Author Topic: TAR 17 Speculation  (Read 153519 times)

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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #700 on: October 09, 2010, 11:49:49 PM »
These clues strongly suggest that Sweden is the final destination country (even if Stockholm is not the final destination city), at least for Leg 4. What I hope to see, though, is that teams travel overland (or over-sea) for Leg 5, ending up in Norway, or better yet, Denmark. Getting from these two countries to St Petersburg on 5 Jun does require a connection in Stockholm. (Riga and Helsinki, on the other hand, do not.) The timeline suggests that Legs 4 and 5 might not be too geographically close to one another...

If eight countries hasn't been confirmed yet, I'll just leave open the possibility for Sweden II to be Norway or something...

From way back in June, with no sighting spoilers! *takes a little bow* :lol:
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Online georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #701 on: October 10, 2010, 12:18:12 AM »
:bow: to the master!!!

 :<3


 :hearts: :hearts: :hearts:

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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #702 on: October 10, 2010, 12:55:36 AM »
I am speculating about leg 5 from Kiruna to St. Petersburg. There was an unusual amount of time to do this.

Holiday excursion trains run from St. Petersburg, the capital of Russia’s north, through picturesque Karelia, and on to the Kola Peninsula, lapped by the waters of the Barents Sea, so clearly the reverse is possible. Of course teams could fly directly from Murmansk to St. Petersburg ( 2 hour flights at 515am and 9am), but that would not be the romantic way to do it.

Is there a way to bridge the 554km from Kiruna to Murmansk to allow a unique travel experience in Lapland? Unfortunately, I haven't found one. There are no direct fights, although a charter flight could easily do it since both places have major airports.

Online georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #703 on: October 10, 2010, 01:00:57 AM »
That would be great to see! Unfortunately, we already know they fly via Stockholm:

EVIDENCE: Teams spotted at ARN (Stockholm) flying to St. Petersburg 6/5 (SK 732 DEP 10:14am, ARR 1:33pm)

We also have a source who was on the plane with several of the teams....
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline Paron

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #704 on: October 10, 2010, 02:04:17 AM »
Not very solid, as far as I know. What shocks me is that before the race, no one really put that much faith into the sighting, and now we have a lot of people believing [Nick & Vicki] make it far. I still believe they are the next to go. Since this episode is now over, it doesn't do any harm to point out that as of now, the projected results look like this:

11. Ron & Tony
10. Andie & Jenna
9. Nick & Vicki
8. Connor & Jonathan or Katie & Rachel
7. Katie & Rachel or Connor & Jonathan
6. Gary & Mallory
5. Michael & Kevin
4. Chad & Stephanie

Final 3 (In No Order)
Brook & Claire, Jill & Thomas, Nat & Kat
Really?  I thought the men's teams all flame out before F6.  And I think Connor & Jonathan might be the team that leaves in eighth place.  The F7 (I think) were seen going to St. Petersburg.  Michael & Kevin were the only men's team with the other teams at the time.


Online georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #705 on: October 10, 2010, 02:20:20 AM »
I do not believe that list to be correct.

Maybe go recheck our sightings?  :tup:

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Offline Kaylynn

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #706 on: October 10, 2010, 02:51:32 AM »
I do not believe that list to be correct.

Maybe go recheck our sightings?  :tup:


well what is your list boss?
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Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #707 on: October 10, 2010, 03:38:57 AM »
Congradulations Neobie.......I did get a tiny smirking smile today when I read the TVGuide listing for Norway. I remembered your "lone wolf" speculation from June about Norway.....hip hip hooray!!!

I, for one, will really miss your talent around here after CBS hires you to make their maps......lol
« Last Edit: October 10, 2010, 04:23:35 AM by DrRox »
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Online georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #708 on: October 10, 2010, 09:33:25 AM »
I do not believe that list to be correct.

Maybe go recheck our sightings?  :tup:


well what is your list boss?

I don't do lists. :neener:

But the TIMELINE thread has all the info/sightings we have so far, and is a result of extensive research, analysis, and source info, it should be everyone's first stop. :tup:
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline Paron

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #709 on: October 10, 2010, 09:25:51 PM »
Well, this episode throws a lot of theories out the window since the second Ghana leg didn't toss anyone.


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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #710 on: October 10, 2010, 09:36:27 PM »
Not really. :lol:

If you read the Timeline closely, you would have known that ALL teams were reported seen AFTER this leg.

While some sightings were better documented and stronger than others, if you believe the spoilers, then this leg could only be a NEL or TBC.



"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline milanissimo

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #711 on: October 11, 2010, 07:27:14 AM »
This is just a  speculation
Leg 4:Kiruna Sweden
Leg 5:Narvik  Norway
Leg 6:St. Peterburg Russia
Leg 7:Sur  Oman
Leg 8:Dhaka Bangladesh
Leg 9:Dhaka Bangladesh
Leg 10:Hong Kong China
Leg 11:Dongducheon South Korea



« Last Edit: October 11, 2010, 07:34:18 AM by milanissimo »

Offline redskevin88

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #712 on: October 11, 2010, 08:01:50 AM »
This is just a  speculation
Leg 4:Kiruna Sweden
Leg 5:Narvik  Norway
Leg 6:St. Peterburg Russia
Leg 7:Sur  Oman
Leg 8:Dhaka Bangladesh
Leg 9:Dhaka Bangladesh
Leg 10:Hong Kong China
Leg 11:Dongducheon South Korea


Not so sure about Narvik... I could be wrong...

Offline milanissimo

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #713 on: October 11, 2010, 08:07:44 AM »
I think it's right ;)

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #714 on: October 11, 2010, 10:37:00 AM »
After examining the possiblities through Murmansk and having them invalidated by plane sightings, I now think that Narvik Norway is a high probability of being leg 5 pit stop. There is a direct 168km train between Kiruna and Narvik:

Ofotbanen, called Malmbanan in Sweden, is the single-track railway line that connects Kiruna (in Sweden) to Narvik. The route of 168 Km, entirely north of the Polar Circle, goes along a fantastic landscape of mountains and finally along the Ofotfjord. The first part of the journey after leaving Kiruna is in a typical Nordic tundra landscape, then, after Gallivare station, the train starts to go uphill into a mountainous region. The line crosses the Abisko National Park and there is a stop at the very small station of Abisko that serves the tourist centre. When he train reaches Vassijaure you are at the most northern station of Sweden. The train crosses the border between Sweden and Norway at Riksagransen, which is also the point where the railway reaches its highest altitude. There is no customs to mark the border and the only thing that marks the change is the fact that the train now goes downhill.
I have described here just the trip from Kiruna to Narvik, but the train journey I made was actually all the way from Stockholm, on a train that has of course sleeping cars and restaurant. It departs from Stockholm in the afternoon, to arrive in Narvik in the afternoon of the next day.

See Lapland map below for why this makes sense geographically. Narvik is NNW of KIruna.

Here are the weekday schedule from Harstad/Narvik Airport (EVE) to Oslo:

Dep.     To     Flight     Airline   

06:45  08:30  Oslo SK4079      SAS   
06:50  08:30  Oslo DY233         Norwegian Air Shuttle
11:05  12:45  Oslo SK4083/DY2 SAS/Norwegian Air Shuttle   
17:15   18:55 Oslo  DY229       Norwegian Air shuttle
17:55   19:40 Oslo  SK4095     SAS   
19:35   21:15 Oslo  DY237       Norwegian Air Shuttle


Only the ones to Oslo matter, as they can easily connect to Stockholm and from there to St. Petersburg. Flights from Oslo to St. Petersburg connect through Helsinki, Stockholm, Hamburg or Copenhagen. We are looking for a flight through Stockholm having the right time parameters.
The possibilities are:

 OSL  ARN SK864   1100 1200
 ARN  LED SK732   1310 1635

Either SK4079 or DY233 get teams to Oslo in time for the connection on to Stockholm and then St. Petersburg.





 
« Last Edit: September 23, 2011, 08:19:44 AM by TexasLady »

Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #715 on: October 11, 2010, 02:40:29 PM »
Here are the weekday schedule from Harstad/Narvik Airport (EVE) to Oslo:

Dep.     To     Flight     Airline   

06:45  08:30  Oslo SK4079      SAS   
06:50  08:30  Oslo DY233         Norwegian Air Shuttle
11:05  12:45  Oslo SK4083/DY2 SAS/Norwegian Air Shuttle   
17:15   18:55 Oslo  DY229       Norwegian Air shuttle
17:55   19:40 Oslo  SK4095     SAS   
19:35   21:15 Oslo  DY237       Norwegian Air Shuttle

Only the ones to Oslo matter, as they can easily connect to Stockholm and from there to St. Petersburg. Flights from Oslo to St. Petersburg connect through Helsinki, Stockholm, Hamburg or Copenhagen. We are looking for a flight through Stockholm having the right time parameters.
The possibilities are:

 OSL  ARN SK864   1100 1200
 ARN  LED SK732   1310 1635

Either SK4079 or DY233 get teams to Oslo in time for the connection on to Stockholm and then St. Petersburg.


Great research, apskip, but there is a fly in the ointment. The confirmed flight for ARN to LED is SK 732  1000 to 1330. The witness confirmed all the teams on that flight in this communication with Peach.

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,21997.msg526813.html#msg526813   Post #418

So if we work backwards from ARN to Oslo, for connecting flights, we get two possible flights. If we give 1 hour  of connection time, then they must arrive in Oslo by 0900 on June 5, 2110, a Saturday. These are the two posibilities…

SK 848   0742 to 0833  or
DY 810   0756 to 0845

So looking for flights from EVE to OSL on Sat June 5,2110, there are only 3 flights on a reduced service Saturday. One each in the morning, afternoon and evening. The morning flight is

DY 233  0648 to 0817

As you can see, it does not arrive in Oslo (OSL) in time to make the connection to Stockholm (ARN). They could have left on the evening of June 4, 2110 and slept in the Oslo airport, but I think that is unlikely.

At this time, I think that the teams drove the cars they picked up at Kiruna Airport (KRN) to the Narvik area. That is my assumption for this speculation. If they did drive, then they could be released in time to drive back to Kiruna Airport to make the following flights to St Petersburg.

KRN ARN    DY 3766   0730 to 0855
ARN LED     SK 732     1000 to 1330

One other small matter. The airport at Narvik, Harstad-Narvik (EVE) is 80 km from Narvik. It is on the opposite side of the fjord and west of Narvik. It is a very convoluted drive. I think they could have had the mat and pit stop out there close to the airport, and made them drive out there to check in for Leg 5. But the fact that you can't make the ARN/LED flight by flying out of EVE doesn’t make much sense. I tried to check the railroad timetables to see if traveling between Kiruna and Narvik was viable, but I have been unable to find June timetables.
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #716 on: October 11, 2010, 04:14:48 PM »
Here are timetables in effect August 22 to December 11 for trains from Kiruna to Narvik:

304 km Kiruna C  7.09    9.31 10.31 14.04(bus)

473 km Narvik      10.01 12.40 13.25 16.51(bus)

I could find nothing for earlier than August, but it is reasonable to assume schedules would be comparable or more frequent.

The reverse direction train schedules  for the same date range from Narvik to KIruna are:

                              
0 km          Narvik          10.26 14.50

169 km Kiruna C          13.27 17.26
                                
473 km Lulea in            17.24 21.04
  
      
473 km Lulea  out         19.57

Uppsala in         8.31
Uppsala  out      8.53

 Arlanda Airport   9.01  

This indicates it takes 22.5 hours to do this route by train.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2010, 07:22:14 AM by apskip »

Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #717 on: October 12, 2010, 05:08:35 AM »
That long train ride from Narvik to Stockholm, from apskip, sure leads to some interesting spec about the timeline above the arctic circle. If Leg 6 really starts on June 4 with that 22 hour train ride from Narvik to Stockholm, then it would really give Phil almost 2 days before meeting the teams at the mat in St Petersburg on the evening of June 5th. One to do his standups and the other to catch up on the internet and other things that he has mentioned in tweets and facebook posts.

If teams finish Leg 4 before midnight on June 1 near the Norwegian border, from the ski resort identification. Leg 5 could be finished by midnight June 2 or early morning June 3 and Phil could fly out. Teams could have some sort of an extended pit stop in the Narvik area. Then teams could be released to take the train on June 4 to start leg 6, arriving in Arlanda Airport the morning of June 5 when they were spotted.

As Neobie has mentioned, there is no nighttime up there at that time of year. The Land of the Midnight Sun. Its possible they could have some planned HoO tasks to stretch out the legs also to fit into my timeline, with thanks to apskip for the train schedules.

It also provides a good escape route for the 3rd and 4th teams going to the ES. They could fly from Narvik to Oslo to Cancun and not have to reverse course.

« Last Edit: October 12, 2010, 05:25:29 AM by DrRox »
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Offline furybaby

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #718 on: October 12, 2010, 04:32:12 PM »
I really hope Team Jumba doesn't get eliminated tht soon :'(
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Offline furybaby

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #719 on: October 12, 2010, 04:35:18 PM »
Lists are so much more simple than a timeline though  :hearts:
you can actually guess/piece the infos and make a list  :jam:
that way it give me more faith bout other teams heh   :-[
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Offline DrRox

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #720 on: October 12, 2010, 05:37:21 PM »
Lists are so much more simple than a timeline though  :hearts:
you can actually guess/piece the infos and make a list  :jam:
that way it give me more faith bout other teams heh   :-[

Lists are for lazy people. If you want lists, then go to Sucks. They are all about lists and lists and lists. They change their lists everyday. RFF is about facts. Those facts are posted. Feel free to make your own list anytime you wish.

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Offline furybaby

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #721 on: October 12, 2010, 06:46:01 PM »
Lists are so much more simple than a timeline though  :hearts:
you can actually guess/piece the infos and make a list  :jam:
that way it give me more faith bout other teams heh   :-[

Lists are for lazy people. If you want lists, then go to Sucks. They are all about lists and lists and lists. They change their lists everyday. RFF is about facts. Those facts are posted. Feel free to make your own list anytime you wish.

RFF likes to explore all the interrogatives. ie the Who,What, Where, When, How and Why. If you are only interested in the Who.....well there are other places that highlight that aspect only.

lol im just saying  :'(
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Offline slayton

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #722 on: October 13, 2010, 08:59:38 PM »
From the spoilers and watching the first three episodes, I would expect Nat & Kat to win the race.

Nat & Kat have gotten a lot of camera time, and they've been persistently portrayed for the past 2 episodes as a team that's in jeopardy of being eliminated, despite not doing anything particularly notable in either episode to warrant camera time.  The editors had a similar edit in TAR16.

I definitely take notice when a team gets a lot of camera time despite not doing anything distinctive.

In TAR14, the editors gave Tammy & Victor a lot of camera time and portrayed them as being in jeopardy of being eliminated, and played up their sibling squabbling, whenever possible.  The only difference between Tammy & Victor and TAR16 and TAR17, is that Tammy & Victor did actually do stuff to warrant camera time, whether it was something like getting lost in Romania or ditching Margie & Luke and Jaime & Cara in Russia.

Offline Belle Book

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #723 on: October 14, 2010, 03:36:00 PM »
From the spoilers and watching the first three episodes, I would expect Nat & Kat to win the race.

Nat & Kat have gotten a lot of camera time, and they've been persistently portrayed for the past 2 episodes as a team that's in jeopardy of being eliminated, despite not doing anything particularly notable in either episode to warrant camera time.  The editors had a similar edit in TAR16.

I definitely take notice when a team gets a lot of camera time despite not doing anything distinctive.

In TAR14, the editors gave Tammy & Victor a lot of camera time and portrayed them as being in jeopardy of being eliminated, and played up their sibling squabbling, whenever possible.  The only difference between Tammy & Victor and TAR16 and TAR17, is that Tammy & Victor did actually do stuff to warrant camera time, whether it was something like getting lost in Romania or ditching Margie & Luke and Jaime & Cara in Russia.

As Nat & Kat are my favorite team, I hope you're right!

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Offline Caelestor

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #724 on: October 16, 2010, 12:00:46 AM »
The location of Leg 4's detour is awfully close to the Norwegian border. It's possible that the pitstop may actually be in Norway.

Further spec suggests that during Leg 5, teams gradually head south towards Bodo/Fauske. Then they would probably take an overnight train to Oslo Gardermoen arriving 06:06, which allows them to take SK848 to ARN (07:45-08:45) and onwards to LED.

Of course, this gets completely thrown out if the race actually swings north to Tromso.
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