FINAL PROJECTION

Lowest Placement for a final three team

5.1818

Lowest Placement by winning team

3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 2 placement points for 2 remaining legs, and 6 placement points for worse possible performance is (3-3) to reach the finish mat with one more elimination and final leg remaining).

Jet-Cord 2.7000 27/10

29/12-33/12

Predicted range (2.4166 to 2.7500)

Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.5833.

Louie-Michael 4.4000 44/10

46/12-50/12

Predicted range (3.8333 to 4.1666)

Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel 4.8000 48/10

50/12-54/12

Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)

Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

Brent-Caite 4.8000 48/10

50/12-54/12

Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)

Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

What this tells us:

Barring an error of nearly unprecedented proportions, Jet-Cord have become the heavy statistical favorites to win, period.

Should any of the other three teams win, that team would become the worse-performing winning team by average placement across all 16 editions to date. None of those three remaining teams can attain an average placement that is any better than 4.0000. If Jet-Cord win it all, they will be the fourth-best performing winners (and eighth overall), just behind Tyler-James and Kris-Jon. If they are third in this next-to-last leg, but win in the end, they wouldn’t be worse that the four more spaces down the list, with the eighth nest winning performance (and 12th best overall performance, ever to date.)

At worse, as long as Jet-Cord make the final three, their final average cannot be worse than 2.7500, the same average placement attained by Margie-Luke.

I’ll be moving long distance next week, so I probably won’t get a chance to update the projection, but once it’s in the final three luck becomes more of a factor with the final leg. Just look at the number of second place teams that finished with a better average than the winning team. Although in this season, unless it’ a Jet-Cord win, it’ll be the worse performing winners ever.