Author Topic: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)  (Read 65532 times)

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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #300 on: February 28, 2016, 06:32:13 PM »
I don't deal with the international editions, as I don't get to see any of them. If you want to supply me with all of the seasons of all those editions, so I can confirm the application of common placement averaging objectively, then I'll consider a separate computation for all of those. Thus these threads apply to the mothership, as everyone has gotten broadcast access at one time or another.

I should have leg 3 leaderboard and leaderboard trends up within a day or two.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2016, 11:10:45 AM by theschnauzers »
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #301 on: March 10, 2016, 11:21:13 AM »
This is the first of the leaderboard trends for season 28. From week to week, most of the teams have had a poor leg while otherwise good, or the obverse (a good leg but otherwise not good, and some have been stready. It really doesn't reflect the near 8-way tie at the end of leg 4, but these are averages, first of all, and second of all, and third of all.

For the first one, I am listing the placement averages as of the end of each of the first four legs. That is how we document the actual generalization of each team's trend line. I;ve decided that although it is harder for me to format, I'm am going to have the oldest leg to the left, and the newest leg at the right for each team's set of placement average.

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent leg)
Leg 1 Leg 2 Leg 3 Leg 4 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Tyler-Korey 2.0000 1.5000 1.6666 1.7500 steady
Kurt-Brodie 5.0000 3.5000 2.6666 2.0000 rising
Dana-Matt 1.0000 2.5000 3.0000 3.0000 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 6.0000 4.5000 4.0000 4.0000 steady
Zach-Rachel 3.0000 4.5000 6.0000 5.7500 falling slowly
Erin-Joslyn 10.0000 7.5000 7.3333 7.0000 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 9.0000 8.5000 7.6666 7.5000 rising slowly
Scott-Blair 11.0000 10.0000 9.3333 9.0000 rising slowly
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000 7.0000 6.3333 7.0000 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 4.0000 7.0000 8.0000 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 8.0000 9.5000 9.5000
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Offline Marionete

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #302 on: March 11, 2016, 07:20:02 AM »
How are the averages calculated?
Each placement of when the team is shown "Currently in X place"?

And if Dana & Matt are slowly falling, why aren't Burnie & Ashley slowly rising? Their (dis)improvements are identical.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2016, 07:23:12 AM by Marionete »

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #303 on: March 11, 2016, 02:43:16 PM »
Please read the opening post of the original overall ranking the teams thread. As to the "slowly" part it is partially subjective because this first time, I'm looking at four legs, not three, and I'm also taking into account the fact that the eight remaining teams were essentially in a first place tie. And I tried to give less weight to the first leg as opposed to the other three legs.After leg 5, I will only be using three legs and the characterization will be clearer. You do need to visualize how the averages look on a graph to get what the trend lines are.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2016, 05:54:28 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline Marionete

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #304 on: March 11, 2016, 05:55:20 PM »
Okay, I will. :tup: Which thread is the original one though? :lol:

I just meant that from leg 1 to leg 4 Dana & Matt had placement changes of +1.5/+0.5/+0, while Burnie & Ashley had -1.5/-0.5/-0, so the trends are simply opposite, but shouldn't be different in a way that only one is slowly changing. ???


Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #305 on: March 13, 2016, 06:23:56 PM »
The original thread is the other thread.  :groan:

Here's an example of ambiguity and the verbal description of a team's trend. Suppose the team's average for the three most recent legs are 4.0, 4.5, 4.0. Not clear by itself was the trend is. Suppose you then knew that prior to those three legs, the team has a 4.5. Verbally, I'd say the team was steady because there is minimum movement. Suppose the average on that prior leg the team was a 5.0, or conversely a 4.0. You have a trendline that has slowed from either direction; rising or slowing. Or yo have a team that has been widely gyrating, which could be indeterminate. The point is that it doesn't take much to go from "slowly" to steady or the other way around, or from "rising" or "falling" to "slowly";

A team that stays one place above the bottom is slowly going to rise slowly by the nature of the process, a team that stays at the same placement or varies no mire than by one, is doing to be steady with minor shifts getting smaller as a decimal and the Race proceeds. Because that is the nature of the computation,, I take these patterns into account to a small degree in attaching a verbal label.  This also explains why it is inexact.

I should have it up by tomorrow aometime.
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Offline toanglobal

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #306 on: March 15, 2016, 05:05:54 AM »
I don't know if this has been mentioned but do Marc & Rovilsen of Tar Asia 2 have the lowest average at 1.46153846 on all 13 legs they only came in 1st and 2nd except ironically the last leg which they placed 3rd!
If TAR Asia 2 were counted as 13 legs, we would have Marc & Rovilson won 8 legs, Adrian & Collin won 3 legs and Ann & Diane, Pamela & Vanessa won a leg each, and this season is also marked with no Co-ed teams finished 1st and 2nd in any leg
http://realityfanwiki.com/index.php?title=The_Amazing_Race_Asia_2

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #307 on: March 26, 2016, 07:22:56 PM »
I don't know if this has been mentioned but do Marc & Rovilsen of Tar Asia 2 have the lowest average at 1.46153846 on all 13 legs they only came in 1st and 2nd except ironically the last leg which they placed 3rd!
If TAR Asia 2 were counted as 13 legs, we would have Marc & Rovilson won 8 legs, Adrian & Collin won 3 legs and Ann & Diane, Pamela & Vanessa won a leg each, and this season is also marked with no Co-ed teams finished 1st and 2nd in any leg
http://realityfanwiki.com/index.php?title=The_Amazing_Race_Asia_2


Not sure this has much to do with this thread. Perhaps someone familiar with the placements of all of the non-US editions would like to take on a companion set of threads? I have seen little of any of the international editions, so I'm not qualified to comment.

Meanwhile in the next post, we return to our topic.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #308 on: March 26, 2016, 07:25:18 PM »
Here's the second analysis of leaderboard trends following leg 5. I held this for this weekend, as the show returns on Friday.

Code: [Select]

Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 3 Leg 4 Leg 5 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Tyler-Korey 1.6666 1.7500 1.6000 steady
Kurt-Brodie 2.6666 2.0000 2.0000 steady
Dana-Matt 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 steady
Burnie-Ashley 4.0000 4.0000 4.4000 falling slowly
Zach-Rachel 6.0000 5.7500 5.6000 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.6666 7.5000 7.4000 rising slowly
Scott-Blair 9.3333 9.0000 8.0000 rising
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
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Offline Marionete

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #309 on: March 27, 2016, 03:50:08 PM »
The original thread is the other thread.  :groan:
This one? >> http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,26663.0.html
But it was started almost 2 years later, so this doesn't make much sense to me :lol:

Concerning the trends for Dana/Matt and Burnie/Ashley that I mentioned before, I still don't understand why identical graphs produce different tags, but whatever, there's not much significance to it if you don't feel like bothering.


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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #310 on: March 27, 2016, 05:02:14 PM »
I answered your question in the above post; the season by season thread was started because of some confusion over how the early season leg by leg results especially as, at the time, double leg mid points were not available in most places (Wiki now does show them), and I posted my personal contemporaneous notes of that information.

The point was that the "other thread" includes a lengthy and detailed explanation of how team placement averages are computed. As to the leaderboard trends, as I noted before, there is a subjective element to it and it isn't possible to make it perfectly quantitative. You may interpret the same data any way you wish. That doesn't mean I am bound by your interpretation, any more than the other direction.
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Offline ianthebalance

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #311 on: March 27, 2016, 10:25:45 PM »
Kurt and Brodie should have a 2.2500 on leg 4 and 2.2000 on leg 5

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #312 on: April 08, 2016, 02:04:36 AM »
Noted.

Leaderboard trends after leg 6:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 4 Leg 5 Leg 6 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.0000 2.2000 2.0000 steady
Tyler-Korey 1.7500 1.6000 2.3333 falling slowly
Dana-Matt 3.0000 3.0000 3.1666 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 4.0000 4.4000 4.0000 rising slowly
Zach-Rachel 5.7500 5.6000 5.1666 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.5000 7.4000 7.3333 rising slowly
Scott-Blair 9.0000 8.0000 7.5000 rising slowly
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #313 on: April 10, 2016, 10:40:26 PM »
Leaderboard trends after leg 7:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 5 Leg 6 Leg 7 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.2000 2.0000 2.1428 steady
Tyler-Korey 1.6000 2.3333 2.8571 falling slowly
Dana-Matt 3.0000 3.1666 3.2857 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 4.4000 4.0000 3.7142 rising slowly
Zach-Rachel 5.6000 5.1666 4.5714 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.4000 7.3333 7.0000 rising slowly

28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #314 on: April 20, 2016, 02:19:18 PM »
Leaderboard trends after leg 8:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 6 Leg 7 Leg 8 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.0000 2.1428 2.0000 steady
Tyler-Korey 2.3333 2.8571 2.8750 falling slowly
Dana-Matt 3.1666 3.2857 3.5000 falling slowly
Burnie-Ashley 4.0000 3.7142 3.5000 rising slowly
Zach-Rachel 5.1666 4.5714 4.5000 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.3333 7.0000 6.8750 rising slowly

28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-28 (current!)
« Reply #315 on: April 24, 2016, 02:47:55 AM »
Leaderboard trends after leg 9:

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 7 Leg 8 Leg 9 Trend Final Placement
Line Average
Kurt-Brodie 2.1428 2.0000 2.3333 steady
Tyler-Korey 2.8571 2.8750 2.6666 steady
Burnie-Ashley 3.7142 3.5000 3.3333 rising slowly
Dana-Matt 3.2857 3.5000 3.5555 falling slowly
Sheri-Cole 7.0000 6.8750 6.4444 rising slowly

28-06 Zach-Rachel 4.6666
28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000

I've used the trend word of "steady" to describe three teams that are staying within a narrow range; and the other two teams are rising, but very slowly.

As to a projection of the finishing placement average for the final three teams, I have computed a range from the best possible finishing average to the lowest. It's apparent that leg 10 will end in an elimination, and the final elimination would be either at the end of leg 11 or at a point early in leg 12. For all practical purposes, I treat those the same way in computing a range of possible finishing averages, the difference, as shown below, is that a team could finish fourth in leg 11, and not be eliminated at the elimination point in leg 12; thus both are shown below.
At this point the ranges are as follows:

Code: [Select]
Best Worse Worse
Current [leg 9] Possible Finish Possible Finish Possible Finish
(Final 3) (Final 3)(4th on leg 11)(Final 3)(4th on leg 12)
[1st- 1st -1st] [4th -3rd - 3rd ] [4th - 4th - 3rd ]
Kurt-Brodie 21/9 2.3333 24/12 2.0000 31/12 2.5833 32/12 2.6666
Tyler-Korey 24/9 2.6666 27/12 2.2500 34/12 2.8333 35/12 2.9166
Burnie-Ashley 30/9 3.3333 33/12 2.7500 40/12 3.3333 41/12 3.4166
Dana-Matt 32/9 3.5555 35/12 2.9166 42/12 3.5000 43/12 3.5833
Sheri-Cole 58/9 6.4444 61/12 5.0833 68/12 5.6666 69/12 5.7500
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 10:36:00 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline theschnauzers

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fixed error in previous post

Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 8 Leg 9 Leg 10 Trend Final Placement
Line Average

Tyler-Korey 2.8750 2.6666 2.5000 rising slowly
Burnie-Ashley 3.5000 3.3333 3.2000 rising slowly
Dana-Matt 3.5000 3.5555 3.5000 steady
Sheri-Cole 6.8750 6.4444 6.2000 rising slowly

28-05 Kurt-Brodie 2.6000
28-06 Zach-Rachel 4.6666
28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000
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Offline theschnauzers

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post leg 11 trend analysis:

For the record, there's no overlap of the ranges of final placement averages for the final three teams. Ought to be interesting to see how luck plays a part in the final leg this season:


Code: [Select]
Placement Averages (in order by most recent three legs)

Leg 9 Leg 10 Leg 11 Trend Final Placement
Line Average

Tyler-Korey 2.6666 2.5000 2.3636 rising slowly
Dana-Matt 3.5555 3.5000 3.3636 rising slowly
Sheri-Cole 6.4444 6.2000 5.9090 rising slowly

28-04 Burnie-Ashley 3.2727
28-05 Kurt-Brodie 2.6000
28-06 Zach-Rachel 4.6666
28-07 Scott-Blair 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 9.5000

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Offline theschnauzers

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Final placement averages for season 28:

Code: [Select]
Final Placement Average

28-01 Dana-Matt 38/12 3.1666
28-02 Sheri-Cole 67/12 5.5833
28-03 Tyler-Korey 29/12 2.4166
28-04 Burnie-Ashley 36/11 3.2727
25-05 Kurt-Brodie 26/10 2.6000
28-06 Zach-Rachel 42/9 4.6666
26-07 Scott-Blair 52/7 7.4285
28-08 Erin-Joslyn 36/5 7.2000
28-09 Jessica-Brittany 28/4 7.0000
28-10 Cameron-Darius 24/3 8.0000
28-11 Marty-Hagan 19/2 9.5000
These will be used in the O.P. of the other thread with the master list of team placements from TAR 1 to 28; that takes a little time because the every ten team spacing has to be manually reset every season to incorporate new teams, and because of the conventions I use for team placements with the same averages.
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