theschnauzers, I noticed that Gary/Matt are listed as 15-04 instead of 15-05.
Projected average placement for each team if that team ends up running the table on a 12-leg race:
I think it's more useful to look at the range from the best possible average to the worse possible average and still complete the Race (all 12 legs).
Lowest Placement for a final three team
Lowest Placement by winning team
Assuming best remaining performances are 6 placement points for 6 remaining legs, and 26 placement points for worse possible performance is (6-5-5-4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and three more eliminations, 2 NELs and final leg)
Jet-Cord 2.6666 16/6
Predicted range (1.8333 to 3.6666) Note if J-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.5000.
Steve-Allison 3.3333 20/6
Predicted range (2.1666 to 3.8333) Note if S-A were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.6666.
Carol-Brandy 4.0000 24/6
Predicted range (2.5000 to 4.1666) Note if C-B were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.0000.
Louie-Michael 4.8333 29/6
Predicted range (2.9166 to 4.5833) Note if L-M were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166
Brent-Caite 6.1666 37/6
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if B-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833
Jordan-Daniel 6.1666 37/6
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if J-Dwere to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833
What this tells us:
Although Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite are just below the worst previous final three performance “threshold.” but only by .06 of a placement value, all of the remaining teams have a statistical chance of making final three.
Based on the past trends, all of the teams have at least a slight chance of winning....but Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite have the least chance.... but it's close to no chance.
Jet-Cord have the best chance of winning, and they’re just this close to becoming prohibitive favorites, based on the trend from past seasons. While they can’t surpass Eric-Jeremy, they still can become the second best performing team, (TAR 15 winners Meghan-Cheyne were 2.0000.)
Thanks for the distraction. (My schnauzer unexpectedly took ill Tuesday night last week and then, passed away last Thursday morning with no warning, and it's been a very difficult week. I need to find and adopt another schnauzer (as they've been companions and service animals for me for 30 years, and this week is the first time in that time I haven't had one with me.)