Author Topic: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 Updating for 24!  (Read 42192 times)

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Offline theschnauzers

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Sorry for the technology delay, but here is the first leaderboard trends for TAR 19.
With the color chart, any reddish shade in a falling placement trend, any greenish shade is a rising placement trend, and blue is a stable placement trend.


Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (1)..Trend
Andy - Tommy..................2.500..........3.000...........4.000..........7.000.........Rising
Laurence - Zac................3.500..........3.333...........4.000..........6.000.........Stable
Jeremy - Sandy................3.500..........3.667...........4.000..........2.000.........Stable
Ernie - Cindy.................3.750..........3.333...........2.500..........1.000.........Falling Slowly
Justin - Jennifer.............4.250..........5.000...........5.500..........3.000.........Rising Slowly
Amani - Marcus................6.500..........6.667...........7.000..........5.000.........Rising Slowly
Liz - Marie...................7.750..........7.667...........7.500.........10.000.........Stable
Bill - Cathi..................8.000..........8.333...........9.000.........11.000.........Rising Slowly


Kaylani - Lisa....7.00 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.00 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.50 (eliminated)


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Offline Jobby

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Only Ernie and Cindy falling... and Liz and Marie is "stable" lol. :lol:
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Offline theschnauzers

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Some of the falling goes to the eliminated teams.....and the fact that two of the first 4 legs were NELs.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Forgot to get this up during the week, but here's the updated information following leg 5:

Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (5)...Last Leg (4)...Prior Leg (3)..Trend


Team..........................This Leg (4)...Last Leg (3)...Prior Leg (2)..First Leg (2)..Trend
Andy - Tommy..................3.000..........2.500..........3.000..........Stable
Ernie - Cindy.................3.600..........3.750..........3.333..........Stable
Laurence - Zac................4.000..........3.500..........3.333..........Falling Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy................4.200..........3.500..........3.667..........Falling Slowly
Justin - Jennifer.............4.200..........4.250..........5.000..........Rising Slowly
Amani - Marcus................5.400..........6.500..........6.667..........Rising
Bill - Cathi..................6.800..........8.000..........8.333..........Rising


Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)


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Offline theschnauzers

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We're halfway through, and here's the latest leaderboard trends after leg 6:
Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (6)...Last Leg (5)...Prior Leg (4)..Trend

Andy - Tommy..................2.666..........3.000..........2.500..........Stable
Justin - Jennifer.............3.833..........4.200..........4.250..........Rising Slowly
Ernie - Cindy.................3.833..........3.600..........3.750..........Stable
Laurence - Zac................4.000..........4.000..........3.500..........Stable
Jeremy - Sandy................4.000..........4.200..........3.500..........Stable
Amani - Marcus................5.666..........5.400..........6.500..........Rising Slowly
Bill - Cathi..................6.666..........6.800..........8.000..........Rising Slowly


Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)


Four of the teams are virtually even with one another, with one team ahead and two other teams behind the pack.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (7)...Last Leg (6)...Prior Leg (5)..Trend

Andy - Tommy..................2.428..........2.666..........3.000..........Rising Slowly
Ernie - Cindy.................3.571..........3.833..........3.600..........Stable
Laurence - Zac................4.142..........4.000..........4.000..........Stable
Jeremy - Sandy................4.285..........4.000..........4.200..........Stable
Amani - Marcus................5.428..........5.666..........5.400..........Stable
Bill - Cathi..................6.142..........6.666..........6.800..........Rising Slowly


Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)




At the moment, Andy-Tommy would have the eighth best average placement ever, if their current average (2.428) were their final average (yes, even with 5 first places out of seven legs). The only team ever with a better average after 7 legs is Eric-Jeremy (TAR 9) who had a 7-leg average placement of 1.285 (5 first places and 2 second places).
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Offline theschnauzers

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Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Team..........................This Leg (8 )...Last Leg (7)...Prior Leg (6)..Trend

Andy - Tommy..................2.500..........2.428..........2.666..........Stable
Ernie - Cindy.................3.250..........3.571..........3.833..........Rising Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy................4.375..........4.285..........4.000..........Falling Slowly
Amani - Marcus................5.250..........5.428..........5.666..........Rising Slowly
Bill - Cathi..................5.675..........6.142..........6.666..........Rising Slowly

Laurence - Zac....4.375 (eliminated)
Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)



The order of the five remaining teams has not changed in three weeks. and this suggests the relative strengths of the teams are pretty well set.  The odds favor Andy-Tommy, Ernie-Cindy, and Jeremy-Sandy as the final three teams, but given the relative closeness among the five teams , there is room for a surprise by the time we get down to the final three teams.
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Offline Jobby

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Thanks for the analysis! It's amazing with 5 leg wins Andy and Tommy still do not have the best averages thanks to their sucky first leg. :lol:
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Offline Best Loser

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Thanks for the analysis! It's amazing with 5 leg wins Andy and Tommy still do not have the best averages thanks to their sucky first leg. :lol:

Yeah, it's interesting how several really good teams have lousy first legs that ruin their averages. Derek & Drew, Colin & Christie, and Ron & Kelly come to mind.

Offline Jobby

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Thanks for the analysis! It's amazing with 5 leg wins Andy and Tommy still do not have the best averages thanks to their sucky first leg. :lol:

Yeah, it's interesting how several really good teams have lousy first legs that ruin their averages. Derek & Drew, Colin & Christie, and Ron & Kelly come to mind.

Nick and Starr. :lol:
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Offline theschnauzers

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In the past, I've calculated these averages excluding the first leg to see if it helped at all; that's how frequently we've seen good teams have poor first legs.

But doing so makes it harder to compare teams between seasons. The primary difference between Andy-Tommy and Eric-Jeremy is that when Eric-Jeremy didn't finish in first in their season, they almost always finished second and that's a performance that is next to impossible to match.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2011, 04:00:23 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline theschnauzers

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With the no-rest-period, start the next leg ending with the first team to check in, we're not able to compute an updated leaderboard trends for leg 9, but legs 9 and 10 will be posted together next week.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Team...................This Leg (10)..Previous Leg (9).Prior Leg (8 )..Prior Leg (7)......Trend

Andy - Tommy...........2.400..........2.666............2.500...........2.428..........Stable
Ernie - Cindy..........3.100..........3.111............3.250...........3.571..........Rising Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy.........4.200..........4.222............4.375...........4.285..........Stable
Amani - Marcus.........4.800..........4.777............5.250...........5.428..........Rising Slowly
Bill - Cathi...........5.500..........5.555............5.675...........6.142..........Rising Slowly

Laurence - Zac....4.375 (eliminated)
Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)




The final five, now final four teams have remained in the same order since leg 6. The highest averaging remaining team, Amani-Marcus seem to be improving, but thatís because their average placement has been higher than the number of remaining teams. (Same thing for Bill-Cathi until their elimination on this leg.) Disregarding that, one could say that the teams have basically been stable in their placements since leg 6 with very little movement. Thereís no way of being certain but the law of averages (pun intended) would suggest that the last eliminated team ought to be Amani-Marcus. But that hasnít always been proven to be the case in the past, so no guarantees. :)
« Last Edit: November 27, 2011, 09:27:31 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline theschnauzers

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Here's the last leaderboard trends update for TAR 19:

Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:

Team...................This Leg (11)..Previous Leg (10).Prior Leg (9)..Prior Leg (8 )...Trend

Ernie - Cindy..........3.000..........3.100.............3.111..........3.250............Rising Slowly
Jeremy - Sandy.........3.727..........4.200.............4.222..........4.375............Rising Slowly
Amani - Marcus.........4.636..........4.800.............4.777..........5.250............Rising Slowly

Andy - Tommy......2.545 (eliminated)
Bill - Cathi......5.500 (eliminated)
Laurence - Zac....4.375 (eliminated)
Justin - Jennifer.4.285 (eliminated)
Liz - Marie.......7.800 (eliminated)   
Kaylani - Lisa....7.000 (eliminated)   
Ethan - Jenna.....7.000 (eliminated)
Ron - Bill........9.500 (eliminated)


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Offline Flamant

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Andy - Tommy......2.545 (eliminated)

Was wondering... I did A/T's average and I came with 2,6364 :duno:
7+1+1+1+5+1+1+3+4+1+4=29
29/11=2,6364

Offline theschnauzers

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Typo that had me hit the keys next to the correct keys. So it is 2.636

But Andy-Tommy did set both records I mentioned anyhow, as Oswald-Danny averaged 2.666 when they finished 4th during the TARAS season.

That's why I normally try to do this the next day so I'm not tired. :)
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Offline theschnauzers

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Here's the final averages for the TAR 19 teams and the leg by leg placements.

I'm trying to work around the dislike BBCode has for the TAB spacing to line up the information so it looks better.


Code: [Select]
Team L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver

19-01 Ernie - Cindy 1 4 5 5 3 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 34/12 2.833
19-02 Jeremy - Sandy 2 6 3 3 7 3 6 5 3 2 1 2 43/12 3.583
19-03 Amani - Marcus 5 9 6 6 1 7 4 4 1 4 3 3 54/12 4.416

19-04 Andy - Tommy 7 1 1 1 5 1 1 3 4 1 4 29/11 2.636
19-05 Bill - Cathi 11 7 7 7 2 6 3 2 5 5 50/10 5.500
19-06 Laurence - Zac 6 2 2 4 6 4 5 6 35/8 4.375
19-07 Justin - Jennifer3 8 4 2 4 2 7 30/7 4.285
19-08 Liz - Marie 10 5 8 8 8 39/5 7.800
19-09 Kaylani - Lisa 9 3 9 21/3 7.000
19-10 Ethan - Jenna 4 10 14/2 7.000
19-11 Ron - Bill 8 11 19/2 9.500


Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2011, 09:07:20 AM by theschnauzers »
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Offline Best Loser

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Amani & Marcus's average should be 4.417. It's 53/12, not 54/12

Offline Jobby

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Wow, thanks for all the analysis this season, theschnauzers! :cmas16
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Offline theschnauzers

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Amani & Marcus's average should be 4.417. It's 53/12, not 54/12

I don't round off fractions in my computations, so the correct value is 4.4166666... and I drop everything after the third digit after the decimal. So I should have gotten 4.416.

It may be a little bit of time before I update the primary list in the first post; I want to try and use colors more liberally and I also want to format all the prior seasons by season rankings with the individual leg placements; which is a formatting task. That was one reason for using the "code" code to see if I could get it to work at all. It required some tinkering of the embedded "TAB" codes used by Corel WordPerfect and it looks as if I'll have to so each line manually to get everything to look right.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Updated list through TAR 19 now in first post with some color tweaks. I'm also posting as a new thread the season by season leg-by-leg placements for all teams. That list will be colorful!
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Offline theschnauzers

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It's time to start tracking the TAR 20 teams.
The rolling performance format should likely start appearing next week.

For now, though, here are the teams' average placement through the first 2 of the 12 legs. Unlike the leaderboard thread (which I'll update as well), teams are ranked in average placement order.:
Code: [Select]
Team....................L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 Pl/Legs Aver

Rachel-Dave 1 1 2/2 1.0000
Art-J.J. 3 2 5/2 2.5000
Brendon-Rachel 2 4 6/2 3.0000
Nary-Jamie 4 6 10/2 5.0000
Kerri-Stacy 7 5 12/2 6.0000
Mark-Bopper 9 3 12/2 6.0000
Vanessa-Ralph 5 7 12/2 6.0000
Elliot-Andrew 6 9 15/2 7.5000
Joey-Danny 10 8 18/2 9.0000
20-10 Dave-Cherie 8 10 (eliminated) 18/2 9.0000
20-11 Misa-Maiya 11 (eliminated) 11/1 11.0000
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Offline bobnlori

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
« Reply #197 on: February 28, 2012, 09:59:04 AM »
interesting. while the pure math make it seem like the wrong teams won a lot, sometimes the rankings are a little skewed by split second finishes. Colin was a beast, Christie was eye candy, they put a rule in after his season that the road blocks had to be shared. He did all but one on that race.
I actually have found someone with more passion for the race than me and my girlfriend would disagree, but you have all the facts. I have them all on DVD and memories

Offline David

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
« Reply #198 on: February 28, 2012, 12:42:06 PM »
I think Bill & Cathy total is 53 55 :lol: , not 50. JSYK :tup:

Great job! Anyways.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2012, 04:25:48 PM by Dave the 2nd »
Sam's AR10: Sarah & Shaleen F04 Leg 10 (4,352,785 IDR)
TAR Greece: Ήβη & Ελευθερία F15 Leg 02 (Kos Town-418Ä)
Joab TAR24: David (Veteran) F15 Leg 07 (The Bottomgod)

Offline TARFansurvivor

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams through TAR 20 (Ongoing)
« Reply #199 on: February 28, 2012, 12:55:30 PM »
I hope that Rachel and Dave bets the record,with most wins. It is now 7 wins in the Us-version.
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