If somehow Kellie & Jamie managed to not get lost/not stall their car/finish the Roadblock, they would hit the pit stop in a safe position and Lyn & Karlyn would be eliminated. They'll probably be safe in Leg 3 with Duke & Lauren's series of mistakes. But I don't know if they could power through the Detour in Vietnam II, even with both Dustin & Kandice and Tom & Terry struggling at it too. Let's say Tom & Terry were eliminated, the Six Pack Alliance could still form between Erwin & Godwin, David & Mary, and Kellie & Jamie, since the three teams, Lyn & Karlyn and Tom & Terry bonded on the bus on their way to Mongolia in Leg 2. In the next two legs, a non-elimination and Peter & Sarah's navigation troubles could probably save them, but after that, especially with the Intersection, is a toss up. I'll ballpark them in 5th/6th place. That leaves Dustin & Kandice, Tyler & James, Rob & Kimberly, and Erwin & Godwin in the Final 4. The Yield in Morocco would probably go unused (if Erwin & Godwin outran Dustin & Kandice, they would not use it because they are "nice"). Finally in Spain, Dustin & Kandice still have that MFE penalty (they would miss that Detour site from last leg), and their navigation problems. My guess, Tyler & James would still win.
So, you bet the cheerleaders join Sixpack alliance instead if they not eliminated on leg 2
. I thought they would join with Models and/or BQ to form alliance (due to their eye candy looking apperance perhaps?
). Well, that nothing for me anyway.
For the Cheerleaders, I think 5th/6th place finish is very decent for them even though I think they can make it further on the race maybe barely scrapped the F3 spot by luck
but not ultimately win the race.
But since you predict F4 would be Models, Roberly, Chos and BQ, then it is still works fine for me. I agree that BQ still have navigation issues on Morocco/Spain, might get MFE on Morroco and maybe eliminated on Spain. Not sure about the Chos that if they didn't make fatal mistake on Morroco - Spain leg, then BQ will be eliminated, otherwise Chos will be elimated and BQ barely make into F3 even with MFE.
On F3, this will be tight footrace between Models, Roberly, BQ/Chos based on their high competitiveness. I think all of them might manage to get on board with the same flight from Paris CDG to JFK. I still think Models win the race that they have massive big luck with their taxi having EZ Pass to get through the toll. (Assuming the other 2 teams don't have EZ Pass & use cash lane )