REWARD CHALLENGE: "Samoa Smoothies" (gross food) - Galu wins?
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: "Sack Attack" - Galu wins
HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOLS: Shambo visits Foa Foa, for no obvious reason
BOOT: Ashley? Jaison?
Survivor: Samoa episode 5 detailed boot spoilers/ speculation
Setting aside any alleged spoilers floating around, the focus in the post-Ep4 preview was pretty much all Foa Foa again, suggesting they're returning to their tribal council home-away-from-home this week.
Who's most at risk? Half the tribe: Jaison, Liz and Ashley.
Jaison has been on Russell H's new hit list ever since the Ben boot, and has complained about the conditions for two episodes straight. He thought about quitting before the Ben vote, and said in Ep4 that coming on the show was the worst decision he's made in his life... how will 48 straight hours of rain make him feel?
Liz also gets a soggy treatment in the Ep5 preview: Arguing with Russell H (didn't work out so well for Marisa or Betsy), complaining about the rain (fire is life, so water is the opposite), and "struggling to hang on" in what looks like the IC (in Probst's own words). Not good portents.
And finally there's Ashley, who was Russell's first choice for a target in the previous Foa Foa tribal council visit. Compared to Jaison and Liz, she gets a relatively positive treatment in the preview (listening to Natalie worry about the looming dark clouds).
Of these, Jaison has proven his worth in the challenges, as has Liz to some extent. Ashley hasn't done much of anything. But it comes down to who Russell wants out the most. In Russell's negative energy strategy, forcing Jaison to stick around when he clearly doesn't want to be there works to Russell's advantage, plus he's relatively loyal. But it's hard to tell who Russell would want out between Russell and Ashley.
With respect to alleged spoilers, missyae has two, possibly three, stories:
(1) missyae 10/4/09 12:45 a.m. "The next player that will be booted from Foa Foa when they go back to Tribal will be Ashley Trianer."
(2) missyae 10/8/09 2:43 a.m. (see also the reply, three posts down) "Okay the way I am told the events happen is after Yasmin is voted out this week - Russell Swan goes down during a challenge - then Ashley is voted out for Foa Foa."
Clearly, both can't be true. When we pointed out that the second story doesn't make sense, since EW (reasonably) explicitly states that the next (and last) medical evacuation takes place in Ep6, not Ep5, he responded with:
(3) missyae 10/8/09 4:01 p.m. "When Russell goes down in the challenge - Foa Foa had a lead and thought they had it won. BOTH tribes go to Tribal Council and sit and talk with Jeff and NOBODY is voted out."
This actually makes even less sense - unless they do something crazy and do double boots in the jury phase (which has never been done, and would require two votes at tribal council, and so is highly unlikely), the show needs to shed three people in the next two episodes, not just one (or two), in order to have the final five in the finale on Sunday, December 13 (as the CBS Fantasy rules state).
So something is still amiss. A fourth story emerged later (just prior to Ep4):
(4) missyae 10/8/09 5:28 p.m. "Yasmin is tonight. After that the next person to be voted out when Foa Foa goes to Tribal is Ashley. Russell S is the player to go down in the challenge everyone is talking about. He is the medivac. After he leaves they have both tribes meet at Tribal and I was told it was very boring and they knew nobody was leaving so it was a waste of time. But anyway - when that happens - nobody is voted out at that Tribal. They merge at 8 Galu and 4 Foa Foa."
Note that there's now a mystery Foa Foa person disappearing somewhere in the next two episodes (Alien abduction? The Rapture?), since Ashley is the only one mentioned being booted, and Foa Foa currently has six members. Although at least the Ashley-Russell S. order now makes sense. Small victories.
But there are also some (admittedly vague) contradictory notes concerning Ashley's allegedly imminent departure, Redmond at Sucks reports a rumor that both alternates (Ashley and Erik) "went far." True, two weeks into the show might be construed as reasonably far. Hard to say.
As usual, more details as they emerge. http://www.truedorktimes.com/survivor_samoa/spoilers/index.htm