Vidcaps, Analysis and Predictions
Episode 10, "Exile Island"
By Garbotalk 4-18-05
Last week saw the demise of Koror's happy tribe as cracks in alliances began to surface. Coby appeared to be in a good position; he was in a sub-alliance with Janu and Caryn and a hidden alliance with Jenn and Gregg. Yet his irritation at Tom's leadership and pouting from being an outsider caused him to alienate his tribe, and Coby was sent packing. On the other hand, Stephenie went from lonely isolation on Ulong to being embraced and pursued by Koror players. Coby gave her the inside scoop, but when she immediately told Katie and Jenn, they twisted the story to make Coby look bad instead. Will Stephenie trust them? Let's look at the clues.
From the website promo: "VO: Last week Stephenie was rescued. But Survivor Thursday, are her new tribe mates plotting against her? Jenn: She needs to go."
Also from the website promo: "Stephenie: I'm really nervous."
Coby told Stephenie the truth, to his detriment and her advancement. She promptly threw it away by revealing what she had just heard to those plotting against her. Jenn and Katie saw to it Coby was ejected for revealing this information before he could get an alliance with Stephenie against them. Now they're aiming at Stephenie, and plotting her boot, making her nervous. Why would they want to boot Stephenie? Stephenie went up against Jenn at all the one-on-one challenge, and beat Jenn every time. She knows what a hard competitor Stephenie is, and knows she could never beat her physically. Also, Stephenie is popular with many of the other players who respect her work ethic and efforts in challenges, as well as her optimistic attitude. Jenn and Katie absolutely see her as a threat, no matter what Ian and Tom think about her. I don't believe Jenn and Katie will let Stephenie anywhere close to the end game. However, Stephenie is the red herring boot for this episode. She will go soon, but not yet.
This episode is full of cat claws as Katie solidifies her position as queen bee of the tribe.
From the end of episode preview: "Jeff: Next time on Survivor... Janu: What are we, junior high Katie? Jeff: ...Janu reaches her breaking point. Janu: If I had something to say about you I swear to God I'd come up and say it to your face."
From the website clues: "One castaway confronts her tribe, leaving everyone feeling uncomfortable and leaving her feeling alienated."
From TV Guide: "Janu gets upset at her tribe mates."
If there is one lesson everyone should learn from Survivor, it is that conflicts between players usually end up with one of them sent home by the rest, for the stability of the tribe. Katie "hears" that Janu said something negative about her. Did she overhear it? Or did her pawn Stephenie tattle tale again something she heard? In any case, Katie confronts Janu, who defends herself. Katie confronted Caryn a few episodes back, never raising her voice, and I imagine she will use this tactic again. This makes Katie look more "reasonable" in the argument, where a hot tempered Latin response from Janu will appear more unstable. It is a win win for Katie to pick a fight with someone who will fly off the handle, making Katie look like the victim when she actually caused the conflict in the first place. Of the two of them, who will the men side with, the funny girl who remains calm in an argument or the emotional one who cries one week and yells the next? I don't think the men of Koror like emotional outbursts, which is why Coby was sent packing for his pouting behavior last week. Katie will win this round.
This week's reward challenge is quite interesting. Here are the clues.
From the end of Episode Preview: "Jeff: A reward to remember."
From the Web Promo: "VO: Plus, 2 challenges that will push these castaways to the limit. Jeff: Mind over matter."
From another televised promo: "VO: TV Guide says these are the strongest Survivors ever. But will they be strong enough for two new challenges that will push them to the limit?"
From the website clues: "An unexpected performance by a tribe mate during a Challenge results in a victory for the team."
TV Guide did an article about the upcoming reward challenge with the pictures above, including the hand written plans for the challenge and some photos of Tom and Gregg participating. The challenge is called "Water Tower" and according to TV Guide, "Both teams must construct a scaffold that allows them to climb up and retrieve a flag hanging above the water. The first group to race back to shore with its flag wins." Additionally, there is a kicker, "The first piece of the tower is already in place, but the castaways must swim the other sections, one by one, 50 yards out into the water from shore. 'Once they have that piece assembled, they swim back, get the next [and] swim it out,' Kirhoffer says. Each metal part weighs up to 35 pounds." This challenge is certainly difficult. Here are some vidcaps from the promos.
The teams are Tom, Gregg, Janu and Caryn versus Ian, Stephenie, Katie and Jenn. Most likely, two players were made captains and alternated picking the players for their teams. So if Tom and Ian were made captains, Tom picked Gregg, Ian picked Steph, and so forth. Most of the players wear masks, but Ian chose to wear his glasses so he could see to put together the scaffolding under water. (He learned from the last under water challenge when he couldn’t find the floating white bottles that he doesn’t see well without glasses.)
The players can be seen assembling some of the scaffolding on land, then carrying larger sections out to the water where they have to connect it to the support piece already underwater. This looks quite difficult; however, Ian, Stephenie, Tom and Gregg are all very good under water. The challenge takes a long time to complete, and exhaustion will set in. In the vidcaps several green floating buoys are shown being carried back to shore. Tom carries a green buoy, while Gregg carries the green flag. Why there are two items to carry is not known. But Gregg seen swimming with the green flag is a good indication of a winning team..
The website clues mention that someone unexpected performs well in this challenge. I believe that person is Janu. Though Janu has been lying in the hammock constantly back at camp, she tends to give her all in challenges. In the vidcaps, she is swimming hard and seems productive. I think she will be a surprising asset to her team (more so than Katie and Jenn will be to their team), and will give her team the win. Reward: Tom/Gregg/Janu/Caryn.
The winning team gets to go to a local Palauan feast where they will see tribal dancing, eat and drink to their fill. Additional support for the Tom/Gregg/Caryn/Janu team winning is in this vidcap with the fish displayed and a man's arm reaching for a beer mug. The arm is pale and muscular, more Gregg or Tom than thin, long armed Ian. Probably it is Tom reaching for a beer mug. Let's hope he doesn't get drunk like he did on last week's episode! Now let's look at the immunity challenge.
From the end of episode preview: "Jeff: And the tribe can't believe their ears.
Jeff: <speaking to tribe at challenge> The first person to bail will be abandoned to live on your own."
From the web promo: Web Promo: "Gregg: I'm gonna miss her. VO: The winner gets immunity but in a Survivor first the loser will be exiled. Jeff: You will be taken to a deserted island to live on your own. VO: Don't miss a stunning new Survivor. CBS, Thursday."
From TV Guide: "The castaways take part in a challenge that sees the loser forced to live alone on another island."
From the website clues: "A twist at a Challenge brings very bad news for one Survivor."
Survivor often uses animal imagery to represent the players in the game. In this case, a group of birds fly away together, leaving one solo bird sitting along and isolated. So it is with this week's twist. Jeff tells the players that not only will there be a winner with immunity for the Immunity Challenge, but there will be a loser as well. The first one to give up will be punished with isolation on "Exile Island", the title of this week's episode. Apparently, the producers are tired of players giving up quickly and instead want maximum effort made in these challenges. By providing a punishment for the first one who gives up, they hope to motivate the players to really push hard to outlast one another.
Who will give up? It won't be Stephenie. She's had all she can stand of solo living, thank you very much. I doubt any of the men will give up either, so we can rule out Ian, Tom and Gregg. That leaves Katie, Jenn, Caryn and Janu. Of the four, I believe Janu and Caryn will last longer, simply because they've shown more resolve in challenges than the younger girls. Between Katie and Jenn, it is a toss up, but Gregg's statement on the web promo, "I'm gonna miss her," leads me to think he is talking about his snuggle mate Jenn. Exile: Jenn.
There are a series of what looks like monkey bars in the water at different heights. I imagine they will start out holding the bars under one set, then proceed to deeper and deeper bars. This is a prisoner of war torture type theme. Of course, they can let go and swim out from underneath them at any time, so there is no danger of drowning, unlike real Allied prisoners of war who had this Asian torture used on them in WWII. However, the mental challenge of remaining under water with only a nose and part of your face exposed to air is quite intimidating. If their arms get tired of holding them up, their noses will go underwater and salt water will fill their nostrils. Also, if the water splashes, water could also go up a nose. Who will win immunity?
ILUVJanuTornell, a poster at the MESS HALL on Survivor Sucks, noticed that the this screen shot of the players heading to tribal council includes Stephenie, but is not from last episode because the clothing is different than last week's tribal council. In this shot, no one walking is seen wearing the immunity necklace, with the exception of a partly hidden Tom. Though Jenn obscures a full view of Tom, his neck has the necklace on it. Immunity: Tom.
From the website clues: "In danger of going on the chopping block, a Survivor makes a heartfelt plea not to be voted off. Will this plea fall on deaf ears?"
Jenn who probably spent time away as the exile will return to vote with the tribe, because everyone is seen in the group walking with torch photo. Will she have to go back to exile after the vote, or get to return to camp? It is hard to say, but probably she'll get to return with her tribe. It will be interesting to see if this exile situation is something they will use from now on at immunity challenges, or just this one time. With Jenn away, Katie and Jenn can't conspire together, and Jenn can't convince Gregg to go along with her. This absence will probably foil the plan she and Katie made to oust Stephenie this week.
I believe Stephenie will be the one making a heart felt plea. She has tried so hard to last in this game, and feels she deserves to stay over perhaps other players who are not as hard working. She was willing to vote Coby out, aligning with the group vote last week, so she tried to do as she was asked by the group. She knows she's been conspired against, and she hopes that an emotional plea to stay will give her a chance. I'm sure it will. Stephenie is safe this week.
Last week, Janu was shocked to remain in the game. When Coby voted, he said he was voting for Janu because she asked him to. Janu wants to quit. She's tired and very thin. Coby said in exit interviews that she threw up often and had terrible diarrhea, which means she probably drank the water without boiling it enough and the bad water caused her to become sick. This is why she's been lying in the hammock and not helping at camp. Add to that the argument with Katie and the tensions that caused, I expect Janu to either quit outright, or possibly get voted out after asking the rest to vote for her. There may be two emotional pleas, Stephenie asking to stay and Janu asking to go. Boot: Janu.
thanks to survivorfever Puddin, there are pictures with all this, but did not make it here!!! could you get the vidcaps on this??