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Author Topic: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 (current)  (Read 46534 times)

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Offline Jobby

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These statistics are crazy but very fun to read through!
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Offline theschnauzers

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Quote
I could always post my compiled record of placements by season that shows each leg. (And I have all of the uberleg midpoints which Wikipedia doesn't have.) 

I've already said that of there was an interest, I'd post the season-by-leg placements if there's any interest in my doing so.
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Offline theschnauzers

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I'm will, of course, be tracking the average placements leg-by-leg again for season 17.  Like last time, I expect to start posting the average placements at either leg 2 or leg 3, depending on if there's a lot of movement among the teams in those very early legs.  And as we get towards the end I'll also start projecting the final average placement ranges for the remaining teams.

If you want to discuss more than the actual numbers and compare teams, that's for other threads, For example, http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,21338.0.html
« Last Edit: September 19, 2010, 01:57:20 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline theschnauzers

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With all of the placement movements just in the first two legs, I've gone ahead and started the weekly leaderboard tracking for TAR 17 with the second leg.  
The format that I used last season will be visible next week (current placement average compared to prior weeks' placement averages), but goota start sometime!

........................L1     L2      Avg.
Brook-Claire.......04     01      05/2   2.50
Jill-Thomas........01     05      06/2   3.00
Katie-Rachel.......05     02      07/2   3.50
Connor-Jonathan.03     06      09/2   4.50
Nat-Kat..............02     07      09/2   4.50
Michael-Kevin.....07     03      10/2   5.00
Chad-Stephanie..08     04      12/2   6.00
Gary-Mallory......06     09      15/2   7.50
Nick-Vicki..........10     08      18/2   9.00

Andie-Jenna.......09     10      19/2   9.50
Ron-Tony...........11              11/1   11.00
« Last Edit: October 04, 2010, 04:41:59 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline Mug Costanza

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^ You don't have Brook and Claire on that list.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Copy-and-paste issue fixed.
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Offline DrRox

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You might want to edit the thread topic....Updated for TAR 16/17     If you cant, maybe an admin will.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #132 on: October 04, 2010, 06:55:50 PM »
Done, with a twist. :)
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #133 on: October 10, 2010, 10:26:34 PM »
This is week three, and this will be the base week for assessing placement trends starting with leg 4 next week:

Leaderboard Trends
.........................................................This Week.......... (Last Week)
Team....................L1...L2..L3..........Pl/Legs    Aver......(Pl/Legs    Aver..).

Connor-Jonathan.....03     06    01   10/3   3.3333..........(09/2   4.5000)
Brook-Claire...........04     01    06   11/3   3.6666..........(05/2   2.5000)
Katie-Rachel...........05     02    04   11/3   3.6666..........(07/2   3.5000)
Jill-Thomas.............01     05    07   13/3   4.3333..........(06/2   3.0000)
Chad-Stephanie.......08     04    03   15/3   5.0000..........(12/2   6.0000)
Gary-Mallory...........06     09    02   17/3   5.6666..........(15/2   7.5000)
Nat-Kat..................02     07    08   17/3   5.6666..........(09/2   4.5000)
Michael-Kevin..........07     03    09   19/3   6.3333..........(10/2   5.0000)
Nick-Vicki...............10     08    05   23/3   7.6666..........(18/2   9.0000)

Andie-Jenna.......09     10       19/2   9.50
Ron-Tony...........11                 11/1   11.00
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #134 on: October 19, 2010, 02:16:36 AM »
Here's the first placement chart of the season with each remaining team's trends:
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends
..............................................................This Week.......... (Last Week)................(Two Weeks Ago)
Team.......................L1...L2....L3..........Pl/Legs ..Aver......(Pl/Legs ..Aver..).......(Pl/Legs Aver..)


Brook-Claire...........04     01... 06........03......14/4    3.5000 (11/3..........3.6666)  (05/2   2.5000)   Slowly rising
Nat-Kat....................02     07... 08.......01........18/4   4.5000     (17/3..........5.6666)  (09/2   4.5000)    Little Movement
Jill-Thomas.............01     05... 07........05.......18/4   4.5000       (13/3..........4.3333)  (06/2   3.0000)   Little Movement
Katie-Rachel...........05     02... 04........08......19/4    4.7500       (11/3..........3.6666)  (07/2   3.5000)   Slowly falling
Gary-Mallory...........06     09... 02.......02.......19/4   4.7500       (17/3..........5.6666)  (15/2   7.5000)   Rising
Chad-Stephanie.......08     04... 03.......07........22/4   5.5000      (15/3..........5.0000)  (12/2   6.0000)   Little Movement
Michael-Kevin..........07     03.. 09........04....... 23/4   5.7500      (19/3..........6.3333)  (10/2   5.0000)   Slowly Dropping
Nick-Vicki...............10     08.... 05.......06....... 29/4  7.2500      (23/3..........7.6666)  (18/2   9.0000)   Rising

Connor-Jonathan.....03     06    01    09           19/4   4.75
Andie-Jenna.......09     10                    19/2   9.50
Ron-Tony...........11                              11/1   11.00
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #135 on: November 02, 2010, 04:59:17 PM »
Sorry about not posting last week, but those numbers are included as part of the rolling back to set trends with movement over last two legs:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (6).....Last Leg (5).....Previous Leg (4)..Trend
Nat-Kat............23/6   3.8333.....19/5 3.8000.....18/4   4.5000.....Slowly Rising
Brook-Claire.....21/6   3.5000.....19/5 3.8000.....14/4   3.5000.....Stable
Gary-Mallory....27/6   4.5000.....21/5 4.2000.....19/4   4.7500.....Very Slowly Rising
Jill-Thomas......22/6   3.6666.....21/5 4.2000.....18/4   4.5000.....Rising
Michael-Kevin...30/6   5.0000.....27/5 5.4000.....23/4   5.7500.....Rising
Chad-Stephanie.34/6   5.6666.....29/5 5.8000.....22/4   5.5000.....Slowly Falling
Nick-Vicki.........42/6   7.0000.....35/5 7.0000.....29/4   7.2500.....Stable

Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1 11.0000
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #136 on: November 07, 2010, 09:33:33 AM »
I meant to rank the teams by their current placement average, but forgot to do it.  It'll be done with the leg 7 rankings this week.

And I'll start projecting final average placement in a week or two. There're still too many variables for it to make sense yet (number of remaining teams and remaining legs; at least we're down to one remaining NEL which does simplify the projection calculations.
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Offline Jobby

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #137 on: November 07, 2010, 09:38:18 AM »
I can't believe Brook and Claire actually has the best average this season. And i think this is the first time i see at least six of the remaining teams averaging around 4 to 6. Guess the teams rankings have really been unpredictable!
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Offline Zack.

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #138 on: November 10, 2010, 01:17:02 PM »
Keeping the good fight up for theschnauzers  :tup:

Code: [Select]
After Leg 7 (by finishing order):

Team....................Leg 7............Leg 6............Leg 5..............Trend

Nat/Kat..................24/7 3.429....23/6 3.833....19/5 3.800.......Rising
Brooke/Claire.........23/7 3.286....21/6 3.500....19/5 3.800.......Rising
Nick/Vicki................45/7 6.429....42/6 7.000....35/5 7.000.......Slowly rising
Gary/Mallory...........31/7 4.429....27/6 4.500....21/5 4.200.......Stable
Jill/Thomas..............27/7 3.857....22/6 3.666....21/5 4.200......Very slowly rising
Chad/Stephanie......40/7 5.714....34/6 5.666....29/5 5.800.....Stable

Michael/Kevin..........37/7 5.286
Katie/Rachel............27/5 5.400
Connor/Jonathan....19/4 4.750
Andie/Jenna............19/2 9.500
Ron/Tony.................11/1 11.000

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #139 on: November 10, 2010, 03:26:37 PM »
Leaderboard Trends After 7 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (7).....Last Leg (6).....Previous Leg (5)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......23/7   3.2857....21/6   3.5000....19/5 3.8000.......Slowly Rising
Nat-Kat............24/7   3.4285....23/6   3.8333....19/5 3.8000.......Slowly Rising
Jill-Thomas........27/7   3.8571....22/6   3.6666....21/5 4.2000.......Stable
Gary-Mallory.......31/7   4.4285....27/6   4.5000....21/5 4.2000.......Stable
Chad-Stephanie.....40/7   5.7142....34/6   5.6666....29/5 5.8000.......Stable
Nick-Vicki.........45/7   6.4285....42/6   7.0000....35/5 7.0000.......Slowly Rising

Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000

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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #140 on: November 10, 2010, 03:28:55 PM »
Thanks for trying, Zach.

I take these decimal fractions out 4 spaces, and I don't round up or down. That way they are consistent with the rankings list at the beginning of the thread.
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #141 on: November 14, 2010, 08:56:28 PM »
Leaderboard Trends After 8 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (8 ).....Last Leg (7).....Previous Leg (6)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......27/8   3.3750....23/7   3.2857....21/6   3.5000....Stable
Nat-Kat............29/8   3.6250....24/7   3.4285....23/6   3.8333....Slowly Rising
Jill-Thomas........29/8   3.6250....27/7   3.8571....22/6   3.6666....Stable
Chad-Stephanie.....41/8   5.1250....40/7   5.7142....34/6   5.6666....Slowly Rising
Nick-Vicki.........48/8   6.0000....45/7   6.4285....42/6   7.0000....Rising

Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #142 on: November 22, 2010, 12:00:03 AM »
After leg 9 and the Double U-Turn:

Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (9).....Last Leg (8 ).....Previous Leg (7)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......31/9   3.4444....27/8   3.3750....23/7   3.2857....slowly falling
Nat-Kat............32/9   3.5555....29/8   3.6250....24/7   3.4285....steady
Jill-Thomas........30/9   3.3333....29/8   3.6250....27/7   3.8571....slowly rising
Nick-Vicki.........50/9   5.5555....48/8   6.0000....45/7   6.4285....slowly rising

Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #143 on: November 28, 2010, 08:57:19 PM »
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (10)......Last Leg (9).....Previous Leg (8)..Trend
Brook-Claire.......34/10   3.4000....31/9   3.4444.....27/8   3.3750....steady
Nat-Kat............33/10   3.3000....32/9   3.5555.....29/8   3.6250....slowly rising
Jill-Thomas........32/10   3.2000....30/9   3.3333.....29/8   3.6250....slowly rising
Nick-Vicki.........54/10   5.4000....50/9   5.5555.....48/8   6.0000....slowly rising (due to number of teams left)

Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000


I've decided that it makes no sense to do an objective projection on the final four teams for one simple reason. The top 3 teams have been within a range of 0.2 placements for the past several weeks, and are virtually certain of being that way next week.  As to those three teams, they're just about equal in their chances, and there's no objective way of separating them out, unless one of happens to somehow be the last eliminated team next week.  Then it won't matter anyway.
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Offline Jobby

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #144 on: December 05, 2010, 02:24:35 AM »
Interestingly, Brooke and Claire only won one leg, whereas Nat and Kat won four and Jill and Thomas with three. With those statistics, you would have expected Jill and Thomas or Nat and Kat to have a better average. It turns out that Brooke and Claire still have the best average out of the three teams.

Let's not even talk about Nick and Vicki. They have worst averages than the fifth to ninth place team. And if i'm not wrong, another first for TAR is that the first to ninth place team all have averages below 6.0.. which is kinda shocking. :ascared
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #145 on: December 05, 2010, 11:43:48 PM »
I forgot to put the teams in order of average placement but as I said before, those three teams have basically been within .2 placements of one another for most of the Race so there's little practical distinction.

I'll get the leaderboard averages up tomorrow.  It's late, and Lieb has to have her playtime while the sun is up, and she is a ball of energy!
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #146 on: December 06, 2010, 11:11:34 AM »
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (11)......Last Leg (10)....Previous Leg (9)...Trend
Jill-Thomas........33/11  3.0000......32/10   3.2000....30/9   3.3333.....stable
Brook-Claire.......36/11  3.2737......34/10   3.4000....31/9   3.4444.....stable
Nat-Kat............36/11  3.2737......33/10   3.3000....32/9   3.5555.....stable

Nick-Vicki.........58/11  5.2727
Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000

Some "firsts"


First time I've see final three teams this close going into the final leg. (There have been two teams tied, or nearly so, but not three. And these three teams have 9 of the 11 leg winners.
Also unusual, the spread between fourth and ninth place is unusually tight. (from 4.6250 to 5.4000 and when you add in the top three teams the range is 3.0000 to 5.4000, again a very tight spread.)
This says to me that this may have been the season with the greatest spread of parity ever.

Next week, we'll give the final averages that will go into the main list for season 17, and
Show content
a look at season 18.
-- theschnauzers

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #147 on: December 06, 2010, 08:41:28 PM »
Code: [Select]
Leaderboard Trends After 11 Legs:

Team...............This Leg (11)......Last Leg (10)....Previous Leg (9)...Trend
Jill-Thomas........33/11  3.0000......32/10   3.2000....30/9   3.3333.....stable
Brook-Claire.......36/11  3.2737......34/10   3.4000....31/9   3.4444.....stable
Nat-Kat............36/11  3.2737......33/10   3.3000....32/9   3.5555.....stable

Nick-Vicki.........58/11  5.2727
Chad-Stephanie.....46/9   5.1111
Gary-Mallory.......37/8   4.6250
Michael-Kevin......37/7   5.2857
Katie-Rachel.......27/5   5.4000
Connor-Jonathan....19/4   4.7500
Andie-Jenna........19/2   9.5000
Ron-Tony...........11/1  11.0000

Some "firsts"


First time I've see final three teams this close going into the final leg. (There have been two teams tied, or nearly so, but not three. And these three teams have 9 of the 11 leg winners.
Also unusual, the spread between fourth and ninth place is unusually tight. (from 4.6250 to 5.4000 and when you add in the top three teams the range is 3.0000 to 5.4000, again a very tight spread.)
This says to me that this may have been the season with the greatest spread of parity ever.

Next week, we'll give the final averages that will go into the main list for season 17, and
Show content
a look at season 18.

 :jumpy: Simply the reason why Season 17 is awesome!
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Offline slayton

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #148 on: December 07, 2010, 06:53:05 PM »
Rob used the phrase "stacked themselves" for TAR17, and I agree that TAR17 is one of those seasons that has a more level playing field unlike seasons such as TAR1, TAR2, TAR4, TAR9, TAR10 or TAR16.

The alpha-male teams are the Michael Jordans of the race, and this is one of those seasons where Jordan is playing baseball. 

The dominant co-ed teams are probably like the Hakeem Olajuwons of the race.

I still haven't decided if Jill & Thomas are more like Hakeem Olajuwon or Patrick Ewing, but production wanted parity in TAR17 and they got it.


Offline inomu

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Re: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams, UPDATING for TAR 17
« Reply #149 on: December 14, 2010, 05:52:14 PM »
I noticed that Dustin & Kandice, Ron & Kelly and Rob & Kimberly are not in blue in the first post but they should be.

This list is so interesting. What an amazing all-stars it would if the top 11 teams battle against each other!   :cmas28


 

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