Author Topic: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers  (Read 92497 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Ray!

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4413
    • ImANewUser Productions
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #250 on: July 28, 2009, 04:11:06 AM »
I feel so useless when it comes to these. OMG. I wanna help, but somehow I can't. :'(
Well, thanks and kudos to all you TAR detectives. :tup: :tup:

Just wanna say that. :funny: On topic: Is it possible they finally go to Nairobi from Dubai and stay there for one leg?
I'm baaaaaack!


Offline Neobie

  • Amazing Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1890
  • For the winners go to spoil!
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #251 on: July 28, 2009, 05:08:31 AM »
Nice, ZachAttack!

An interesting note from TAR 14: Phil was almost always a day ahead of the field, exceptions discussed below. We have the Tokyo leg ending on Monday 20 Jul, and the HCMC leg on Thursday 23 Jul. That gives us enough time for only one spare Phil day, ie...

Scenario 1
20 Jul: Tokyo finish. Phil goes to Leg 2.
21 Jul: Pit Stop release delayed. Spare Phil day to prepare Leg 2.
22 Jul: Leg 2 finish. Phil goes quickly to HCMC.
23 Jul: Phil films HCMC quickly, racing with the teams.

Scenario 2
20 Jul: Tokyo finish. Phil goes quickly to Leg 2.
21 Jul: Phil films Leg 2 quickly, racing with the teams. Phil then goes to HCMC.
22 Jul: Pit Stop release delayed. Spare Phil day to prepare HCMC.
23 Jul: HCMC finish.

We see the pattern continuing with the next two legs:
Phnom Penh, 24 Jul being Phil's free day, 25 Jul the actual racing day.
Dubai, 26 Jul being Phil's free day, 27 Jul the actual racing day.

The two exceptions in TAR 14 were Stechelberg to Vienna (~430 mil), where Phil took a production van; and Phuket to Bangkok (~420 mil), which are within the same country. Apart from Krasnoyarsk-Novosibirsk (~390 mil), which is a headache transport-wise, these are the two shortest legs in the season. I'm guessing Leg 2 is very accessible from either Tokyo or Ho Chi Minh City. And since Phil's in a bit of a rush trying to get to the Pit Stop in the morning for HCMC, I'm guessing he'd use the rest day there. Educated guess conclusion: Leg 2, Japan.

Comparisons:
Tokyo to Kyoto/Osaka (310 mil), Sapporo (490 mil), Seoul (780 mil)
HCMC to Da Nang (370 mil), Vientiane (560 mil), Hanoi (710 mil)



Appendix: TAR 14 simplified timeline
1 Nov: Phil Leg 1; 2 Nov: Racers Leg 1
3 Nov: Phil/Racers Leg 2
4 Nov: Phil Leg 3; 5 Nov: Racers Leg 3
6 Nov: Phil travels; 7 Nov: Phil Leg 4, racers travel; 8 Nov: Racers Leg 4
9 Nov: Phil Leg 5; 10 Nov: Racers Leg 5
11 Nov: Phil travels; 12 Nov: Phil Leg 6, racers travel; 13 Nov: Racers Leg 6
14 Nov: Phil Leg 7; 15 Nov: Racers Leg 7
16 Nov: Phil/Racers Leg 8
17 Nov: Phil Leg 9; 18 Nov: Racers Leg 9
19 Nov: Phil Leg 10; 20 Nov: Racers Leg 10
21 Nov: Phil/Racers Leg 11
« Last Edit: July 28, 2009, 05:49:17 AM by Neobie »
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Offline Ray!

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4413
    • ImANewUser Productions
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #252 on: July 28, 2009, 05:13:59 AM »
So based on that, the Hanoi option mentioned somewhere on the board sounds possible (although I prefer a visit to Haiphong - just noticed, most of the Vietnam places on TAR(A) start with an H - Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Hue, Ha Long Bay) or they went somewhere else in Honshu. (Kyoto, Nagoya - not sure if this is in Honshu :duno: - or Osaka)
I'm baaaaaack!

Offline walkingpneumonia

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1014
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #253 on: July 28, 2009, 09:07:32 AM »
When it's safer I'm sure they would consider Isreal. Of course, I don't see why they wouldn't consider it with enough security when Israel has it's own version going on as you mentioned.
yes, but do you realize that in the israeli format only ben gurion was visited?
and also, going to Israel will forcibly ban the racers from going to some Middle East countries and vice versa
Visiting Israel does not stop you from visiting countries that have not signed a peace treaty with Israel as long as you don't get your passport stamped...

Quote
... There your luggage and person may be searched, and you will receive an entry stamp. Although this stamp does not present a problem when entering Jordan or Egypt, if you wish to visit Syria, Lebanon or any Arab country which has not signed a peace treaty with Israel, you should explicitly ask to get your Israeli entry and exit stamps on separate pieces of paper, not in your passport. Likewise, you should ask the Jordanian authorities to stamp your exit and entry from any crossing point connecting Jordan with the occupied West Bank or Israel on a separate sheet of paper as well.
From there to here, and here to there,
funny things are everywhere

Offline Zack.

  • Big Brother Updaters
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1260
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #254 on: July 28, 2009, 10:03:37 AM »
So based on that, the Hanoi option mentioned somewhere on the board sounds possible (although I prefer a visit to Haiphong - just noticed, most of the Vietnam places on TAR(A) start with an H - Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Hue, Ha Long Bay) or they went somewhere else in Honshu. (Kyoto, Nagoya - not sure if this is in Honshu :duno: - or Osaka)

Nagoya is in Honshu  :tup:

If it were in Japan, I'd say it would have to be a sizable distance from Tokyo; a long transport ride (say, an overnight bus) gives Phil time to film stand-ups and fly out to Vietnam ahead of the racers.

Would this also mean that our Phil sighting in Phnom Penh is a day ahead of the teams? Since he was at the Foreign Correspondents Club doing something leisurely (I assume); with teams breathing down his neck I doubt he would have time to stop for a drink (unless the Pit Stop was there).


Offline spanishtarfan

  • RFF Not So Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 26
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #255 on: July 28, 2009, 11:35:06 AM »
there has been a Phil sighting? I missed it!! who saw him? where is the post?  :duno:

Offline DrRox

  • A Simple Traveler
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2281
  • Black holes are where God divided by zero!!!
    • My Favorite City
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #256 on: July 28, 2009, 11:41:21 AM »


The two exceptions in TAR 14 were Stechelberg to Vienna (~430 mil),

Neobie,

Wasn't it
1) Stechelberg to Zurich by taxi
2) Zurich to Munich by air
3) Munich to Salzberg by car
????????????
Matthew 7:15

Offline walkingpneumonia

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1014
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #257 on: July 28, 2009, 12:02:23 PM »
Thinking about the first leg...
Perhaps the task at the starting line was designed to delay the teams and give Phil a head start getting to Tokyo so he could do stand-ups before the teams arrive?

I don't believe Chateau saw Phil at LAX - so maybe he left on Korean Air KE 2 at 11:40 and the teams were held back long enough so they could only get AA 169 at 12:45 or UA 891 at 13:13.

Not sure if the timing works for this. :duno:

From there to here, and here to there,
funny things are everywhere

Offline nyydem

  • RFF Not So Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 7
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #258 on: July 28, 2009, 12:25:51 PM »
Thinking about the first leg...
Perhaps the task at the starting line was designed to delay the teams and give Phil a head start getting to Tokyo so he could do stand-ups before the teams arrive?

I don't believe Chateau saw Phil at LAX - so maybe he left on Korean Air KE 2 at 11:40 and the teams were held back long enough so they could only get AA 169 at 12:45 or UA 891 at 13:13.

Not sure if the timing works for this. :duno:



Usually for the first leg, they have 2 flights with tickets already reserved for the teams (so there are only 2 flights that the teams can take).  So they easily could have just picked 2 flights that would be late enough to give Phil a head start.  In other words, I doubt that giving Phil a head start would be a reason for having an extra task at the beginning, since the flights the teams can take are already set.

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4558
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #259 on: July 28, 2009, 02:11:13 PM »
The task at the beginning was over and done in 10 or 15 minutes.  So that would not give much lead time. Not only that, Phil has to stay to the bitter end of that!   ;)   Also, remember that the teams always have an overnight camp out on the day of arrival in the first city.

I suspect you are correct about Phil's flight on KE2 with its 3:00 pm arrival.  That would give him time for the standup.
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?


Offline graytex

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 633
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #260 on: July 28, 2009, 02:26:14 PM »
Is it just a wild guess that one team was eliminated at the start?  I know there was some kind of task at the starting line, but wouldn't we see a mat in the starting line pictures?  Maybe it's just me hoping that's not true because it would just seem kinda crappy.

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4558
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #261 on: July 28, 2009, 02:38:20 PM »
I suspect that the mat was moved into position (and the 12th Mercedes was driven away, note the driver is waiting to do so in the shot) when Phil was giving the Teams the usual speech.  But with a new  :ascared twist.

Actually, at the low angle of the shot this could be the mat (not even 'rolled up').  Note how the shadow of the umbrella is very short in one direction.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2009, 03:27:30 PM by Chateau d If »
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline graytex

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 633
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #262 on: July 28, 2009, 04:28:35 PM »
Thanks Chateau.  That is so depressing!  Can you imagine getting the call for TAR and all the excitement and then never racing for one mile?  I would have to be hospitalized.

 :colors B:)

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4558
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #263 on: July 28, 2009, 05:03:53 PM »
I'm sure it comes to blows  :bags
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline Kiwi Jay

  • 'giz us a geez'
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3942
  • Still here - just.
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #264 on: July 28, 2009, 05:14:26 PM »
I hate the "new twist". Who wants to go on TAR and get kicked out like 20 metres from the line.

Offline Neobie

  • Amazing Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1890
  • For the winners go to spoil!
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #265 on: July 28, 2009, 07:02:28 PM »
Wasn't it
1) Stechelberg to Zurich by taxi
2) Zurich to Munich by air
3) Munich to Salzberg by car

Aah crap brain fart. Sorry! :lol:

Stechelberg to Salzburg is only about 270 mil, making it the shortest leg of TAR 14. Phil left the night before the racers in a production van, but the teams caught up when they arrived in Munich by air...

Would hate if the 1-minute-in elimination exists. What's the bloody point? Week after week we'd be looking at the opening credits and go "who's that?"
« Last Edit: July 28, 2009, 07:11:55 PM by Neobie »
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 38929
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #266 on: July 28, 2009, 07:12:49 PM »
You would think CBS wiould have listened when we all complained bitterly after the last first leg elim.

I think of a team so excited, shopping for days at REI for just the right clothes, testing backpacks, weighing their stuff, paring their stuff to a little ziplock baggie, working out, taking time off work, being filled with anticipation and joy...all for nothing.  :'( :'(

Worst twist EVER. My heart breaks for them.
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4558
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #267 on: July 28, 2009, 07:32:16 PM »
Please don't ask where this comes from  :waves:
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline Neobie

  • Amazing Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1890
  • For the winners go to spoil!
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #268 on: July 28, 2009, 07:38:55 PM »
F***.

WORST. TWIST. EVER.
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Offline 2old4tech

  • RFF Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 163
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #269 on: July 28, 2009, 08:00:51 PM »
Please don't ask where this comes from  :waves:

Is that BvM in the white shirt and white hat?

Offline Zack.

  • Big Brother Updaters
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1260
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #270 on: July 28, 2009, 08:21:21 PM »
That looks like someone reacting in the same way I would react if I were eliminated at the start line.

(Doesn't that look a little like Meeka in the front?)

Offline puddin

  • **puddinpiepork**
  • RFF Assistant Administrator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 85481
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #271 on: July 28, 2009, 08:24:37 PM »
That looks like someone reacting in the same way I would react if I were eliminated at the start line.

(Doesn't that look a little like Meeka in the front?)
Meeka/Michelle wore gray? colored shorts if I recall.

Offline dantwin

  • RFF Not So Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 7
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #272 on: July 28, 2009, 08:30:34 PM »
I think the brunette is Tiffany Michelle...when I pumped up the saturation in photoshop I saw purple.

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4558
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #273 on: July 28, 2009, 08:31:26 PM »
It's Maroon.
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline jerseydude

  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3089
  • Itís Friday, Friday Gotta get down on Friday
Re: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers
« Reply #274 on: July 28, 2009, 08:46:25 PM »
It may be a start line elimination because there is the mat on the left hand corner of the pic.
The Amazing Race TV Stars- Marc and Rovilson (Currently 1st)
Victor\'s Amazing Race- Mooyou and Jerseydude (Currently 5th)
RFF Amazing Race Season 2- Redskevin88 & Jerseydude (Eliminated 4th)
Mooyou\'s Amazing Race- Tammy and Victor (Finished 2nd Place )


 

Custom Search