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Offline puddin

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Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« on: September 05, 2005, 09:55:57 AM »

Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
http://survivorthoughts.blogspot.com/

Sunday, September 04, 2005
Stephenie and Bobby Jon are playing the game

Jeff Probst all but confirmed that Stephenie and Bobby Jon are playing the game again during the TV Guide preview. He talked about how they have an advantage because they've done it before, but also noted that they'd have huge target on their backs because they've done it before. If they're not playing the game, they wouldn't have targets on their back. They're playing, folks.


Offline RudyRules

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2005, 05:02:48 AM »
Oh, I'm glad to find this and know for sure Steph & BJ are in fact gonna be on S11!
:t-up:

So what if they wait to appear AFTER the Merge...then they can compete individually for Immunity.  At least that would give them an advantage of going further.  I wonder if the others will know they've already been on survivor?  Will they be told &/or be recognized by the rest?  *(^  hmmm...

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Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2005, 01:56:33 PM »
Guatemala Confessional Analysis, Episode 1


What is Confessional Analysis?
(a brief description)

By analyzing the content and number of Survivor confessionals, one can find patterns that point to who will last longer in the show. It began with dividing the confessionals into two types: tribal history confessionals (Ts) and tribe dynamics confessionals (Ds). What I discovered during season three (which is when I first started this) is that generally people with a lot of Ds go before people with a lot of Ts. Also, people who are not getting very many confessionals will be safe until we hear from them. This has only been one exception to the latter rule - Zoe from S4, who never got very many confessionals, had no real storyline, and was still booted. The Zoe Exception still rankles me.

A couple other things to look for:

1) There is usually pre-merge narrator. They get a lot of Ts early on and it looks like they'll go far and then wham, the person is voted out shortly after the merge. If someone is definitely narrating and then the Ds start piling up, watch out!

2) People who get confessionals about the theme of the show usually last longer. This was very clear in Africa and Thailand. Africa was all about the culture of the area. Lex, Ethan, and, to a lesser extent, Tom got those confessionals. That's three of the final four. In Thailand, it was all about how to win the game. The culture wasn't emphasized as much after the elders were allowed to pick tribes. Brian was constantly talking about his strategy - his meta-strategy confessionals convinced me he was going to go far. Brian, as we know, won.

3) In ten seasons, the only winner who didn't get a confessional in the first episode was Tina.

For Guatemala, the theme appears to be the difficult conditions and surviving that more than anything else.

Okay, let's dive into Survivor: Guatemala confessionals! Here are the codes:

T= tribal history confessional
D=tribal dynamics confessional
* = theme confessional

Yaxha

Stephenie - 7T/2D
Brian - 2T/1D
Morgan - 2T
Rafe - 1T/1D *

Gary - 1T/1D
Amy - 1T
Lydia - 1T
Brianna - 1T
Jamie - 1D

Nakum
Margaret - 7T/1D *

Bobby Jon - 5T *

Cindy - 4T
Brandon - 2T/2D
Judd - 2T *

Brooke - 2T/1D
Danni - 1T
Blake - 1T
Jim - 2T

It's nearly impossible to make predictions after only one episode of confessional analysis, but what the hell, let's go for it anyway.

Margaret is clearly the narrator of Nakum. I don't think I have ever seen a first episode where one person gets so many more Ts than everyone else. I think she also had the key confessional of Nakum, and maybe the whole show, when she talked about how it's all about who can carry the tribe forward. Cindy surprised me with a bunch of confessionals. Brandon and Brooke are appearing as the most at risk people with a few D confessionals. Bobby Jon has a bunch of Ts, but that's to be expected as he's one of the stars of the show. He'll get the airtime because of his unique situation and we have to be careful not to assume that means he'll be okay.

Over at Yaxha, Stephenie also got a million confessionals, but I don't think that necessarily means anything at this point. Jamie, Rafe, Gary, and Brian all got Ds, but Gary was the only person who could have talked about his specific situation, so I wouldn't put too much stock in his D. One thing that's interesting to notice is that only the Yaxha men got the Ds in episode. Does that mean a man will go first? Personally, I think Brian is getting set up for an early boot. The editors laid the groundwork of his annoying behavior with his D confessional about how everyone knew he was right and they had to get moving. The key Yaxha confessional belonged to Rafe who talked about how the Yaxha spirit will keep them going despite how tired they are. People who get upbeat confessionals of that sort generally last a little while.

I wouldn't put much stock in this as it's too early to tell, but in danger for episode 2 based on confessional analysis:

Brandon
Brooke

Stephenie
Jamie
Brian

Next week, I'll hopefully have a better idea of what is going on.


Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2005, 02:04:04 PM »

Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2005, 06:57:54 PM »
Corvis thinks Nakum wins IC  :t-up:
not looking good for Lydia  |( ( on my MW team )
Amy,Gary or Brian..


Saturday, September 17, 2005
Bootsheet update

Check out the bootsheet.

Long story short: I don't care how sick Blake is, he's not going home yet. Pick someone else this week.


Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2005, 10:57:29 PM »
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Episode 2 Boot prediction

Well, I have decided I'm going with a Nakum win at the IC, which means Yaxha takes its first trip to Tribal Council.

(By the way, I pick Yaxha to win the Reward Challenge. I need to get that out of the way before I forget, so I don't get a big ol' blank in Anti's Across the Board Picks thread like last week. Like everyone didn't know Nakum won from the smoke seen in camp.)

So back to Yaxha. First of all, who's safe? Weight loss or source spoilers indicate Stephenie, Brianna, and Rafe survive a while. Morgan is in Rafe's alliance so she's probably safe. Everyone else is vulnerable to a greater or lesser extent. Stephenie noted that Jamie is the laziest tribe member. He's also one of the strongest, so I don't think he'll get booted. He might be the one who fights back when his work ethic is questioned, however. Lydia and Amy were singled out by Stephenie as the weakest tribe members. Gary is the oldest on the tribe, but he's no weakling and if you're going to boot someone weak, Lydia and Amy are better choices. Still, Gary did get a preview all about him which was strangely reminiscent of the preview Hunter got the week before he was booted during Survivor: Marquesas. And Brian is an interesting choice. We know that he can be arrogant; Probst told us that pre-game. We also got a taste of that in the first episode. From Confessional Analyisis:

The editors laid the groundwork of his annoying behavior with his D confessional about how everyone knew he was right and they had to get moving.

I could easily see us getting a lot of annoying attitude from Brian this episode and then he's booted. It could also take a little while longer than one episode to play out.

So let's go back to Amy and Lydia. Amy has the annoying personality thing going for her as well as being one of the weaker tribe members. If we had seen some of that annoying behavior last episode, this'd be a slam dunk choice. Jeff Probst really dissed Lydia's chances in pre-game interviews, which seems a strange choice if she really is booted first or second.

Basically we have a lot of questions and no real solid answers.

I think one of these four will get booted from Yaxha

Lydia /Brian/Amy Gary

Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2005, 08:00:40 PM »
Friday, October 07, 2005
New picks to the end

When the season started, I came up with this boot order:

Jim
Cindy
Amy
Brian
Blake
Brandon
Brianna
Jamie
Bobby Jon
Brooke
Danni
Morgan
Gary
Stephenie
Lydia
Rafe
Judd
Margaret - Sole Survivor

And I still like it pretty much. My biggest mistakes were having Cindy go so early and Gary and Morgan make it so far. So now that we're four episodes in, it's time to have some fun and predict the rest of the season based on what we know now.

Right now, the two tribes are in the unusual predicament of having a majority alliance that has to see losing the ICs as a way to get ahead, as original Yaxha has a majority on one tribe and original Nakum has a majority on the other. But I don't think any of them will be able to suppress their competitive spirit. What do I see happening is a nuYaxha meltdown. Confessional analysis points to Cindy making the merge, at least. Therefore, nuNakum can only go to Tribal Council once more pre-merge. And we have to have a double boot episode sometime soon, so we have to work that in. Let's assume that they don't do the double boot episode next since they just did the twist of the tribes. So I'm going with Yaxha losing immunity next and Amy getting booted. It could be Gary or Brian, but Amy seems to be the most logical boot.

Let's go with episode six as the double boot episode. Margaret (those Ds keeping coming) gets the boot at nuNakum and Gary (guy has too many Ds!) gets booted at nuYaxha. That gets us to eleven. There's one more pre-merge boot (assuming a merge at ten). It has to be Brian unless he is able to break into the Nakum alliance at Yaxha. That seems unlikely.

So the following people get the red merge buffs:
brandon
bj
danni
steph
cindy
blake
Judd
Lydia
rafe
jamie


When they merge there's an individual immunity challenge, of course, and if it's one of those perch challenges, look for Stephenie or Lydia to win it. Jamie, the strongest original Yaxha member, is booted and just misses the jury. Judd uses this vote to get back into his original tribe's good graces, making it a six to four vote. That's when things get tricky. Original Nakum has a six to three advantage, so they can afford to take out Bobby Jon, who they feel doesn't deserve to be there. And besides he's a physical threat. At this point Judd knows he's the low man on the totem pole and isn't going to win the game if he sticks with original Nakum. So he switches sides again and causes a tie. One of the original Nakum goes out in the tie breaker... let's say Blake. The new majority alliance of Stephenie, Rafe, Lydia and turncoat Judd take out Brandon, the biggest physical threat on that alliance. And now that they have the numbers, they can get rid of Judd. Cindy then wins immunity and Danni goes home in fifth place.

The Final Four:
cindy
rafe
lydia
stephanie



Stephenie wins immunity and that's the end of Cindy. Stephenie also wins the final immunity and chooses Rafe as her Final Two partner.

In a shocking vote, Stephenie wins Survivor Guatemala by getting at least the votes of Lydia, Bobby Jon, Cindy and Danni, as they respect the fact that she made it so far with a huge target on her back.


To sum up:

Amy - gone in episode 5
Margaret/Gary - double boot episode
Brian
Jamie - first merge boot
Bobby Jon
Blake - lost in a tiebreaker
Brandon
Judd
Danni
Cindy
Lydia
Rafe
Stephenie- Sole Survivor

Hey, it could happen.

http://survivorthoughts.blogspot.com/

Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2005, 11:02:55 AM »
Corvis's confessional analysis ... :t-up:



http://survivorthoughts.blogspot.com/

Offline RudyRules

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2005, 02:46:03 PM »
I'm not fully understanding the confessional T, D, * stuff.  *(^
 Puddin, where can I find more in depth info about it?
 :thankyou:
Ruday


Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2005, 02:56:37 PM »
here you go Ruday  :yaya:
T= tribal history confessional
D=tribal dynamics confessional
* = theme confessional

Gary - 1T/1D, 3T/4D, 2D, 1D, 1T/1D, 1D = 5T/10D
Brandon - 2T/2D, 1T/1D, 2T *, 1T *, 2T/3D, 2D = 8T/8D
Amy - 1T, 0T, 2T/1D, 4D, 2T/2D, 1T/1D = 6T/8D
Judd - 2T *, 2D, 2T/1D, 1T/4D, 4D, 1T/3D = 6T/14D

Over at Yaxha, it's clear Amy and Gary are still at risk based on confessional analysis. But look at Brandon! He's really had a good D spike the last couple of episodes. I could easily see him getting booted a couple episodes down the road. Bobby Jon and Danni were pretty much under the radar and should be safe for next episode. Watch for them to start getting more confessionals post-merge.

At Nakum, there's only one person at risk: Judd. Although Cindy got some Ds, she also got some Ts, too. And it's clear she knows how to keep her head down when people are firing shots at each other. Lydia and Jamie were mostly silent and Stephenie took an episode off as narrator and Rafe filled in. It's interesting that in episode 4, they had the same confessional breakdown: 1T/1D. Then in episode 5, Rafe had zero confessionals and Steph had 3T/1D. Check out episode 6 and we see the opposite happened, with Steph getting zero and Rafe getting 3T/1D. This parallel editing pattern makes me think they might end up in the Final 2, or at least have a very similar story post merge.


Offline puddin

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2005, 02:58:00 PM »
Corvis's early pick~~

Friday, October 21, 2005
Bootsheet has been updated

Check it out here.

Early prediction is Amy goes home next. We'll see what we get in terms of clues as the week progresses.

Offline RudyRules

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Re: Survivor Thoughts from Iowa (mostly)
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2005, 03:54:32 PM »
Thanks puddin.  :tada:
  Now, I better watch my survivor tapes closely to get a better sense on how to interpret dynamics, history, confessional & the difference thereof.  This reminds me of College Algebra for pete's sake!!  Logic. Yep that's it.  |(
Are there any details written by Corvis or someone on Confessional Analysis??


 

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