Guatemala Confessional Analysis, Episode 1
What is Confessional Analysis?
(a brief description)
By analyzing the content and number of Survivor confessionals, one can find patterns that point to who will last longer in the show. It began with dividing the confessionals into two types: tribal history confessionals (Ts) and tribe dynamics confessionals (Ds). What I discovered during season three (which is when I first started this) is that generally people with a lot of Ds go before people with a lot of Ts. Also, people who are not getting very many confessionals will be safe until we hear from them. This has only been one exception to the latter rule - Zoe from S4, who never got very many confessionals, had no real storyline, and was still booted. The Zoe Exception still rankles me.
A couple other things to look for:
1) There is usually pre-merge narrator. They get a lot of Ts early on and it looks like they'll go far and then wham, the person is voted out shortly after the merge. If someone is definitely narrating and then the Ds start piling up, watch out!
2) People who get confessionals about the theme of the show usually last longer. This was very clear in Africa and Thailand. Africa was all about the culture of the area. Lex, Ethan, and, to a lesser extent, Tom got those confessionals. That's three of the final four. In Thailand, it was all about how to win the game. The culture wasn't emphasized as much after the elders were allowed to pick tribes. Brian was constantly talking about his strategy - his meta-strategy confessionals convinced me he was going to go far. Brian, as we know, won.
3) In ten seasons, the only winner who didn't get a confessional in the first episode was Tina.
For Guatemala, the theme appears to be the difficult conditions and surviving that more than anything else.
Okay, let's dive into Survivor: Guatemala confessionals! Here are the codes:
T= tribal history confessional
D=tribal dynamics confessional
* = theme confessional
Stephenie - 7T/2D
Brian - 2T/1D
Morgan - 2T
Rafe - 1T/1D *
Gary - 1T/1D
Amy - 1T
Lydia - 1T
Brianna - 1T
Jamie - 1D
Margaret - 7T/1D *
Bobby Jon - 5T *
Cindy - 4T
Brandon - 2T/2D
Judd - 2T *
Brooke - 2T/1D
Danni - 1T
Blake - 1T
Jim - 2T
It's nearly impossible to make predictions after only one episode of confessional analysis, but what the hell, let's go for it anyway.
Margaret is clearly the narrator of Nakum. I don't think I have ever seen a first episode where one person gets so many more Ts than everyone else. I think she also had the key confessional of Nakum, and maybe the whole show, when she talked about how it's all about who can carry the tribe forward. Cindy surprised me with a bunch of confessionals. Brandon and Brooke are appearing as the most at risk people with a few D confessionals. Bobby Jon has a bunch of Ts, but that's to be expected as he's one of the stars of the show. He'll get the airtime because of his unique situation and we have to be careful not to assume that means he'll be okay.
Over at Yaxha, Stephenie also got a million confessionals, but I don't think that necessarily means anything at this point. Jamie, Rafe, Gary, and Brian all got Ds, but Gary was the only person who could have talked about his specific situation, so I wouldn't put too much stock in his D. One thing that's interesting to notice is that only the Yaxha men got the Ds in episode. Does that mean a man will go first? Personally, I think Brian is getting set up for an early boot. The editors laid the groundwork of his annoying behavior with his D confessional about how everyone knew he was right and they had to get moving. The key Yaxha confessional belonged to Rafe who talked about how the Yaxha spirit will keep them going despite how tired they are. People who get upbeat confessionals of that sort generally last a little while.
I wouldn't put much stock in this as it's too early to tell, but in danger for episode 2 based on confessional analysis:
Next week, I'll hopefully have a better idea of what is going on.