After thinking through what happened in Leg 11 of TAR25, I think that twists really become unpredictable, and the team spared in that situation was very lucky.
Aside from that though, TAR is a game of luck at times. Some are lucky to arrive in the F3, while some are eliminated by some bad luck.
Here are some of my examples:
TAR21: Beekman Boys: Survived several legs at the bottom with a NEL, a 4H penalty, and a delayed flight, but later on won the race.
TAR22: CaroJen: Beat the firefighters in a canoe race in the 1st leg, and later managed to survived (usually at the bottom) until the Final 4, but were called back for a 2nd try around the world in TAR24.
TAR23: Tim & Marie: They were risking not to use their EP after knowing that they were way behind other teams in Leg 3. Lucky for them, Marie predicted right that there was a team behind them.
TAR25: Brooke & Robbie: Normally at the back of the pack for the earlier legs of the race. They somehow caught up towards the end of each leg.
TAR16: Louie & Michael: They were at the back of the pack for most times in earlier legs and were almost eliminated in Leg 2. They won some legs in Europe and got to the F4.
Who else do you think is an extremely lucky team?