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Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #225 on: April 19, 2009, 10:51:33 PM »
It was a evil ploy by the producers to get everyone snagged on the hours of operation.

Releasing Margie and Luke at 9.36am is perfectly timed for them to miss TG668 leaving at 9.50am, arriving in Guangzhou at 1.30pm. In a shorter Pit Stop and with nothing to lose, teams would then try for CA4382 (2.20pm-3.20pm) to Guilin. It's a tight connection that teams would probably miss, but if they made it they'd make Phil very unhappy.

Banning the Macau and Hong Kong flights on top of the Pit Stop shift makes it impossible for teams to arrive before 9.30pm, giving Phil an entire day to slack around in Guilin. (Yes - I'm a small government kind of person!)

I've got a time of 6.20pm-10.00pm for Mark/Michael's CZ364 from Bangkok to Guangzhou (teeny bit earlier than Apskip's timing), which would allow them to try for CZ3234 (11.05pm-11.55pm) onward to Guilin. That's where we get our baggage claim sighting at around 11pm, when they're exiting International and headed for Domestic. They apparently missed it - and I've got an earliest flight of ZH9637 (7.40am-8.45am) the next day. The leg might have turned out very different if they caught it!

Guess we'd have to plan for mandatory connection cities in the future, huh?
« Last Edit: April 19, 2009, 11:01:27 PM by Neobie »
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Offline puddin

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #226 on: April 19, 2009, 11:03:40 PM »
So you agree the Hours of op is where we would have seen......?
Quote
The Folded Brocade Mountains
aka Diecai Shan, aka Di-Tsai Mountain, aka Peak of the Luminous Moon, aka Bright Moon Peak, aka Mingyue Feng

Looking forward to the insider clips .....

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Offline DrRox

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #227 on: April 19, 2009, 11:20:02 PM »
Ms Puddin, I just think it was an isolated "holding pen," similiar to the church in Locarno, where TPTB took all the teams to pass the night. I will have to go back and look at my DVR, it is seemed to me that the first 4 teams all landed in Guilin in the dark, but it was light when they walked out of the airport to get taxis.
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Offline puddin

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Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #229 on: April 24, 2009, 04:40:33 AM »
The evening flights from Guilin to Beijing on Nov 18th were at:

CZ 3287   17:10-19:50  (5:10 pm-7:50 pm)
CA 1226   21:05-00:05 (9:05 pm-12:05 am)

Morning of Nov 19th flights were:
CZ 3281   9:00-11:25
CA 1312   11:45-14:35 (11:45 am-2:35 pm)

Since the activities appear to be all at night, that would (to me) preclude the morning flights on Nov 19th. So I think that TPTB will give us a shortened pit stop this episode, in order for the 4 teams to make the last flight to Beijing and another bunching point.

Maybe not a shorter than 12h Pit Stop, but an extended one, with teams racing Beijing I on the evening of the 19th? Gives Phil the entire day to film his exposition, and there's still enough time after that for us to complete the race.

With Mark/Michael arriving in Guilin at 8.45am and checking in half an hour behind Jaime/Cara, taking even the most generous estimates we would require the teams to have only an 8h break to be able to make the 9.05pm flight to Beijing (with 0.5h between the airport and the city, 2h for the Guilin tasks, and 0.5h check-in requirement).

So far only Stechelberg and Phuket were the standard 12h, and Bran and Novosibirsk 36's (both so Phil can get ahead).
Salzburg was ~20h for an unknown reason.
Krasnoyarsk was ~24h to bunch teams on the night train.
Jaipur was ~24h to let Phil fly one day ahead.
Phuket Bangkok was ~22h, a very calculated timing to bunch teams at the Folded Brocade Mtns. (Thanks DrRox.)
« Last Edit: April 24, 2009, 08:34:35 AM by Neobie »
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Offline Ray!

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #230 on: April 24, 2009, 04:46:40 AM »
They could have a 24-hour Pitstop and go for the 11:45 am flight. There might be other tasks not aired which are performed in the mid-late afternoon, and then we have the tasks shown which are performed after that, and by that time, night has fallen. (a la TAR13 India leg 1)
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Offline DrRox

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #231 on: April 24, 2009, 05:23:25 AM »

We were flying on an Air China/ANA code share from Beijing to Tokyo on the 21st of November, flight later IDd as CA925/NH5702 0930-1350.


So if they left Beijing on the morning of Nov 21st, would not they land in Hawaii on Nov 21st? With the international date line, you gain a day, ie, you get a one extra "Ground Hog Day," when going from Aisa to Hawaii. No?
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Offline DrRox

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #232 on: April 24, 2009, 06:12:59 AM »
The evening flights from Guilin to Beijing on Nov 18th were at:

CZ 3287   17:10-19:50  (5:10 pm-7:50 pm)
CA 1226   21:05-00:05 (9:05 pm-12:05 am)

Morning of Nov 19th flights were:
CZ 3281   9:00-11:25
CA 1312   11:45-14:35 (11:45 am-2:35 pm)

Since the activities appear to be all at night, that would (to me) preclude the morning flights on Nov 19th. So I think that TPTB will give us a shortened pit stop this episode, in order for the 4 teams to make the last flight to Beijing and another bunching point.

Maybe not a shorter than 12h Pit Stop, but an extended one, with teams racing Beijing I on the evening of the 19th? Gives Phil the entire day to film his exposition, and there's still enough time after that for us to complete the race.

With Mark/Michael arriving in Guilin at 8.45am and checking in half an hour behind Jaime/Cara, taking even the most generous estimates we would require the teams to have only an 8h break to be able to make the 9.05pm flight to Beijing (with 0.5h between the airport and the city, 2h for the Guilin tasks, and 0.5h check-in requirement).

So far only Stechelberg and Phuket were the standard 12h, and Bran and Novosibirsk 36's (both so Phil can get ahead).
Salzburg was ~20h for an unknown reason.
Krasnoyarsk was ~24h to bunch teams on the night train.
Jaipur was ~24h to let Phil fly one day ahead.
Bangkok was ~22h, a very calculated timing to bunch teams at the Folded Brocade Mtns.

I had thought about your scenairo, but I keep coming back to this......

a girl said her boyfriend helped the production, seemed like to be one of the local assistant.
she claimed that when her bf told her that, she instantly thought about TAR and could confirm that.

they lived in Sheraton and the pit top was Sun-Moon-Tower.
and a mountain named Di-Tsai was also visited.
They also have been to a steel factory.
It was also said teams had to go to a hair salon to wash their hair.
Phil was described very tall and handsome by her bf.

And for security reasons, all assistants have been asked to remain their position after everyone is on the plane, they left the same day.
so far, no photo evidence.

Phil could catch [CZ 3287   17:10-19:50  (5:10 pm-7:50 pm)] and have plenty of time to do his standups. I haven't checked, but I feel sure he could have made an even earlier flight to Beijing, via Shanghai, and gotten there earlier. There are a lot of flights between Shaanghai and Beijing every day. Unless that translation is wrong, it says everyone left on the evening of the 18th, if I am not mistaken. It sure seems quick to me, though.
Matthew 7:15

Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #233 on: April 24, 2009, 01:02:51 PM »
Phil likes to have an entire day ahead of the field, but there are exceptions, of course.
(Exceptions have always been on "domestic" legs, though.)

Leg One: Skipped Locarno and arrived in Interlaken a day before racers.
Leg Two: Exception. Barely ahead of racers.
Leg Three: Arrived in Bucharest in the morning while teams were held back by extended Pit Stop. Teams arrived in the evening.
Arrived in Bran that evening, while teams finished the second half of the leg and checked in mid-morning the next day.
Leg Four: 36h Pit Stop gave Phil an entire day's headstart.
Leg Five: A delayed Pit Start and a train that runs once a day gives Phil a day's headstart.
Leg Six: 36h Pit Stop gives another day's headstart to Phil.
Leg Seven: Spoilers have Phil arriving exactly one day before teams.
Leg Eight: Exception. Wasn't too far ahead. Could have arrived the night before, but Phil seldom does standups in the dark.
Leg Nine: Extended Pit Stop allows Phil to arrive in Guilin in the morning, while teams are stuck at HoO that evening.


If teams are racing on the night of the 18th after a shortened Pit Stop, Phil would only have say two hours for a lead, and he'd have to do his standups at night. It's three improbables compounded, so I'm thinking it might not be too likely? I think we're looking at:
19/11: Afternoon release for an evening Beijing I.
20/11: Daytime Beijing II, so there's a contrast between the two legs (like Delhi).
21/11: Early morning release, flights to Hawaii.
21/11 again: Arrive in Hawaii in the morning, finish by the afternoon.


Flights the next day are (Apskip and DrRox have it already, just a recap):
CZ3281 0900-1125
CA1312 1145-1435
CZ3239 / CA1368: 1200-1710 (1h10 connection in Shenzhen)
CZ3239 / CZ3189: 1200-1840 (2h35 connection in Shenzhen)
:cow 5h10min gap to snag teams :cow
CZ3287 1710-1950
CA1226 2105-0005


After all that, here's my lucky guess:
Release between 11.00am and 4.10pm on the 19th, arrival in Beijing at 7.50pm for an evening leg.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2009, 02:20:35 PM by Neobie »
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Offline apskip

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #234 on: April 24, 2009, 02:08:02 PM »
It's been one month, so it's time to have a current version of the AR14 Timeline.

AR14 Timeline(revised on 4/30):
First, a note of appreciation for Dr. Rox, who pointed out my error on legs 11 and 12 resulting in my listing Nov. 22 as the departure from Beijing when it was previously listed here in my Feb. 5 and 6 versions as Nov. 21, which is correct.
 
Oct. 31 leg 1 depart U.S. for Locarno, Switzerland via Frankfurt and Zurich or via Milan:

LAX to Milan-Malpensa(MXP) as follows: AF75 LAX CDG 1600 0930+1, connecting with AF4806 CDG MXP 1125+1 1305+1     
Here are the schedules in the same time frame:
take taxi to Chiasso, the first train station in Switzerland. Schedules to Locarno would be:
depart Chiasso 1500 arrive Locarno 1613
depart Chiasso 1533 arrive Locarno 1657
depart Chiasso 1603 arrive Locarno 1727 
 
From LAX to Zurich via Frankfurt we have the interesting combination:
LH457  LAX FRA  1535 1025+1 connecting with LH3726   FRA ZRH  1200 1255

There are 10 nonstop flights on Saturday between Frankfurt and Zurich, so if any are delayed there are alternatives.

The train schedule from Zurich to Bellinzona to Locarno indicates that 3 1/4 hours is required. Here it is:
de.Zurich 1402 arrive Arth-Goldau 1446 dep. 1448 arr. Bellinzona 1623 dep. 1630 arrive Locarno 1657

Nov. 1 arrive mid-morning in Europe and reach Locarn late afternoon afternoon; then sign up for 0715, 0730 or 0745am departures; then sleep overnight;
Nov. 2 Verzasca Dam bungee jump then Locarno to Domodossola to Spiez to Interlaken by train;
schedule for a leading team:
dep. Locarno 0903 arr. Bellinzona 0927
dep. Bellnizona 0936 arr. Lucerne 1141 via the St. Gotthard Tunnel
dep. Lucerne 1155 arr. Interlaken Ost 1355
this is nearly a 5 hour trip;

schedule for good train (taken by Brad/Victoria and lagging teams get there in time to take it):
dep. Locarno 1042 arr. Domodossola 1230
dep. Domodossola 1248 arr. Spiez 1353
dep. Spiez 1403 arr. Interlaken West 1423
total trip is 4 hours train;
other teams go earlier and get there slightly earlier(except for Christie/Jodi who get a circuitous route 1 1/4 hours hours earlier but arrive later or teams that are behind Brad/Victoria);

Interlaken tasks;
Interlaken area (Stechelberg) pit stop

Nov. 3 leg 2 Interlaken by tasi directl to Zurich airport, then plane to Salzburg:
 
From Interlaken to Munich, the early morning Monday(as in Nov.3) flights are:
LX1100 ZRH MUC 0710 0815
LX3616 ZRH MUC 0845 0945

then self-drive less than an hour to Ruhpolding
Tasks in Raushberg near Ruhpolding parasailing, 25 mile drive to Schnoau am Kongisee for tasks, then
Evening Extedned 18 hour Pit stop in Salzburg at Schloss Hellbrunn

Nov. 4  begin leg 3;
Salzburg to Bucharest starts with driving to Alzburg rail station, getting on a train to Munich and switching there to an airport train. The schedules from Salzburg  all the way to MUchich Flughafen (on average once per hour) are:

1103 1317
1152 1417
1303 1526
1314 1537
1352 1557
1441 1657
1552 1757
1617 1827
Flight choices depend on arrival at Munich Airport. Tammy/Victor initially get LH3480 1525 1825 but then it comes back with a mechanical problem.
RO312 1645 1945 is taken by 3 teams.
LH3424 2130 0025+1 is taken by everyone else except Brad/Victoria
Brad/Victoria attempt to get 15 minutes ahead of the alst group by going MUC AMS and AMS OTP but delays on the flight into Amsterdam doom them to not departing until the KLM nonstop the next morning and not arriving into Bucharest until after 1pm.

Nov. 5 arrival in Bucharest after midnight; transfer to train to get to Brasov
morning train departures: Bucharest Nord 2358 arr. Brasov 0246  or  dep. 0630 0922  or  dep. 0730 1019  or  dep. 0616 1051(note: nobody would want this) or  0830 1124  or  0942 1254  or  1130 1404

tasks in Brasov and nearby Transylvania
extended pit stop in Transylvania (includes Brasov)

Nov. 7 leg 4  leave Transylvania for Krasnojarsk, Siberia
return to Bucharest, then choice of:

TK1444  OTP IST RO261 0825 0955 connecting in Istanbul to SU208 SVO 1255 1705 

OTP SOFIA RO293 0820 0920, connecting to SOF SVO SU162 1240 1630

OTP FRA LH3417 0610 0750 or RO321 0910 1050, either connecting to SU106 FRA SVO 1405 1910 

OTP MUC LH3425 0700 0810, connecting to SU122 MUC SVO 1310 1825 

OTP IST RO261 0825 0955. connecting to TK1415 IST SVO 1335 1740,
connecting at Moscow-Sheremetyevo to SU779 SVO KJA 2055 0540+1 OR
SU781 0045+1 0910+1

Nov. 8 do tasks
pit stop

Nov. 9
leg 5 begins allowing teams to board TransSiberian Express in late afternoon
Here is the train selected by WRP from Krasnojarsk to Novosibirsk on a weekday:

Dep.  Arr.No Duration
  
18:26   06:47  12:21     
   

I have no idea why teams had to wait for the 18:26 (Moscow time like the schedule) train, which would arrive Nov. 10 around 6:47am Moscow time (947am Novosibirsk time).

Nov. 10 TransSiberian Express arrival in Novosibirsk
tasks in Novosibirsk, Siberia
Extended 24 Hour pit stop

Nov. 12 leg 6 begins
flights Novosibirsk to Jaipur:

SU810 OVB SVO 0700 0815
KC872 SVO ALA 0920 1645
KC907 ALA Delhi DEL 1805 2115;

overnight at Delhi Airport

Nov. 13
There are 5 nonstop flights from Delhi to Jaipur on Wednesdays or Thursdays (Nov. 12 or 13). They are:

9W709 0545 0630
AI9896/IC896 0605 0645
IC7809 0700 0755
IT611 0930 1010
IT 2302 1930 2030

tasks in Jaipur area
pit stop

Nov. 14 leg 7 Fly Jaipur to Phuket
From Jaipur to Phuket late on Fridays:

9W372 JAI BOM  2040 2220 connecting AI6318  BOM BKK  2320 0520+1 connecting  TG201  BKK HKT  0720+1 0840+1

Nov. 15 see above
Phuket area tasks
pit stop

Nov. 16 leg 8 fly from Phuket to Bangkok
TG226 0725 0850
tasks in Bangkok area
Extended pit stop

Nov. 18 leg 9 fly from Bangkok to Guilin:
Margie/Luke-  CZ362 BKK CAN 1120 1505 connecting to CZ3303 CAN KWL 2035 2130, with late departure and arrival
Jaime/Cara and Tammy/Victor - KQ924 BKK CAN 1315 1710  connecting to the same CZ3303
Kisha/Jen -   TG715 BKK CAN 1525  1915 connecting to Shenzhen 8627 CAN KWL 2110 2210
Mark/Michael -  CZ364 BKK CAN 1855 2230  missing the last flight to Guilin taking CZ3232 0940+1 1040+1

tasks in Guilin;
pit stop

Nov. 19 leg 10 Guilin to Beijing flight choices:
CZ3287 1710 1950

then tasks in Beijing and start TBC, leg 11
probable Hours of Operation hit almost immediately

Nov. 20
leg 11 tasks
pitstop, probably starting before noon and 12 or18 hours

Nov. 21
leg 12 return from Beijing to U.S. for Finish Line in Hawaii via Tokyo
PEK to NRT:
JL780 0825 1255
NH956 0830 1300
NW30 0900 1340
CA925 0925 1355
CA167 1325 1800
NH906 1445 1915
JL782 1520 1950
CA421 1640 2100

NRT to HNL
JO76 1845 0645+1
UA880 1945 0736+1
NW30 2000 0805  Note that this is a continuation of the ealier flight from PEK to NRT with 6 hour 20 minute layover
NW22 2055 0845+1
NH1052 2055 0915+1
JO74 2100 0900+1
JO72 2200 0950+1

With the 6 hours 45 minute flying team and 5 hour time difference, these flights arrive HNL 0630 to 0950. The most logical choice to me would be UA880 NRT HNL 1925 0710+1. All these are same day due to crossing the International Date Line.

Finish Line on Maui, so teams will take a 36 or 37 minute flight Honolulu to Kahului.  There is at least one every hour from 5am to 9pm and several in some hours.
tasks
Finish Line

Note: this is a 22 day race.
 
« Last Edit: April 30, 2009, 04:57:13 PM by apskip »


Offline apskip

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #235 on: April 24, 2009, 02:10:20 PM »

We were flying on an Air China/ANA code share from Beijing to Tokyo on the 21st of November, flight later IDd as CA925/NH5702 0930-1350.


So if they left Beijing on the morning of Nov 21st, would not they land in Hawaii on Nov 21st? With the international date line, you gain a day, ie, you get a one extra "Ground Hog Day," when going from Aisa to Hawaii. No?
Yes, of course you have it right. However, who says that they leave Nov. 22 from Beijing? Previous information put them departing (which would also mean landing) on Saturday Nov. 22.

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #236 on: April 24, 2009, 04:10:36 PM »

We were flying on an Air China/ANA code share from Beijing to Tokyo on the 21st of November, flight later IDd as CA925/NH5702 0930-1350.


So if they left Beijing on the morning of Nov 21st, would not they land in Hawaii on Nov 21st? With the international date line, you gain a day, ie, you get a one extra "Ground Hog Day," when going from Aisa to Hawaii. No?
Yes, of course you have it right. However, who says that they leave Nov. 22 from Beijing? Previous information put them departing (which would also mean landing) on Saturday Nov. 22.

As far as I know, you, apskip, are the only one that says they left on Nov 22nd. The blogger/spoiler says she was on the same flight with J/C and M/L on Nov 21st. After you go back and read Peach's post about her correspondence with the blogger, I guess you can always go back and "edit" all your timelines to match the Nov 21st departure from Beijing.
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Offline apskip

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #237 on: April 24, 2009, 04:30:14 PM »
Dr. Rox, as you may or may not know, I do not change Timelines to incorporate new pieces of "insider information" until I am darned well convinced that it is foolish not to. I did so for date of the Bangkok leg after there was enough evidence to make it quite likely that that was correct. I did the same on 1 vs. 2 legs in Switzerland.  I am nowhere close to that on the question of Nov. 21 vs. Nov. 22. I believe the only relevant issue is the amount of above-12 hour (extended) pitstop time between starting the Guilin pitstop and leaving Beijing.

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #238 on: April 24, 2009, 04:38:13 PM »
I think apskip has the 22 day race correct. 10/31 + 21 days in November.

But the Nov 21 flight date comes from a very accurate source...

And more to the point, we already have the finale date and location confirmed: (100%)

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,17788.msg380845.html#msg380845
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline apskip

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #239 on: April 24, 2009, 07:04:58 PM »

We were flying on an Air China/ANA code share from Beijing to Tokyo on the 21st of November, flight later IDd as CA925/NH5702 0930-1350.


So if they left Beijing on the morning of Nov 21st, would not they land in Hawaii on Nov 21st? With the international date line, you gain a day, ie, you get a one extra "Ground Hog Day," when going from Aisa to Hawaii. No?
Yes, of course you have it right. However, who says that they leave Nov. 22 from Beijing? Previous information put them departing (which would also mean landing) on Saturday Nov. 22.

As far as I know, you, apskip, are the only one that says they left on Nov 22nd. The blogger/spoiler says she was on the same flight with J/C and M/L on Nov 21st. After you go back and read Peach's post about her correspondence with the blogger, I guess you can always go back and "edit" all your timelines to match the Nov 21st departure from Beijing.

OK, so I traced my Timelines back for Feb. 6, which had the following:
Quote
Nov. 18 leg 10 fly probably form Bangkok to to Guilin
 Shenzen Air 9669 BKK CAN 2110 2225. The viable CAN KWL flights are TG668 0950 1330 and MS958 1310 1655.  
tasks in Guilin area
extended pit stop

Nov. 20 leg 11 Guilin to Beijing flight choices:
CZ3281 0900 1125
CA6312 1145 1435
CZ3287 1710 1950
CA1226 2105 0015

then tasks in Beijing and start regular pitstop

Nov. 21 leg 12 return from Beijing to U.S. for Finish Line in Hawaii via Tokyo
PEK NRT on Air China has several choices:
CA6651/NH956 0845 1305
CA925               0930 1350
CA167               1350 1750

Continuing on from Tokyo-Narita to Honolulu (NRT to HNL), there are 9 choices with departures between 645pm and 10pm. With the 6 hours 45 minute flying team and 5 hour time difference, these flights arrive HNL 0630 to 0950. The most logical choice to me would be UA880 NRT HNL 1925 0710+1. All these are same day due to crossing the International Date Line.

                        Finish Line on which Hawaiian island not known yet although I guess Oahu now for convenience

Note: this is a 22 day race.

My timelines of 2/5 AND 2/6 incorporated the change to 22 days and to Nov. 21. I somehow copied an earlier version when I revised it on 2/13 and that has been promulgated for the last 70 days. So the Nov. 21 version is in fact right. I will be revising the timeline revision just issued to bring it back to what it should have been over this period. The extended pitstop may be in either Guilin or Beijing. it depends on when teams fly from Guilin to Beijing.

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Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #240 on: April 24, 2009, 11:43:28 PM »
We've previously established that Beijing II was not a 36h Pit Stop. Here's why I think it was 12h and no more.
(Might be useful when we start guessing the arrival times for Beijing II.)

The following analysis assumes:
- It takes at least 5min to complete a leg.
- Pit Stops are never less than 12h.
- LaKisha/Jennifer are not hours behind in Beijing I.

Finding the earliest possible time the final leg starts:
1. If the Guilin Pit Stop is not shortened, Beijing I takes place on the 19th.
2. Kisha/Jen are still racing after sunset at 4.59pm.
3. Checking in after that time means a Beijing II start after 4.59am on the 20th.
4. Beijing II has to end after 5.04am (more likely around midday though).
5. Final leg begins after 5.04pm on the 20th.

Regarding the Beijing II Pit Stop:
6. Jaime/Cara/Margie/Luke catch CA925 (0930-1350) the next day to Tokyo.
7. There are no better flights between 5.04pm on the 20th and 9.30am on the 21st.
8. A Pit Stop delay can't help Phil get ahead, and may even cause de-bunching.
9. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a time extension at the Beijing II Pit Stop.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2009, 07:51:27 AM by Neobie »
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Offline apskip

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #241 on: April 25, 2009, 08:38:25 AM »
We've previously established that Beijing II was not a 36h Pit Stop. Here's why I think it was 12h and no more.
(Might be useful when we start guessing the arrival times for Beijing II.)

The following analysis assumes:
- It takes at least 5min to complete a leg.
- Pit Stops are never less than 12h.
- LaKisha/Jennifer are not hours behind in Beijing I.

Finding the earliest possible time the final leg starts:
1. If the Guilin Pit Stop is not shortened, Beijing I takes place on the 19th.
2. Kisha/Jen are still racing after sunset at 4.59pm.
3. Checking in after that time means a Beijing II start after 4.59am on the 20th.
4. Beijing II has to end after 5.04am (more likely around midday though).
5. Final leg begins after 5.04pm on the 20th.

Regarding the Beijing II Pit Stop:
6. Jaime/Cara/Margie/Luke catch CA925 (0930-1350) the next day to Tokyo.
7. There are no better flights between 5.04pm on the 20th and 9.30am on the 21st.
8. A Pit Stop delay can't help Phil get ahead, and may even cause de-bunching.
9. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a time extension at the Beijing II Pit Stop.

Neobie:

Let's start with one of your fundamental premises: "Pitstops are never less than 12 hours."  What happened with the pit stop after the second Moscow leg in AR13? It was at most 7 hours. World Race Productions makes thing fit, even if it means breaking their usual policies. 12 hours or more pit stops is a policy, not a law of the Amazing Race. However, I will be assuming that it is at least 12 hours and see if that works.

Your 5 minute minimum leg time assumption is of course as absurb as you meant it to be. Without a FAST FORWARD, leg completion times are seldom less than 90 minutes for the fastest legs. I will use 2 hours as the minimum in this analysis.

So here is my attempt at making things fit, assuming there is no TBC:
1. We start with the fact that there must be leg 10 on Nov. 19, leg 11 on Nov. 20 and leg 12 starting Nov. 21, all in the Beijing area once the flight from Guilin happens. The departure from PEK must be no later than 1800 and most likely will be a morning flight because WRP always wants the earliest possible arrival to the finish line city(or in this case island).Those flights are:

JL780 0825 1255
NH956 0830 1300
NW30 0900 1340
CA925 0925 1355

2. In order to get a 825am departure, there should be about a leg completion time of 630pm on Nov. 20 with a 12 hour pit stop. Assume at least 2 hours for a leg and you get 430pm or earlier as the beginning of leg 11.

3. Now assume another 12 hour pit stop in front of that and you get a leg 10 completion time of earlier than 430pm on Nov. 19.

4. That means that all teams must be on one of the two morning flights from Guilin to Beijing:
CZ3281 0900 1125
CA6312 1145 1435

With a minimum 2 hour leg time, the latter is barely possible, so I believe that all teams will be on CZ3281.

5. In order to make it for a 9am departure, teams will have to be released from the Guilin pitstop before 7am on Nov. 19. that appears to be easy, as all should have completed leg 9 before noon.

I think I will modify the Timeline as needed to conform to this analysis.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2009, 04:38:38 PM by apskip »

Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #242 on: April 25, 2009, 09:22:08 AM »
2. In order to get a 825am departure, there should be about a leg completion time of 630pm on Nov. 20 with a 12 hour pit stop. Assume at least 2 hours for a leg and you get 430am or earlier as the beginning of leg 11.

Aah, I think you added 12 hours accidentally there! You mean 4.30pm or earlier as the beginning of Leg 11, don't you?

Let's start with one of your fundamental premises: "Pitstops are never less than 12 hours."  What happened with the pit stop after the second Moscow leg in AR13? It was at most 7 hours. World Race Productions makes thing fit, even if it means breaking their usual policies. 12 more or mroe pit stops is a policy, not a law of the Amazing Race. However, I will be assuming that it is at least 12 hours and see if that works.

Darn, you might be right! Ken and Tina were released at 3.30am. Don't think it was as short as 7h (3.30am - 7h = 8.30pm), but maybe something like a 9 to 11h Pit Stop to make sure they catch the 7.05am flight to Portland? (According to Robyn they arrived between 4.30pm and 6.30pm.)

Looks like a "desperate measures for desperate times" kind of thing. (Can you imagine Nick/Starr racing with only Dandrew in the finals?) Would they break the "policy" only for final legs? This flexibility they're giving themselves is gonna hurt our calculations!



Back to Beijing, we know that Phil couldn't catch JL782/JO72 (1530-0930) on the 20th, which would have got him to Hawaii one day ahead. The Pit Stop's got to be in the afternoon or night of the 20th.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2009, 06:03:08 AM by Neobie »
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Offline apskip

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #243 on: April 26, 2009, 07:07:17 AM »
Neobie, we cannot absolutely say that Phil after his Nov. 20 probably early afternoon pit stop could not catch  CA421 PEK NRT 1640 2100 and make a connection to JO72 NRT HNL 2200 (half hour later than you show) 1000+1. What I can say is that a 60 minute connection in Narita is very tight.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #244 on: April 26, 2009, 07:33:45 AM »
Neobie, we cannot absolutely say that Phil after his Nov. 20 probably early afternoon pit stop could not catch  CA421 PEK NRT 1640 2100 and make a connection to JO72 NRT HNL 2200 (half hour later than you show) 1000+1. What I can say is that a 60 minute connection in Narita is very tight.

Why can't we absolutely say that? We already KNOW that Phil is seen in Tokyo (Narita) airport on 11/21 sometime after CA925/NH5702 0930-1350 landed.


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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #245 on: April 26, 2009, 10:42:05 AM »

2. Kisha/Jen are still racing after sunset at 4.59pm.
3. Checking in after that time means a Beijing II start after 4.59am on the 20th.
.

I'm lost again...

Can you link me to the info showing K/J racing in Beijing first ep at this time please? ???
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Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #246 on: April 26, 2009, 11:05:23 AM »
Can you link me to the info showing K/J racing in Beijing first ep [after 4.59am on the 20th] please?

Mark and Michael arrived in Guilin at 8.45am and finished two hours after Jaime/Cara, and we've been told they could possibly have only been 45min behind had they not been bumbling around. So let's say they wasted 1h15min, giving them an earliest possible check-in time of 10.30am (8.45am + 1h15min wasted + 30min for just the taxi ride into town). This translates to an earliest possible check-in of 8.30am for Jaime/Cara.

The last flight to Beijing leaves at 9.05pm, and assuming a 12h or longer Pit Stop, Jaime/Cara would not be able to make that flight. The Beijing I leg starts proper on the 20th at the earliest.



Here we have skylights leading out to the black sky... and the earliest time this could happen would be after sunset, on the 20th?
« Last Edit: April 26, 2009, 11:30:13 AM by Neobie »
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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #247 on: April 26, 2009, 11:37:10 AM »
I understand all that part Neobie, but thanks for spelling it out.

What I can't find is the link to Kisha/Jen racing in Beijing at 459AM, that's what I am missing, if you can please help me with that too? Why 459?? Is that based on when you think they arrive, a flight arrival, a look at a watch, what? I am drawing a blank here :lol:
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #248 on: April 26, 2009, 11:39:07 AM »
D'oh, sorry! That's the time for sunset in Beijing on the 20th, and Jen/Kisha are obviously still racing after that time.
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Offline Neobie

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Re: AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information
« Reply #249 on: April 26, 2009, 10:53:12 PM »
We had pretty good shots of the clock in the swimming complex - here's the times I think they finished:

Jaime/Cara: 10.30pm
Margie/Luke: 10.32pm
Tammy/Victor: 10.50pm
LaKisha/Jennifer: 11.20pm

Which means we're almost definitely getting an Hours of Operation next episode, right?
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!


 

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