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Author Topic: Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams TAR 1-24 (current)  (Read 44660 times)

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Offline mswood

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They've had them before, and it with the performance of teams last week leaving the field rather far apart it did leave little room for improvement.  A little lift there, a little fall there.  Thats why I hope (and with this season who knows) we get departure times to give us a better idea of how teams actually performed.

I like to compare this to the Mika & Canaan meltdown episode last year.  In that episode (thanks to the fast forward on the previous leg) Meghan & Cheyne got first.  Yet when you actually look at the time it took to complete they were actually fourth a rather huge difference.

This leg actually really reminded me of leg 4 in season 12.  As it also was a leg with no equalizers and it also featured the very first U-Turn.  Unlike this season it was used for pure strategy, we aren't doing great we know one team is behind us lets use it on them.  Lorena & Jason being nearly two hours back had no chance.  I was honestly surprised that this wasn't used on Jordan and Jeff as a way to really sink them.  As it stands I can't believe that with over a two hour difference (from the start) an extra task and their inability to get from point A to B that Joe and Heidi could not make up that in one Detour.  I mean seriously this had to take Joe & Heidi at least 3 to 4 hours (at least before getting Phil).  Just an insane amount of time to complete a task. (and they didn't do that).


Offline georgiapeach

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Careful here about spoilers...this is a discussion thread. :kuss:
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

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Offline theschnauzers

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Team      This Week   Week 5      Week 4      Week 3      Week 2      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.6666   16/6   2.4000   12/5   (2.2500)   (1.6666)   (2.0000)   Stable
Steve-Allison   3.3333   20/6   3.4000   17/5   (4.7500)   (4.3333)   (5.5000)   Stable
Carol-Brandy   4.0000   24/6   4.4000   22/5   (4.2500)   (4.0000)   (4.5000)   Stable
Louie-Michael   4.8333   29/6   5.6000   28/5   (6.7500)   (8.3333)   (9.0000)   Rising Sharply
Brent-Caite    6.1666   37/6   6.2000   31/5   (6.2500)   (6.0000)   (5.5000)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    6.1666   37/6   6.4000   32/5   (7.0000)   (7.3333)   (8.0000)   Rising

Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1

The six remaining teams stayed in the same order as last week, and with Jeff-Jordan's elimination in France, the teams are fairly evenly spaced, except for the equal score for Brent-Caite and Dan-Jordan. The rise for Louie-Michael may be less impressive than it looks. Their lead leaving the pit stop wasn't that large, and they had problems with the tasks that offset their speed in navigation. Carol-Brandy also had very few problems in navigation, and fewer problems in the tasks. Steve-Allie lost some time due to the damaged bumper, and I'll bet that they didn't lose more than 15 minutes due to the duct tape. Jet-Cord had their navigation problems because they waited too long to check for the winery location, but they are quick to recover though. And there isn't much question any longer that the two of them are very efficient with tasks. Needle0in-a-haystack are not a problem. I'll bet they won't assume they know where a riddled location is after this week. (I love the fact that this week's clues mostly required teams to ask locals for assistance over and over and over.)
-- theschnauzers

Offline slayton

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Thanks for your calculations, theschnauzers.

I just wanted to add my own best-case scenario projections.

Projected average placement for each team if that team ends up running the table on a 12-leg race:
  • Jet & Cord         1.8333 (22/12)
  • Steve & Allie      2.1666 (26/12)
  • Carol & Brandy  2.5000 (30/12)
  • Louie & Michael  2.9166 (35/12)
  • Brent & Caite    3.5833 (43/12)
  • Dan & Jordan    3.5833 (43/12)

No team in TAR16 will beat Eric & Jeremy's performance.

Offline slayton

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theschnauzers, I noticed that Gary/Matt are listed as 15-04 instead of 15-05.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2010, 06:54:33 PM by slayton »


Offline theschnauzers

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theschnauzers, I noticed that Gary/Matt are listed as 15-04 instead of 15-05.
Fixed.
Quote
Projected average placement for each team if that team ends up running the table on a 12-leg race:

I think it's more useful to look at the range from the best possible average to the worse possible average and still complete the Race (all 12 legs).

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 6 placement points for 6 remaining legs, and 26 placement points for worse possible performance is (6-5-5-4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and three more eliminations, 2 NELs and final leg)

Jet-Cord   2.6666   16/6
      22/12-42/12
Predicted range (1.8333 to 3.6666) Note if J-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.5000.

Steve-Allison   3.3333   20/6
      26/12-46/12
Predicted range (2.1666 to 3.8333) Note if S-A were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.6666.

Carol-Brandy   4.0000   24/6
      30/12-50/12
Predicted range (2.5000 to 4.1666) Note if C-B were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.0000.

Louie-Michael   4.8333   29/6
      35/12-55/12
Predicted range (2.9166 to 4.5833) Note if L-M were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166

Brent-Caite    6.1666   37/6
      43/12-63/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if B-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833

Jordan-Daniel    6.1666   37/6
      43/12-63/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if J-Dwere to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833


What this tells us:
Although Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite are just below the worst previous final three performance “threshold.” but only by .06 of a placement value, all of the remaining teams have a statistical chance of making final three.
Based on the past trends, all of the teams have at least a slight chance of winning....but Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite have the least chance.... but it's close to no chance.

Jet-Cord have the best chance of winning, and they’re just this close to becoming prohibitive favorites, based on the trend from past seasons. While they can’t surpass Eric-Jeremy, they still can become the second best performing team, (TAR 15 winners Meghan-Cheyne were 2.0000.)

Thanks for the distraction. (My schnauzer unexpectedly took ill Tuesday night last week and then, passed away last Thursday morning with no warning, and it's been a very difficult week. I need to find and adopt another schnauzer (as they've been companions and service animals for me for 30 years, and this week is the first time in that time I haven't had one with me.)


« Last Edit: March 25, 2010, 10:50:18 PM by theschnauzers »
-- theschnauzers

Offline georgiapeach

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I am so, so sorry about your schnauzer. Pets are family, and leave a huge hole in our lives when they go. Please know you have our sympathy for your loss.
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline slayton

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You have my deepest sympathies.

I was adding up the average placements for each season's final 4 by using your numbers and Uchenna & Joyce appear twice for TAR7.
      
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce     35/12   2.9166
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce    41/13   3.1538

Here are my calculations for the sum of the average placements of each season's final 4, based on numbers by theschnauzers, in order from lowest-total to highest-total:

I just added them all up.

01-01 Rob/Brennan        32/13   2.4615
01-02 Frank/Margarita      31/13   2.3846
01-03 Joe/Bill         36/13   2.7692
01-04 Kevin/Drew         37/11   3.3636
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 10.9789

09-01 BJ/Tyler      32/13   2.4615
09-02 Eric/Jeremy   22/13   1.6923
09-03 Ray/Yolanda   55/13   4.2307
09-04 Joseph/Monica   42/11   3.8181
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.2027

15-01 Meghan/Cheyne   24/12   2.0000
15-02 Sam/Dan      38/12   3.1666
15-03 Brian/Ericka   51/12   4.2500
15-04 Flight Time/Big Easy   34/11   3.0909
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.5075

08-01 Linz         31/11   2.8181
08-02 Bransen      35/11   3.1818
08-03 Weaver      36/11   3.2727
08-04 Godlewski      37/10   3.7000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.9727

03-01 Flo/Zach         35/13   2.6923
03-02 Teri/Ian         59/13   4.5384
03-03 Ken/Gerard         35/13   2.6923
03-04 Derek/Drew         34/11   3.0909
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.0139

14-01 Tammy/Victor   27/12   2.2500
14-02 Cara/Jaime      47/12   3.9166
14-03 Margie/Luke   33/12   2.7500
14-04 Kisha/Jen      47/11   4.2727
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.1893

05-01 Chip/Kim         44/13   3.3846
05-02 Colin/Christie      32/13   2.4615
05-03 Brandon/Nicole      43/13   3.3076
05-04 Linda/Karen        50/12   4.1666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3204

11-01 Eric/Danielle    47/13   3.6153
11-02 Dustin/Kandice     38/13   2.9230
11-03 Charla/Mirna     54/13   4.1538
11-04 Oswald/Danny      32/12   2.6666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3589

13-01 Nick/Starr      27/11   2.4545
13-02 Ken/Tina      29/11   2.6363
13-03 Andrew/Dan   57/11   5.1818  
13-04 Toni/Dallas      31/10   3.1000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3727

06-01 Freddy/Kendra      45/13   3.4615
06-02 Kris/Jon        31/13   2.3846
06-03 Adam/Rebecca       61/13   4.6923
06-04 Hayden/Aaron      35/12   2.9166
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.4550

10-01 Tyler/James    31/13   2.3846
10-02 Rob/Kimberly   39/13   3.0000
10-03 Lyn/Karlyn      65/13   5.0000
10-04 Dustin/Kandice     38/12    3.1666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.5512

02-01 Chris/Alex         44/13   3.3846
02-02 Tara/Wil         33/13   2.5384
02-03 Blake/Paige        48/13   3.6923
02-04 Oswald/Danny       44/11   4.0000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.6153

07-01 Uchenna/Joyce    41/13   3.1538
07-02 Rob/Amber    30/13   2.3076
07-03 Ron/Kelly       39/13   3.0000
07-04 Meredith/Gretchen     59/11   5.3636
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.8251

12-01 Rachel/TK       35/11   3.1818
12-02 Ronald/Christina    38/11   3.4545
12-03 Nicolas/Donald   46/11   4.1818
12-04 Jennifer/Nathan   37/10   3.7000  
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 14.5181

04-01 Reichen/Chip      40/13   3.0769
04-02 Kelly/Jon         50/13   3.8461
04-03 David/Jeff         52/13   4.0000
04-04 Jon/Al              41/11   3.7272
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 14.6502


I'll add the sums for each season's final 3 next.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2010, 10:54:05 PM by slayton »

Offline theschnauzers

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07-01 Uchenna/Joyce     35/12   2.9166
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce    41/13   3.1538

The set with 13 legs would be correct, I must have missed the 12 leg one when I fixed the list some weeks ago.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2010, 10:51:55 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline slayton

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« Last Edit: March 16, 2013, 10:07:58 PM by slayton »


Offline theschnauzers

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I'm not exactly sure what the point of adding up the final three or four teams is supposed to demonstrate. One point to consider is that the higher the total is for a top three or four grouping, it could mean a more competitive group with no one or two dominating teams, or that on the other hand, the group is not as strong as another season's final three or four. The total doesn't really show one interpretation or the other, it's at that point the issue becomes a subjective one. If there's something I'm missing in this please tell us.

Oh, and on the subject of fast forwards, those aren't likely to have much of an impact for two different reasons, as I see it. In the early seasons, there was a point before the final three, or four, when all the remaining teams ended up having used the fast forwards, and thus, neutralized their impact. It was rare for a team not to claim first place on a FF (especially the Guidos spectacular fumble in season one) in the early seasons when the FF was available on all but the final leg. When the FF availability was reduced, to one or two a season, then while one team might have save a few placement points over where they might have otherwise placed, it no longer got used as a general rule by trailing teams, but by teams in the lead, if at all. That likewise had a minor impact on season-wide placement averages. While the precise average was affected, it certainly didn't affect relative placements in a broad sense.

And I'll note that over the history of the Race, about half of all available FFs were not claimed; and that's true of the early seasons (1-4) and the more recent seasons since then as well.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2010, 04:07:35 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline slayton

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I decided to add up the final 3 and final 4 just to see what the results would be.

I agree that they don't provide much objective information.

Offline TARAsia Fan

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So sorry for your loss, theschnauzers. Losing a beloved pet who's been part of the family is never easy.
Just here to visit.

Offline mswood

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My sympathy's my dogs are a huge part of my family.

Offline theschnauzers

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Here's the trends for week 7:

Team      This Week         Week 6      Week 5      Week 4      Trend
Jet-Cord   3.1428   22/7   (2.6666)      (2.4000)      (2.2500)   Falling
Steve-Allison   3.0000   21/7      (3.3333)      (3.4000)      (4.7500)   Rising
Carol-Brandy   4.1428   29/7   (4.0000)      (4.4000)      (4.2500)   Stable
Louie-Michael   4.7142   33/7   (4.8333)      (5.6000)      (6.7500)   Stable
Jordan-Daniel    5.5714   39/7   (6.1666)      (6.4000)      (7.0000)   Rising
Brent-Caite    5.7142   40/7   (6.1666)      (6.2000)      (6.2500)   Rising Slowly


Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1
« Last Edit: March 29, 2010, 11:28:44 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline Caelestor

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Dan/Jordan are becoming more competent every week.  :tup:
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Offline Hooky

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Steve & Allie are now the strongest team by average placing! But there isn't really a dominant team this season. :wohoo:

Offline theschnauzers

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Here's an updated projection of final placement ranges for the teams after leg 7:

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 5 placement points for 5 remaining legs, and 20 placement points for worse possible performance is (5-5-4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and three more eliminations, 1 NEL and final leg)

Jet-Cord   3.1428   22/7
      27/12-42/12
Predicted range (2.2500 to 3.5000)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.3333.

Steve-Allison   3.0000   21/7
      26/12-41/12
Predicted range (2.1666 to 3.4133)
Note if S-A were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.2500.

Carol-Brandy   4.1428   29/7
      34/12-49/12
Predicted range (2.8333 to 4.0833)
Note if C-B were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.9133.

Louie-Michael   4.7142   33/7
      38/12-53/12
Predicted range (3.1666 to 4.4166)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.1666

Brent-Caite    5.7142   40/7
      45/12-60/12
Predicted range (3.7500 to 5.0000)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.8333

Jordan-Daniel    5.5714   39/7
      44/12-59/12
Predicted range (3.6666 to 4.9133)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.7500


What this tells us:
With the “first is last, last is first” outcome in leg 7, all of the teams are now projected to be above the worse performing final three threshold.
Two teams are above the first place threshold even at the highest end of their projected range, while two other teams have prediction ranges that are outside of the first place threshold.

-- theschnauzers

Offline WalterC

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Reading this thread, it's like debating who the best quarterback of all-time is. Very interesting!

Offline theschnauzers

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Team      This Week   Week 7      Week 6      Week 5      Trend
Jet-Cord   2.8750   23/8   (3.1428)   (2.6666)   (2.4000)   Stable
Carol-Brandy   3.8750   31/8   (4.1428)   (4.0000)   (4.4000)   Rising Slowly
Louie-Michael   4.5000   36/8   (4.7142)   (4.8333)   (5.6000)   Rising Slowly

Jordan-Daniel    5.5000   44/8   (5.5714)   (6.1666)   (6.4000)   Rising
Brent-Caite    5.5000   44/8   (5.7142)   (6.1666)   (6.2000)   Rising Slowly

Steve-Allison   3.3750   27/8
Jeff-Jordan   5.6666   34/6
Joseph-Heidi    4.4000   22/5   
Monique-Shawne 5.3333   16/3
Jody-Shannon    10.0000   20/2
Adrian-Dana    11.0000   11/1   
-- theschnauzers

Offline theschnauzers

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I'm seriously having a tough time right now, especially without a schnauzer and badly needing to find one to adopt. I've got a lot going on, and losing that sweet Edie hasn't helped. I've had a really hard time sleeping and the weather here (20 degrees above normal, and pine pollen everywhere) is not helping.

Anyhow, I finally got to updating the projections, and here they are.

Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 4 placement points for 4 remaining legs, and 17 placement points for worse possible performance is (5-5-4-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and two more eliminations, 1 NEL and final leg)

Jet-Cord   2.8750   23/8
      27/12-40/12
Predicted range (2.2500 to 3.3333)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.1666.

Carol-Brandy   3.8750   31/8
      35/12-48/12
Predicted range (2.9133 to 4.0000)
Note if C-B were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.8333.

Louie-Michael   4.5000   36/8
      40/12-53/12
Predicted range (3.3333 to 4.4166)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.2500

Brent-Caite    5.5000   44/8
      48/12-61/12
Predicted range (4.0000 to 5.0866)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.9133

Jordan-Daniel    5.5000   44/8
      48/12-61/12
Predicted range (4.0000 to 5.0866)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.9133


What this tells us:
With four legs remaining, Jet-Cord have become the favorites, now, with Steve-Allie out of the Race. Carol-Brandy have a decent chance with the three other remaining teams steadily moving out of range to win, but still have a decent chance for Final 3.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2010, 11:12:54 PM by theschnauzers »
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Offline everbloom

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At the rate this is going, it's most likely either the cowboys really win this thing, or a team will top Eric and Danielle for worst team to ever win based on performance.
TAR 17:
Brook/Claire, Nat/Kat, Jill/Thomas

TARA 4
Richard/Richard, Claire/Michelle, Dimple/Sunaina

OMG!! I finally found the cowboys' Facebook fan page!![/url]

Offline Dånooky

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What I like of this season so far is that the leader board is much harder to predict than Season 4 :lol:
The story so far:
In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move

Offline everbloom

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True. What with a complete reversal of finishes and inconsistent teams!

By the way, is it just me who noticed Carol/Brandy's alternating finishes between 2nd and 5th?
TAR 17:
Brook/Claire, Nat/Kat, Jill/Thomas

TARA 4
Richard/Richard, Claire/Michelle, Dimple/Sunaina

OMG!! I finally found the cowboys' Facebook fan page!![/url]

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    • My LDS Mission Blog
What I like of this season so far is that the leader board is much harder to predict than Season 4 :lol:

1st, 9th, 1st, 9th. Enough said. :lol:


 

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