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Author Topic: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*  (Read 126397 times)

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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #750 on: January 15, 2010, 04:53:13 PM »
Support crews alone won't have red/yellow flags, but the advance guard (who generally arrive in the leg location some days ahead of the racers) could be meeting the plane/racers...

I agree re the tweets, we have no proof, but darn it is a good story. :lol:
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #751 on: January 15, 2010, 10:49:14 PM »
what if the paper was mistaken and Germany wasn't exactly right after Bariloche?

or, what if they were delibirately mislead to think Germany was the next spot to throw people off?

either could easily happen and could very much explain why we have both a Paraguay "sighting" and Germany "leads" at the same time
« Last Edit: January 16, 2010, 12:25:13 AM by DavidJunior »

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Offline racer

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #752 on: January 15, 2010, 11:59:17 PM »
what if the paper was mistaken and Germany wasn't exactly right after Bariloche?

or, what if they were delibirately mislead to think Germany was the next spot to throw people off?

either could easily happen and could very much explain why we have both a Paraguay "sighting" and Germany "spoilers" at the same time
I think you're right! :yess:
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #753 on: January 16, 2010, 06:22:24 AM »
The Dijibouti source has added this:

Quote
Hussein Ali
Milton, Canada
  15 hrs ago
These pics are not allowing me to copy on to my email so ill go ahead and say what is on them. Teams (one all male team) running into the Stade du ville. 


I hope we DO get that photo to see...until then this remains "interesting" but still only one person saying he knows something, cannot be truly confirmed yet.

File photo of the Dijibouti Stadium:

http://www.worldstadiums.com/stadium_pictures/africa/djibouti/djibouti_ville.shtml
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Offline mjriches2005

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #754 on: January 16, 2010, 10:22:44 AM »
what if the paper was mistaken and Germany wasn't exactly right after Bariloche?

or, what if they were delibirately mislead to think Germany was the next spot to throw people off?

either could easily happen and could very much explain why we have both a Paraguay "sighting" and Germany "leads" at the same time

This sounds very similar to Season12 when they said "2 new African countries"


Offline Hooky

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #755 on: January 16, 2010, 01:34:55 PM »
This sounds very similar to Season 12 when they said "2 new African countries"

Well, that wasn't supposed to be misleading. It was just a good ol' Bert van Munster error. :lol3:

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #756 on: January 16, 2010, 08:37:17 PM »
This sounds very similar to Season 12 when they said "2 new African countries"

Well, that wasn't supposed to be misleading. It was just a good ol' Bert van Munster error. :lol3:


BVM knew they were going to Burkina and Faso that year.
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #757 on: January 17, 2010, 03:30:19 PM »
This sounds very similar to Season 12 when they said "2 new African countries"

Well, that wasn't supposed to be misleading. It was just a good ol' Bert van Munster error. :lol3:


BVM knew they were going to Burkina and Faso that year.
No, they only went to Burkina!
 :lol3:

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #758 on: January 17, 2010, 05:34:19 PM »
This sounds very similar to Season 12 when they said "2 new African countries"

Well, that wasn't supposed to be misleading. It was just a good ol' Bert van Munster error. :lol3:


BVM knew they were going to Burkina and Faso that year.
No, they only went to Burkina!
 :lol3:
And he thought Lithuania was Liberia :WTF, Croatia was Cote D'Ivoire :notme:, Netherlands was Nigeria :noway:, Taiwan was Tanzania :naughty: and the Republic of Ireland was the Republic of Congo :spell! All of a sudden, it's all Africa! (:;) :idgit
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Offline woden

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #759 on: January 17, 2010, 08:06:31 PM »
IF we have Germany...if we have Asuncion, then we don't have Germany if I am looking at the Timeline infocorrectly...so where then?? :duno:

I need to go back to all the original posts and take another look at Germany though... or maybe WODEN can help us out here??

I don't have anything new to add, but I do think it's possible to have Paraguay and Germany. My theory (which is spec) is that the Argentina production staff could very well have been on the way to Germany (per the Argentine article) while the teams went on to Paraguay, where a different production staff was waiting. We know that staffs rotate throughout the season, so...  :duno:

If I were making a guess, I like the Paraguay story. But five SA legs, wow.


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #760 on: January 17, 2010, 08:20:39 PM »
Thanks woden!! :hearts: That does help!!
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Offline Chateau d If

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #761 on: January 18, 2010, 12:17:52 AM »
IF we have Germany...if we have Asuncion, then we don't have Germany if I am looking at the Timeline infocorrectly...so where then?? :duno:

I need to go back to all the original posts and take another look at Germany though... or maybe WODEN can help us out here??

I don't have anything new to add, but I do think it's possible to have Paraguay and Germany. My theory (which is spec) is that the Argentina production staff could very well have been on the way to Germany (per the Argentine article) while the teams went on to Paraguay, where a different production staff was waiting. We know that staffs rotate throughout the season, so...  :duno:

If I were making a guess, I like the Paraguay story. But five SA legs, wow.

But what about the Hoopties?   :duno:  That means the racers went in-country.
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #762 on: January 18, 2010, 06:49:48 AM »


If I were making a guess, I like the Paraguay story. But five SA legs, wow.

But what about the Hoopties?   :duno:  That means the racers went in-country.

I just get a headache trying to decypher these events from the megar clues. I try to incorporate Neobie's ideas of trying to get Phil ahead to do his standups, the periodical long pit stops to give racers, crew and production time to rest up, and the flip flopping of the production teams.

If in fact the Paraquay tweet is true, then the use of jalopies, means they are heading out of town and into areas where they were probably not observed by people willing to post about it or people unable to post about it.

I have spent a lot of time the last 12 years in South America and have a lot of close friends here, where I live, from the Brasilian German community. I have shown them the reporter's story and all have said they are 99.9% sure it means Germany, not "new Germany" in Paraguay. So I am thinking like woden, probably the production crew that the reporter talked to was heading to Germany, with one already in some other place.

Tar14 did 7 legs in Asia and 3 in Europe, so seems like BVM is into spending a lot of time in one place these days, so 5 legs in SA wouldnt surprise me that much either. TAR15 was 6 in Asia, 5 in Europe and 1 in US. So for TAR16, 5 in SA, 1 in Europe, 1/2 in Djibouti,Africa and 3/4 in Aisa and finale back in US fits well for me for TAR16. Hard to tell, unless we get more data.
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Offline woden

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #763 on: January 18, 2010, 08:46:42 AM »
But what about the Hoopties?   :duno:  That means the racers went in-country.

Right. I'm saying there could be a Paraguay leg AND a Germany leg. They are not mutually exclusive.

The production team that worked the Argentina leg(s) would go ahead to Germany to set up there. This could be why someone in Bariloche caught wind of the race going there next.

However, since production teams rotate, there could have been staff waiting in Paraguay to film a leg there.

Something like this:

EP01: LA to Valpo, Chile (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP02: Valpo, Chile to Puerto Varas, Chile (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP03: Puerto Varas, Chile to Bariloche, Argentina (PRODUCTION TEAM B works leg, then flies to Germany to set up)
EP04: Bariloche, Argentina to UNKNOWN (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP05: UNKNOWN to Asuncion, Paraguay (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP06: Asuncion, Paraguay to Frankfurt, Germany (PRODUCTION TEAM B works leg)

See what I mean, Chateau?

BTW, the route above is still spec -- we don't have hard evidence for either Paraguay or Germany.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2010, 11:27:05 AM by woden »

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #764 on: January 18, 2010, 11:49:12 AM »
That looks really good!  I think I misread your earlier post.  I was in a hurry!   :lol:
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Offline north09

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #765 on: January 18, 2010, 01:46:40 PM »
But what about the Hoopties?   :duno:  That means the racers went in-country.

Right. I'm saying there could be a Paraguay leg AND a Germany leg. They are not mutually exclusive.

The production team that worked the Argentina leg(s) would go ahead to Germany to set up there. This could be why someone in Bariloche caught wind of the race going there next.

However, since production teams rotate, there could have been staff waiting in Paraguay to film a leg there.

Something like this:

EP01: LA to Valpo, Chile (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP02: Valpo, Chile to Puerto Montt, Chile (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP03: Puerto Montt, Chile to Bariloche, Argentina (PRODUCTION TEAM B works leg, then flies to Germany to set up)
EP04: Bariloche, Argentina to UNKNOWN (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP05: UNKNOWN to Asuncion, Paraguay (PRODUCTION TEAM A works leg)
EP06: Asuncion, Paraguay to Frankfurt, Germany (PRODUCTION TEAM B works leg)

See what I mean, Chateau?

BTW, the route above is still spec -- we don't have hard evidence for either Paraguay or Germany.

I was thinking our rour may look like this, with Germany comming a leg earlier if they do go there.

Leg 1: Los Angeles, California to Valparaiso, Chile
Leg 2: Valparaiso, Chile to Puerto Varas, Chile
Leg 3: Puerto Varas, Chile to Bariloche, Argentina
Leg 4: Bariloche, Argentina to Asuncion, Paraguay
Leg 5: Asuncion, Paraguay to Frankfurt, Germany
Leg 6: Frankfurt, Germany to Djibouti, Djibouti
Leg 7: Djibouti, Djibouti
Leg 8: Djibouti, Djibouti to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Leg 9: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to Penang, Malaysia
Leg 10: Penang, Malaysia to Sentosa, Singapore
Leg 11: Sentosa, Singapore to Shanghai, China
Leg 12: Shanghai, China to San Francisco, California

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #766 on: January 18, 2010, 02:16:26 PM »
I would love for Dijibouti to be a real location... and hope it is.

But unless and until we get pics or some specific info, I think it has to remain serious spec only. So far we still have no concrete proof...like Germany. :(


But we'll keep the hope alive!!
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Offline DrRox

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #767 on: January 18, 2010, 02:58:07 PM »
I would love for Dijibouti to be a real location... and hope it is.

But unless and until we get pics or some specific info, I think it has to remain serious spec only. So far we still have no concrete proof...like Germany. :(


But we'll keep the hope alive!!


This just might be like TAR14 when they disappeared into Siberia. We may not really know where they went till BVM releases the route map. And my comments were spec only.
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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #768 on: January 18, 2010, 06:40:07 PM »
What if the Germany and Africa legs were done late at night? Because of the Muslim hajj flights between Europe and Africa might have been affected, and they could have done the legs late at night, assuming no hours of operation. There would be less people around also. If i remember correctly, that was the reason why Joe and Bill and Eric and Danielle were so far behind in All-Stars.

For the Germany legs, maybe it was done midnight/early morning. But it doesn't explain why no hotel/airport sightings.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #769 on: January 18, 2010, 08:37:36 PM »
I just want to make one observation.  Ever since TAR 12, the structure of the route has changed in consistent ways from earlier seasons. We now have a pattern with 11-12 legs, rather than 12-13 (and I'm not counting the uberlegs as seprate legs in this comparison).
In the recent Races, there has been a consistent pattern of two or three cities where there are double legs. In the earlier seasons , two legs in a country didn't always mean two legs in the same city or metropolitan  area. And it appears the remaining legs are often a grouped together so that several proximate countries are plotted out in each continent/area the route goes through. I'm sure it may be stating the obvious, but my point is that there really is a change since Race 12 as compared to the Races prior to that one.
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Offline Caelestor

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #770 on: January 18, 2010, 11:51:19 PM »
I just want to make one observation.  Ever since TAR 12, the structure of the route has changed in consistent ways from earlier seasons. We now have a pattern with 11-12 legs, rather than 12-13 (and I'm not counting the uberlegs as seprate legs in this comparison).
In the recent Races, there has been a consistent pattern of two or three cities where there are double legs. In the earlier seasons , two legs in a country didn't always mean two legs in the same city or metropolitan  area. And it appears the remaining legs are often a grouped together so that several proximate countries are plotted out in each continent/area the route goes through. I'm sure it may be stating the obvious, but my point is that there really is a change since Race 12 as compared to the Races prior to that one.

Actually, TAR 12 did not stay in the same city for one leg (they went out to the country and back into the capital during the Burkino Faso legs). TAR 14 only stayed in Beijing due to the TBC. TAR 13 stayed in Delhi and Moscow, and TAR 15 stayed in Dubai and Prague for 2 legs each.

A far more visible trend that really started in TAR 13 is the fact that 3 countries host more than 1 leg:

TAR 13: Brazil, India, Russia.
TAR 14: Russia, Thailand, China.
TAR 15: Vietnam, Dubai, Czech Republic.

We know that Chile has 2 legs for TAR 16. That leaves 2 more unaccounted for.

Furthermore, the last city (Moscow, Beijing, Prague) has held 2 legs.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2010, 05:45:06 PM by Caelestor »
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Offline Cocoa

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #771 on: January 19, 2010, 06:13:49 AM »

We know that Chile has 2 legs for TAR 16. That leaves 2 more unaccounted for.

Well Malaysia *could* be one too, one in KM and in Penang. (Blissful Spec)

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #772 on: January 19, 2010, 01:10:15 PM »
A far more visible trend that really started in TAR 13 is the fact that 3 countries host more than 1 leg:

TAR 13: Brazil, India, Russia.
TAR 14: Russia, Thailand, China.
TAR 15: Vietnam, Dubai, Czech Republic.

We know that Chile has 2 legs for TAR 16. That leaves 2 more unaccounted for.

The two legs in Djibouti and Malaysia speculated by north09 fit well with this trend. I think that route is a distinct possibility.

Offline woden

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #773 on: January 19, 2010, 02:05:48 PM »
I just want to make one observation.  Ever since TAR 12, the structure of the route has changed in consistent ways from earlier seasons. We now have a pattern with 11-12 legs, rather than 12-13 (and I'm not counting the uberlegs as seprate legs in this comparison).
In the recent Races, there has been a consistent pattern of two or three cities where there are double legs. In the earlier seasons , two legs in a country didn't always mean two legs in the same city or metropolitan  area. And it appears the remaining legs are often a grouped together so that several proximate countries are plotted out in each continent/area the route goes through. I'm sure it may be stating the obvious, but my point is that there really is a change since Race 12 as compared to the Races prior to that one.

Actually, TAR 12 did not stay in the same city for one leg (they went out to the country and back into the capital during the Burkino Faso legs). TAR 14 only stayed in Beijing due to the TBC. TAR 13 stayed in Delhi and Moscow, and TAR 15 stayed in Dubai and Prague for 2 legs each.

A far more visible trend that really started in TAR 13 is the fact that 3 countries host more than 1 leg:

TAR 13: Brazil, India, Russia.
TAR 14: Russia, Thailand, China.
TAR 15: Vietnam, Dubai, Czech Republic.

We know that Chile has 2 legs for TAR 16. That leaves 2 more unaccounted for.

Argentina seems a distinct possibility for 2 legs as well.

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Re: Speculation on TAR16 *no wish-lists please*
« Reply #774 on: January 19, 2010, 03:29:40 PM »
Argentina is more than a possibility. It is a high probability. To do 5 legs in South America, #3 will be in Bariloche and #4 could be anywhere but the most likely is in the Buenos Aires metro area.

I have speculated that there will be 2 legs in Penang to make an 11 leg race with known pit stops; it happens there is no Germany and no 2nd leg in Djibouti. I think the odds are slightly less than even that a 12th leg might be in either Germany or Djibouti 2.


 

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