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Author Topic: TAR 16 Timeline Thread  (Read 100930 times)

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Offline theschnauzers

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #75 on: January 21, 2010, 01:55:18 PM »
The reference to the Beatles points towards Hamburg Germany, and I would put it before France and after the South American legs. I also agree that the Seychelles comes after France, if for no other reason that the Seychelles were a French colony at one time, and I suspect with no research that the flight connections from Paris will be easier.
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #76 on: January 21, 2010, 02:20:10 PM »
Agreed. Eight countries means no Paraguay. It was a well-researched hoax though. Too bad they didn't follow through.

We can also now fill in Phil's flight from the Seychelles to Dubai on 12 Dec:
EK 708 to Dubai: 0145-0615
EK 342 to Kuala Lumpur: 1030-2125
MH 1194 to Penang: 2320-0010 (13 Dec)

With 13 Dec being his stand-up day, and the 14 being the race day.

This also means that the Seychelles leg took place on the 11th. If it had ended on the 10th Phil would have been able to get to Penang one day earlier using:
HM 61 to Johannesburg: 0810-1125
SQ 479 to Singapore: 1330-0600 (12 Dec)
MI 352 to Penang: 0805-0930

Working backwards, teams from Paris on 10 Dec would have taken:
HM 7 to Mahe: 1930-0805 (11 Dec)
« Last Edit: January 21, 2010, 02:45:44 PM by Neobie »
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #77 on: January 21, 2010, 02:49:18 PM »
Which SOLIDLY gives us Phil's ZIGZAG route!! :jumpy:

Good work everybody!!
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #78 on: January 21, 2010, 03:20:42 PM »
While the teams could have easily got to the Seychelles from Paris on the evening of the 10th (HM 7: 1930-0805), Phil would have had a much harder time the night before. Assuming that he's flying out of Paris where the World War I battlefields are, Phil would probably have had to do this:
QR 20 to Doha: 1505-2325
QR 702 to Mahe: 0045-0640
Which explains why it takes forever to get there.

I'm pretty certain that there are two legs in the Shanghai area. Too much time.

An extra leg should probably apply to Europe as well. The Bariloche leg takes place on 3 Dec. Assuming Phil can't make it out of Argentina that night, he'd be travelling on the 4th and doing his standups latest by the 5th in Germany. Make the 6th the Germany race day, 7th his standup in France and the 8th the France race day, Phil should still be able to fly out that evening direct to the Seychelles. He doesn't do that.

Looks like a 12-leg race, folks.

Leg One: Valparaiso
Leg Two: Puerto Montt, Puerto Varas
Leg Three: Bariloche
Leg Four: Germany
Leg Five: Germany/France
Leg Six: France
Leg Seven: Seychelles
Leg Eight: Penang
Leg Nine: Singapore
Leg Ten: Shanghai
Leg Eleven: Shanghai
Leg Twelve: San Francisco
« Last Edit: January 21, 2010, 03:31:08 PM by Neobie »
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Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #79 on: January 21, 2010, 03:28:58 PM »
Might be tbc


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #80 on: January 21, 2010, 03:30:20 PM »
Are we sure all the battlefields would be close to Paris?? I was thinking Brussels could be closer to some of them...
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #81 on: January 21, 2010, 03:32:26 PM »
If Phil were trying to fly to the Seychelles though, he would probably be chauffered to the Paris airport. At least we know teams won't be headed to Belgium, given the eight countries limit...

Could we figure out when Granny/Granddaughter were "eliminated"? If it were early enough in the day, Phil would be able to get to Europe a day early and we can confirm a third leg in Europe.

Leg
Phil
Teams
Comments
Valparaiso
29 Nov
29 Nov
First leg
Puerto Montt
30 Nov
1 Dec
Bariloche
2 Dec
3 Dec
Germany
5 or 6 Dec
6 or 7 Dec
France/Germany
7 or 8 Dec
7, 8 or 9 Dec
Short leg
France
8 or 9 Dec
9 Dec
Seychelles
10 Dec
11 Dec
Penang
13 Dec
14 Dec
Singapore
15 Dec
16 Dec
Shanghai I
17 Dec
18 Dec
Shanghai II
19 Dec
19 Dec
Short leg
San Francisco
20 Dec
20 Dec
Final leg
« Last Edit: January 21, 2010, 03:44:18 PM by Neobie »
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #82 on: January 21, 2010, 03:41:33 PM »
Here is a nice link for the battles:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwone/launch_ani_western_front.shtml

Ypres and the Somme are closer to Brussels, Verdun could go either way. Not suggesting a third leg or any leg in Brussels, just saying the airport mighr be a possibility if there are flights from there.

Of course, I would do anything to avoid CDG! :lol:

Depending on where they are and if they are driving or not, catching the Eurostar in Lille could also be possible to get to Brussels or Paris.
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Offline Hooky

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #83 on: January 21, 2010, 03:41:47 PM »
Looks like a 12-leg race, folks.

Leg One: Valparaiso
Leg Two: Puerto Montt, Puerto Varas
Leg Three: Bariloche
Leg Four: Germany
Leg Five: Germany/France
Leg Six: France
Leg Seven: Seychelles
Leg Eight: Penang
Leg Nine: Singapore
Leg Ten: Shanghai
Leg Eleven: Shanghai
Leg Twelve: San Francisco

Yes! Good to hear. I was worried the 12 leg race of last season was just because there were 12 teams.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #84 on: January 21, 2010, 03:51:30 PM »
I don't know...can we really say this?? An extended Pitstop or a TBC would change things enormously...are we really sure at this point Neobie??  Also we need to look aat Singapore too, seems like we saw stuff on the 14th and the 16th, but I :duno: right this minute. :lol:
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Offline Hooky

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #85 on: January 21, 2010, 04:01:23 PM »
I don't know...can we really say this?? An extended Pitstop or a TBC would change things enormously...are we really sure at this point Neobie??  Also we need to look aat Singapore too, seems like we saw stuff on the 14th and the 16th, but I :duno: right this minute. :lol:

I'm not taking it as confirmation, but the reason I'm celebrating is because TBC's have not been frequently used in the race recently.

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #86 on: January 21, 2010, 05:08:46 PM »
A TBC might come in if saving the time for a pit stop works the flight schedules better at some point and more efficiently than having two legs with a pit stop, whether of a standard or non-standard length.

Too bad there isn't a way to see if any of the WWI battlefields in France got closed for filming on one of those dates. It would help pin down the timeline.
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Offline Caelestor

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #87 on: January 21, 2010, 05:54:30 PM »
If Phil were trying to fly to the Seychelles though, he would probably be chauffered to the Paris airport. At least we know teams won't be headed to Belgium, given the eight countries limit...

Could we figure out when Granny/Granddaughter were "eliminated"? If it were early enough in the day, Phil would be able to get to Europe a day early and we can confirm a third leg in Europe.

Leg
Phil
Teams
Comments
Valparaiso
29 Nov
29 Nov
First leg
Puerto Montt
30 Nov
1 Dec
Bariloche
2 Dec
3 Dec
Germany
5 or 6 Dec
6 or 7 Dec
France/Germany
7 or 8 Dec
7, 8 or 9 Dec
Short leg
France
8 or 9 Dec
9 Dec
Seychelles
10 Dec
11 Dec
Penang
13 Dec
14 Dec
Singapore
15 Dec
16 Dec
Shanghai I
17 Dec
18 Dec
Shanghai II
19 Dec
19 Dec
Short leg
San Francisco
20 Dec
20 Dec
Final leg

Assuming this is correct, the NELs will most likely appear in Leg 5, 8, and 10.
Shanghai and the surrounding area's big enough for a double leg.
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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #88 on: January 21, 2010, 06:00:08 PM »
if this route is correct, we'll get our three countries with 2 or more legs  :yess:

Chile
Germany/France
China

Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #89 on: January 21, 2010, 06:02:05 PM »
One more questoin cant the china be a tbc

Offline racer

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #90 on: January 21, 2010, 10:48:28 PM »
One more questoin cant the china be a tbc
That was what I thought. But just me speculating, I guess... :duno:
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #91 on: January 22, 2010, 06:25:11 AM »
I believe these are our flights from the Seychelles to Penang. Not too many alternatives between the two!

Phil
EK 708 to Dubai: 12 0145-0615
EK 342 to Kuala Lumpur: 1030-2125 (sighting)
MH 1194 to Penang: 2320-13 0010

Teams
EK 706 to Dubai: 13 0815-1245
MH 157 to Kuala Lumpur: 1855-14 0605
MH 1138 to Penang: 0915-1015 (sighting)
There are earlier Kuala Lumpur-Penang flights, but I guess the team sighted didn't make it.
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Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #92 on: January 22, 2010, 06:56:09 AM »
Agreed. Eight countries means no Paraguay. It was a well-researched hoax though. Too bad they didn't follow through.

We can also now fill in Phil's flight from the Seychelles to Dubai on 12 Dec:
EK 708 to Dubai: 0145-0615
EK 342 to Kuala Lumpur: 1030-2125
MH 1194 to Penang: 2320-0010 (13 Dec)

With 13 Dec being his stand-up day, and the 14 being the race day.

This also means that the Seychelles leg took place on the 11th. If it had ended on the 10th Phil would have been able to get to Penang one day earlier using:
HM 61 to Johannesburg: 0810-1125
SQ 479 to Singapore: 1330-0600 (12 Dec)
MI 352 to Penang: 0805-0930

Working backwards, teams from Paris on 10 Dec would have taken:
HM 7 to Mahe: 1930-0805 (11 Dec)




i could how say zip zip around the world this is a zip zip around the world

Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #93 on: January 22, 2010, 02:28:08 PM »
Quote
Totes ran into the Amazing Race today on the way to Bariloche, gave a team my map, now i don't know where the [bleep] i am.

The blog from Jeber, discovered by ob-la-di-ob-la-da, was posted on the evening of 2 Dec. We know that the Puerto Varas Pit Stop was on 1 Dec, so this must be the teams on their third leg. It looks like Phil and the teams are going to be racing this one out, with no extra day for Phil to film his stand-ups. Hence we have...

Leg
Phil
Teams
Comments
Valparaiso
29 Nov
29 Nov
First leg
Puerto Montt
30 Nov
1 Dec
Bariloche
2 Dec
2 Dec
Short leg

The Argentinean article tells us that Germany is next, and Phil can easily make this the next day:
AR1681 to Buenos Aires: 1110-1313, then AF 417 to Paris: 1800-1100, then any flight to whichever city in Germany.

No matter how late he arrives, he would have 5 Dec to himself before teams arrive (at the latest) on the 6th.

Leg
Phil
Teams
Comments
Germany
5 Dec
6 Dec
Latest Case Scenario

Now let's work backwards from the sighting of Phil on the flight from Dubai to Kuala Lumpur, departing Dubai at 10.30am on 12 Dec. This means that Phil left that morning from the Seychelles on EK 708, departing Mahe at 1.45am and arriving at 6.15am. The Seychelles leg would have ended on the 11th. (If it had ended on the 10th, Phil could get to Penang via Johannesburg and Singapore on the 11th.)

For long-distance legs, Phil usually gets an extra day to film his stand-ups. This means he would have arrived on the 10th, departing Paris (any other airport would work within the same time frame) on the evening of the 9th:
QR 20 to Doha: 1505-2325, then QR 702 to Mahe: 0045-0640

Leg
Phil
Teams
Comments
France
8 Dec
9 Dec
Seychelles
10 Dec
11 Dec
Penang
13 Dec
14 Dec

You guys see the space that suggests an extra leg between arriving in Germany and leaving France? (The extra leg appearing in the Seychelles could work as well.)
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #94 on: January 22, 2010, 02:59:31 PM »

The Argentinean article tells us that Germany is next, and Phil can easily make this the next day:
AR1681 to Buenos Aires: 1110-1313, then AF 417 to Paris: 1800-1100, then any flight to whichever city in Germany.

No matter how late he arrives, he would have 5 Dec to himself before teams arrive (at the latest) on the 6th.


Thanks Neobie!! I love seeing it all spelled out...

Why do you call Bariloche a short leg though? Does it HAVE to be?

If the teams have to get all the way to that estancia on those roads, I am starting to wonder if maybe we could have two legs in Argentina?? Is there anything that says for sure they couldn't?? ???

That would take up that extra day as well.  But why the 6th as latest case scenario for Germany? Couldn't the extra time be used up in Argentina instead of Europe?

Just wondering...  :colors
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #95 on: January 22, 2010, 05:19:47 PM »
I have been a proponent of 2 legs in Argentina for a while. The second one does not have to be in Buenos Aires.

My comments on using Sao Paulo (GRU) rather than Buenos Aires (EZE) as the transatlantic crossing apply. There would be a narrow time window when it would be appropriate to not go from EZE to GRU for the puddle jump, but most of any 24 hour period would be optimal to go from GRU (even with the 2 hour flight from EZE to GRU factored in).

It seems quite likely that the German city of arrival will be Hamburg. If so, flights from South America will not be connecting in Paris to get there. The preferred alternatives are Munich, Milan-Malpensa and Frankfurt, all of which have prompt flights to Hamburg after arrival.

A similar line of reasoning applies for Paris to Mahe, the main international airport in the Seychelles. I recommend the nonstop flight for CDG arrival after 10am (the drop dead time for the flight to Doha Neobie likes) until 6pm. Earlier or later than that, the connection in Doha is preferred.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2010, 06:39:29 PM by apskip »

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #96 on: January 22, 2010, 05:39:18 PM »
Sounds to me as if a non-standard pit stop is likely at that point so the teams can depart within the CDG window to Mahe.
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Offline Neobie

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #97 on: January 22, 2010, 06:47:38 PM »
Would like to note that standard Pit Stop timings are entirely a thing of the past. Here are the timings for last season:
Tokyo: 12h, Cai Be: ~20h, Ho Chi Minh City: ~33h, Phnom Penh: ~20h, Dubai I: ~23h, Dubai II: 25h, Groningen: 36h, Stockholm: ~12h, Riga: ~34h, Prague I: 10h, Prague II: 10h

One thing that has stayed consistent is the 12h Pit Stop for the first leg, and a new phenomenon of double legs with <12h Pit Stop times in the penultimate city, usually with one night leg and one day leg. I suppose that should be the case with Shanghai as well.
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Offline ZBC Company

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #98 on: January 22, 2010, 06:54:35 PM »
Would like to note that standard Pit Stop timings are entirely a thing of the past. Here are the timings for last season:
Tokyo: 12h, Cai Be: ~20h, Ho Chi Minh City: ~33h, Phnom Penh: ~20h, Dubai I: ~23h, Dubai II: 25h, Groningen: 36h, Stockholm: ~12h, Riga: ~34h, Prague I: 10h, Prague II: 10h

One thing that has stayed consistent is the 12h Pit Stop for the first leg, and a new phenomenon of double legs with <12h Pit Stop times in the penultimate city, usually with one night leg and one day leg. I suppose that should be the case with Shanghai as well.

i think they make this a tbc

Offline theschnauzers

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Re: TAR 16 Timeline Thread
« Reply #99 on: January 22, 2010, 11:47:12 PM »
My suspicion about last season pit stops was that the extent of them was due to the west-to-east global routing it took.

If 12 hour pit stops are a thing of the past, I suspect we'll know once this one is played out.
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