The first half hour of the Oscars usually has a long musical introduction and a monologue. With this year's host being Hugh Jackman, there won't be a comedic monologue. He can sing, so there might be a song and dance number. Then one major award is announced, either Best Supporting Actress or Actor. After that, it's a long way to a major award so TAR's ratings might be helped in that respect.
However, with NASCAR going late, that is definitely going to hurt. I do think the Oscars will have a 18 to 20 share in the first half hour. TAR might be lucky to eke out a 6 share.