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Author Topic: TAR 17 Speculation  (Read 151773 times)

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Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #425 on: June 10, 2010, 07:52:44 PM »
S. Korea would likely be one of the penultimate legs, due to its proximity to America. I agree Bangladesh is highly likely, for reasons I've stated earlier. After Bangladesh is the question, however: will the route curve north or south? Oceania may be visited solely to prevent TAR 17 from becoming another Northern Hemisphere route.


Oceania is way due since TAR13 when they visited New Zealand.  We could get a leg or 2 there again followed by a leg somewhere in the South Pacific like Samoa, Fiji, or Tonga.  Then go to Hawaii/Alaska and the US mainland for the Final Leg if there is a 13 leg-structure similar to TAR1/TAR2/TAR3/TAR4/TAR5/TAR11. I think the route would curve south after Bangladesh and north back to the USA.
13 Legs sounds plausible for me if there was a immediate destination like Alaska or Hawaii. 
The race could finish like on the 19th or 20th of this month.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2010, 08:11:00 PM by mjriches2005 »


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #426 on: June 10, 2010, 08:11:10 PM »


Yeah, South Korea is out of the question. 

Would you like to share your evidence for this? I have posted something else in the spoiler thread which may conflict with your statement.

Not trying to single out one person, but this is a good example of something that can cause problems.

If you all think/believe/wish/want something to be true...please say I wish/believe/want/think that such and such is true. Not such and such IS true unless you have factual evidence to support your statements.

And IF you have the facts to support your definitive statements, please share them in spoilers.

It is very frustrating when people who read here and clearly do not have all the facts or are only stating their own opinions,  make statements  that are then reported in other forums and media as "RFF says".

For the record...unless it is in the TIMELINE thread...RFF does NOT say.

Please just be clear about whether something is your speculation or your opinion or a FACT that can be supported by a photo, a trusted source, or something like a permit.

Thanks!!

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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #427 on: June 10, 2010, 08:11:44 PM »
Bangladesh, if the spoilers and my calculations are both right, would be Leg 8. If Legs 10 and 11 are in the same city following the TAR 13-16 tradition, we'd only have one leg left to guess. Korea (and Australia) do seem to be in the right place for the penultimate legs, with Southeast Asia being the most likely place where the dots connect for Leg 9 in both scenarios...

Unless they do the completely unexpected and go to South America for the final legs.
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #428 on: June 10, 2010, 08:13:44 PM »
Bangladesh, if the spoilers and my calculations are both right, would be Leg 8. If Legs 10 and 11 are in the same city following the TAR 13-16 tradition, we'd only have one leg left to guess. Korea (and Australia) do seem to be in the right place for the penultimate legs, with Southeast Asia being the most likely place where the dots connect for Leg 9 in both scenarios...

Bangladesh is possibly Leg 9 since there is leg between Russia and Oman on the 6th/7th.

Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #429 on: June 10, 2010, 08:18:57 PM »
I'm interpreting the Muscat airport information as teams departing on the night of the 8th.* That suggests that the Muscat leg took place on the 7th. Coupled with teams arriving in St Petersburg at noon on the 5th, there shouldn't be any extra time (barring two TBCs in a row) for a leg in between.

*The spoiler states that teams were seen two days ago, at night, and it was posted on the evening of 10 Jun, Gulf Standard Time.
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Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #430 on: June 10, 2010, 08:23:01 PM »
-Peach-
I say South Korea is out of the question because of the high tension right now with North Korea and the heightened security near the DMZ area.  Camp Casey is a US Armybase and I said before security at a US Base in a foreign country is very high.  TAR11 racers went to Guam which is in a fact a US Territory and not a foreign country and visited military bases there because these places were in fact in the US and so far I haven't seen any race season where they visited a US Military installation in foreign country.  Subject closed!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #431 on: June 10, 2010, 08:44:14 PM »
I think Bangladesh will be leg 8. I guess Australia or South Korea will be penultimate legs.If they choose Australia,they probably choose Philippine for leg 9;if they choose South Korea,they probably choose China for leg 9.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #432 on: June 10, 2010, 09:08:20 PM »
-Peach-
I say South Korea is out of the question because of the high tension right now with North Korea and the heightened security near the DMZ area.  Camp Casey is a US Armybase and I said before security at a US Base in a foreign country is very high.  TAR11 racers went to Guam which is in a fact a US Territory and not a foreign country and visited military bases there because these places were in fact in the US and so far I haven't seen any race season where they visited a US Military installation in foreign country.  Subject closed!!!!!!!!!!!!

You are more than welcome to speculate anything you would like...just please say "In my opinion, South Korea..."

Thanks.
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Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #433 on: June 10, 2010, 09:30:43 PM »
It seems like recently, we've had at least one beachy leg (or 'TnA' leg or bikini leg, depending on your tastes) that's in a tropical climate, or else a leg designed to get the racers out of their clothes - last season had the Seychelles, the season prior had Dubai (and Groningen, and Estonia, and Prague 2...), TAR 14 had Maui (plus Krabi and the fun run in Novosibirsk). Given how...telegenic our cast is, I'd expect at least one of these legs this season.

Barring something in one of the two Ghana legs, we've problably not had said beachy leg. If there *were* to be a future 'beachy' leg, my bet would be on the Philippines, or, less likely, southern Thailand (of course, they could really surprise me and go to the Maldives).

Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #434 on: June 11, 2010, 10:40:34 AM »
This is my speculation, but after Korea, I think they may go to Fiji for the 11th leg.  Then to Hawaii for the 12th leg as a intermediate destination, then onto the US Mainland to finish the leg and race.  They may fly nonstop to Fiji like last season when flew France to Seychelles.  The only flight capable of departing on the 15th is  Korean Air KE0137 at 7:25pm, arriving in Fiji at 8:35am the next day, June 16.  This could be possible.  Then for the 12th and final leg, they could take Air Pacific or Continental Micronesia to Honolulu/Hawaii for the first part of the finale and then fly to the US Mainland to finish.  This sounds very reasonable to me.


Offline Caelestor

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #435 on: June 11, 2010, 11:45:26 AM »
Personally, I don't think we can assume there's an intermediate destination. Hasn't been that case for years.
Besides, intermediate destinations create a bunching point, which kills suspense.
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Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #436 on: June 11, 2010, 11:49:55 AM »
I suspect they'll simply stay in South Korea  for the final two legs before the end. From a historical standpoint it fits with recent TARs and it makes sense from a budget pov

Offline diRkdARyL

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #437 on: June 11, 2010, 12:41:20 PM »
mah spec..
If the penultimate leg was on South Korea, then it's possible that the finish line would be on Illinois or NYC..

Offline mjriches2005

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #438 on: June 11, 2010, 01:46:59 PM »
I suspect they'll simply stay in South Korea  for the final two legs before the end. From a historical standpoint it fits with recent TARs and it makes sense from a budget pov

I still think there will be an intermediate destination before the final city.  Last time it occured was season11.  Since then 12-16, the final legs were short, but I say this could be a better and longer race season.  So lets just look out for the tweets and posts in the next several days to find out what will go on from there.

Offline north09

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #439 on: June 11, 2010, 06:14:47 PM »
No matter where the finale destination is before heading back to America, I am 100% sure it will host two legs. I put together an outline following woden's timeline, and assuming the race lasts 4 weeks per KevJumba, that puts the finale leg on this coming Wednesday.

Leg 10 plays out from June 12 to June 13
Leg 11 plays out June 14
Leg 12 plays out June 15 to June 16
« Last Edit: June 11, 2010, 06:23:11 PM by north09 »

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #440 on: June 11, 2010, 07:30:56 PM »
You mean three weeks, right? ??
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Offline Hooky

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #441 on: June 11, 2010, 07:46:44 PM »

If you all think/believe/wish/want something to be true...please say I wish/believe/want/think that such and such is true. Not such and such IS true unless you have factual evidence to support your statements.

And IF you have the facts to support your definitive statements, please share them in spoilers.
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Exactly. What I've been waiting for for a long time. Some evidence. :groan:

Online weihen

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #442 on: June 11, 2010, 08:01:33 PM »
I just guess the task in Camp Casy will be in leg 10.They often do sport task in 1st leg of last two-legs city(TAR13-Moscow-goose step,TAR14-Beijing-swim,TAR15-Prague-canoe,TAR16-Shanghai-puzzle),and 2nd leg will be more of  city characteristic (TAR13-Russian dance,TAR14-beijing opera,TAR15-legend,TAR16-buddha).
« Last Edit: June 11, 2010, 08:24:55 PM by weihen »

Offline Mrs Shrek

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #443 on: June 11, 2010, 08:09:03 PM »
I just guess the task in Camp Casy will be in leg 10.They often do sport task in 1st leg of last two-legs city(TAR13-Moscow-goose step,TAR14-Beijing-swim,TAR15-Prague-canoe,TAR16-puzzle),and 2nd leg will be more of  city characteristic (TAR13-Russian dance,TAR14-beijing opera,TAR15-legend,TAR16-buddha).

But Camp Casey is scheduled for Monday, which is the 14th, and Leg 11 if you are going by north's projected timeline.

You mean three weeks, right? ??
KevJumba said 4 weeks on his website, but I assume that would be including pre race preparation/travel/sequester, and perhaps a couple of days recovery time after the race ends?

Online weihen

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #444 on: June 11, 2010, 08:20:34 PM »
I just guess the task in Camp Casy will be in leg 10.They often do sport task in 1st leg of last two-legs city(TAR13-Moscow-goose step,TAR14-Beijing-swim,TAR15-Prague-canoe,TAR16-puzzle),and 2nd leg will be more of  city characteristic (TAR13-Russian dance,TAR14-beijing opera,TAR15-legend,TAR16-buddha).

But Camp Casey is scheduled for Monday, which is the 14th, and Leg 11 if you are going by north's projected timeline.


I think leg 10 filmed on Monday ,leg 11 filmed on Tuesday,and they finished in America on Thursday(Wednesday in American time,still Jun 16)
« Last Edit: June 11, 2010, 08:27:55 PM by weihen »

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #445 on: June 11, 2010, 08:22:54 PM »
yes on the time...I believe they had a five day sequester this time including start day...add an approximate 21 day race and you are nearly there. I meant a three week race in my comment (about+/-)

Neobie has lots more spec on the timeline in surprise...the Timeline thread! :jumpy:

And I like that observation about when the sport legs come, weihen.
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Offline Mrs Shrek

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #446 on: June 11, 2010, 08:26:57 PM »

I think leg 10 filmed on Monday ,leg 11 filmed on Tuesday,and they finished in American on Thursday(Wednesday in American time,still Jun 16)

I like it  :tup:

Offline Caelestor

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #447 on: June 11, 2010, 10:10:42 PM »
FWIW, it appears as though TAR 17 will uphold the 8 country, 2 penultimate legs tradition.

UK
Ghana (2)
Sweden (2)
Russia
Oman
Bangladesh
Philippines (?)
S. Korea (2)
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Online weihen

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #448 on: June 11, 2010, 10:28:25 PM »
FWIW, it appears as though TAR 17 will uphold the 8 country, 2 penultimate legs tradition.

UK
Ghana (2)
Sweden (2)
Russia
Oman
Bangladesh
Philippines (?)
S. Korea (2)
Philippines confirmed?

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 17 Speculation
« Reply #449 on: June 12, 2010, 12:11:14 AM »
Not completely. A poster saying he will be working there...but it is not yet clear whether it is TAR or TARA...
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan


 

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