Author Topic: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"  (Read 32866 times)

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Offline redskevin88

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #225 on: November 08, 2009, 10:41:54 PM »
 
Quote
4 hours, 100 water logged hay bales later...

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Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #226 on: November 08, 2009, 10:48:41 PM »
This week was no exception, so I guess this blog has it right: the producers really like the accordion.

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #227 on: November 09, 2009, 12:22:53 AM »
It's time for some statistics. The average probability of a hit with 7 flags and 186 bales is 3.76% per attempt assuming that all teams left no clues in their bales. That means that it would take an average of 26.6 tries  before a team found one flag. Although it could vary as flags are actually found, on average it would still stay roughly the same unless there was a "run on the bank". Sam with over 100 tries would have taken 4 times the average. Somebody has to be above average and others below average because that the way a random task works. It is hard to say how long it took to unroll each bale and get to the next one. My guess is that it was about 2 minutes per try. That means that the average time to complete would be about 53 minutes. Meghan reported 2 hours plus. Gary had 2 hours 45 minutes for his. Sam took longer than Meghan and probably longer than Matt. Maybe 3 hours? Big Easy took a short time and so did Brian.

In comparison to the AR6 Ep. 3 Lena effort, the original specs were for 20 clues in 270 bales with 9 teams. This time there were more bales and fewer clues when the number of teams were equalized. The statistics for the original ROADBLOCK were 7.4% hit rate, almost exactly twice the percentage for AR15 ep. 8. The number of bales were 30 per team originally and 37.2 for AR15. On any measure, AR15 Ep.8 was consdeirably tougher than the original.

Actually, just multiplying 7/186 to get your odds of success only works for a very small number of trials (like one trial #1 to be exact).  The more accurate determination of the odds of finding a hay bale with a flag comes from consideration that the number of remaining hay bales is getting smaller with each successive trial.

Consider the probability of not getting a flag in the 1st hay bale:  1 - 7/186 = 0.9624
Then the probability of not getting a flag in the second hay bale is:  1 - 7/185 = 0.9622

But to get to that point we have to multiply the two probabilities.  So the probability that no flag will be found after two tries is:  (1 - 7/186)*(1 - 7/185) = 0.9260

Then the probability of not getting a flag in the third hay bale is: 1 - 7/184 = 0.9620

But to get to that point we have to multiply the three probabilities.  So the probability that no flag will be found after three tries is:  (1 - 7/186)*(1 - 7/185)*(1 - 7/184) = 0.8908

And so on  and so on.   The probabilities of not getting a flag after the first 100  tries is:

This
many     This
tries       Probability

1          0.9624
2          0.926
3          0.8908
4          0.8567
5          0.8238
6          0.7919
7          0.7611
8          0.7313
9          0.7025
10          0.6747
11          0.6479
12          0.622
13          0.597
14          0.5728
15          0.5495
16          0.527
17          0.5053
18          0.4844
19          0.4642
20          0.4447
21          0.4259
22          0.4078
23          0.3904
24          0.3736
25          0.3575
26          0.342
27          0.327
28          0.3126
29          0.2988
30          0.2855
31          0.2727
32          0.2604
33          0.2486
34          0.2372
35          0.2263
36          0.2158
37          0.2057
38          0.196
39          0.1867
40          0.1778
41          0.1693
42          0.1611
43          0.1533
44          0.1458
45          0.1386
46          0.1317
47          0.1251
48          0.1188
49          0.1128
50          0.107
51          0.1015
52          0.0962
53          0.0912
54          0.0864
55          0.0818
56          0.0774
57          0.0732
58          0.0692
59          0.0654
60          0.0618
61          0.0584
62          0.0551
63          0.052
64          0.049
65          0.0462
66          0.0435
67          0.041
68          0.0386
69          0.0363
70          0.0341
71          0.032
72          0.0301
73          0.0283
74          0.0265
75          0.0248
76          0.0232
77          0.0217
78          0.0203
79          0.019
80          0.0178
81          0.0166
82          0.0155
83          0.0145
84          0.0135
85          0.0126
86          0.0117
87          0.0109
88          0.0101
89          0.0094
90          0.0087
91          0.0081
92          0.0075
93          0.0069
94          0.0064
95          0.0059
96          0.0054
97          0.005
98          0.0046
99          0.0042
100          0.0039

So you can see that the odds are better that 50% that a racer could find a flag after looking through 18 hay bales in tonight's show.

Doing the same analysis with season 6's twenty clues in 270 hay bales results in having to check only 9 hay bales.

So they had it easy back then.  Though Lena may differ!   :waves:
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline Jobby

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #228 on: November 09, 2009, 05:34:45 AM »
Nice statistics there!

Offline walkingpneumonia

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #229 on: November 09, 2009, 10:59:17 AM »
Not sure if this was captured already - but the unused detour I believe was in Sigurdsristning:
http://www.sim1.se/swe/mal/sigurd/sigurd_01.html

Still trying to find the exact location in GE
From there to here, and here to there,
funny things are everywhere


Offline Ruth

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #230 on: November 09, 2009, 11:37:44 AM »
What a haybale of an episode!

Flight Time and Big Easy - Nice work there for the Globetrotters! I had a feeling they'd come in first when at the start of the leg, they mentioned that it was Flight Time's birthday and they'd really love to come in first. And they did! Big Easy made such quick time of the haybales, there really must be some birthday luck there, lol.

Meghan and Cheyne - I wouldn't have expected such a strong finish from them especially when they weren't working too well this leg, coupled with Meghan's struggle at the Roadblock. But wow, wow, wow! They still did so well, it's incredible. Loved the part when Meghan pretended that she was giving up, then showed Cheyne the flag. He was still in a blur state of mind! That was cute. It must have been the first time we've seen Meghan really annoyed with Cheyne, but I love it that Cheyne took it so patiently. This couple will go far, in the race and in life!

Brian and Ericka - I give Ericka some credit for going on that amusement park ride bravely. They worked really well this leg, and can I say that they're one of the luckiest teams I've ever seen? They always seem to surge ahead in these needle-in-a-haystack tasks, all the time! It was another unexpected strong finish this leg.

Sam and Dan - I was so annoyed when Dan wouldn't stop yelling at Sam while the latter was doing the Roadblock. Come on, did he think it was that easy to do it? And then there was a three hundred and sixty degree turn, and Dan all of a sudden became so encouraging. I admit that the pit-stop scene was endearing though, Dan feeling all remorseful and breaking down in tears. That was so awww. I hope that they'll be more loving and understanding towards each other in the subsequent legs!

Gary and Matt - I salute Gary and his perseverance! I mean, I didn't feel as hurt as I did seeing him struggle out there as compared to when Lena struggled out there, I just feel more strongly for girls. But he gets the credit for never giving up! And they were much luckier than Lena and Kristy, they did find the flag eventually! Gosh, I'm really starting to love this father and son team now, their relationship's just getting stronger and stronger each leg. :)

Brian and Ericka to win a leg, they're the only team left who hasn't done so. Go Brian and Ericka! :D
TAR 25: Adam and Bethany` Amy and Maya`

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #231 on: November 09, 2009, 06:01:42 PM »
It's time for some statistics. The average probability of a hit with 7 flags and 186 bales is 3.76% per attempt assuming that all teams left no clues in their bales. That means that it would take an average of 26.6 tries  before a team found one flag. Although it could vary as flags are actually found, on average it would still stay roughly the same unless there was a "run on the bank". Sam with over 100 tries would have taken 4 times the average. Somebody has to be above average and others below average because that the way a random task works. It is hard to say how long it took to unroll each bale and get to the next one. My guess is that it was about 2 minutes per try. That means that the average time to complete would be about 53 minutes. Meghan reported 2 hours plus. Gary had 2 hours 45 minutes for his. Sam took longer than Meghan and probably longer than Matt. Maybe 3 hours? Big Easy took a short time and so did Brian.

In comparison to the AR6 Ep. 3 Lena effort, the original specs were for 20 clues in 270 bales with 9 teams. This time there were more bales and fewer clues when the number of teams were equalized. The statistics for the original ROADBLOCK were 7.4% hit rate, almost exactly twice the percentage for AR15 ep. 8. The number of bales were 30 per team originally and 37.2 for AR15. On any measure, AR15 Ep.8 was consdeirably tougher than the original.

Actually, just multiplying 7/186 to get your odds of success only works for a very small number of trials (like one trial #1 to be exact).  The more accurate determination of the odds of finding a hay bale with a flag comes from consideration that the number of remaining hay bales is getting smaller with each successive trial.

Consider the probability of not getting a flag in the 1st hay bale:  1 - 7/186 = 0.9624
Then the probability of not getting a flag in the second hay bale is:  1 - 7/185 = 0.9622

But to get to that point we have to multiply the two probabilities.  So the probability that no flag will be found after two tries is:  (1 - 7/186)*(1 - 7/185) = 0.9260

Then the probability of not getting a flag in the third hay bale is: 1 - 7/184 = 0.9620

But to get to that point we have to multiply the three probabilities.  So the probability that no flag will be found after three tries is:  (1 - 7/186)*(1 - 7/185)*(1 - 7/184) = 0.8908

And so on  and so on.   The probabilities of not getting a flag after the first 100  tries is:

This
many     This
tries       Probability

1          0.9624
2          0.926
3          0.8908
4          0.8567
5          0.8238
6          0.7919
7          0.7611
8          0.7313
9          0.7025
10          0.6747
11          0.6479
12          0.622
13          0.597
14          0.5728
15          0.5495
16          0.527
17          0.5053
18          0.4844
19          0.4642
20          0.4447
21          0.4259
22          0.4078
23          0.3904
24          0.3736
25          0.3575
26          0.342
27          0.327
28          0.3126
29          0.2988
30          0.2855
31          0.2727
32          0.2604
33          0.2486
34          0.2372
35          0.2263
36          0.2158
37          0.2057
38          0.196
39          0.1867
40          0.1778
41          0.1693
42          0.1611
43          0.1533
44          0.1458
45          0.1386
46          0.1317
47          0.1251
48          0.1188
49          0.1128
50          0.107
51          0.1015
52          0.0962
53          0.0912
54          0.0864
55          0.0818
56          0.0774
57          0.0732
58          0.0692
59          0.0654
60          0.0618
61          0.0584
62          0.0551
63          0.052
64          0.049
65          0.0462
66          0.0435
67          0.041
68          0.0386
69          0.0363
70          0.0341
71          0.032
72          0.0301
73          0.0283
74          0.0265
75          0.0248
76          0.0232
77          0.0217
78          0.0203
79          0.019
80          0.0178
81          0.0166
82          0.0155
83          0.0145
84          0.0135
85          0.0126
86          0.0117
87          0.0109
88          0.0101
89          0.0094
90          0.0087
91          0.0081
92          0.0075
93          0.0069
94          0.0064
95          0.0059
96          0.0054
97          0.005
98          0.0046
99          0.0042
100          0.0039

So you can see that the odds are better that 50% that a racer could find a flag after looking through 18 hay bales in tonight's show.

Doing the same analysis with season 6's twenty clues in 270 hay bales results in having to check only 9 hay bales.

So they had it easy back then.  Though Lena may differ!   :waves:


Chateau, I think your approach is wrong. You cannot assume that there will be no hits at any point in the process. The real probability does vary a small amount ( as you have proved convincingly) when there is no hit and also when there is a hit, but on average it remains at 3.76% as long as the 5th cumulative hit is around cumulative try #133 (186 - 26.6 x 2). You can run a million accurate probability cases that prove nothing, but this information can be synthesized into something that makes sense and an approximation approach is the right way to go. The AVERAGE number of tries is still 26.6. Your 18 tries to have a higher than 50% probability is true, but so what? That does not mean that the average team will be done after 18 tries beacuse that is not so.

I obviously do agree with you that Lena had it easier than Gary.

« Last Edit: November 09, 2009, 06:29:51 PM by apskip »

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #232 on: November 09, 2009, 06:25:32 PM »
Skokloster Castle is located on Lake Mšlaren between Stockholm and Uppsala. This is one of the Grand Baroque castles of Europe. It has to be located very close to the Bogs Gard Farm in Vasby.

By car
From Stockholm: take the E18 for Oslo/EnkŲping, turning off at Bro onto the 269/263 and following the signs for Skokloster. This is only 70 km, but it will take you an hour or so. Alternatively you can follow the E4 northwards, leaving by the Mšrsta exit for the 263, which takes you past Sigtuna and from there to Skokloster and EnkŲping. After you leave the 263 for the Sko peninsula (SkohalvŲn) you drive for 12 km along a country road traversing historic ground and lined with runestones and lush farmland.

There is an interesting map which puts the above roads into perspective:


Offline cinelamour

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #233 on: November 09, 2009, 08:10:56 PM »
http://www.bogsgard.se/

Bogsgard is in the Upplands Vasby, part of the Solletuna municipality of Stockholms county.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #234 on: November 09, 2009, 08:31:05 PM »
Oh :jumpy:  JOY!! That is the link I looked for  forever!!

Thanks so much for sharing that!! And :welcome3: to RFF cinelamour!!

A map!! pictures of our field! A haybale!! :hearts:
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Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #235 on: November 10, 2009, 12:13:08 AM »
Apskip, you're right, I should not assume there are no hits in the process.  I was considering the process up to the first hit only.  But, it is easy to adapt the analysis for many hits.  What I've done is to adjust the number of remaining flags after each flag is found.  So, for example, (1 - 7/167)  gets replaced with (1 - 6/167) after the first flag is found.  I let the flags be found at the 50% point of each sequence of tries.

So the way this works is any or all teams are opening haybales.  After the 18th haybale is opened there is a flag (we're going by the 50% rule).  Now there are 167 haybales left and 6 flags left.  After 19 more haybales are opened someone finds a 2nd flag (still going by the 50% rule). Now there are 148 haybales left and 5 flags left. After 20 more haybales are opened someone finds a 3rd flag (still going by the 50% rule).  Now there are 128 haybales left and 4 flags left. After 21 more haybales are opened someone finds a 4th flag (still going by the 50% rule).  Now there are 107 haybales left and 3 flags left.  After 23 more haybales are opened the last racer finds the 5th flag (still going by the 50% rule).  Now there are 84 haybales left and 2 flags left.

This
many    This            Flags
tries    Probability   Left

1          0.9624       7     
2          0.926         7     
3          0.8908       7     
4          0.8567       7     
5          0.8238       7     
6          0.7919       7     
7          0.7611       7     
8          0.7313       7     
9          0.7025       7     
10          0.6747       7     
11          0.6479       7     
12          0.622        7     
13          0.597        7     
14          0.5728       7     
15          0.5495       7     
16          0.527         7     
17          0.5053       7     
18          0.4844       6  1st flag found after 18 tries
19          0.9643       6     
20          0.9297       6     
21          0.8961       6     
22          0.8635       6     
23          0.8319       6     
24          0.8013       6     
25          0.7716       6     
26          0.7428       6     
27          0.7149       6     
28          0.6879       6     
29          0.6618       6     
30          0.6365       6     
31          0.612         6     
32          0.5883       6     
33          0.5654       6     
34          0.5432       6     
35          0.5218       6     
36          0.5011       6     
37          0.4811       5  2nd flag found after 19 additional tries
38          0.9664       5     
39          0.9338       5     
40          0.902         5     
41          0.8711       5     
42          0.8411       5     
43          0.8119       5     
44          0.7835       5     
45          0.7559       5     
46          0.7291       5     
47          0.7031       5     
48          0.6778       5     
49          0.6532       5     
50          0.6294       5     
51          0.6063       5     
52          0.5838       5     
53          0.562         5     
54          0.5409       5     
55          0.5204       5     
56          0.5005       5     
57          0.4813       4  3rd flag found after 20 additional tries
58          0.969         4     
59          0.9387       4     
60          0.9091       4     
61          0.8802       4     
62          0.852         4     
63          0.8245       4     
64          0.7977       4     
65          0.7715       4     
66          0.746         4     
67          0.7211       4     
68          0.6969       4     
69          0.6733       4     
70          0.6503       4     
71          0.6279       4     
72          0.6061       4     
73          0.5848       4     
74          0.5641       4     
75          0.544         4     
76          0.5244       4     
77          0.5053       4     
78          0.4868       3  4th flag found after 21 additional tries
79          0.9722       3     
80          0.9449       3     
81          0.9182       3     
82          0.892         3     
83          0.8663       3     
84          0.8411       3     
85          0.8164       3     
86          0.7922       3     
87          0.7684       3     
88          0.7451       3     
89          0.7223       3     
90          0.7             3     
91          0.6781       3     
92          0.6567       3     
93          0.6357       3     
94          0.6152       3     
95          0.5951       3     
96          0.5755       3     
97          0.5563       3     
98          0.5375       3     
99          0.5192       3     
100          0.5013       3     
101          0.4838       2  5th flag found after 23 additional tries


As you can see the average number of tries that the 5 racers make is 101/5 = 20.2.   I know that this result differs from your average of 26.6.  I think this is a somewhat complicated statistical problem.  Applying 186 divided by 7   (186/7 = 26.6)   to the problem without further accommodations for the changing odds is too much of a simplification that leads to an incorrect result.
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Offline Blob

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #236 on: November 10, 2009, 01:35:46 AM »
Not sure if this was captured already - but the unused detour I believe was in Sigurdsristning:
http://www.sim1.se/swe/mal/sigurd/sigurd_01.html

Still trying to find the exact location in GE

Why do you believe that?

Offline Blob

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #237 on: November 10, 2009, 08:49:05 AM »

The ferry to Grona Lund goes takes only 5 minutes from Gamla Stand to Djurgarden Island. You can also get there from Slusseen Island in 8 minutes. Which one was correct for teams to get to Grona Lund? I don't know and may not be able to get appropraite information on this.

There are 5 different ferrylines, and dozens of stops around Stockholm

Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #238 on: November 10, 2009, 09:26:56 AM »
It would be interesting to know what their exact instructions were. Most teams took the regular Djurgarden ferry to Allmaana grand landing (seen here next to Grona Lunds), but Brian/Ericka took a Hop on Hop off sightseeing boat (which included free admission to GL!). Were they told to take a ferry or just a boat? And why no taxis?

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #239 on: November 10, 2009, 10:21:52 AM »
Slowhatch,

I again do not know for sure, but I am willing to hypothesize that no taxis were needed because the distance from the Arlanda Express to the dock is relatively short and could be done on foot if teams did not wish to take the tunnelbahn. Arland Express has a main station at Klarabergsviadukten 72. Here is a map of central Stockholm:

Central Stockholm Map

The place where the Arlanda Experss train arrives is near the label #53. The public transit network is shown below. It indicates that the Tunnelbahncan be taken from adjacent to Centralterminalen on the T-Centralen line one stop T-Gamla station to Slussen, where a short walk to the Djurgšrdsfšrjan ferry(dock marked #55 which is ont unique on the lower right of that island) will take them a few hundred yards mostly east to GronaLund.  
« Last Edit: November 10, 2009, 10:31:22 AM by apskip »

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #240 on: November 11, 2009, 12:45:24 AM »
Maybe the Red X was red paint?

Offline gator27

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #241 on: November 12, 2009, 10:36:55 AM »
Maybe the Red X was red paint?

In between yelling at your brother about hay bales, you get bored and decide to paint a X on the bottom of your gnome because you are bored.  As a hidden benefit, you tweaked a whole bunch of TAR spoilers.

Offline Hooky

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #242 on: November 12, 2009, 11:13:15 AM »
Maybe the Red X was red paint?

In between yelling at your brother about hay bales, you get bored and decide to paint a X on the bottom of your gnome because you are bored.  As a hidden benefit, you tweaked a whole bunch of TAR spoilers.

:funny:

Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #243 on: November 12, 2009, 12:45:10 PM »
Quote
I again do not know for sure, but I am willing to hypothesize that no taxis were needed because the distance from the Arlanda Express to the dock is relatively short and could be done on foot if teams did not wish to take the tunnelbahn.
I was just curious about the absence of cabs in general: the only cab I saw in the episode was leading B/E to the detour. I was surprised the 4-pack didn't follow a cab as well, like they did at Groningen (the beginning of the end for Montana, I think).
As far the boats go, all the teams took the Djurgarden ferry from Slussenterminal (left), except for B/E which took the HOHO boat from Nybroplan (right). The distance from Central Station is about the same, roughly 4/5 mile.

Offline Hooky

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #244 on: November 13, 2009, 07:10:55 PM »
I'm happy the cabs are gone! :jumpy:

Offline bearsfolife

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #245 on: November 14, 2009, 06:50:27 PM »
Every time Dan screamed at Sam, I laughed my arse off. That was so funny. He just couldn't shut his mouth until like 2 hrs. later.

If I had been Sam, I woulda threatened to quit if Dan wouldn't quit being a nagging you know what.

Offline David

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #246 on: November 15, 2009, 10:02:19 AM »
Maybe the Red X was red paint?

In between yelling at your brother about hay bales, you get bored and decide to paint a X on the bottom of your gnome because you are bored.  As a hidden benefit, you tweaked a whole bunch of TAR spoilers.

I strongly think it was just glue to stick the clue in the base of the gnome... Sam & Dan unsticked it, and the glue could be seen?
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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #247 on: November 15, 2009, 10:50:14 AM »
I dunno theres something whanky with the gnomes, I've watched this episode 10 times or more and everyone's gnome base changes in different scenes. 

Offline littlewop

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #248 on: November 15, 2009, 12:22:05 PM »
I dunno theres something whanky with the gnomes, I've watched this episode 10 times or more and everyone's gnome base changes in different scenes. 

I noticed that too.  And the red X, was definetely bigger than the clue.  IIRC didn't it run from edge to edge almost, and the clue didn't look like it did.

Could TPTB be messing with us???

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing Iíve Ever Done in My Life"
« Reply #249 on: November 15, 2009, 12:34:20 PM »
I think there was more than one gnome, as Luke has stated, if one breaks it is replaced. They were really pushing the gnome huh? They had to carry it to the detour for product placement when they could very well have left it in their cars.


 

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