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TAR 21 Predictions

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West Africa might be next? To some unexpected new country for two legs like Netherlands-Burkina Faso.

Possibly, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Togo, Benin, Cameroon or Liberia.

So far I think this a route:
Leg 1 - China
Leg 2 - Indonesia
Leg 3 - Indonesia
Leg 4 - Asian Country
leg 5 - Bangladesh
Leg 6 - Turkey
Leg 7 - Russia
Leg 8 - Russia
Leg 9 - European Country
Leg 10 - Netherlands

I have a hunch that historic patterns of non-usage (except for AR8) will be overturned by AR21 visiting Central America. There are international airports here:

Guatemala City
San Salvador
Costa Rica
and of course Panama City

There are no direct flights from Amsterdam to any of these except (as we know from AR19) Panama City. The one flight per day AMS PTY is KL757 1310 1710. However, I don't think that a twice visited country will be visited a third time. I think that one of Guatemala, San Salvador, Honduras or Nicaragua, followed by a visit to Belize (where WRP had everything set up for an earlier Amazing Race but had to reroute it).

To continue this line of thinking back into the United States, there are only 3 airports which appear to have nonstop flights on Saturdays, Miami, Houston and DFW. None of them have morning arrivals; all of them arrive in mid-afternoon:

BZE MIA AA2180 1120 1530
BZE MIA AA2104 1420 1825

BZE IAH UA5478 1125 1459
BZE IAH UA1405 1248 1624

BZE DFW AA2146 1230 1630

So that leads me back to San Salvador as a maybe better airport to leave Central America from.

That leads to these further analyses of flights from San Salvador, which are quite superior to those from Belize in earlier arrivals:

SAL MIA TA310 0855 1335

SAL IAH UA1467 0620 1032
SAL IAH TA424 0855 1305

SAL DFW TA440 0844 1304
SAL DFW A1998 0820 1250

SAL LAX TA422 1057 1327

There are additional afternoon flights but the same logic as above leads me to ignore them.


--- Quote from: apskip on June 11, 2012, 05:37:01 PM ---mjriches,

I think you have a terrific idea there. Iceland is a perfect location for the last stop. However, there are only 2 U.S. destination cities are feasible due to nonstop flights. I do not believe that World Race Productions will choose somewhere where it has to be connecting flights. So that eliminates Orlando, Washington-IAD and Chicago (which you did not have but which was the reverse direction in AR6).

Since WRP is unlikely to land a finale in the U.S. late afternoon, here are unlikely-to-be-used nonstop flights from Reykjavik to:

New York JFK Icelandair 615 1700 1900
Minneapolis  Icelandair 657 1645 1805
Denver         Icelandair 671 1645 1840
Seattle         Icelandair 681 1700 1845

That leaves these 2 flights as the prime possibilities if Iceland is the penultimate leg of AR21:

New York JFK Icelandair 613 1030 1230
Boson          Icelandair 635 1030 1205

--- End quote ---

Chicago was left off the list because Icelandair doesn't fly there.  I was only using current direct flights only.
-Also another possible penultimate leg would be Cape Verde.  Off the Northwest African coast, it would also be plausible because there is one flight direct to Boston from Praia on TACV Airlines.

They use Nethelands leg to change continent every time:
S12:Europe-Africa( Burkina Faso)
S19:Asia-Central America(Panama)

So I predict next legs of TAR21:
Leg10:a new country(central america)


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