. Which leaves Brian, who considers himself a master player, the puppeteer of his tribe. I think the temptation to backstab Gary will be too strong to resist. He wants to play the game and is arrogant enough to believe that he can pull it off. So I think Brian turns on Gary.
I am far from certain, but I definitely think Gary goes home pre-merge. Of course, I also think Blake is pre-merge, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him go. If he does, it'll probably be one of the original Nakum turning on him and rationalizing that he's been weak since the beginning and can't hack it. But I'm going with Gary.
Oh yeah, and nuNakum wins the IC. There is no RC - just a tribal switch.