Author Topic: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"  (Read 5624 times)

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Offline apskip

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Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« on: November 09, 2009, 05:16:00 PM »
Here's something that's new and different. Millionaire started broadcasting today the Touronament of 10 series of 10 shows. Here 's how it works:

1. There is a pool of 10 qualifiers, one who won $250K, 4 who won $100K and 5 who won $50K and used 1 minute 13 seconds to 2 minutes 19 seconds. Each day they move up from the bottom of that list to ask a $1,000,000 question. If that individual chooses to answer it, they forfeit all but $25,000 of their original winnings. If they get it right, then they either establish the first position as a potential $1 million winner or they knock out the already established person from that.

2. The regular show goes on till the end of the 3rd commercial, then it flips into Tournament mode for the last short segment, in which contestants have the amount of time remaining form their original allotment plus 45 seconds to answer a very tough question. This was over 3 mintues for the bottom qualifier. They are discouraged from doing so by several things, the forfeiture of their winnings the primary one, the fact that there are no Lifelines available (very common when you reach the $1 million question) and no access to the Internet (which you do not have in the studio but your Phone a Friend will inthe unlikely event that you still have that lifeline). The odds for these questions are barely above 25% that someone will get it right since it's going to be a guess.

3. Let me examine the probabilities here. A $25,000 forfeit( it could be more for the laster contestants) is compared to a 25% of maybe getting $1 million. I am assuming that anyone who gets the $1 million question right will at least get their original winnings back if they are knocked out. So the upside is either a 25% probability of return of the $50,000, a net present value of $12,500, or a net present value of $250,000. I don't know how to estimate the chances of that but as you can see it would take only about a 16% chance of ultimately winning the big prize to break even on this bet. I would take the risk if I were competing.

4. Today's first contestant, Alex Ortiz, got this question:
Which First Lady is a 9th generation descendant of Pocohontas?
Helen Taft
Bess Truman
Edith Wilson
Mamie Eisenhower

Now that's a tough question and one with an equal probability of any answer being right unless you are lucky enough to know it. Alex refused to guess so she could keep her winnings. The correct answer was Edith Wilson.


« Last Edit: November 10, 2009, 09:58:50 PM by apskip »


Offline #HEEL

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2009, 07:45:40 PM »
This sounds kind of similar to a new version of Millionaire that we have called Millionaire Hot Seat.

6 contestants begin, with one contestant answering questions at a time, all contestants play for the same money tree, that only one person can win.

A contestant stays in the hot seat until they either get a question wrong, or pass the question to the next contestant and join the back of the line, where they must hope that everybody else passes a question on so they can get back into the hot seat. (A contestant cannot pass on a question that has been passed to them.)

The top prize starts at 5 Million AUD, but every time a contestant answers incorrectly, the price drops dramatically (Usually the overall winner walks away with anything from $100,000 to $250,000)

Most importantly, contestants only have 20 seconds to answer each question, and they get no lifelines, except for the ability to pass one question.

Offline apskip

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2009, 09:56:32 PM »
Today's $1 million question was another tough one:

Which one of these individuals died as a result of chasing a chicken in snow to test food preservation?
Archimedes
Plato
Francis Bacon
Issac Newton

The correct answer was Francis Bacon. The contestant thought it was but did not submit that. He walked with his original $50,000.

 
« Last Edit: November 11, 2009, 09:09:08 AM by apskip »

Offline #HEEL

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2009, 12:35:15 AM »
fwiw I think Plato died because a bird dropped a turtle on his head... I think.

Offline apskip

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2009, 07:12:06 AM »
fwiw I think Plato died because a bird dropped a turtle on his head... I think.
Coutzy, There is little on it and none of it helpful to answer this question. I am going with this:
Plato
Born: 427 BC - Died: 347 BC
Cause of Death: Natural causes
Now, natural causes does not mean turtles dropped on head!

However, I have verified the death of Francis Bacon, which is one of the most ludicrous chain of events in history:
Aubrey's vivid account, which portrays Bacon as a martyr to experimental scientific method, has him journeying to Highgate through the snow with the King's physician when he is suddenly inspired by the possibility of using the snow to preserve meat. "They were resolved they would try the experiment presently. They alighted out of the coach and went into a poor woman's house at the bottom of Highgate hill, and bought a fowl, and made the woman exenterate it". After stuffing the fowl with snow, he happened to contract a fatal case of pneumonia. Some people, including Aubrey, consider these two contiguous, possibly coincidental events as related and causative of his death: "The Snow so chilled him that he immediately fell so extremely ill, that he could not return to his Lodging ... but went to the Earle of Arundel's house at Highgate, where they put him into ... a damp bed that had not been layn-in ... which gave him such a cold that in 2 or 3 days as I remember Mr Hobbes told me, he died of Suffocation."
« Last Edit: November 11, 2009, 07:15:35 AM by apskip »


Offline #HEEL

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2009, 09:42:02 AM »
I have a book somewhere that says something about a great thinker that died due to turtle-head. Let me dig it up...

Hmm. No thinkers. But the Greek playwright Aeschylus was turtle-head guy.

Interestingly enough, on the very same page is this entry:

"Francis Bacon: The 16th Century English philospher died of pneumonia after pioneering the concept of frozen food by stuffing snow into a chicken."

Offline apskip

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2009, 01:04:09 PM »
Coutzy,
YOu have verified the death cause for Francis Bacon identical to what my information reveals.

Todays's question was a quiet easy one, designed to get the qualifier to attempt an answer. it was:

The ? Insitute has estimated the total number of people who have every lived on Earth. Is their conclusion:
50 billion
100 billion
1 trillion
5 trillion

So, there are maybe 6.5 billion on earth right now. Given the annual population increases which have been pretty much worldwide, there were maybe half that amount one generation ago and maybe half again two generations ago. You get the picture. That progression even going back that many generations cannot get to 1 trillion or 5 trillion. the ballgame is between 50 billion and 100 billion. from what I knew, thet answer lookedd like 100 billion ot me. Today's qualifier thought so too. He guessed 100 billion and is the first one to be in line for the $1 million prize.

Offline apskip

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2009, 10:03:09 PM »
I am trying to keep up with this, but it's been tough.  The #7 qualifier got this question:
Who delivered the less famous two-hour speech that preceded Abraham Lincolnís two-minute Gettysburg Address?
A: Wendell Phillips, B: Daniel Webster, C: Robert G. Ingersoll, D: Edward Everett

All I knew was that I did NOT think it was Daniel Webster. She did not go for it. The correct answer is Edward Everett
and this is a typical $1 million quesiton where you have little chance of beating the 25% odds of getting it correct.

I don't think the #6 person did either, but we had a power failure with the telecast right in the middle so I can't say for sure. I will try ot find out what happened.

Today the #5 qualifier was up and his question was about a Bartlett's quotation saying that I can't remember right now but will sometime soon.
Was it by Winston Churchill, Noel Coward, Mark Twain, or a fourth non-contemporary individual?
The correct answer was Churchill, but this qualifier did not elect to take the risk. Tim Janus was the first of four $100,000 winners to try and they all have more to lose than the $50,000 winners who have ducked.

Offline apskip

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2009, 12:42:01 PM »
Today is a continuation of the trend to not step up. The #3 qualifier Stephen Birt thought of the correct answer but did not have the confidence to go for it. The question is "What is nephelococcygia?

1. staring at clouds
2. to 4. other answers

Staring at clouds was correct, another very difficult question with the probability of getting a correct answer without access to the Internet just above 25%.

I had new thinking about the mathematics of calculating the net present value of going for it vs. keeping the already-earned money. The equation is different for the $100,000 winners, who have a bit more to lose. There is a 75% chance of losing $75,000 vs. the 25% chance of winning either $900,000 net or the already-earned $100,000.  If the probability of either one going for it is 30%, then the net present value of a correct answer for #3 was 70% 25% $900,000 + 30% 25% 0 = $157,500. Since that is clearly more than 75% $75,000 = $56,250. That indicates that any $100,000 winner going for it with those odds would end up with a NPV of $101,000 higher than the original $100,000. It sure looks like they should take the risk to me given the probability of getting it taken away by #1 or #2. It is admittedly hard to calculate probabilities when in that environment, but each bery intelligent contestant had time while the others were being filmed to work out the probabilities and net present value under sets of assumptions.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2009, 01:00:57 PM by apskip »

Offline apskip

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Re: Millionaire "Tournament of 10"
« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2009, 10:49:11 PM »
It's all over. so guess what happened. One more time, the qualifier would have guessed the right answer (7 out of 10 were able to do this), but she did not go for it becuase losign $225,000 was a huge barrier.

Yesterday the question was another very difficult one, which president in the first half of the 19th century was the victim of a shooting by someone with 2 guns, both of which misfired?

1. John Adams
2. Martin van Buren
3. Andrew Jackson
4. James Polk

The correct answer was Andrew Jackson, which I guessed and so did the last $100,000 winner, but she did not go for it.

Today the question was a difficult geogrpahy one. what is Blohenge?

1. a desert in Australia
2. a river in Ireland
3. a forest in Scotland
4. a mountain in Wales

I've been to Wales and there are other mountains with similar names there, so that was my guess. With a close to 50% probability of getting it right, much better than the 25% that my net present value model was based on, I would have gone for it. However, the $250,000 winner did not.

That gave the prize to Sam Murray, who guessed his way to $1,000,000 as no other qualifier was willign to gamble. He did have by far the easiest question.


 

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