December 25, 2014, 06:12:36 AM

Author Topic: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-25 (current)  (Read 46981 times)

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Offline apskip

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True. What with a complete reversal of finishes and inconsistent teams!

By the way, is it just me who noticed Carol/Brandy's alternating finishes between 2nd and 5th?

No, I didn't because the record for then is:
6th
3rd
3rd
5th
5th
2nd
5th
2nd

Everbloom, you are one of many trying to discover non-existent patterns but thank you after-the-fact for correcting my typo reversing Carol and Brandy's legs 7 and 8.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2010, 07:04:57 PM by apskip »


Offline everbloom

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True. What with a complete reversal of finishes and inconsistent teams!

By the way, is it just me who noticed Carol/Brandy's alternating finishes between 2nd and 5th?

No, I didn't because the record for then is:
6th
3rd
3rd
5th
5th
2nd
2nd
5th
Everbloom, you are one of many trying to discover non-existent patterns.

Found it on Wikipedia. Check it out. They were 2nd on this leg...and we all know what came before this.
TAR 17:
Brook/Claire, Nat/Kat, Jill/Thomas

TARA 4
Richard/Richard, Claire/Michelle, Dimple/Sunaina

OMG!! I finally found the cowboys' Facebook fan page!![/url]

Offline theschnauzers

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I could always post my compiled record of placements by season that shows each leg. (And I have all of the uberleg midpoints which Wikipedia doesn't have.)  :lol:
-- theschnauzers

Offline theschnauzers

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I hope someone asks Carol about her schnauzer. It would cheer me up.

Here's  the placements afyer leg 9. With Carol-Brandy out of the mix, the remaining final four teams stayed in place this week:

Team      This Week   Week 8      Week 7      Week 6      Week 5      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.8888   26/9   (2.8750)   (3.1428)   (2.6666)   (2.4000)   Stable
Louie-Michael   4.4444   40/9   (4.5000)   (4.7142)   (4.8333)   (5.6000)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    5.0000   45/9   (5.5000)   (5.5714)   (6.1666)   (6.4000)   Rising
Brent-Caite    5.1111   46/9   (5.5000)   (5.7142)   (6.1666)   (6.2000)   Rising Slowly

Carol-Brandy   4.0000   36/9
Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1
-- theschnauzers

Offline theschnauzers

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Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 3 placement points for 3 remaining legs, and 10 placement points for worse possible performance is (4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and one NEL, one more eliminations, and final leg)

Jet-Cord   2.8888   26/9
      29/12-36/12
Predicted range (2.4166 to 3.0000)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.8333.

Louie-Michael   4.4444   40/9
      43/12-50/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 4.1666)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel    5.0000   45/9
      48/12-55/12
Predicted range (4.0000 to 4.5866)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166

Brent-Caite    5.1111   46/9
      49/12-56/12
Predicted range (4.0833 to 4.6666)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.5000

What this tells us:
With four teams remaining, Jet-Cord have become the heavy stastical favorites, period. Louie/Michael would have to win all three remaining legs to avoid becoming the worse averaging winning team ever.
All four teams have a decent or better chance of being final three. None of the teams can finish with an acerage as low as the worse performing final three team. There isn’t much to go on as to which team is most likely to be the last eliminated team, but since next week has to logically be a NEL, there’s still one more leg to factor in to see if a favorite for elimination emerges.

One statistical oddity. At this point in the Race, all team acerages will tend to improve, especially for the teams whose current placement average is at 4.0000 or higher. Jet-Cord on the other hand could still raise their average closer to or above 3.000, as their average is lower than 4.000.
-- theschnauzers


Offline theschnauzers

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Team      This Week   Week 9      Week 8      Week 7      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.7000   27/10   (2.8888)   (2.8750)   (3.1428)   Rising Slowly
Louie-Michael   4.4000   44/10   (4.4444)   (4.5000)   (4.7142)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    4.8000   48/10   (5.0000)   (5.5000)   (5.5714)   Rising Slowly
Brent-Caite    4.8000   48/10   (5.1111)   (5.5000)   (5.7142)   Rising Slowly


Carol-Brandy   4.0000   36/9
Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1   

It now appears we're going to have at least two final three teams wgose final average will be higher than 3.0, even 4.0.
-- theschnauzers

Offline theschnauzers

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FINAL PROJECTION

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 2 placement points for 2 remaining legs, and 6 placement points for worse possible performance is (3-3) to reach the finish mat with one more elimination and final leg remaining).

Jet-Cord   2.7000   27/10
      29/12-33/12
Predicted range (2.4166 to 2.7500)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.5833.

Louie-Michael   4.4000   44/10
      46/12-50/12
Predicted range (3.8333 to 4.1666)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel    4.8000   48/10
      50/12-54/12
Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

Brent-Caite    4.8000   48/10
      50/12-54/12
Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

What this tells us:
Barring an error of nearly unprecedented proportions, Jet-Cord have become the heavy statistical favorites to win, period.

Should any of the other three teams win, that team would become the worse-performing winning team by average placement across all 16 editions to date. None of those three remaining teams can attain an average placement that is any better than 4.0000. If Jet-Cord win it all, they will be the fourth-best performing winners (and eighth overall), just behind Tyler-James and Kris-Jon. If they are third in this next-to-last leg, but win in the end, they wouldn’t be worse that the four more spaces down the list, with the eighth nest winning performance (and 12th best overall performance, ever to date.)

At worse, as long as Jet-Cord make the final three, their final average cannot be worse than 2.7500, the same average placement attained by Margie-Luke.

I’ll be moving long distance next week, so I probably won’t get a chance to update the projection, but once it’s in the final three luck becomes more of a factor with the final leg. Just look at the number of second place teams that finished with a better average than the winning team. Although in this season, unless it’ a Jet-Cord win, it’ll be the worse performing winners ever.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2010, 10:55:17 PM by theschnauzers »
-- theschnauzers

Offline theschnauzers

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Here's the placements after leg 11.  I probably won't be ale to post the final placements next Sunday night; at the moment I don't even know where I will be next Sunday night.

But the next chance I get after Sunday, I'll post the season numbers and update the list at the beginning of the thread.

Team      This Week   Week 10   Week 9      Week 8      Week 7      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.6363   29/11   (2.7000)   (2.8888)   (2.8750)   (3.1428)   Steady
Brent-Caite    4.4545   49/11    (4.8000)   (5.1111)   (5.5000)   (5.7142)   Rising Slowly
Jordan-Daniel    4.6363   51/11    (4.8000)   (5.0000)   (5.5000)   (5.5714)   Rising Slowly

Louie-Michael   4.3636   48/11
Carol-Brandy   4.0000   36/9
Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1   
« Last Edit: May 04, 2010, 12:13:03 PM by theschnauzers »
-- theschnauzers

Offline Hooky

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I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(

Offline Dånooky

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I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
you should re-open your rant thread
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Offline georgiapeach

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I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
you should re-open your rant thread

Let's not. :lol:

And this thread is for the schnauzers ranking discussion, who you want to win can go elsewhere, okay? :ty3:
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Offline Hooky

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Offline theschnauzers

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Here are the final numbers for Race 16. An updated combined list will be edited into the first post of this thread, as well.


16-02 Jet-Cord      31/12   2.5833   
16-06 Steve-Allison      27/8    3.3750
16-05 Carol-Brandy      36/9    4.0000   
16-01 Jordan-Daniel    52/12   4.3333   
16-03 Brent-Caite    52/12   4.3333   

16-04 Louie-Michael   48/11   4.3636   
16-08 Joseph-Heidi       22/5    4.4000
16-09 Monique-Shawne    16/3    5.3333   
16-07 Jeff-Jordan      34/6    5.6666   
16-10 Jody-Shannon    20/2   10.0000   
16-11 Adrian-Dana       11/1    11.0000

Perhaps the worse objectively performing final three, and definitiely the worst average placemenr for a winning team, ever. Very disappointing.
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Offline Dånooky

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Perhaps the worse objectively performing final three, and definitiely the worst average placemenr for a winning team, ever. Very disappointing.

I don't find it disappointing at all, sometimes the underdogs are bound to win, or else every season without a Nick/Starr or Meghan/Cheyne would be a disappointment by those standards.
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Offline slayton

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I agree with you and share your disappointment, theschnauzers, about the final 3 and the worst performing winners ever.

I disagree with Dånooky about Dan & Jordan being underdogs.

Young/male teams have always been the favorites, followed by young/co-ed teams.

If I were to rank the teams based on winning archetypes before the race started, Jet & Cord and Dan & Jordan would have been the top 2, followed by Brent & Caite and Jeff & Jordan.

Offline chill_sd

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As has been pointed out, this is an interesting way of statistically ranking the teams.  Unfortunately, it doesn't tell a great deal about the level of competition in a particular season.

For example, this season, 9 of the 11 teams had rankings under 6.0, 8 teams were under 5.5 and 7 teams were under 4.5, including the 8th place team.  This indicates some parity among the teams.

What it doesn't tell us is if this is parity among high-level teams or if it is parity among mediocre teams, or even poor teams.

All-Stars had a similar result, with 8 of 11 teams under 5.5, 7 under 5.0 and 6 under 4.5, including the winners at 3.6.

I would venture to say that the All-Stars cast was evenly matched at a fairly high level of racing, whereas the S16 cast were evenly matched at a somewhat lower level of racing.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2010, 06:41:46 PM by chill_sd »

Offline theschnauzers

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Consider that four teams finished within a range of .06 of a placement within each other, and three of those teams were within .03 placements:

Quote
16-01 Jordan-Daniel    52/12   4.3333   
16-03 Brent-Caite    52/12   4.3333   
16-04 Louie-Michael   48/11   4.3636   
16-08 Joseph-Heidi       22/5    4.4000

We've had two teams in the final three finish with an identical average before (Rob/Brennan and Frank-Margarita in the first season), but they were the dominant teams in their season, I'd be hard pressed to label either Brent-Caite or Dan-Jordan as "dominant teams."

-- theschnauzers

Offline mswood

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Well no matter which team I like or don't I have to admit that I can't find fault in the teams that have won since season 12.  By removing mid leg equalizers they have put the final leg in the hand of the racers and dumb luck.  Now that doesn't mean I have disliked all the earlier winners (because that isn''t true), but if you win, by god I want you to have a run the leg better then any other team.  I don't want you to be just the team that did good on one final task and only finished first because an equalizer mid leg erased the lead another team had on you.  Thats why I love the new lay out for legs, you can build a lead, and you can lose a lead, but it isn't due to the manipulation of the producers.

Offline Caelestor

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Well no matter which team I like or don't I have to admit that I can't find fault in the teams that have won since season 12.  By removing mid leg equalizers they have put the final leg in the hand of the racers and dumb luck.  Now that doesn't mean I have disliked all the earlier winners (because that isn''t true), but if you win, by god I want you to have a run the leg better then any other team.  I don't want you to be just the team that did good on one final task and only finished first because an equalizer mid leg erased the lead another team had on you.  Thats why I love the new lay out for legs, you can build a lead, and you can lose a lead, but it isn't due to the manipulation of the producers.

I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.
I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).
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Offline SuzuKen

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I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.
I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I though TAR12 was tricky enough? memory + puzzle solving IN THE COLD *brrr*
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Offline Caelestor

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I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.
I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I though TAR12 was tricky enough? memory + puzzle solving IN THE COLD *brrr*

TAR 12 was very tricky too. But TAR 14 had hundreds of surfboards and confounded pretty much all the teams remaining.
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Offline SuzuKen

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TAR 12 was very tricky too. But TAR 14 had hundreds of surfboards and confounded pretty much all the teams remaining.

 :groan: forgot that aspect of it. those memory tasks sure were challenging!

Guess TAR16 would be remembered as having some of the easiest tasks ever... First the coin tossing (non-)speed bump practically next door to the RB, and then the memory task.... they could have at least made it tougher by having psychedelic styled posters of SOMETHING from each leg (instead of just e eliminated teams & NELs) and mixing them in with other similar posters....
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Offline slayton

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TAR16 joins TAR4 and TAR11 as the only seasons to not have at least 2 of the top 3 performing teams in the final 3.

Offline slayton

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Other than being the worst performing winning team ever, Dan & Jordan are also the second-worst performing team to ever finish in the top 2.

Only Teri & Ian from TAR3, who are 53 combined years older, finished worse in the top 2 with a 4.5384.

Offline slayton

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Of the 48 teams to ever make the final 3, TAR16 has 2 teams tied for 43rd (or 44th) out of 48.

    16-01 Jordan-Daniel    52/12   4.3333   
    16-03 Brent-Caite    52/12   4.3333   
    03-02 Teri/Ian         59/13   4.5384
    06-03 Adam/Rebecca       61/13   4.6923
    10-03 Lyn/Karlyn      65/13   5.0000
    13-03 Andrew/Dan   57/11   5.1818   

Of the 64 teams to ever make the final 4, TAR16 has one team ranked 59th out of 64 and two teams tied for 57th (or 58th) out of 64.

    16-01 Jordan-Daniel    52/12   4.3333   
    16-03 Brent-Caite    52/12   4.3333   
    16-04 Louie-Michael   48/11   4.3636   
    03-02 Teri/Ian         59/13   4.5384
    06-03 Adam/Rebecca       61/13   4.6923
    10-03 Lyn/Karlyn      65/13   5.0000
    13-03 Andrew/Dan   57/11   5.1818   
    07-04 Meredith/Gretchen     59/11   5.3636


 

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