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Author Topic: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**  (Read 143453 times)

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Offline Lucybell

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #425 on: December 15, 2011, 07:15:15 AM »
Well the Tweeter said he saw Brenchel on his flight TO Beijing, so how did they know they were heading onwards to Mongolia? Would Brenchel really have told them the truth about their final destination?

I think Rachel would have...  :cmaslol


Offline kathleenykl

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #426 on: December 15, 2011, 07:24:18 AM »
It's one of the few semi-believable leads we have for this season, so I am definitely hoping for the best.

A leg in Beijing OR Mongolia would be the most probable as a final foreign leg too, given the proximity (flight-wise) to the US. If I remember correctly, Season 10 went to Mongolia, so it could be a good time to visit again. Also in that season teams took a train instead of flight from Beijing to Mongolia, so maybe we could check on train times too.
Is a Beijing leg possible?

The only other possibility is the team seen was eliminated, and on their way from Qatar back to the US. But wouldn't a westward flight be of shorter distance than an eastward via China?

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Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #427 on: December 15, 2011, 08:13:59 AM »
let al calm down is possiable be mongalia and south africa too mabye it goes up make turn around to africa

Offline Declive

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #428 on: December 15, 2011, 08:38:46 AM »
let al calm down is possiable be mongalia and south africa too mabye it goes up make turn around to africa

Yeah,but  Italy --> Doha --> Kathmandu ---> Delhi ---> Beijing ---> Mongolia  ---> Durban?

I don't see how...

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Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #429 on: December 15, 2011, 08:46:53 AM »
let al calm down is possiable be mongalia and south africa too mabye it goes up make turn around to africa

Yeah,but  Italy --> Doha --> Kathmandu ---> Delhi ---> Beijing ---> Mongolia  ---> Durban?

I don't see how...

it could work think back season 7


Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #430 on: December 15, 2011, 09:02:06 AM »
:lol3:
« Last Edit: December 16, 2011, 09:03:00 AM by Prophet »
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Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #431 on: December 15, 2011, 09:20:33 AM »
You beat me to the punch, sir.

I suspect Mongolia is the penultimate pit stop. We've shifted from 'hold the last two legs in the same metropolis' (Moscow, Beijing, Prague, Shanghai) to 'hold the penultimate leg in a random location and adjust the pit stops so that everyone is together' (Seoul, RDJ, Panama City).

And as far as connections go, they were flying to Mongolia - Ulanbator isn't a hub in any stretch so I'd imagine if they were there, it would be for racing purposes.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #432 on: December 15, 2011, 10:09:57 AM »
let al calm down is possiable be mongalia and south africa too mabye it goes up make turn around to africa

Yeah,but  Italy --> Doha --> Kathmandu ---> Delhi ---> Beijing ---> Mongolia  ---> Durban?

I don't see how...
Let's get real here. The probability of that type of route structure is so close to 0 it is not worth considering. Going to Mongolia is very feasible, but once there teams would fly to the U.S., not backtrack to Durban.

it could work think back season 7
Let's get real here. The probability of that type of route structure is so close to 0 it is not worth considering. Going to Mongolia is very feasible, but once there teams would fly to the U.S., not backtrack to Durban.

For those who remember it, AR7 went east as far as Lucknow and Alleppey in India before turning back westward. Mongolia (let's say Ulaanbataar just for reference purposes) is another roughly 2500 miles. At that point a race is clearly continuing eastward across the Pacific Ocean.

If Durban was right and Beijing and Mongolia are not, then AR20 would be headed generally northwest to reach the U.S. more than 8000 miles away.

Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #433 on: December 15, 2011, 10:13:27 AM »
think my head i think it feasible but mongllia mabye it connect flight

Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #434 on: December 15, 2011, 10:29:58 AM »
My gut instinct on the recent sightings in South Africa and on the flight to Mongolia is to believe the one in South Africa and to not believe Mongolia. The woman in South Africa has a fairly long history on Twitter (at least well before the start of TAR 20) and has some reasonable sounding details.

The woman who reportedly saw Rachel Reilly on the plane has done the vast bulk of her 131 tweets in the last 3 or 4 days. She seems obsessed with celebrity gossip. How likely would it be for someone from London to know all about Big Brother US to the point of knowing a competitor on a plane and the fan nickname "Brenchel"? She talks about being a college student in some earlier tweets, but one of her latest tweets talks about going to ShenYang to interview orphans.  If she's flying from Qatar to ShenYang, would she be going through Mongolia? Without knowing much about airline routing in that part of the world, it doesn't seem like a likely connection point. She also mentions the Qatari stewardesses wearing an "inconvenient facecloth thingum" Anyone know if that's true or just a fantasy?  Also, she writes like someone from the Survivor Sucks board. Frankly, this smells like a slightly more involved version of the false tweets we were getting early in the race.

The woman from South Africa writes quite a bit about celebrities too, but it seems more believable. I suppose both could be fakes though.

I kind of like the idea of sequester being in Mongolia.  :cmaslol
« Last Edit: December 15, 2011, 10:37:42 AM by Plaidmoon »


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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #435 on: December 15, 2011, 10:39:38 AM »
I agree, Plaidmoon, also because if they are taking a non-circumnavigating route, Africa would be logically next after Qatar if they are indeed going there after a possible Nepal visit.
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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #436 on: December 15, 2011, 11:07:45 AM »
let al calm down is possiable be mongalia and south africa too mabye it goes up make turn around to africa

Yeah,but  Italy --> Doha --> Kathmandu ---> Delhi ---> Beijing ---> Mongolia  ---> Durban?

I don't see how...
Let's get real here. The probability of that type of route structure is so close to 0 it is not worth considering. Going to Mongolia is very feasible, but once there teams would fly to the U.S., not backtrack to Durban.

it could work think back season 7
Let's get real here. The probability of that type of route structure is so close to 0 it is not worth considering. Going to Mongolia is very feasible, but once there teams would fly to the U.S., not backtrack to Durban.

For those who remember it, AR7 went east as far as Lucknow and Alleppey in India before turning back westward. Mongolia (let's say Ulaanbataar just for reference purposes) is another roughly 2500 miles. At that point a race is clearly continuing eastward across the Pacific Ocean.

If Durban was right and Beijing and Mongolia are not, then AR20 would be headed generally northwest to reach the U.S. more than 8000 miles away.

Alleppey was season 4, Jodphur was season 7.

For those who this might be the sequester house there is two things going against that:

1) Usually the sequester house is in a warm climate (Ulanbataar is the coldest capital city in the world)
2) Its so late in the race teams eliminated would likely be either decoys or head to the final destination city directly.
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Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #437 on: December 15, 2011, 11:23:24 AM »
let al calm down is possiable be mongalia and south africa too mabye it goes up make turn around to africa

Yeah,but  Italy --> Doha --> Kathmandu ---> Delhi ---> Beijing ---> Mongolia  ---> Durban?

I don't see how...
Let's get real here. The probability of that type of route structure is so close to 0 it is not worth considering. Going to Mongolia is very feasible, but once there teams would fly to the U.S., not backtrack to Durban.

it could work think back season 7
Let's get real here. The probability of that type of route structure is so close to 0 it is not worth considering. Going to Mongolia is very feasible, but once there teams would fly to the U.S., not backtrack to Durban.

For those who remember it, AR7 went east as far as Lucknow and Alleppey in India before turning back westward. Mongolia (let's say Ulaanbataar just for reference purposes) is another roughly 2500 miles. At that point a race is clearly continuing eastward across the Pacific Ocean.

If Durban was right and Beijing and Mongolia are not, then AR20 would be headed generally northwest to reach the U.S. more than 8000 miles away.

Alleppey was season 4, Jodphur was season 7.

For those who this might be the sequester house there is two things going against that:

1) Usually the sequester house is in a warm climate (Ulanbataar is the coldest capital city in the world)
2) Its so late in the race teams eliminated would likely be either decoys or head to the final destination city directly.

I was kidding about the sequester site being in Mongolia. It makes no sense to send teams from Argentina to Ulanbataar. Generally, it's somewhere warm and central to the first part of the race. In this case, Central or South America seem likely.

I agree that any teams eliminated now would likely be headed for decoy duty.

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #438 on: December 15, 2011, 12:50:26 PM »
Hang on guys...there are a lot of assumptions being made here.

We have one tweeter who saw teams arr Doha from Katmandu. ONE tweet>>needs supporting documentation but reasonable.

One tweeter saying saw B/R....on flight to Beijing. Hmmm. This also needs supporting documention. Mongolia seems a red herring.

South Africa who knows? Can't be in So Africa/Beijing/Mongolia at same time, :lol: This could be local?

Remember that ALL tweets are viewed with suspicion until confirmed.... there are people trying to confuse/mislead us.
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Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #439 on: December 15, 2011, 01:38:09 PM »
The real trouble with Beijing is that there was not enough time from arrival in Qatar to have a leg there then leave for China. And there is absolutely no sense in using Doha as a connection to get from Katmandu to Beijing.

But this person claims to be a BB superfan and to have gotten their autographs so it's hard to discredit the sighting. Maybe Brenchel was being rerouted back to the States because they were eliminated in Nepal?

NVM that^ she claimed to be traveling from Doha to Beijing (which seems to confirm the other sighting there) and that there were "cameramen in black" with them. I don't know...

« Last Edit: December 15, 2011, 01:44:47 PM by Prophet »
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Offline ZouLy

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #440 on: December 15, 2011, 02:19:34 PM »
Didn't want to make you ocnfuse guys, but here's another tweet saying that the teams are now in DURBAN, South Africa!


@tamlyncanham Tamlyn Canham
OMG The Amazing Race was filming in the Durban CBD!! I so need to enter that show! Nolo's BF "I saw foreigners running with back packs" LOL
6 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply


How could this be?? @_@?? Asia or Africa??


Just Got her Replies here guys :

RT tamlyncanham: yes, they were looking 4 clues at the museum

and to one of our detective too:
RT @tamlyncanham @ovalorange1 they were looking 4 clues at the museum,
spotted running near the ICC. It's not an SA version, just 1 of the stops.


Really hoped for the pictures, she said she's gonna ask one of her friends who also spotted teams to send it to her..
fingers crossed if this is true Durban, SA..


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Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #441 on: December 15, 2011, 02:40:37 PM »
The real trouble with Beijing is that there was not enough time from arrival in Qatar to have a leg there then leave for China. And there is absolutely no sense in using Doha as a connection to get from Katmandu to Beijing.

But this person claims to be a BB superfan and to have gotten their autographs so it's hard to discredit the sighting. Maybe Brenchel was being rerouted back to the States because they were eliminated in Nepal?

NVM that^ she claimed to be traveling from Doha to Beijing (which seems to confirm the other sighting there) and that there were "cameramen in black" with them. I don't know...

Claiming that she got an autograph is just that, a claim, and not anything that adds more credibility to the witness. She also claimed that the Qatari stewardesses were wearing face coverings. I googled up pictures of Qatar Airline stewardesses and none of them were wearing face coverings. A few had scarves wrapped around their necks but none had their faces covered. I remain skeptical of this sighting.

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #442 on: December 15, 2011, 02:54:27 PM »
Maybe teams went from Europe to Nepal to Qatar and now South Africa. Probably leg 11 occurs in Latin America (like the last two editions have) and then final leg in the USA.
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Offline Mug Costanza

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #443 on: December 15, 2011, 03:15:16 PM »
Maybe teams went from Europe to Nepal to Qatar and now South Africa. Probably leg 11 occurs in Latin America (like the last two editions have) and then final leg in the USA.

I don't really agree with that one... they did their first 2, maybe 3 legs in Latin America. I don't think they'd go back there again at the end of the race.

This one's a long shot, but if South Africa is true, what are the odds of them possibly going from South Africa to New Zealand? I honestly can't see them doing another "great circle" route like TAR7 when they're zig-zagging across the Equator like they've been doing. New Zealand seems like a logical choice. They haven't gone there since TAR13, and Phil has said the best thing the world can do for New Zealand after the Christchurch earthquake is to keep visiting and helping the tourism industry. I know that'd be a long plane from South Africa, but it's better than just making a figure-8 across Eurasia and calling it a race.  :cmas5

Offline ZouLy

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #444 on: December 15, 2011, 03:53:14 PM »
I know we still speculating with the Durban Girl, but hey guys...

maybe we can consider this as a choice... What an HD looking City and Landscape...


Durban's Coastline








1. Durban Museum(s): There are several, but one of them could be good for shooting, Natural Science Museum and Court House Museum


RT tamlyncanham: yes, they were looking 4 clues at the museum











2. Durban's ICC (International Conference Centre) as what it said on the sighting:


RT @tamlyncanham @ovalorange1 they were looking 4 clues at the museum,
spotted running near the ICC. It's not an SA version, just 1 of the stops.











3. Another possible shooting location (HD Quality)


Durban South Beach Attractions







Possible Clue placement :

Dick King Statue




City in Distance between places :




How'd you think??
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Offline ZouLy

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #445 on: December 15, 2011, 04:00:50 PM »
Other great view of the city




Love to watch some water challenges here...
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Offline ZouLy

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #446 on: December 15, 2011, 05:38:56 PM »
...and it's officially announced the Premiere of TAR Season 20 will be aired on 19 February 2012... (InsdieTV, Dec.15 6.30PM)
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Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #447 on: December 15, 2011, 07:07:34 PM »
Good work Zouly! Did she happen to have any team descriptions?
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Offline dryedmangoez

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #448 on: December 15, 2011, 08:46:24 PM »
Maybe teams went from Europe to Nepal to Qatar and now South Africa. Probably leg 11 occurs in Latin America (like the last two editions have) and then final leg in the USA.
OMG, is Nepal confirmed!? One of my Wish List destinations!

Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: TAR 20 Speculation and Discussion **of Spoilers**
« Reply #449 on: December 15, 2011, 09:17:27 PM »
Maybe teams went from Europe to Nepal to Qatar and now South Africa. Probably leg 11 occurs in Latin America (like the last two editions have) and then final leg in the USA.
OMG, is Nepal confirmed!? One of my Wish List destinations!

Nepal is not confirmed. We just have one person on Twitter who claimed she saw a team or teams arriving in Qatar on a flight from Kathmandu.


 

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