Author Topic: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?  (Read 18886 times)

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Offline Jobby

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #125 on: November 16, 2010, 07:36:14 PM »
Instead of reiterating the same things over and over again, how about we go back to a previous question I asked that no one tried to answer:
Why are Jill and Thomas so good at racing while they are so annoying as people?

Well, Thomas is pretty strong and they seem to be pretty fast.  They also quickly switch Detour tasks if there's a problem with the one they chose rather than trying over and over and over.  Also, they have quite a bit of drive.  That helps -- and will help them make the finals.  But hopefully, it won't help them win.

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That's everyone's persepctive on them: they hope they don't win. However, I know they will not win. Why? Because they are not mental enough. Actually, no team remaining has truly proved themselvs mentally. The most mental tasks (accordion playing in Russia, word search in Ghana) were both Detour tasks and not many teams completed those. The two FF teams appear to be more mental than J\T, that's why they will not win.

Freddy and Kendra did. So did Flo and Zach, Eric and Danielle, Tammy and Victor (remember Leg 3 TAR 14?) and Dan and Jordan, winners whom all showed before how they are not that mentally strong after all. Maybe minus Tammy and Victor, as it was smooth sailing for them since Leg 3 after that. But the other winning teams? Definitely.

I have to agree with anyone who say everyone who made it to the final 3 deserves to win, but the final leg usually requires both luck and skills, and you probably gotta bring a voodoo doll along and pray that while you falter at your final leg tasks, the other teams go down with you. (Meghan and Cheyne at one point was last to arrive at Casino due to bad cabbie, then finished the Counting task FIRST cause the other two teams sucked at it). :lol:

There, any team can win. :lol:

What is your proof that these mentioned teams were not mentally strong? (Besides Eric and Danielle, everybody agrees with that)

Just like how you have your opinion, i have my own opinion as well. I think that Jill and Thomas are mentally strong enough, although they falter at times, they have shown that against other competition, they can really outshine and rise to the occasion.

They are just alike any other teams, the teams i mentioned had their bad and good moments. Remember how Dan and Jordan freaked out in China? Remember how Flo freaked out on the leg they were given a NEL? Remember the many Danielle meltdowns? Remember how Freddy freaked out?

All i'm saying here is, it just take ONE GOOD FINAL LEG to win TAR. Sure, it takes 10-12 legs to reach the finale, but once you're in the final 3.. anyone can win. All you need is luck and for everything to go together.
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Offline Prophet

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #126 on: November 16, 2010, 07:43:45 PM »
Quote
Just like how you have your opinion, i have my own opinion as well. I think that Jill and Thomas are mentally strong enough, although they falter at times, they have shown that against other competition, they can really outshine and rise to the occasion.

They are just alike any other teams, the teams i mentioned had their bad and good moments. Remember how Dan and Jordan freaked out in China? Remember how Flo freaked out on the leg they were given a NEL? Remember the many Danielle meltdowns? Remember how Freddy freaked out?

All i'm saying here is, it just take ONE GOOD FINAL LEG to win TAR. Sure, it takes 10-12 legs to reach the finale, but once you're in the final 3.. anyone can win. All you need is luck and for everything to go together.

I agree with a lot of that, all you have to do in the first legs is stay alive and you have a chance to win. I also agree that every team makes plenty of mistakes (except Meghan and Cheyne  :lol:)

Dan and Jordan are a great example that you only have to have a good final to win. They had only won one leg and that was because of a FF.

Most seem to discount J/T because they do not like them, but they have a chance to win. They have two "real wins" already and another had they not paid a taxi. No one else has two real wins. (N/K fast forwarded)
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Offline Prophet

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #127 on: November 16, 2010, 07:46:14 PM »
It was widely discussed in post race interviews at the time...pretty conclusively.

That sounds like a fishy win for E/D to me.  :crazy: That is why they haven't tried a task like that again for the final.
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #128 on: November 16, 2010, 08:12:08 PM »

I agree with a lot of that, all you have to do in the first legs is stay alive and you have a chance to win. I also agree that every team makes plenty of mistakes (except Meghan and Cheyne  :lol:)

Dan and Jordan are a great example that you only have to have a good final to win. They had only won one leg and that was because of a FF.

Most seem to discount J/T because they do not like them, but they have a chance to win. They have two "real wins" already and another had they not paid a taxi. No one else has two real wins. (N/K fast forwarded)

Megan and Cheyne made mistakes, even on the final leg. They went to the wrong casino and finally arrived at the chip counting task in 3rd. They had a better system for counting. Finished it in 1st and won.

Nat and Kat have 3 leg wins. One of which was the FF, Leg 4, Leg 5 (FF) and Leg 7.
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Offline Jobby

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #129 on: November 16, 2010, 08:14:56 PM »
That's everyone's persepctive on them: they hope they don't win. However, I know they will not win. Why? Because they are not mental enough. Actually, no team remaining has truly proved themselvs mentally. The most mental tasks (accordion playing in Russia, word search in Ghana) were both Detour tasks and not many teams completed those. The two FF teams appear to be more mental than J\T, that's why they will not win.

I agree with a lot of that, all you have to do in the first legs is stay alive and you have a chance to win. I also agree that every team makes plenty of mistakes (except Meghan and Cheyne  :lol:)

Dan and Jordan are a great example that you only have to have a good final to win. They had only won one leg and that was because of a FF.

Most seem to discount J/T because they do not like them, but they have a chance to win. They have two "real wins" already and another had they not paid a taxi. No one else has two real wins. (N/K fast forwarded)

 :duno:
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Offline Jobby

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #130 on: November 16, 2010, 08:15:54 PM »

I agree with a lot of that, all you have to do in the first legs is stay alive and you have a chance to win. I also agree that every team makes plenty of mistakes (except Meghan and Cheyne  :lol:)

Dan and Jordan are a great example that you only have to have a good final to win. They had only won one leg and that was because of a FF.

Most seem to discount J/T because they do not like them, but they have a chance to win. They have two "real wins" already and another had they not paid a taxi. No one else has two real wins. (N/K fast forwarded)

Megan and Cheyne made mistakes, even on the final leg. They went to the wrong casino and finally arrived at the chip counting task in 3rd. They had a better system for counting. Finished it in 1st and won.

Nat and Kat have 3 leg wins. One of which was the FF, Leg 4, Leg 5 (FF) and Leg 7.

Thanks for helping me type all that out! :tup: That was what i was going to say too. :lol:
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Offline Belle Book

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #131 on: November 16, 2010, 08:17:02 PM »

I agree with a lot of that, all you have to do in the first legs is stay alive and you have a chance to win. I also agree that every team makes plenty of mistakes (except Meghan and Cheyne  :lol:)

Dan and Jordan are a great example that you only have to have a good final to win. They had only won one leg and that was because of a FF.

Most seem to discount J/T because they do not like them, but they have a chance to win. They have two "real wins" already and another had they not paid a taxi. No one else has two real wins. (N/K fast forwarded)

Megan and Cheyne made mistakes, even on the final leg. They went to the wrong casino and finally arrived at the chip counting task in 3rd. They had a better system for counting. Finished it in 1st and won.

Nat and Kat have 3 leg wins. One of which was the FF, Leg 4, Leg 5 (FF) and Leg 7.

Yeah -- Jill & Thomas and Nat & Kat each have two "real wins".  Brook & Claire have only 1.

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Offline Jobby

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #132 on: November 16, 2010, 08:18:17 PM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:
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Offline DrRox

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #133 on: November 16, 2010, 08:29:31 PM »
You just know that Nat and Kat are taking very detailed notes too.
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #134 on: November 16, 2010, 08:33:43 PM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:

Very true!
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Offline Nettez

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #135 on: November 16, 2010, 08:38:07 PM »
I sure HOPE N/K win, but I think it's really anyone's game. It takes more skill than luck to get into the final 3 (most of the time...) but most teams end up on a level playing field at the start of the final leg which makes it really hard to predict who wins. That being said, I think N/K have been doing pretty well so far, although their positions appear to be either right at the top or right at the bottom (except for the 4th placing in Russia). On the other hand, Brook and Claire have been doing consistently well, so I'm really hoping that one of them wins it all!

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #136 on: November 16, 2010, 09:07:46 PM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:

Well, that is true, but we know that average is going to take a hit in the Bangladesh episode. At least comapred to J/T and N/K.
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #137 on: November 17, 2010, 08:00:01 AM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:

Well, that is true, but we know that average is going to take a hit in the Bangladesh episode. At least comapred to J/T and N/K.

Poor Brooke and Claire.

But you never know. The Lyns were Yielded and still come in second. :tup:
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #138 on: November 17, 2010, 08:10:51 AM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:

Well, that is true, but we know that average is going to take a hit in the Bangladesh episode. At least comapred to J/T and N/K.

But do averages really matter? In last season's final Jet and Cord averaged 2.5, Dan and Jordan averaged 3.5 and Brent and Caite averaged 4.3. Through week six (halfway) D/J were averaging 6.1.

But some winners have good averages, Tammy and Victor only finished outside the top 3 once and Meghan and Cheyne only finished outside the top two twice. It is not a qualifying statistic.
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #139 on: November 17, 2010, 08:17:01 AM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:

Well, that is true, but we know that average is going to take a hit in the Bangladesh episode. At least comapred to J/T and N/K.

But do averages really matter? In last season's final Jet and Cord averaged 2.5, Dan and Jordan averaged 3.5 and Brent and Caite averaged 4.3. Through week six (halfway) D/J were averaging 6.1.

But some winners have good averages, Tammy and Victor only finished outside the top 3 once and Meghan and Cheyne only finished outside the top two twice. It is not a qualifying statistic.

Ask Eric and Jeremy about averages and what they mean. I'm sure they'll have lots to say about it.

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #140 on: November 17, 2010, 08:17:39 AM »
Poor Brooke and Claire.

But you never know. The Lyns were Yielded and still come in second. :tup:

The Yield cannot be compared to the U-turn. The U-turn is 100% lethal while the Yield rarely eliminated the yielded team.

It was usually worse for the Yielder. Remember when Bj and Tyler yielded Mojo and finished last. Or in the leg you mentioned D/K finished in last after yielding "the lyns". Or when Oswald and Danny yielded Eric and Danielle and finished in last. Or when Adam & Rebecca yielded Freddy and Kendra and finished after them. Maybe Charla and Mirna were right about "yield karma."
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #141 on: November 17, 2010, 08:19:18 AM »
But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:

Well, that is true, but we know that average is going to take a hit in the Bangladesh episode. At least comapred to J/T and N/K.

But do averages really matter? In last season's final Jet and Cord averaged 2.5, Dan and Jordan averaged 3.5 and Brent and Caite averaged 4.3. Through week six (halfway) D/J were averaging 6.1.

But some winners have good averages, Tammy and Victor only finished outside the top 3 once and Meghan and Cheyne only finished outside the top two twice. It is not a qualifying statistic.

Ask Eric and Jeremy about averages and what they mean. I'm sure they'll have lots to say about it.

Oh yeah, I should have included them! They only finished out of the top two once BJ and Tyler were NEL twice!
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #142 on: November 17, 2010, 08:37:05 AM »
Poor Brooke and Claire.

But you never know. The Lyns were Yielded and still come in second. :tup:

The Yield cannot be compared to the U-turn. The U-turn is 100% lethal while the Yield rarely eliminated the yielded team.

It was usually worse for the Yielder. Remember when Bj and Tyler yielded Mojo and finished last. Or in the leg you mentioned D/K finished in last after yielding "the lyns". Or when Oswald and Danny yielded Eric and Danielle and finished in last. Or when Adam & Rebecca yielded Freddy and Kendra and finished after them. Maybe Charla and Mirna were right about "yield karma."

The so-called "Lethality" of the U-Turn is an exaggeration, let us examine.

S12- 2 U-Turns. Lorena and Jason (Who started a significant way behind) get U-Turned by a paranoid Shana and Jennifer. Lorena and Jason had not seen another team all day, so they were staring down the barrel of elimination anyway. The 2nd U-Turn (Kynt & Vyxsin -> Nick & Don) was wasted.

S13- No U-Turns used.

S14- 2 U-Turns played. Margie and Luke hit Amanda and Kris with a Blind U-Turn, and Amanda and Kris are unable to complete the 2nd Detour quickly enough to remain competitive in the leg. In the other Kisha and Jen complete their U-Turn in 3rd (of 4) and remain ahead of Jamie and Cara until a bad taxi and a million dollar pee break cause their demise. While the U-Turn certainly assisted in the comeback of the redheads, it cannot be held entirely responsible for it.

S15- Lance and Keri play a Blind U-Turn on Sam and Dan, who were ahead of them at the time. The U-Turn goes unaired.

S16- Joe and Heidi get U-Turned by Mike and Louie. Joe spends some time being bitter about it, then they go try the now-infamous morse code task, which they cannot complete. I believe had they been able to, they may have been spared. (I also believe that it is excellent strategy to force a team to complete a task that by all accounts was nearly impossible.)
Carol and Brandy get U-Turned by Brent and Caite. They spend even more time being bitter about it than Bitters McBitterson when he heard that Fosters group had come up with Victoria Bitter. They also finish last, well behind.

Season 17 has a double U-Turn. What exactly comes of it remains to be seen.

The current numbers have the U-Turn actually forcing a team into last place at (currently) 60% (3/5), while the Yield sits at  30% (4/12). Due to the significantly smaller sample size for the U-Turn to draw from, such fluctuations are to be expected. I think the U-Turn is no more deadly than the Yield.

Also noteworthy- A team that was on the receiving end of the Yield has only been eliminated ONCE (Danielle and Dani) For some reason, CBS loved pairing them up with NEL's

Offline Jobby

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #143 on: November 17, 2010, 08:49:01 AM »
I can only think of Joe and Heidi, Amanda and Kris, Carol and Brandy and Kisha and Jen who has been greatly affected by the U-TURN. Of which, only Joe and Heidi's elimination can be credited mostly due to the U-TURN. Other than that, the other three teams were almost in the back of the pack and the fact that they didn't reach the U-TURN fast enough.. and try to catch up some time while doing their U-TURN resulted in their elimination. Of course without the U-TURN, they might have stayed on.. but you really never know. Especially with Kisha and Jen, even after the U-TURN they were in front of Cara and Jaime.. so what ultimately resulted in their elimination was bad cab + pee break.

Given Brooke and Claire's ability, i think they will nail the U-TURN next week.
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Offline Prophet

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #144 on: November 17, 2010, 09:10:20 AM »
The so-called "Lethality" of the U-Turn is an exaggeration, let us examine.

S12- 2 U-Turns. Lorena and Jason (Who started a significant way behind) get U-Turned by a paranoid Shana and Jennifer. Lorena and Jason had not seen another team all day, so they were staring down the barrel of elimination anyway. The 2nd U-Turn (Kynt & Vyxsin -> Nick & Don) was wasted.

S13- No U-Turns used.

S14- 2 U-Turns played. Margie and Luke hit Amanda and Kris with a Blind U-Turn, and Amanda and Kris are unable to complete the 2nd Detour quickly enough to remain competitive in the leg. In the other Kisha and Jen complete their U-Turn in 3rd (of 4) and remain ahead of Jamie and Cara until a bad taxi and a million dollar pee break cause their demise. While the U-Turn certainly assisted in the comeback of the redheads, it cannot be held entirely responsible for it.

S15- Lance and Keri play a Blind U-Turn on Sam and Dan, who were ahead of them at the time. The U-Turn goes unaired.

S16- Joe and Heidi get U-Turned by Mike and Louie. Joe spends some time being bitter about it, then they go try the now-infamous morse code task, which they cannot complete. I believe had they been able to, they may have been spared. (I also believe that it is excellent strategy to force a team to complete a task that by all accounts was nearly impossible.)
Carol and Brandy get U-Turned by Brent and Caite. They spend even more time being bitter about it than Bitters McBitterson when he heard that Fosters group had come up with Victoria Bitter. They also finish last, well behind.

Season 17 has a double U-Turn. What exactly comes of it remains to be seen.

The current numbers have the U-Turn actually forcing a team into last place at (currently) 60% (3/5), while the Yield sits at  30% (4/12). Due to the significantly smaller sample size for the U-Turn to draw from, such fluctuations are to be expected. I think the U-Turn is no more deadly than the Yield.

Also noteworthy- A team that was on the receiving end of the Yield has only been eliminated ONCE (Danielle and Dani) For some reason, CBS loved pairing them up with NEL's

My point was that no team has ever survived in a leg in which they were U-turned. Therefore, no matter the exact circumstances, the simple fact is that U-turn=elimination. This fact is what has prompted the double U-turn, because they want it to be a race between two unfortunates.

Besides the fact that Yields were usually with NEL's the yielded team rarely finished in last and as I showed, many times the yielder was NEL. Strange...
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #145 on: November 17, 2010, 09:20:14 AM »
The so-called "Lethality" of the U-Turn is an exaggeration, let us examine.

S12- 2 U-Turns. Lorena and Jason (Who started a significant way behind) get U-Turned by a paranoid Shana and Jennifer. Lorena and Jason had not seen another team all day, so they were staring down the barrel of elimination anyway. The 2nd U-Turn (Kynt & Vyxsin -> Nick & Don) was wasted.

S13- No U-Turns used.

S14- 2 U-Turns played. Margie and Luke hit Amanda and Kris with a Blind U-Turn, and Amanda and Kris are unable to complete the 2nd Detour quickly enough to remain competitive in the leg. In the other Kisha and Jen complete their U-Turn in 3rd (of 4) and remain ahead of Jamie and Cara until a bad taxi and a million dollar pee break cause their demise. While the U-Turn certainly assisted in the comeback of the redheads, it cannot be held entirely responsible for it.

S15- Lance and Keri play a Blind U-Turn on Sam and Dan, who were ahead of them at the time. The U-Turn goes unaired.

S16- Joe and Heidi get U-Turned by Mike and Louie. Joe spends some time being bitter about it, then they go try the now-infamous morse code task, which they cannot complete. I believe had they been able to, they may have been spared. (I also believe that it is excellent strategy to force a team to complete a task that by all accounts was nearly impossible.)
Carol and Brandy get U-Turned by Brent and Caite. They spend even more time being bitter about it than Bitters McBitterson when he heard that Fosters group had come up with Victoria Bitter. They also finish last, well behind.

Season 17 has a double U-Turn. What exactly comes of it remains to be seen.

The current numbers have the U-Turn actually forcing a team into last place at (currently) 60% (3/5), while the Yield sits at  30% (4/12). Due to the significantly smaller sample size for the U-Turn to draw from, such fluctuations are to be expected. I think the U-Turn is no more deadly than the Yield.

Also noteworthy- A team that was on the receiving end of the Yield has only been eliminated ONCE (Danielle and Dani) For some reason, CBS loved pairing them up with NEL's

My point was that no team has ever survived in a leg in which they were U-turned. Therefore, no matter the exact circumstances, the simple fact is that U-turn=elimination. This fact is what has prompted the double U-turn, because they want it to be a race between two unfortunates.

Besides the fact that Yields were usually with NEL's the yielded team rarely finished in last and as I showed, many times the yielder was NEL. Strange...

Correlation =/= Causation.

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #146 on: November 17, 2010, 09:25:16 AM »
BTW, how did this topic turn into "Is the U-Turn Effective or Not?". We're supposed to be talking about who will win TAR 17.
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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #147 on: November 17, 2010, 09:32:25 AM »
Actually with a good placement of a U-TURN, it doesn't really spell elimination necessarily. Leg 3 of TAR 17 could have been a good leg to put a U-TURN, but i don't know why there isn't since both Detours are relatively close to each other.

The example of a bad U-TURN placed, would definitely be the one Carol and Brandy had to go through in Singapore. Travelling to the U-TURN location, then going to the other U-TURN location, then travelling back to the U-TURN location again is simply a waste of time.

Speakers Corner -> Istana Park = 10 mins by cab
Istana Park -> Bencoolen Bugis = 10 mins by cab
TIME SPENT TO DO DETOUR = 20 - 30 minutes
Bencoolen (Detour 2) back to Istana Park = 10 mins by cab

Not to forget about the time they took to get cabs (not sure if i remember they kept the same cab throughout the entire leg), that U-TURN easily caused Carol and Brandy another 45 mins to 1 hour, which in terms of race seriously means ELIMINATION. So i get what you're trying to mean by U-TURN = Elimination.. but what Coutzy's trying to mean is that you can't just say that once a team has been U-TURN, the team will be automatically eliminated.

If Joe and Heidi got the other Detour, they will still continue to survive. If Kisha and Jen didn't go for a pee break, they would have survived too. But this would be external factors that producers could not have possibly factor in when it comes to a good planning for a U-TURN. They can't make it too simple and easy for both Detour tasks either if not the viewers will think it's lame as well.

The U-TURN, although some of us do not like it.. is undeniably a good element of the show. With proper placement and good tasks, a team might not necessarily be eliminated after being U-TURN.
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Offline Jobby

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #148 on: November 17, 2010, 09:34:05 AM »
BTW, how did this topic turn into "Is the U-Turn Effective or Not?". We're supposed to be talking about who will win TAR 17.

Let me link it back then.

Any team who has been U-TURN might be eliminated. And once a team has been eliminated, the team will NOT win TAR 17.

And if Brooke and Claire managed to survive the U-TURN next week and still do really well, let's say even winning the leg or come in second, then you can say that they have a good chance of winning TAR 17 because they're a strong team.

:)
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Offline Prophet

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Re: Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
« Reply #149 on: November 17, 2010, 09:37:35 AM »
BTW, how did this topic turn into "Is the U-Turn Effective or Not?". We're supposed to be talking about who will win TAR 17.

Let me link it back then.

Any team who has been U-TURN might be eliminated. And once a team has been eliminated, the team will NOT win TAR 17.

And if Brooke and Claire managed to survive the U-TURN next week and still do really well, let's say even winning the leg or come in second, then you can say that they have a good chance of winning TAR 17 because they're a strong team.

:)

That makes a lot of sense! This is the point I tried to convey when I first created this topic! :jumpy:
« Last Edit: November 18, 2010, 07:12:17 PM by the-pr0phet »
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