made his prediction
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Episode 3 Boot Prediction
A bunch of information floated my way over the weekend, but I am still sifting through it. And none of it directly pertains to this week anyway, so let's just jump right in what you're all wondering... will I get the boot right this week after missing it last week? The answer: beats the heck out of me!
There's been speculation that this is a one-day-double-boot episode like we saw in Vanuatu. I doubt it because they haven't hyped it at all in the commercials. I do think it's likely a single day, but there will only be one boot. In fact, I think this could be a very boring and predictable episode because the thing they're hyping is going to turn out to be a non-event: swimming in the crocodile lake. You know no one gets bitten by a croc because the most dangerous moment they can show us is a couple of guys sliding into the water. Oooh, scary. So yeah, I am figuring strategy wise, this episode will go by the numbers.
The challenge we see appears to be based on an ancient Maya ball game. Who wins? Well, I have had a feeling Yaxha was going to lose again and Stephenie's upset expression in one of the vidcaps suggests that result as well. As far as alliances at Yaxha go, Survivor Insider and last week's episode told us that Brian and Jamie both want to keep Lydia around. Morgan told us that Stephenie, Gary, Brianna and Amy formed an early alliance with her and Rafe. Of those four, Morgan believes that Gary and Brianna have a strong alliance. Clearly, Morgan herself was never really that firmly entrenched in that big alliance. From what I have been told, Gary and Rafe have an alliance with Stephenie. It appeared last episode that Lydia offered to stick with Gary and do whatever was needed if she stayed in the game.
Which Yaxha goes home this time?
Jamie and Brian don't appear to be part of the large alliance at Yaxha, but I admit I'd be surprised if they got rid of either one of them. Both are good at challenges. I think they'll be more at risk in a few episodes than right now. Of course, they are on the confessional analysis watch list and I am fairly certain Brian goes pre-merge.
Gary is definitely at risk based on confessional analysis. I really like a Gary boot here except for one reason - there's no hype about strategy in the previews. For Gary to go, there'd have to be some serious manuevering as he was in control of the voting last episode. Plus, well, I have some inside information which seems to indicate Gary lasts a while. If I am interpreting it correctly.
If it's not Gary, Amy is the obvious boot as she's injured according to the previews. We know this is the toughest Survivor ever and they're going to have to cut the weak links. If Amy is hurt badly enough, she's definitely going home.
For now, I think I am going with Amy for the second week in a row. Let's hope it works out better this time...
RC: (if there is one) Nakum