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Author Topic: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."  (Read 90059 times)

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Offline Belle Book

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #425 on: December 10, 2010, 08:17:11 AM »
After Phil's interview I Think That Nat and Kat have good possibility to win....

Photo 1
They are very happy because they are first at  roadblock??? :cmas30:,first at bungee ,first at  Rose Bowl task  

And thereís a few dramatic turns and twists and youíll be doing a lot of second-guessing

but they have  some problems to find the finish line...
Photo 2
They are really nervous ...They have backpacks on their knees ,so probably they get off  taxi,but the location isn't correct, ..so return on taxi and search for the real finish line .but ...they waste time
At the end of the day, the most deserving team wins and thatís the most important thing."....
So ..at the end,despite everything they win...

You might have it there, Milanissimo.  They leave the final task with a huge lead and think the race is theirs.  But then, their taxi cab driver takes them to the wrong location!  They have to find the finish line, and maybe that's when Nat calls someone and says, "Hi.  I'msorry.  I'm in a Race."  And maybe that's what the confessional we saw with her & Kat was about -- their problems with the taxi driver!  However, they still beat Brook & Claire and Jill & Thomas.

Belle Book


Offline Flamant

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #426 on: December 10, 2010, 08:44:03 AM »
My 2 cents:
Almost everybody thinks that, because Brook & Claire is featured (a lot) in the second promo, this meens that they will not win.
For me, I think that the editors may have done the opposite. They featured B/C a lot so that the spoilers think that they may have not won, but they would actually win.

And I think that if they win, it would go perfectly with
Quote
And thereís a few dramatic turns and twists and youíll be doing a lot of second-guessing. You think youíll have it all worked out and then it will turn another way.
because they are last at the bungy jump, then arrive second at the memory task (because J/T get lost) then (speculation) arrive first on the mat (because N/K get lost).

On the other side, if Nat/Kat arrive first on the mat, this would meen that they need to be second or third sometime in the leg.

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Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #427 on: December 10, 2010, 08:51:02 AM »
It looks like everybody has engaged in a lot of healthy discussion about this upcoming final! Interesting theories have been brought up, and thankfully, the discussion has been kept very civil!

:ty3: to everyone who has participated and :welcome: to all newbies who are joining in the discussion! We hope you stick around for more seasons!

I myself am very happy to have been a part of this discussion of TAR17 and look forward to continuing to go over 18.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 08:54:43 AM by the-pr0phet »
Physics alone is not enough.

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Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #428 on: December 10, 2010, 08:52:12 AM »
One thing I have learned in my time watching the Race is that one should not over-analyze data. I know that I myself tend to do so, but I know from personal experience that it can lead to disappointment!
Physics alone is not enough.

Those who forget history are sure to repeat it.

Offline sofiaj.10

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #429 on: December 10, 2010, 09:01:26 AM »
IMO people analyze the promos depending one which team they want to see win:
-NAT AND KAT FANS: say they were first on the bungee so probably first on the memory task and since they are doctors they will finish the task fast and have a happy ride and WIN

-BROOK AND CLAIRE FANS: think that they are in the bungee first but get to the memory task, finish second, but the first place gets lost so they arrive FIRST

-JILL AND THOMAS FANS(not many but still some): think they get out of the bungee second, arrive at the memory task and leave before B/C even get there (the empty ipad station even though we no longer think they need to pick them up) ask for direction fast and WIN

PERSONALLY I WANT A F/F TEAM TO WIN  :xmas146


Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #430 on: December 10, 2010, 09:05:07 AM »
IMO people analyze the promos depending one which team they want to see win

You hit the nail right on the head!
« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 09:08:27 AM by the-pr0phet »
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Offline FLFan

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #431 on: December 10, 2010, 09:40:24 AM »
After Phil's interview I Think That Nat and Kat have good possibility to win....

Photo 1
They are very happy because they are first at  roadblock??? :cmas30:,first at bungee ,first at  Rose Bowl task  

And thereís a few dramatic turns and twists and youíll be doing a lot of second-guessing

but they have  some problems to find the finish line...
Photo 2
They are really nervous ...They have backpacks on their knees ,so probably they get off  taxi,but the location isn't correct, ..so return on taxi and search for the real finish line .but ...they waste time
At the end of the day, the most deserving team wins and thatís the most important thing."....
So ..at the end,despite everything they win...

You might have it there, Milanissimo.  They leave the final task with a huge lead and think the race is theirs.  But then, their taxi cab driver takes them to the wrong location!  They have to find the finish line, and maybe that's when Nat calls someone and says, "Hi.  I'msorry.  I'm in a Race."  And maybe that's what the confessional we saw with her & Kat was about -- their problems with the taxi driver!  However, they still beat Brook & Claire and Jill & Thomas.

Belle Book


That actually makes some sense and possibly(?) clears up a detail that I noticed earlier.  This references the promo shown during Survivor on Wednesday.  When they are showing N/K and J/T racing toward what appears to be the entrance area to the finish line (Greystone Mansion), they are passing a circular, covered drop-off and pickup area (similar to what you would find outside a hotel).  The shots they use for both N/K and J/T are from the same general angle.  Comparing the two views, there are differences in the # of people, # cars and positions of MOST people in that drop-off area.  HOWEVER, in both shots the same gentleman is seated reading a book.  Now, if N/K had such a commanding lead, why is the gentleman in both shots?  Yes, I understand sitting in the same area for an extended area of time just reading, I have done it on many occasions - just usually not outside during mid-summer unless in the shade in shorts.  N/K having trouble with their taxi cab driver and losing time trying to find the finish line could explain this.

The only speculation I could make between the 2 shots, is that in the N/K view (if I remember right), there are 3 cars in the drop off area.  The third car seems to possibly be a black town-car.  In the J/T shot, there is only one car, possibly the same black town-car?, with what maybe a chauffeur standing near itís front.  This, as someone mentioned, may be colored by the fact that I favor N/K.

In the B/C shot, they donít use exactly the same angle so the drop-off area is not shown.

Note: the racers aren't using this drop-off area, so taxi's may have their own.

Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #432 on: December 10, 2010, 10:05:40 AM »
That actually makes some sense and possibly(?) clears up a detail that I noticed earlier.  This references the promo shown during Survivor on Wednesday.  When they are showing N/K and J/T racing toward what appears to be the entrance area to the finish line (Greystone Mansion), they are passing a circular, covered drop-off and pickup area (similar to what you would find outside a hotel).  The shots they use for both N/K and J/T are from the same general angle.  Comparing the two views, there are differences in the # of people, # cars and positions of MOST people in that drop-off area.  HOWEVER, in both shots the same gentleman is seated reading a book.  Now, if N/K had such a commanding lead, why is the gentleman in both shots?  Yes, I understand sitting in the same area for an extended area of time just reading, I have done it on many occasions - just usually not outside during mid-summer unless in the shade in shorts.  N/K having trouble with their taxi cab driver and losing time trying to find the finish line could explain this.

The only speculation I could make between the 2 shots, is that in the N/K view (if I remember right), there are 3 cars in the drop off area.  The third car seems to possibly be a black town-car.  In the J/T shot, there is only one car, possibly the same black town-car?, with what maybe a chauffeur standing near itís front.  This, as someone mentioned, may be colored by the fact that I favor N/K.

In the B/C shot, they donít use exactly the same angle so the drop-off area is not shown.

Note: the racers aren't using this drop-off area, so taxi's may have their own.

Can you share this promo with us?
« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 10:08:42 AM by the-pr0phet »
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Offline FLFan

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #433 on: December 10, 2010, 10:32:55 AM »
That actually makes some sense and possibly(?) clears up a detail that I noticed earlier.  This references the promo shown during Survivor on Wednesday.  When they are showing N/K and J/T racing toward what appears to be the entrance area to the finish line (Greystone Mansion), they are passing a circular, covered drop-off and pickup area (similar to what you would find outside a hotel).  The shots they use for both N/K and J/T are from the same general angle.  Comparing the two views, there are differences in the # of people, # cars and positions of MOST people in that drop-off area.  HOWEVER, in both shots the same gentleman is seated reading a book.  Now, if N/K had such a commanding lead, why is the gentleman in both shots?  Yes, I understand sitting in the same area for an extended area of time just reading, I have done it on many occasions - just usually not outside during mid-summer unless in the shade in shorts.  N/K having trouble with their taxi cab driver and losing time trying to find the finish line could explain this.

The only speculation I could make between the 2 shots, is that in the N/K view (if I remember right), there are 3 cars in the drop off area.  The third car seems to possibly be a black town-car.  In the J/T shot, there is only one car, possibly the same black town-car?, with what maybe a chauffeur standing near itís front.  This, as someone mentioned, may be colored by the fact that I favor N/K.

In the B/C shot, they donít use exactly the same angle so the drop-off area is not shown.

Note: the racers aren't using this drop-off area, so taxi's may have their own.

Can you share this promo with us?

Sorry..  I have a nice setup HD TV & HD DVR that allows me to step through the frames.  Unfortunately, I don't have the equipment to dump it and share.  As I mentioned before, this promo is during approximately the first 15 minutes of Wednesday's Survivor.   Hopefully someone still has Survivor on their DVR that has the equipment to allow them share.

Offline Rogue

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #434 on: December 10, 2010, 10:53:21 AM »

3. About the 'dramatic game changing express pass' what if Jill and Thomas missed something that will be in the final memory task, because they skipped the detour. Other than J/T ending up winning (which is unlikely) there's is not much else that the express pass could 'dramatically' change.

Reply back about my specs!! Thanks :)

Good luck B/C and N/K, although I would SLIGHTLY prefer a B/C win  :cmas9

If that's the case, Nat and Kat missed something, a whole leg, using that Fast Forward. Any questions there might be about that leg, except which team was eliminated, could be lost on them.
You don't always win the race by making the best forward moves but you make it by avoiding the huge moves that set you back. -Nat


Offline chill_sd

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #435 on: December 10, 2010, 10:59:02 AM »
I think FLFan is referring to this scene (Photo 11 from Post #322).

This was determined to be in Hong Kong, though, wasn't it? (Turns out it is Seoul.)

« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 12:08:39 PM by chill_sd »

Offline dpe

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #436 on: December 10, 2010, 11:07:35 AM »
That actually makes some sense and possibly(?) clears up a detail that I noticed earlier.  This references the promo shown during Survivor on Wednesday.  When they are showing N/K and J/T racing toward what appears to be the entrance area to the finish line (Greystone Mansion), they are passing a circular, covered drop-off and pickup area (similar to what you would find outside a hotel).  The shots they use for both N/K and J/T are from the same general angle.  Comparing the two views, there are differences in the # of people, # cars and positions of MOST people in that drop-off area.  HOWEVER, in both shots the same gentleman is seated reading a book.  Now, if N/K had such a commanding lead, why is the gentleman in both shots?  Yes, I understand sitting in the same area for an extended area of time just reading, I have done it on many occasions - just usually not outside during mid-summer unless in the shade in shorts.  N/K having trouble with their taxi cab driver and losing time trying to find the finish line could explain this.

The only speculation I could make between the 2 shots, is that in the N/K view (if I remember right), there are 3 cars in the drop off area.  The third car seems to possibly be a black town-car.  In the J/T shot, there is only one car, possibly the same black town-car?, with what maybe a chauffeur standing near itís front.  This, as someone mentioned, may be colored by the fact that I favor N/K.

In the B/C shot, they donít use exactly the same angle so the drop-off area is not shown.

Note: the racers aren't using this drop-off area, so taxi's may have their own.

Can you share this promo with us?



Fixed.  :cmas16 Welcome to RFF dpe!
« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 12:24:54 PM by TexasLady »

Offline chill_sd

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #437 on: December 10, 2010, 11:13:14 AM »
Here it is:

I think the scene in question is the one I copied above.  It's not from LA.


Offline FLFan

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #438 on: December 10, 2010, 11:24:03 AM »
I think FLFan is referring to this scene (Photo 11 from Post #322).

This was determined to be in Hong Kong, though, wasn't it?



Yes, that is one of the scenes.  If it was determined to be in Hong Kong, I must have missed the discussion.  However, you are right, Nat's top is the wrong color.

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #439 on: December 10, 2010, 11:24:59 AM »
Thanks for clearing that up, chill sd! I agree that the placement in the video makes it seem like that could be the finish line. However I also agree that it is not. The clothes are different and I think GP already said that she had matched that scene to Hong Kong sorry I meant Seoul.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 11:55:25 AM by the-pr0phet »
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Offline woden

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #440 on: December 10, 2010, 11:43:50 AM »
Thanks for clearing that up, chill sd! I agree that the placement in the video makes it seem like that could be the finish line. However I also agree that it is not. The clothes are different and I think GP already said that she had matched that scene to Hong Kong.

To Seoul, actually. But either way, it is NOT LA.

Offline Ruth

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #441 on: December 10, 2010, 12:25:49 PM »
I can only say that I'd be extremely pissed if Nat and Kat lose because of their cab-driver getting lost. Because I've wished for that to happen many times (so that my favourite second-place teams could catch up) but it's never happened. So if it happens this season on the team that I WANT to see win... I'm gonna throw something at my TV!

And I've never been this excited for a finale before. I can't wait!!!
TAR 23: Jason and Amy`Nicky and Kim` Nicole and Travis`

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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #442 on: December 10, 2010, 12:28:11 PM »
I think we're all psyching ourselves out way too much.  We should just try and stay as calm as possible as we wait for these last two days before the finale, or we're all going to go nuts before the finale even starts.

THIS. VERY. MUCH.  :cmas23

I am in total agreement with these thoughts. I have been out of the loop for most of the last 3 weeks, but all the speculation on minor points to determine who the winner is strikes me as trying to determine how many angels there are on the head of a pin. Remember this: World Race Productions edits the promos and all information available to the public very carefully and frequently their intent is to misdirect.

I would like to see more solid analysis of some other known factors. One others may have discussed already is how the ROADBLOCK BALANCE RULE affects the last episode of the race. For those not knowledgeable about this, after I think AR5 when Colin, Chip and Brandon did all the ROADBLOCKS except one World Race Productions instituted this rule, which may or may not be in effect for any given season but usually is.  There has been a lot of debate over whether this rule is for equality (except when a Fast Forward is involved) or for a ROADBLOCK outcome where the larger ROADBLOCK doer has no more than 2 versus the lesser ROADBLOCK doer. Here are the current standings after leg 12:

Nat 5, Kat 5
Jill 5, Thomas 6
Claire 5, Brook 6

What that means is that if a 0 or 1 differential rule is in effect then Jill and Claire will have to do the ROADBLOCK in the AR17 finale. That task is typically the one which has been the deciding factor in about half of recent Amazing Races (examples are AR12 - Rachel, AR13 - Starr, AR14 - Victor). I think the edge goes to Nat and Kat because they will for sure have the opportunity to choose the better person on their team for a ROADBLOCK while Jill and Claire may be forced to do it.


« Last Edit: December 10, 2010, 12:34:53 PM by apskip »

Offline Jobby

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #443 on: December 10, 2010, 01:16:53 PM »
apskip, i'm agreeing with you on that. I think the only edge Nat and Kat have that we do know right now is that they will get to decide the better candidate to do the RB should there still be a 6-roadblock rule.

Other than that, any other speculations voice down to how we want to see/worry whether our favourites win/lose.

Offline jayhawk

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #444 on: December 10, 2010, 01:30:30 PM »
Hello -- Joining in to say that I personally do not trust anything Phil says in his interviews about the finale.  Last season he specifically said that the lead would change a few times.  I was somewhat comforted by this and stopped worrying about the sepeculation (which turned out as expected) that the brothers got out of the airport first.  I allowed myself to believe that the cowboys must have overtook them at some point, even if the winner was still in doubt.  So I watched the entire show waiting for a lead change that NEVER CAME.  The brothers got out of the airport first and stayed in front the whole damn time.  Now he's again saying the lead changes.  He may very well be telling the truth but he lost me last season.  I love Phil but I don't pay any attention to what he says.
 :cmas12

Offline SillyCat

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #445 on: December 10, 2010, 01:31:04 PM »
Newbie here...long time reader, just never had anything to say before....

My question is something that has been bugging me since the bridge assender task, when Brook just about pushed Claire over the edge of the bridge and told her in no uncertain term that she would be doing it.
Is Brook also afraid of heights?
 Claire did the rappelling task too, though that time she volunteered.
Then you have Phil article quote:
Quote
"You can be guaranteed that thereís one thing that comes into play in Los Angeles, right?" host and producer Phil Keoghan said in an interview. "Traffic. Iíll just say that. Thereís a challenge that tweaks a few phobias for some of the teams. And thereís a few dramatic turns and twists and youíll be doing a lot of second-guessing. You think youíll have it all worked out and then it will turn another way. At the end of the day, the most deserving team wins and thatís the most important thing."

If one challenge tweaks a few phobias, its going to be the bungee jump one, no doubt. But its like just because Nat was crying on the gondola & expressed her fear of heights (which, btw, I took as she was more fearful of what height type stunt was awaiting them when they reached the top, not the gondola ride itself) all the focus has been on her phobia of heights, but I think Brook might be just as a scared.

Plus look at the caps Peach used in the 1st post, how Brook still has her feet crossed, almost like she is still in a fetal o-poo-is-it-over-yet position and it looks like Claire is holding her hand in support (or to pull her off the bridge with her ;))

Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #446 on: December 10, 2010, 01:34:17 PM »
Welcome to RFF, Sillycat! Glad you've joined in the discussion! Hope you stick around!
I don't know if Brooke is afraid of heights or not. If you watch the most recent promo, you can hear her saying "That's when I just about lost my bananas", referring to the bungee jumping task. However, if she is afraid, I'm sure she'll get over it quickly if she really want to win. The same goes for Nat.
Good observation, BTW!
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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #447 on: December 10, 2010, 01:39:37 PM »
Hello -- Joining in to say that I personally do not trust anything Phil says in his interviews about the finale.  Last season he specifically said that the lead would change a few times.  I was somewhat comforted by this and stopped worrying about the sepeculation (which turned out as expected) that the brothers got out of the airport first.  I allowed myself to believe that the cowboys must have overtook them at some point, even if the winner was still in doubt.  So I watched the entire show waiting for a lead change that NEVER CAME.  The brothers got out of the airport first and stayed in front the whole damn time.  Now he's again saying the lead changes.  He may very well be telling the truth but he lost me last season.  I love Phil but I don't pay any attention to what he says.
 :cmas12

Welcome to RFF, jayhawk!
I don't remember Phil every saying that last year, just that some people would be disappointed by the outcome. He is just trying to market the show though so those interviews are almost the same as the promos we see.
Physics alone is not enough.

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Offline Rogue

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #448 on: December 10, 2010, 02:06:00 PM »
I doubt Phil would have said that. Plus I'm sure at that time, he had no clue how many people would think Dan and Jordan winning would be a major fail.

In this instance I don't know. I'll say that there may be some lead/position changes, possibly coming out of the airport. I don't know if this theory has been shut down but do we know for 100% all teams are on the same flight? Maybe Thomas, Jill, Brook, and Claire get on a flight that is supposed to come in first and Nat and Kat's plane lands first. One of the speculations now is that Thomas and Jill, a team that has never really been lost, except that time they ran in the wrong direction, may get lost along the way. We also have Nat having to go up high and bungee jump and she said she is really afraid of heights. I know he addressed it but still, how long does it take for her to get up there? Will we see Kat dragging her? This can possibly cause teams to catch up to them. Will we see them get ahead and lose it only to gain it back? Why would Brook and Claire assume they're team one or three? They don't even speculate about being second. They may get to a task first and take an awfully long time to finish it leaving them to think either everyone else took a long time and are behind us. Or we just bled time and are trying to play catch up. It's possible Nat and Kat's cab take them to the wrong spot. It's possible for a lot of things. Phil could be telling us anything. lol
You don't always win the race by making the best forward moves but you make it by avoiding the huge moves that set you back. -Nat

Offline Prophet

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Re: TAR 17 EP 12 (FINALE) "Hi. I'm sorry. I'm in a Race."
« Reply #449 on: December 10, 2010, 02:16:25 PM »
I doubt Phil would have said that. Plus I'm sure at that time, he had no clue how many people would think Dan and Jordan winning would be a major fail.

In this instance I don't know. I'll say that there may be some lead/position changes, possibly coming out of the airport. I don't know if this theory has been shut down but do we know for 100% all teams are on the same flight? Maybe Thomas, Jill, Brook, and Claire get on a flight that is supposed to come in first and Nat and Kat's plane lands first. One of the speculations now is that Thomas and Jill, a team that has never really been lost, except that time they ran in the wrong direction, may get lost along the way. We also have Nat having to go up high and bungee jump and she said she is really afraid of heights. I know he addressed it but still, how long does it take for her to get up there? Will we see Kat dragging her? This can possibly cause teams to catch up to them. Will we see them get ahead and lose it only to gain it back? Why would Brook and Claire assume they're team one or three? They don't even speculate about being second. They may get to a task first and take an awfully long time to finish it leaving them to think either everyone else took a long time and are behind us. Or we just bled time and are trying to play catch up. It's possible Nat and Kat's cab take them to the wrong spot. It's possible for a lot of things. Phil could be telling us anything. lol

Phil did say that in an interview with The Early Show. Otherwise, your analysis is spot-on.
Physics alone is not enough.

Those who forget history are sure to repeat it.


 

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