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Author Topic: TAR 16 Timeline Thread  (Read 98188 times)

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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #175 on: February 20, 2010, 09:04:05 AM »
Precisely who is stating no Liverpool? Certainly not me, as I think Liverpool is highly probable as a leg. Somebody has hypothesized 3 European legs. Tha allows for Hamburg, Liverpool and France WWI battlefield.

Also, I think Phil rushing to get to whichever of those is first is not going to happen. He will get there, but probably not until Dec. 6. Remember that an extended pit stop is likely in Bariloche before teams go go into the Northern Hemisphere for a very cold winter.


Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #176 on: February 20, 2010, 09:10:04 AM »
Precisely who is stating no Liverpool? Somebody has hypothesized 3 European legs. Tha allows for Hamburg, Liverpool and France WWI battlefield.

Also, I think Phil rushing to get to whichever of those is first is not going to happen. He will get there, but probably not until Dec. 3. Remeber that an extended pit stop is likely in Bariloche befre teams go go into the Northern Hemisphere for a very cold winter.

Liverpool OR Hamburg, since the CBS press release declares eight countries, if excluding the USA.

Phil will most definitely not be able to get to Europe before Dec 4. If the Bariloche leg ends on the afternoon of the 2nd, he'd only be able to make it to Buenos Aires late that night, and there are no flights from South America to Europe until the afternoon of the 3rd, arriving in Europe on the morning of the 4th. I agree that teams are very likely going to be held back longer than 12h, not because of the weather, but because they'd end up on the same flight as Phil into Europe otherwise.

Edited to add: 8 teams flying from Bariloche to Hamburg at the right timing will result in absolute chaos, unless TPTB spoils all the fun and forces them through the same airports. I've been looking at the best flight for Phil on the evening of the 2nd, and I have him (if he really wanted the absolute fastest route) flying to Buenos Aires, switching airports, then onward to Sao Paulo and Munich before arriving in Hamburg.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2010, 09:21:16 AM by Neobie »
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AmazingDT

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #177 on: February 20, 2010, 12:47:12 PM »
please delete
« Last Edit: February 20, 2010, 11:24:06 PM by AmazingDT »

Offline Caelestor

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #178 on: February 21, 2010, 12:43:50 AM »
Who said Hamburg had to be the first of the German legs?
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #179 on: February 21, 2010, 01:43:59 AM »
Who says there are 2 legs in Germany?? :lol:
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #180 on: February 21, 2010, 08:44:23 PM »
Just for record's sake. Right on schedule with the timings, this leg took place from 30 Nov to 1 Dec, with the action taking place on the latter date.

Bus to Temuco (0915-1815), then to Puerto Montt (1900-0045)
Jet/Cord
Bus to Puerto Montt (1730-0600)
Joe/Heidi, Carol/Brandy
Bus to Temuco (0915-1815), then to Puerto Montt (0100-0645)
Brent/Caite, Jeff/Jordan
Bus to Puerto Montt (1945-0815)
Dan/Jordan, Monique/Shawne, Louie/Michael, Steve/Allie
Bus to Puerto Montt (2030-0840)
Jody/Shannon
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Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #181 on: February 22, 2010, 02:20:10 AM »
I'm not sure if it was editing or just a mistake on Shannon's part, but she said "8:30" and the monitor presented 19:15. Anyway, it's a calendar confirmation.

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #182 on: February 22, 2010, 04:30:55 PM »
It's a huge pity that Jody/Shannon didn't bother to look for connecting buses knowing they were at the back. There was a bus that left Santiago at 1.30pm that could have got them into Temuco at 10.30pm, with three hours of slack to catch the 1.30am bus to Puerto Varas the couples got on...

And they arrived in Santiago at 7.30am! What were they thinking? :groan:
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #183 on: February 26, 2010, 01:57:59 AM »
Just in case these are helpful...(thanks for the reminder Slowhatch!!)

Episode 1 special thanks


Episode 2 special thanks
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #184 on: February 26, 2010, 07:35:28 AM »
Thanks Peach! Ah, looks like teams were made to take the Ascensor Conception as well, just before the paint task - that could somewhat explain Brent/Caite's move. They probably took the second ascensor, thinking that fulfilled the requirement, but skipping the earlier Ascensor Villaseca down their first hill.
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #185 on: February 28, 2010, 11:09:38 PM »
A night leg in Hamburg, with Jet/Cord running around in broad daylight? Can we figure this one out?

Phil eliminated Monique/Shawne after sunset (9.03pm) on 2 Dec, which means he's missed the last flight out of Bariloche airport at 8.20pm. The earliest flight the next day to Buenos Aires doesn't leave until the late morning, and here's the fastest itinerary for him:
AR 1681 to Buenos Aires AEP: 1110 (3 Dec) - 1313
Transfer to Buenos Aires EZE
AF 417 to Paris: 1800 - 1100 (4 Dec)
AF 2210 to Hamburg: 1525 - 1655

This means he arrives after sunset (4.02pm), so I believe with a day for Phil to relax, the bulk of the teams don't start racing in Hamburg until the evening of the 5th. Note that all other teams checked in before sunset, meaning that if it were a 12h Pit Stop, pretty much every team would be on the same flight as Phil going into Hamburg.

But... is this a daylight shot?



If Jet/Cord, leaving first from the Pit Stop, miss all flights on 3 Dec, they would be best off taking the same itinerary as proposed above, arriving in Hamburg at the earliest at 4.55pm on 5 Dec. That has them arriving after sunset, which wouldn't give us a daytime shot, unless the leg stretches over to the next morning (I'd say unlikely)...

But if they took the last flight out of Bariloche on the 3rd, they'd be able to make this itinerary:
AR 2689 to Buenos Aires AEP: 2015 (3 Dec) - 2218
Transfer to Buenos Aires EZE
JJ 8003 to Sao Paulo: 0400 (4 Dec) - 0745
LH 505 to Munich: 1440 - 0520 (5 Dec)
LH 36 to Hamburg: 0635 - 0755

... Which gives the brothers a 9h lead. Is that at all possible?

ETA: Even if TPTB mandates entering Germany via Frankfurt, Jet/Cord would arrive in Hamburg at 11.15am over the next best flight arriving at 5.00pm. If TPTB mandates entering Germany in Hamburg, Jet/Cord could potentially arrive at 11.35am via London.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2010, 04:01:10 PM by Neobie »
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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #186 on: March 01, 2010, 01:19:32 AM »
I'd consider an iirregular length pit stop that gives Phil time to take a flight ahead of the teams, and see how much of a airport departure spread that would give the teams.
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #187 on: March 01, 2010, 04:36:45 AM »
If pressed. I would say that that photo looks like a little shaded lighted lamp on the bar, not daylight....
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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #188 on: March 01, 2010, 10:49:04 AM »
Looks like somewhat of a 12h Pit Stop in Puerto Varas? Jody/Shannon arrived the day before at 3.50pm, and we have Mike/Louie, who arrived not too far ahead of them, checking out at 3.12am. The cowboys started the previous leg in Petrohue at 7.30am and left Puerto Varas at 11.20pm, which fits closely with a 12h Pit Stop. Phil didn't give us the am/pm spiel though...

I'm going to back-pedal on Jet/Cord having an immense lead, if teams fly into Frankfurt to take a train to Hamburg. The first flight into Buenos Aires AEP arrives at 1.13pm and the last arrives at 10.23pm. The best options at any point in time from Buenos Aires EZE to Frankfurt are:
1520-1035 via Sao Paulo
1700-1325 via Madrid
1900-1400 via Sao Paulo
2150-1500 direct
2200-1755 via Madrid
2240-1920 via Madrid
2245-2010 via Rome

The only flight that arrives before sunset (after a train ride to Hamburg) is the first Sao Paulo flight, so if Jet/Cord do appear in the tavern before sunset, that's probably the one they're on. They'd still have at least a three hour lead entering Hamburg, though.

I believe Phil leaves Bariloche the morning of the 3rd, arriving on the afternoon of the 4th:
BRC-AEP (1110-1313), EZE-GRU (1520-1900), GRU-FRA (2005-1035), FRA-HAM (1220-1320)

And that teams leave Bariloche on the 4th after a ~40h Pit Stop (wow!), with Jet/Cord barely making the 11.10am flight, and all teams arriving in Hamburg late afternoon of the 5th after changing to the ICE train in Frankfurt.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2010, 05:50:54 PM by Neobie »
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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #189 on: March 01, 2010, 06:37:50 PM »
A 40  hour pit stop, much less a 36 hour pit stop is relative rare these days, but were quite common in the past. I have a feeling things got improvised a little bit if the detective work is correct that Phil narrowly missed an opportunity to fly out that night when leg 3 was completed.
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Offline Hooky

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #190 on: March 01, 2010, 07:27:21 PM »
Quote
Possibly Eliminated:
Jeff & Jordan (eliminated at/before this point, spotted at Elimination Station in Puerto Vallarta 12/9)
Joe & Heidi (last team sent to Elimination Station, spotted with other ES teams at SFO

Woden (or whoever else knows the answer): How do we know this? ???
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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #191 on: March 01, 2010, 07:49:17 PM »
Quote
Possibly Eliminated:
Jeff & Jordan (eliminated at/before this point, spotted at Elimination Station in Puerto Vallarta 12/9)
Joe & Heidi (last team sent to Elimination Station, spotted with other ES teams at SFO

Woden (or whoever else knows the answer): How do we know this? ???

I'm guessing that if Jeff and Jordan make it through the Hamburg leg and into the France leg, there won't be enough time after they get eliminated to make it to Puerto Vallarta by December 9th. If the Hamburg leg is a non-elimination leg, then it's even more likely that Jeff and Jordan are the next to go.

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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #192 on: March 01, 2010, 08:24:41 PM »
Quote
Possibly Eliminated:
Jeff & Jordan (eliminated at/before this point, spotted at Elimination Station in Puerto Vallarta 12/9)
Joe & Heidi (last team sent to Elimination Station, spotted with other ES teams at SFO

Woden (or whoever else knows the answer): How do we know this? ???

As Plaidmoon says, it is a matter of dates. We know JJ were already in Puerto Vallarta on an outing by Dec 9.

IF our tentative filming date for France of Dec 9 is correct, they can't be there, so must go in Germany. :(
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Offline Caelestor

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #193 on: March 01, 2010, 08:31:13 PM »
Quote
Possibly Eliminated:
Jeff & Jordan (eliminated at/before this point, spotted at Elimination Station in Puerto Vallarta 12/9)
Joe & Heidi (last team sent to Elimination Station, spotted with other ES teams at SFO

Woden (or whoever else knows the answer): How do we know this? ???

You really should put a magenta (not fully purple) label over their placings then.

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Offline heyhay28

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #194 on: March 01, 2010, 08:31:39 PM »
I am just curious how y'all got the date of December 9th for the photo of Jeff and Jordan?
I originally saw the picture posted on Jokers and the person who posted it said that they didn't know exactly when it was taken (it was taken by their mom's friend) but that it was taken some time in the next week (they posted it on December 16th from what I remember) and it was at a parade where they shut down the street town for the celebration.

Anyways, on a BB board I post on a lot of people did a LOT of searching and they found a parade that occurred on that street on December 12th, they found other celebrations that occurred that whole week but the only thing they shut that street down at least that we could find was on December 12th...anyways I am not saying y'all are wrong, y'all are for sure the pros and I trust what you say I just know that there were a LOT of people over at the BB board that did hours of searching and we could never come up with the date of the 9th so I was just curious how y'all came up with that date :)

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #195 on: March 01, 2010, 08:40:24 PM »
Now that I can't answer...I thought we knew the date somehow??

We'll have to ask woden that one.

Thanks heyhay!
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #196 on: March 01, 2010, 09:13:42 PM »
I just don't have time to go back and search the whole location thread for this...but did we maybe get the exif data off the pic?? ???
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Offline Plaidmoon

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #197 on: March 01, 2010, 11:04:11 PM »
I just don't have time to go back and search the whole location thread for this...but did we maybe get the exif data off the pic?? ???

I scanned through the destinations/locations and spoilers threads quickly and couldn't find anything much about the Jeff and Jordan elimination station picture. Most of the discussion of it seems to be in the speculation thread. I never did find anything concrete about the exif data. I did find this comment by Macaroons on page 17 (just after midnight on December 17th) of the sightings/info/tweets thread:

More info on the Jeff/Jordan photo from BBO (at Jokersupdates):

"I think it was taken around a week or so ago. Not positive. Also she said they were being filmed, so not sure if they were eliminated or not. It was taken in Puerta Vallarta."

About a week ago puts it at about December 9.


We may not have a very good handle on the date of the Jeff/Jordan elimination station picture after all. It could have been a few days later given the vagueness of the date comment. Can anyone try to find the exif data on that picture? I'm at work but I might be able to do it later on tonight. I think I have a tool for that somewhere on my computer.

http://s551.photobucket.com/albums/ii473/Toad_Kart/?action=view&current=15447_1167754394846_1257516399_3040.jpg

Plaidmoon


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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #198 on: March 02, 2010, 12:50:01 AM »
From what I remember when the picture originally came out I don't think anyone was ever able to get the exif data off of it maybe because we never had the original photo only the copy on photobucket or something but I by no means the expert on any of this.

Also there is a lady who posts on the BB board I post on and she had a good friend who was in Puerto Vallarta for a week at that same time, they never saw Jeff and Jordan but they did say that although there was little celebrations through out the week the only big parade/celebration occurred on the 12th, it was on that street (we found screen shots on google maps of the exact corner they were standing on using the restaurant sign and another store sign in the background) and they blocked traffic for the parade...the 12th was also the only day traffic was blocked and people were allowed to just stand on the side of the road.  I guess it was for some celebration for Our Lady of Guadelupe or something similar in name.

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #199 on: March 02, 2010, 02:13:45 AM »
Thanks so much heyhay! I think we have to backtrack then unless woden remembers something different.....
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