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Author Topic: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations  (Read 4139 times)

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Offline Brown Guy

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Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« on: July 12, 2004, 11:49:30 PM »
Okay today i was sitting here reading some posts when i thought about doing some logical thinking about the premiere. It is advertised everywhere that S9 will premiere in September. And correct me if im wrong but Survivor episodes usually premiere on;

1 x Wednesday Premiere
2 x Sunday Premiere
5 x Thursday Premiere

Well considering the trend there is a 63 % chance of a Thursday Premiere, 25 % chance of Sunday Premiere and 12% chance of Wednesday Premiere. So using these dates:

Wednesdays in September: 1, 8, 15, 22, 29
Sundays in September: 5, 12, 19, 26
Thursdays in September: 2, 9, 16, 23, 30

Next well divide the month in to 4 quadrants:
1-7, 8-15, 16-23, 24-31
And now we will place the dates in to each quadrant:
Q1 1-7: 3, 21%
Q2 8-15: 4 29%
Q3 16-23: 4 29%
Q4 24-31: 3 21%

Now out of all survivor premieres there are 2 in september, Pearl Islands September 18th, and Survivor Thailand September 19th

So taking that in to account the greatest chance is that the Premiere will be in Q3 of September so the 4 dates are;
September 16, 18, 22, 23
Now using the previous stats these days correspond with these days:
Wednesday: 22
Thursday: 16, 23
Sunday: 19,

Now that we have these four dates in with the days, u can see that there are 2 Thursdays and 1 each of the other 2. This means that These are the possible chances:
Formula: day possiblility percentage divided by 4 times 100 (eg. Wednesday: .12/4=0.03x100=3)
Wednesday September 22nd: 3
Thursday September 16: 16
Thursday September 23: 16
Sunday September 19th: 6.25
                          Total: 41.25
Now im going to divide the date numbers from the previous equation with the total and multiply times 100 so the final possibilities are:

Wednesday September 22nd: 7.27%
Thursday September 16: 38.79%
Thursday September 23: 38.79%
Sunday September 19th: 15.15%

So according to my calculations the top 4 likely dates are:
1.Thursday September 16: 38.79%
2.Thursday September 23: 38.79%
3.Sunday September 19th: 15.15%
4.Wednesday September 22nd: 7.27%


Now remember this is all speculation and my figures or calculations can be completely wrong. But if somehow one of these 4 dates ends up to be rite i shall then forth will be known as the "Brown Einstein Guy"

LOL any thoughts, or maybe somebody wanna try to prove me wrong?
« Last Edit: July 13, 2004, 02:41:56 PM by Brown Guy »
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Offline puddin

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2004, 12:04:37 AM »
 :D :D I don't dare try to argue with you BrownGuy  :D !! I can't wait to see how you predictions turn out   :;>) This is the one that i'll choose ~2.Thursday September 23: 38.79%

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Offline nelehrox

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2004, 12:44:01 AM »
Wow lol thats a lot of confusing stuff...so Im just gonna go with September 19th because thats when they premeired Thailand.

Offline Rob

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2004, 05:45:11 AM »
Jeepers, talk about thinking something out!!!! WOW! I think you are on to something there!

Rob

Offline nelehrox

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2004, 12:46:05 PM »
Now I am gonna go with the 16th...cuz that is the earliest one on the list of the four most likely. ;D


Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2004, 02:31:05 PM »
OMG I MADE A TERRIBLE MISTAKE IN MY CALCULATIONS, ILL FIX ASAP!
A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around!
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Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2004, 02:43:02 PM »
Okay i fixed the mistake and the percentages remain the same. The mistake i mad was that September 18th is a Saturday not a Sunday, but i fixed it so no worries.
A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around!
~John Tudor

Offline irelen

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2004, 08:39:09 PM »
Hey Brown Guy, by any chance, in real life are you an engineer? That was WAY too much math for me buddy!

Offline puddin

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2004, 09:07:06 PM »
LOL ..irelen ..how about it Brownguy??
 
 

Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2004, 12:19:13 AM »
I hate to break it to u guys but im still a highschool student  ?:) Just finished grade 10 about 2 1/2 wekks ago LOL
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Offline Bathfizzy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2004, 12:21:52 AM »
Wow, you are amazing at math and speculating.  I am going to go for the 23rd because I think they start the new season of tv shows the week before and this is the day after Fall begins so what a great way to extend your summer by viewing Survivor.   ;D

Offline RudyRules

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2004, 12:38:13 AM »
Say whaaat??!! Oy! Brown Guy...you lost me somewhere, but I'll take your word for it! LOL!!
I pick the 23rd, b/c Survivor usually begins the week following the Big Bro finale.  (not sure of the exact date.)

You are quite the WHIZ KID!!  8) Cool!

Ruday

Offline irelen

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2004, 09:11:12 PM »
I am seriously thinking about moving to Canada so my son (17 months old now) can become a math wiz like you when he gets older brown guy!

Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2004, 10:10:14 PM »
LoL that would be awesome Canada would welcome u with open arms. Not to mention theres great perks including free education up to university and FREE HEALTHCARE!
A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around!
~John Tudor

Offline puddin

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2004, 10:16:29 PM »
 ;D ;D...Get my room ready BrownGuy..i'm packing my bags

Congratulations on you newborn irelen  :-*

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Offline BeyondRealLife

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2004, 01:00:21 AM »
Yes brownguy Canada is a great place to live.
Too bad we can't get on to surivior or any
game show for the same reason :-\
but I'm ok with that so long as Canadian television continues
to play survivor season after season.
I pick September 16th for the start date.
Seems reasonable.

BRL
BRL

Offline irelen

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2004, 10:28:33 PM »

Thanks puddin. Hey BrownGuy, I am liking the free health care. i forgot about that! Do you have any idea how much immunizations alone cost in the first couple of years?

Wait, then I'd have to hear all of you Canadians say "Sore-y" instead of sorry! I don't know "abooot" all of that!

Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2004, 12:36:38 AM »
Well all canadians dont talk like that. It varies from province to province. That would be more of a small town accent imo. think of it as like how in america people from different states sound different.
A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around!
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Offline RudyRules

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2004, 02:12:44 PM »
LoL that would be awesome Canada would welcome u with open arms. Not to mention theres great perks including free education up to university and FREE HEALTHCARE!

Which province do you live in, BG?  I have an internet friend who lives in North Bay, ON.  She's about your age, just finished the 11th grade, exceptionally intelligent and motivated.

Wow, Canada pays for university??  My friend is planning to go, but she keeps talking about saving money for it.  What kind of FREE program does Canada have for high level education?

And free health care?  Cool!  8)

Rudy

Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2004, 11:59:57 PM »
sorri i think u misunderstood, education is free UP TO but not including university. But average tuition here is only ~6000$ (CDN) per year. +housing costs. University if free however if u are of native/aboriginal decent. i actually live in ontario too, in toronto.
A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around!
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Offline BeyondRealLife

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2004, 02:33:01 AM »
Ah, a fellow Ontario native.
Toronto is a big place to live
brownguy. I perfer living a little
south of you (2hrs. I would guess)
in the small city of London. Great to
know that i have a fellow Canadian
here posting some great info. I know just
what its like to have to pay for college about
$3000 a year for me in a 3 year program. But
our free health care is a great thing to have
because things can really add up.

brownguy is right though. The Canadain accent varies from place
to place and person to person. I say about, and sorry. But I know
what you're talking "aboot" when you say we have an accent.  ;D
Just like people in New York or Brooklyn talk funny when I hear them speak.

BRL
BRL

Offline puddin

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2004, 06:57:04 PM »
found this :D

http://www.tvweek.com/news/web071804.html

CBS Entertainment President Nancy Tellem announced that most of the 2004-05 schedule would premiere the week of Sept. 20. "Survivor: Vanuatu" debuts a week earlier on Thursday, Sept. 16. Tuesday night's lineup of "NCIS," "Clubhouse" and "Judging Amy" premieres Sept. 28, but "Clubhouse" gets a special chance at bat on Sunday, Sept. 26 at 8 p.m. "Cold Case" premieres Sunday, Oct. 3, and "Dr. Phil" McGraw's two-hour prime-time special airs Wednesday, Sept. 15 at 9 p.m.

BTW , I would love to come visit you both in Canada?'Oy"

Offline Blue Jean Baby

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2004, 11:11:26 PM »
i wish Sept Would hurry up and get here....

Offline Brown Guy

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Re: Vanuatu Premiere Speculations
« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2004, 12:52:04 AM »
LMAO thats awesome i was right september 16th was choice number one!!! ;D :D B:) :;>)
A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around!
~John Tudor


 

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